BillsFan4 Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 This all still feels like a bad dream or something. 1
Figster Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Is everyone's "stay at home" order the same? For example: Living in Hawai'i we have one in place through at least April 30th (I think almost certainly to be extended), but for "essential activities." So, do "essential activities" vary by state? My wife and I went for 2 separate hour long walks over the weekend, one to the local Foodland to pick up a few things. I went surfing this morning because surfing is allowed as long as you maintain "social distancing" and then went to Costco because the line wasn't out the door today. These things are allowed and are not against state mandates. Of course, in Foodland and Costco everyone was staying away from each other--will there be some long term effects societally because of this "social distancing" we're required to do? So... are these the types of things allowed where all the other "shelter in place" orders are? Are they more strict? Less strict? Should the orders here be more strict? Less strict? Genuinely curious because I think this country should probably just have an across-the-board order for every citizen at this point. You lucky dog
Jrb1979 Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Is everyone's "stay at home" order the same? For example: Living in Hawai'i we have one in place through at least April 30th (I think almost certainly to be extended), but for "essential activities." So, do "essential activities" vary by state? My wife and I went for 2 separate hour long walks over the weekend, one to the local Foodland to pick up a few things. I went surfing this morning because surfing is allowed as long as you maintain "social distancing" and then went to Costco because the line wasn't out the door today. These things are allowed and are not against state mandates. Of course, in Foodland and Costco everyone was staying away from each other--will there be some long term effects societally because of this "social distancing" we're required to do? So... are these the types of things allowed where all the other "shelter in place" orders are? Are they more strict? Less strict? Should the orders here be more strict? Less strict? Genuinely curious because I think this country should probably just have an across-the-board order for every citizen at this point. Here in Canada every province is pretty much on the same page. They have been telling people to stay home unless you need to go out. The only reason you should have to go out is for groceries and work. They have been closing all parks and public areas trying to get people to stay home. While most are listening, a lot were still going to the beach and parks for walks. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: Here in Canada every province is pretty much on the same page. They have been telling people to stay home unless you need to go out. The only reason you should have to go out is for groceries and work. They have been closing all parks and public areas trying to get people to stay home. While most are listening, a lot were still going to the beach and parks for walks. So they told you no walks? No outdoor exercise? Honestly, I am so much safer in the water surfing than I am in ANY grocery store. I feel like anyone on an outdoor walk is, too. 1
Sundancer Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: So they told you no walks? No outdoor exercise? Honestly, I am so much safer in the water surfing than I am in ANY grocery store. I feel like anyone on an outdoor walk is, too. Exercise outdoors allowed. Also walking dogs. Edited March 31, 2020 by Sundancer
Sundancer Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, SDS said: Been thinking about supply chains a lot. No one is supposed to panic because grocery stores are open, but clearly there’s going to be a time in certain places where the grocery store workers say it’s not worth it. I am not sure how we avoid a panic as it gets worse. With as many people out of work as there are, grocery worker jobs should be fine. I don't see the food part of our supply chain being a problem, though I think we are likely to keep seeing shortages of certain items, especially those that come from other countries and/or are more dependent on seasonal migrant labor (someone posted a Mother Jones article about this last point somewhere here). My bigger concern for society is the long term effect on the economy. That will last unless we get a nationally coordinated plan on place to test and track asap. The admin refuses to nationally institute a plan or any tracking talk. Not turning this to politics specifically but more looking to solutions, and that still seems the only practical long term path out. (MA and FL, which closed very late are seeing spikes now they could have avoided absent stubborn governors). Edited March 31, 2020 by Sundancer
ALF Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 8 hours ago, SDS said: Been thinking about supply chains a lot. No one is supposed to panic because grocery stores are open, but clearly there’s going to be a time in certain places where the grocery store workers say it’s not worth it. I am not sure how we avoid a panic as it gets worse. In a worse case scenario they could close grocery stores to customers and go to instacart only to deliver prepaid and leave by customer door. Call customer just as it arrives. They would have to raise the pay for instacart workers to make it worth it to them.
