Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

?

 

 

 

 

I don’t know what he’s saying but listening to him labor to breath is scary. 

 

True hero. RIP. 

 

 

 

These are the people Dan Patrick, Lt Governor of Texas and similar who want the country to go back to work so the economy (they think) will improve, is prepared to sacrifice.

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

These are the people Dan Patrick, Lt Governor of Texas and similar who want the country to go back to work so the economy (they think) will improve, is prepared to sacrifice.

half-assing this just seems like a great way to ***** things up in both directions.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Covid-10 Surveillance testing has begun in Seattle!

https://publichealthinsider.com/2020/03/23/introducing-scan-the-greater-seattle-coronavirus-assessment-network/

"For the past several weeks the flu study team has been working to adapt their project from a research study to part of our public health response. They’ve been partnering with Public Health — Seattle & King County, the Washington State Department of Health, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to do this, and now that transition is ready to go."

"By conducting focused, representative testing from a sample of people across greater Seattle and King County—ensuring we have participation from people in a cross-section of neighborhoods, including adults and children, whether they are showing symptoms or not—we will gain important information that allows us to better respond to the epidemic. "

 

"Understanding how COVID-19 is being transmitted, even among those who have not yet sought medical care and would not otherwise be tested, will help us determine if community measures such as social distancing are working, and whether we need to adapt our guidance. SCAN will help us answer questions like how the virus is affecting our kids, and which groups in King County are most at risk for infection, so we can better protect them."

But this part really caught my eye:

"It’s also important to know that the self-swab collection method used by SCAN has just been validated and approved for emergency, COVID-19 testing in Washington state. SCAN’s use of at-home, self-collection means the program does not reduce the testing capacity of our hospitals and clinics."

They have talked the CDC into validating and approving a self-swab method.  That means a health care worker does not need to don fresh PPE for each sample and get in your face.  This is HUGE for testing throughput.  I wonder if one of the carrots the flu project used is saying "hey, we already have these self-swab instructions, you can use us as a pilot study to see if it might work nationwide"

They are testing 300 samples per day at present, and hoping to ramp up. 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

These are the people Dan Patrick, Lt Governor of Texas and similar who want the country to go back to work so the economy (they think) will improve, is prepared to sacrifice.

Agree.

 

https://covidactnow.org/state/TX

 

Click state by state. Click on the peak in each state. It tells you how many hospitalizations are predicted if the proper measures aren’t followed to flatten the curve.

 

In Texas, for example, they predict 634,000 hospitalizations at peak.

426,000 in NY

465,000 in FL

864,000 in CA

 

In smaller states they predict 50-150,000 hospitalizations. 

And even in the smallest they predict 10+k 

 

Our healthcare system simply can’t handle it.

 

I’m not going to panic until I see what actually happens. But unless we have a very coherent, strict national plan in place with the ability to execute it when this “pause” is lifted (like S. Korea w/tons of testing, tracing & quarantining of any potentially infected patients, etc), I fear the outcome. 

 

I cant imagine that we will have everything needed in place by then - PPE and the other supplies needed, hospital beds/retrofitted buildings, etc, ventilators, enough doctors + nurses (some schools are even graduating students early to help fill the need), wide spread testing and tracking/tracing and so much more. I just don’t see how it can done in time.

Edited March 24, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Sundancer]

Italy cases and fatalities drop again. Social distancing working after 2 weeks. How they lift distancing and manage cases coming out of this will be huge to ensure they don’t just get another spike up. 
 

My mistake at 7am est. this is still yesterday’s data to be clear. Updates in a bit for today. Fingers crossed for more progress. Scouring the Internet for good news is fun!

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sundancer

[aristocrat]

gf finally got her first virus patient last night. orangeburg sc.  lets hope the one mask per shift rule keeps her and us from getting it.  

[Sundancer]

I know Hapless's feelings (!) but just as an FYI, TED's Chris Anderson is hosting a TED Talk with Bill Gates today at 12pm on Facebook. 

