Augie Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, John in Jax said: How come Florida’s numbers aren’t exploding like everybody in here thought they would, you know, what with that irresponsible Governor who waited forever to close down the beaches and bars? In addition, Florida has TONS of old/high risk people living here; that can’t help matters. I’m confused. All the spring breakers went back to where they came from. I saw an amazing graphic from one small section of beach around Ft Lauderdale and they tracked their phones back to the Midwest and northeast. I don’t care where you stand on this, that shows how stuff spreads!
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 8, 2020 Author Posted April 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Sundancer said: Yesterday's numbers in Spain and Italy continue the long, long, long period of level numbers in those countries. I thought the deaths would level and then drop. That hasn't happened. Level has come and hung on for almost 17 days now. The UK climbs. In the US, we had a giant spike yesterday to nearly but not quite 2000 deaths, and are well on our way to a similar outcome today. It was a broad jump with many states showing big leaps. CT, MI, MA, LA, IL, GA all popping up as it appears NY and NJ will not be the only hotspots as we had hoped. GA and MA, which closed very late, have been surging. Sundancer, a point to remember is that covid-19 patients who are infected may take 1-2 weeks to worsen to the point where they need hospitalization; once hospitalized, if ICU care is available, they may need 2-4 weeks to either recover, or die. So it's going to take probably a good month for the death rate in regions with a contained epidemic to drop. 1
Bad Things Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 2 hours ago, John in Jax said: Does the fact that they have LESS THAN 5 million people in the whole country mean anything? Is there anywhere in their country that approaches the population density close to what we have in our larger cities? (Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, Dunedin.) That said, the number #1 reason we are (hopefully) showing positive signs is because of the decisive actions our Prime Minister and government took to close the border and lockdown the country. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 8, 2020 Author Posted April 8, 2020 8 hours ago, John in Jax said: LOL So not sure why some of y’all in here are going to great lengths to try and shoot down this drug (I have an idea though), but since I have been locked up at home, I have watched (& read online) a LOT of coverage about this matter, and the overwhelming “anecdotal” evidence is that it is helping WAY more people than hurting them. In fact, I haven’t seen ANY reports of it actually hurting somebody....of someone having a serious side effect. If you’re in a bad situation because you’ve contracted the virus, and the choice is between taking this drug to see if it helps you OR not taking it, the answer seems to be very clear. But yeah, don’t eat fish tank cleaner, and of course consult with you doctor before taking it. John, this is of a piece with your stuff about not believing we're really running short of ventilators and ICU beds. You haven't seen any reports of chloroquine actually hurting anyone or having a serious side effect - therefore, because of anecdotal reports, you think it's great. Yet both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are well established to have a significant percentage of serious side effects, including severe cardiac adverse events. They exist. They're well known. They don't fail to occur because John in Jax or anyone else hasn't heard of them. These drugs also cause more frequent, less serious, but still significant adverse events. Common adverse events include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, ringing in the ears, and severe itching/hives. One can't decide that a drug is "helping way more people than it is hurting" based on anecdotal evidence, especially when using it to treat a disease that is thought to have something like a 1% death rate when medical care is not limited, and where the vast majority of patients recover without any therapy whatsoever. That is the reason why to medical professionals (independent of their political views) anecdotal evidence is NEVER overwhelming. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 8, 2020 Author Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Gray Beard said: I feel that these statistics are very misleading. New York has tested a much higher number of people. The official case numbers and death numbers are based on people who were tested. More people need to be tested, and maybe there should be a category of “probable” cases or deaths, based on symptoms rather than test results. The overall death statistics for this year compared to previous years paint a much more grim picture, in Europe as well as in the US. It’s also hard to know how many cases there really are since so many of the people who get it never even tell a doctor, let alone get tested. I know we sound like a broken record, but until the antibody tests are universally available, the true nature of the beast will not be accurately understood. This. I've said this elsewhere but just between my daughter and friends, we know of 10 people in Ithaca who have symptoms consistent with covid-19 and are not being tested, despite Ithaca having plentiful tests and an open and functional drive-thru test center. These kids don't have cars, don't want to climb in a car with a friend and potentially make that friend sick, and the testing option available to them is triaging them out. Plenty more. We need serology (antibody) testing. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 8, 2020 Author Posted April 8, 2020 10 hours ago, John in Jax said: Quoted from the story above: “I ran a floor of COVID-19 positive patients with severe symptoms. Our team used the combo of hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin and it seemed to help! Of the patients that I treated for these four days who where acutely ill — all ages and health conditions — most (loosely defined and footnoted) seemed to improve and were able to be discharged home. I can say that I transferred no one to the ICU but I sent many people home.“ So yet ANOTHER testimonial for hydroxychloroquine! That’s good news. I’m glad that doctors are using it, and didn’t listen to idiotic talking heads on TV who were badmouthing it for days on end. You left out the part about "Would they have responded without? I don’t know." 1
Bad Things Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 FYI - The daily White House briefing is just about to begin.
Saxum Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bad Things said: FYI - The daily White House briefing is just about to begin. i am depressed enough working at home and seeing death tolls.
BillsFan4 Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 https://www.nap.edu/read/25771/chapter/1 Expert consultation on virus survival in relation to temperature and humidity. From about a dozen members of the Academies' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. Translation: maybe it will die off with summer, and maybe it won't, but even if it will eventually, while it's a pandemic it may not.