Sundancer Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) Interesting article today in the NY Times tracking trends in fevers from a company that sells thermometers that upload their data to the web. Social distancing orders and closures have had a measurable effect on their data nationwide with fever trends declining everywhere. This is not just covid but every other fever. It's a great data point, not that we need more, about the effectiveness of distancing. But also a great data point about the need for more data and tracking. This kind of data would be a great predictor of regional outbreak. The company maps and trends are here. Edit: Ha. Hapless beat me to it while I slept. Well it can be discussed here. Edited March 31, 2020 by Sundancer 1
Sundancer Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 Continued daily data on US, Italy, and Spain (for now). Leveling in Italy continues to look like a real trend (being level on daily deaths is *not* great...but it's at least better). US and Spain haven't been level yet for long enough to indicate a real trend.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 31, 2020 Author Posted March 31, 2020 4 hours ago, ALF said: In a worse case scenario they could close grocery stores to customers and go to instacart only to deliver prepaid and leave by customer door. Call customer just as it arrives. They would have to raise the pay for instacart workers to make it worth it to them. The problem with Instacart is that you have to have internet access (cellular internet included) and a computer or smartphone to use it. A lot of elders, such as my mom, do not have this or do not know how to use it if the do. (My mom has internet to support her Caption Call phone for hearing impaired, and we gave her a smartphone - she struggles to read and send texts or make phone calls, much less use an app) That would also pretty much give Instacart a monopoly. I do understand your point about order online/by phone pick up in store, but I'd like to see something like temperature checks at door/mask and glove use for employees and customers tried first.
SDS Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 5 hours ago, ALF said: In a worse case scenario they could close grocery stores to customers and go to instacart only to deliver prepaid and leave by customer door. Call customer just as it arrives. They would have to raise the pay for instacart workers to make it worth it to them. additionally, it’s not apparent how scalable this is. A careless calculation says if you take the number of US households, and assume every household gets their food delivered, assume they get it once per week, assuming grocery store is open 16 hours a day, assume one worker can check out 16 people per day… You would need 1 million workers working 8 hours a day seven days a week. Edit: I made a mistake
Foxx Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, SDS said: Been thinking about supply chains a lot. No one is supposed to panic because grocery stores are open, but clearly there’s going to be a time in certain places where the grocery store workers say it’s not worth it. I am not sure how we avoid a panic as it gets worse. 14 hours ago, SDS said: My point is 330 Americans depend on food and a much smaller amount will depend on healthcare. Everything starts with water, then food then other things. It’s just my opinion, but the reaction to this pandemic is nothing until it touches the food supply. When that happens all hell will break loose. All hell. just my two satoshi's here... i have been on this since the pandemic was only thought to be an epidemic. most all aspects of our society exists on the just in time system. whereas, the supply system closely coincides with consumption of goods and services. if you change one component in the equation, you begin to stress other factors. we already have seen stresses on that JIT system showing up as empty shelves in the grocery stores. shutting down society to have 'nonessential' people 'stay at home' is only putting more stress on this JIT system. from the fields to the dinner table, from the oceans to the markets, from the warehouses to the truckers, there are so many facets of the perishable network that are interconnected, pulling too many Jinga blocks out from the tower will collapse it. what is deemed nonessential today is tomorrow's critical need. we will not survive a shut down that goes into June. hell, i don't know we will survive one that goes into May. Edited March 31, 2020 by Foxx 1
Mr Info Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, SDS said: additionally, it’s not apparent how scalable this is. This is my observation over the last few days at grocery stores & quick stops. imo, Wawa has their act together. They were the first that I noticed to place plexiglass in front of their cashiers. They used to have donuts, etc. in their displays all together but now each one is wrapped. The one closest to me closes 2-3 am for a thorough cleaning. In my observation their workers appear to be responsibly following good safety procedures. i do not observe the same situation yet in grocery stores. I am fine to pick up my essentials at Wawa for a period of time if grocery stores shut because of poor policies for employee safety. Edited March 31, 2020 by Mr Info
Jrb1979 Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: So they told you no walks? No outdoor exercise? Honestly, I am so much safer in the water surfing than I am in ANY grocery store. I feel like anyone on an outdoor walk is, too. You can go for walks and have outdoor exercise but in your neighborhood The problem was and still is in some spots is too many people were going to the parks. Unless the park is near your house you would have to drive to them. That would mean it's non-essential travel.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 31, 2020 Author Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: You can go for walks and have outdoor exercise but in your neighborhood The problem was and still is in some spots is too many people were going to the parks. Unless the park is near your house you would have to drive to them. That would mean it's non-essential travel. It's a balancing act, for sure. Driving isn't banned here and while some counties are locked down, neighboring counties are not. State and city parks are explicitly open for exercise following the rules of "social distancing". Playgrounds, dog parks, and playing fields are closed. Dog park gates are locked, and playgrounds are festooned with yellow "do not cross" tape. Playing fields..... We are predominantly walking in parks and on paths away from our house for {reasons} right now (nothing against the neighborhood - love the neighborhood). Usually on our walks, we see maybe 1-2 dozen people. Most are biking, running or walking as individuals or in family units, often with a dog. We see parents tossing frisbees or playing t-ball with their kids. Most people on trails or paths either step aside off the path and wait, or pause while we step aside, to give adequate distance if the path itself doesn't provide it. But every time we go, we do see 1-2 groups of people that don't seem related - 2 girls of very different hair and skin color kicking a soccer ball around, a group of 6 (looked like 2 family groups) practicing softball, 2 pregnant women hiking with 2 little girls of very different appearance, a group of 6 boys with 1 adult sliding and splashing in a pool above the Falls (this was in a county that is NOT locked down, but adjacent to one that is, and swimming is prohibited there anyway). We hope these people live together or are part of an extended family unit in regular contact, and not continued networks of contact between families who live separately (which would dilute the impact of social distancing). And of course, the degree of contact varies. It would suck to have to close all the parks to the majority of the users who are clearly respecting social distancing for the maybe 5% who are "pushing it" EDIT: As of today, a handful of popular MO State Parks close to major cities have been closed because people were not respecting social distancing in them. Only a matter of time for the rest, I guess.