 

 

 

In 2015, Gates gave a TED Talk about our preparedness (or lack thereof) for a pandemic, and being an eternal optimist, will likely have some positive thoughts on the situation right now. Yes, he's a business leader and not a doctor, but he's had a lot of conversations about pandemics with a lot of people, and donated to a lot of causes that he is mode deeply involved in than just writing checks. He also has an appreciation for the economic issues. I will be interested to hear his take. 

 

#draftBillGates

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sundancer

[John in Jax]

The longer the lockdowns stay in force, the more likely that millions & millions of folks will lose their jobs forever, because millions of businesses will fail, and they will not be able to ever open back up. Plus of course millions of people may lose their homes and/or have to move in with relatives.

 

Yes, the stories of health care professionals (and others too) dying in this fight against this enemy is sad & heartbreaking......but you cannot totally ignore the devastating economic effect it’s having on our country.

 

And obviously, the top leaders of the country have more info than we do on this whole matter, so they will be making decisions from a more informed position.

 

Just for the heck of it, I wish the MSM would keep a daily/running tab on how many people are getting the flu and/or other respiratory illnesses, and how many deaths are happening from those illnesses.

[Cripple Creek]

Oh, those wacky Ontarians.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6722026/ontario-business-owner-covid-19-hoax/

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Oh, those wacky Ontarians.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6722026/ontario-business-owner-covid-19-hoax/

She should be arrested for knowingly endangering the public health. She is a danger to society. Literally.

[BringBackFergy]

18 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Oh, those wacky Ontarians.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6722026/ontario-business-owner-covid-19-hoax/

Global News travelled to Minden to find out why Vollmer was advising potentially sick customers to come to the store, which sells items including medical jewelry, essential oils and Himalayan crystal salt.

 

 

[aristocrat]

so the deaths in italy have gone down slightly the past couple days.  are we seeing them peak hopefully or what?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Sundancer said:

I know Hapless's feelings (!) but just as an FYI, TED's Chris Anderson is hosting a TED Talk with Bill Gates today at 12pm on Facebook. 

 

 

 

In 2015, Gates gave a TED Talk about our preparedness (or lack thereof) for a pandemic, and being an eternal optimist, will likely have some positive thoughts on the situation right now. Yes, he's a business leader and not a doctor, but he's had a lot of conversations about pandemics with a lot of people, and donated to a lot of causes that he is mode deeply involved in than just writing checks. He also has an appreciation for the economic issues. I will be interested to hear his take. 

 

#draftBillGates

 

Bill Gates is a smart man and probably worth listening to.

 

Here is the paradox: We SHOULD be optimistic!  We have the technological knowledge, the capability, and the "Can Do!" national will to beat this thing by July.

 

But we can't half-ass it.  We need a coherent national shutdown NOW, and a coherent national mobilization to obtain and distribute needed PPE, testing equipment etc before we reopen.

12 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

so the deaths in italy have gone down slightly the past couple days.  are we seeing them peak hopefully or what?

 

We may be.  Italy has been on lockdown for 2 weeks as of yesterday.

The expected outcome after a lockdown is that new cases will continue to increase for about 2 weeks (as people who are already infected fall ill) and deaths and hospitalizations will increase for 3-4 (as already ill people become seriously ill, and seriously/critically ill people recover or pass). 

Then deaths and hospitalizations should decline.

 

To reopen, there needs to be a coherent national plan to test and contact-trace additional cases, and staged re-opening.

[May Day 10]

16 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

so the deaths in italy have gone down slightly the past couple days.  are we seeing them peak hopefully or what?

 

About 3-4 days ago, they started their most restrictive distancing rules, cant go like 90 feet away from your home or something, and they said it would be until March 25th.  Expert-level social distancing

 

 

I think that's the key.  Restrict everything for a week or 2.  Test the heck out of everything, contain it, then slowly allow pieces of the economy and society back into circulation.  Massive testing at borders for the foreseeable future.  