Gray Beard Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 Any COBOL programmers out there? https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/business/coronavirus-cobol-programmers-new-jersey-trnd/index.html
Augie Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 My Self-Isolation Quarantine Diary: Day 1 – I Can Do This!! Got enough food and wine to last a month! Day 2 – Opening my 8th bottle of Wine. I fear wine supplies might not last Day 3 – Strawberries: Some have 210 seeds, some have 235 seeds. Who Knew?? Day 4 – 8:00pm. Removed my Day Pajamas and put on my Night Pajamas. Day 5 – Today, I tried to make Hand Sanitizer. It came out as Jello Shots!! Day 6 – I get to take the Garbage out. I’m So excited, I can’t decide what to wear. Day 7 – Laughing way too much at my own jokes!! Day 8 – Went to a new restaurant called “The Kitchen”. You have to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal. I have No clue how this place is still in business. Day 9 – I put liquor bottles in every room. Tonight, I’m getting all dressed up and going Bar hopping. Day 10 – Struck up a conversation with a Spider today. Seems nice. He’s a Web Designer. Day 11 – Isolation is hard. I swear my fridge just said, “What the hell do you want now?” Day 12 – I realized why dogs get so excited about something moving outside, going for walks or car rides. I think I just barked at a squirrel. Day 13 – If you keep a glass of wine in each hand, you can’t accidently touch your face. Day 14 – Watched the birds fight over a worm. The Cardinals led the Blue Jays 3–1. Day 15 – Anybody else feel like they’ve cooked dinner about 395 times this month? 2 4
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 9, 2020 Author Posted April 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, Augie said: My Self-Isolation Quarantine Diary: Day 1 – I Can Do This!! Got enough food and wine to last a month! Day 2 – Opening my 8th bottle of Wine. I fear wine supplies might not last Day 3 – Strawberries: Some have 210 seeds, some have 235 seeds. Who Knew?? Day 4 – 8:00pm. Removed my Day Pajamas and put on my Night Pajamas. Day 5 – Today, I tried to make Hand Sanitizer. It came out as Jello Shots!! Day 6 – I get to take the Garbage out. I’m So excited, I can’t decide what to wear. Day 7 – Laughing way too much at my own jokes!! Day 8 – Went to a new restaurant called “The Kitchen”. You have to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal. I have No clue how this place is still in business. Day 9 – I put liquor bottles in every room. Tonight, I’m getting all dressed up and going Bar hopping. Day 10 – Struck up a conversation with a Spider today. Seems nice. He’s a Web Designer. Day 11 – Isolation is hard. I swear my fridge just said, “What the hell do you want now?” Day 12 – I realized why dogs get so excited about something moving outside, going for walks or car rides. I think I just barked at a squirrel. Day 13 – If you keep a glass of wine in each hand, you can’t accidently touch your face. Day 14 – Watched the birds fight over a worm. The Cardinals led the Blue Jays 3–1. Day 15 – Anybody else feel like they’ve cooked dinner about 395 times this month? I like the advice in Day 13 Written for Passover but applies to any social gathering just now: 1
Sundancer Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Sundancer, a point to remember is that covid-19 patients who are infected may take 1-2 weeks to worsen to the point where they need hospitalization; once hospitalized, if ICU care is available, they may need 2-4 weeks to either recover, or die. So it's going to take probably a good month for the death rate in regions with a contained epidemic to drop. For sure. The fatalities dropping is the last number that will go down. Is not predictive at all. It is the last number that will reflect the results of our distancing. But in spite of its accuracy issues, it is maybe the most reliable data point for how this is progressing. There is very little to trust in case counting, for all the reasons people mention here. I watch it, but only the grossest movements in the case counts are noteworthy. For example in Italy, there has been a definite drop in new cases. That is very good and should proceed the death drop by a few weeks. Edited April 9, 2020 by Sundancer
Augie Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I like the advice in Day 13 Written for Passover but applies to any social gathering just now: I’m a day 13 kinda guy myself. My wife likes day 4. Day 2 gives me shivers but we know what “essential” means! My son likes day 5, and his fiancé thought dat 9 seemed like fun! There may be a theme here.....tough times! . Edited April 9, 2020 by Augie
BillsFan4 Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829955099/federal-support-for-coronavirus-testing-sites-end-as-peak-nears Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears Another article on this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/07/testing-coronavirus-trump/ Not sure what this means for the hopes of a national testing and tracing program. Edited April 9, 2020 by BillsFan4
Kevbeau Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Augie said: Day 15 – Anybody else feel like they’ve cooked dinner about 395 times this month? I said to my wife tonight. “Why does it seem like the dishwasher is always running?” 3
Augie Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kevbeau said: I said to my wife tonight. “Why does it seem like the dishwasher is always running?” My typical routine is out for lunch 6-7 days a week, then go to shop for dinner that night. That puts me at the grocery store pretty much daily. This has made a MESS of my routine, and WAY more dishes than I’m used to. I’d be afraid to say how much I’ve saved in lunches in the last 5 weeks, and how much that has hurt local establishments and servers. And I’m just one guy. This is hurting people, and I can’t wait to crawl back to “normal” so the pain can start to ease.
BillsFan4 Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) New report on distribution of the national stockpile: https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-releases/new-document-shows-inadequate-distribution-of-personal-protective-equipment-and “New Document Shows Inadequate Distribution of Personal Protective Equipment and Critical Medical Supplies to States” Edited April 9, 2020 by BillsFan4
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 9, 2020 Author Posted April 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829955099/federal-support-for-coronavirus-testing-sites-end-as-peak-nears Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears Another article on this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/07/testing-coronavirus-trump/ Not sure what this means for the hopes of a national testing and tracing program. Especially with wildly disparate abilities of state funding and labs in different parts of the country, this seems like a big mistake. We need more testing, not less! 2
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