Jrb1979 Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: It's a balancing act, for sure. Driving isn't banned here and while some counties are locked down, neighboring counties are not. State and city parks are explicitly open for exercise following the rules of "social distancing". Playgrounds, dog parks, and playing fields are closed. Dog park gates are locked, and playgrounds are festooned with yellow "do not cross" tape. Playing fields..... We are predominantly walking in parks and on paths away from our house for {reasons} right now (nothing against the neighborhood - love the neighborhood). Usually on our walks, we see maybe 1-2 dozen people. Most are biking, running or walking as individuals or in family units, often with a dog. We see parents tossing frisbees or playing t-ball with their kids. Most people on trails or paths either step aside off the path and wait, or pause while we step aside, to give adequate distance if the path itself doesn't provide it. But every time we go, we do see 1-2 groups of people that don't seem related - 2 girls of very different hair and skin color kicking a soccer ball around, a group of 6 (looked like 2 family groups) practicing softball, 2 pregnant women hiking with 2 little girls of very different appearance, a group of 6 boys with 1 adult sliding and splashing in a pool above the Falls (this was in a county that is NOT locked down, but adjacent to one that is, and swimming is prohibited there anyway). We hope these people live together or are part of an extended family unit in regular contact, and not continued networks of contact between families who live separately (which would dilute the impact of social distancing). And of course, the degree of contact varies. It would suck to have to close all the parks to the majority of the users who are clearly respecting social distancing for the maybe 5% who are "pushing it" It does suck but Ontario just closed all parks, sports fields and all outdoor recreational facilities. Now they limited gatherings to 5 here so they had to do it. Too many people think this is nothing.
John in Jax Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: And I hope to heck you don't disagree with me that N95 masks should be prioritized to health care workers or that they are ineffective unless properly fitted and fit-checked. Not sure where this idea is coming from that an N95 PAPER/fiber mask can be fit-tested....it can't, because, well, it's made of a paper/fiber material and there's absolutely no way on earth you'd be able to get a "perfect seal", as you would with a full-size, no kidding, rubber respirator mask (will have a chewing tobacco sized "can" on either side of the mask & adjustable straps; the cans are the actual air filters which will filter out 100% of toxic gases). To work properly, the latter MUST be fit-tested by a doctor, and you must have no facial hair in order to get a impenetrable seal. Of course they are MUCH more expensive than the PAPER N95 masks, but they will literally save your life in a toxic gas situation. Source: Have worked in construction for 20+ years, and have used those white N95 paper/fiber dust masks for 20+ years. The same masks that health care workers are now clamoring for. The same masks that have two non-adjustable elastic bands on them, which go around your head, and pull the mask tight to your face. Of course, depending on how fat your head is, that will determine on how tight the mask is on your face. And again, even if it feels super tight, you won't have a perfect seal. Finally, I'd be willing to bet that if a covid-19 carrier coughed or sneezed directly on your N95 mask, and you kept it on, and kept breathing, you'd probably get the virus. Note: not absolutely sure on the latter; it really depends on how small/big the covid-19 particles are. As a example, the N95 mask will NOT protect you from crystalline silica particles (when concrete, tile, quartz, etc. gets cut and you're right there next to it), because those particles are too small, and they come through the mask. [Mod Edit: fit testing of N95 masks has been A Thing for years. For HCW, they come in several sizes for that reason. The test is performed with a sprayer of something that smells in low concentration, or that tastes sweet in low concentration - usually saccharine for the latter or isoamyl acetate (smells like bananas) for the former. The worker is advised what size of mask they need for a good fit and instructed on how to personally achieve a fit with it] See here, p 40: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2015-117/pdfs/2015-117.pdf?id=10.26616/NIOSHPUB2015117 And here, section B2: https://www.osha.gov/laws-regs/regulations/standardnumber/1910/1910.134AppA ]
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