[Sundancer]

30 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

 

About 3-4 days ago, they started their most restrictive distancing rules, cant go like 90 feet away from your home or something, and they said it would be until March 25th.  Expert-level social distancing

 

 

I think that's the key.  Restrict everything for a week or 2.  Test the heck out of everything, contain it, then slowly allow pieces of the economy and society back into circulation.  Massive testing at borders for the foreseeable future.  

 

We need the capability to test, and the capability (and will) to track and allow tracking of cases to put a lid on breakouts. 

 

The former (testing) requires getting tests and labs ready. We are working on that. It's not centralized that I can see but at least there is some gearing up in many places. 

 

The later (tracking) I've not seen anything on. An app would seem to be the least invasive way to do this with the least training. Korea had teams of people interviewing patients and tracking, which seems impractical here as no one has been trained to do this. Americans who want to party on spring break and don't trust big data (whether it's government or private) will blanche at the tracking. Anecdotally, I mentioned an installed COVID-19 tracking app to a neighbor the other day (socially distant...we were out walking our dogs and came across each other), and he said, "No way. I'm not installing any app." And I'm anti-government too but this is a time to temporarily centralize some things. If the government takes advantage of a virus and we turn from COVID-19 tracking to Stalinist Russia, that would be horrible, but I don't see that happening. 

 

48 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

so the deaths in italy have gone down slightly the past couple days.  are we seeing them peak hopefully or what?

 

It's a peak because of the distancing. Meaningful to show how distancing works, meaningless for coming back to normal without testing and tracking deeply part of life. I've not heard that Italy has any system in place to re-open safely without just restarting the problem.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sundancer

[Sundancer]

1 hour ago, John in Jax said:

The longer the lockdowns stay in force, the more likely that millions & millions of folks will lose their jobs forever, because millions of businesses will fail, and they will not be able to ever open back up. Plus of course millions of people may lose their homes and/or have to move in with relatives.

 

Yes, the stories of health care professionals (and others too) dying in this fight against this enemy is sad & heartbreaking......but you cannot totally ignore the devastating economic effect it’s having on our country.

 

And obviously, the top leaders of the country have more info than we do on this whole matter, so they will be making decisions from a more informed position.

 

Just for the heck of it, I wish the MSM would keep a daily/running tab on how many people are getting the flu and/or other respiratory illnesses, and how many deaths are happening from those illnesses.

 

A few things. I agree with Trump's Tweet yesterday about the cure and the disease. Assuming he has any control over lifting state-mandated quarantines, he is in a tough position, as are all world leaders. Crush economy vs screw the doctors and people who will die. There are some ways to split the difference but getting to that will take some more time and I believe, CENTRAL planning to make it happen. Nationally directed plans of how to test and track, and national authority over who needs what kind of quarantine. 

 

I agree with you that the experts can make the informed decisions. I hope it is them who are doing so AS A GROUP, listening to doctors AND economists. 

 

As to your comments about other diseases, I suspect you're trying to make a point that this disease hasn't yet killed that many people. Take a look at the exponential growth. A couple weeks ago, people were saying, "Big deal...500 people in the US have coronavirus. I had 500 people in my high school." Now we are at 40,000. This may taper off in a week but that's only because of quarantine. It will pop right back if we are not ready with testing and tracking, along with facilities and equipment for dealing with cases.

 

When hospitals get swamped by these cases, many of which are treatable under normal conditions, they will not be treatable when swamped, so of those 50% of 18-49 year olds who are mostly living but ending up in hospitals, they may not live. And then there are the other issues of swamping a medical system. When you have an allergy attack to a bee sting while the hospitals are bogged down, you're dead. And when you get an infection from a cut that just won't cure up, you're dead. And when your sibling who needs his regular treatment can't get to the clinic. And when the pregnant mother needs some attention because her birth is not working smoothly. Etc. Bogging down the doctors with CV-19 has more effect than just killing off the CV-19 people and their healthcare workers.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sundancer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, John in Jax said:

The longer the lockdowns stay in force, the more likely that millions & millions of folks will lose their jobs forever, because millions of businesses will fail, and they will not be able to ever open back up. Plus of course millions of people may lose their homes and/or have to move in with relatives.

 

Yes, the stories of health care professionals (and others too) dying in this fight against this enemy is sad & heartbreaking......but you cannot totally ignore the devastating economic effect it’s having on our country.

 

And obviously, the top leaders of the country have more info than we do on this whole matter, so they will be making decisions from a more informed position.

 

Just for the heck of it, I wish the MSM would keep a daily/running tab on how many people are getting the flu and/or other respiratory illnesses, and how many deaths are happening from those illnesses.

 

John, given the amount of misinformation that has come out over the course of this crisis, it's not obvious to me that the "top leaders of the country have more info than we do" or perhaps are not listening carefully to their most knowledgeable advisors.  There are too many well-documented misrepresentations and untruths that have been said.  And that's all I'll say.

 

Yes.  You are absolutely right that the economic costs of this are horrific.  But the best solution is to deal with the epidemic as effectively as possible and return to almost-normal by getting to a place where containment is possible.  THIS ISN'T THAT HARD!  We know how to do this!  But it can't be half-assed.  Half a loaf is the worst of both worlds here.

 

-Do you think states that are currently slammed by this, with leaders who trust scientists and epidemiologists, are going to reopen until it's contained?  No.  But their efforts will be prolonged and made less effective by neighboring states that open, prolonging economic impact to other states.

-We live in an economically interconnected world.  Every other country is not going to deliberately trash their healthcare system for a generation and sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa and other elders by opening up, so we will see economic impacts no matter what we do. 

-Jill and Joe Q Public are not all gonna go running out to buy stuff and risk needing a hospital bed that ain't there.  Some will, but many won't.  Dan Francis may be prepared to sacrifice himself (and you) but many of the rest of us are not.  So there will still be an economic impact.

 

Now, all those little red freckles on this map?  They are going to inevitably blossom into population-scaled big red dots without intervention measures.  We will see stacks of body bags in central Kansas or the Missouri bootheel because they have no hospitals that can cope with this (or just no hospitals).  That isn't the America I know and love.

It seems to me (but I'm not an economist) the economy will still suck, but the epidemic will spread unchecked, which is a Lose-Lose scenario.

 

Note: If you want to use the politicized term "Main Stream Media" and imply this is comparable to flu by suggesting a running comparison, please go to PPP.  The next such will be deleted and continuance will result in a ban.   I'm saying this here as a general public service.  I will not have this thread or the Facts one turned into a political slime fest.

 

[Process]

Listening to Cuomo. His press conference has a much different tone today, much more grim. Things are escalating quickly despite measures that have been taken. Seems like we are screwed in NYS. 

[Sundancer]

The Gates interview (which will be available for replay) is really good. He's not saying things that Hapless and others haven't covered, but he's a voice people listen to (unlike Hapless!). 

[Bob in Mich]

On 3/15/2020 at 5:06 AM, Bob in Mich said:

From what I have read, the trained medical personnel, ICU beds, and the ventilators (respirators) seem to be the limiting resources when hospitals get overwhelmed.  If we could do enough national testing to determine which areas are likely to go hot first, shouldn't we try to get additional resources to those areas?  I don't know how long the 'extra' help would be needed and so this may not be practical, but couldn't we mobilize military transport planes and temporarily shift resources around from quiet areas to the hot spots?  Once an area slows, the resources (people, beds, ventilators) are sanitized and moved to the next hot spot.

 

I am unsure how many machines or volunteers could be manufactured or accumulated as I am sure states or even hospitals would be reluctant to loan out anything if they fear an imminent outbreak in their region.  Widespread testing though could help in the determination of impending hot spots.  Would something like this be helpful or even doable?

Cuomo is talking about moving resources around finally. Damn, a lot of wasted time