Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: That 15 day period he is referring to is the “national pause” he called for a few days ago (that 1/2 the country isn’t even following) I hope he’s not saying that he plans to lift any “stay at home” orders at the end of the 15 days because of what it’s doing to the economy. Not sure what else he means by “we can’t let the cure be worse than the problem itself”. The way I read it is he’s losing patience with what this pause is doing to the economy. Hope I’m wrong on that. Minor correction: to my knowledge, Trump has not issued any "stay at home" orders. Do you mean he would lift those that states and localities have imposed? I'm not sure he can do that, but it would be incredibly ironic if he invoked emergency powers he has not used FOR the public health, to cancel public health measures.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, Sundancer said: Oh yeah I get it (on paper). I just see no ability for us to bite off what needs to be done on testing and tracking...followed by a nearly national lockdown of 3 weeks. This current shutdown is a joke. I'll just keep saying it: Boston is STILL mostly open. And yet somehow, smaller nations have managed to put what needs to be done, in place within weeks, on a coordinated national level. Singapore: https://www.cnet.com/news/singapores-coronavirus-playbook-how-one-country-fought-back-against-covid19-epidemic/ Taiwan:
BillsFan4 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Minor correction: to my knowledge, Trump has not issued any "stay at home" orders. Do you mean he would lift those that states and localities have imposed? I'm not sure he can do that, but it would be incredibly ironic if he invoked emergency powers he has not used FOR the public health, to cancel public health measures. No, I meant the “15 day pause” he called for. I don’t think he would lift state and local orders. But if he’s telling people it’s ok to go out and/or back to work, it’s going to be a lot harder to get people to stay home and follow local/state guidelines (though they won’t have a choice if their work isn’t open I guess). I just look at what happened when he finally started to take this thing serious just over a week ago. You saw a big shift in the national attitude. People finally started taking this thing seriously. You saw a lot less talk about “this is just an average flu”, etc. The president’s words carry a lot of weight. I think they are gearing up to send people back to work: Quote The White House has already been showing some signs of loosening its response to the pandemic. On Sunday, Vice President Pence, who leads the coronavirus task force, said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will soon issue guidance allowing people exposed to the coronavirus to return to work sooner by wearing a mask for a period of time. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-signals-growing-weariness-with-social-distancing-and-other-steps-advocated-by-health-officials/2020/03/23/0920ea0a-6cfc-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html even if it’s not an order, just encouraging businesses to open and call employees back is going to have a big impact on the decision a lot of businesses/employees make. Edited March 23, 2020 by BillsFan4
Royale with Cheese Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 You don’t say. https://fox8.com/news/college-students-in-florida-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-spring-break-trip/
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: No, I meant the “15 day pause” he called for. I don’t think he would lift state and local orders. But if he’s telling people it’s ok to go out and/or back to work, it’s going to be a lot harder to get people to stay home and follow local/state guidelines (though they won’t have a choice if their work isn’t open I guess). I just look at what happened when he finally started to take this thing serious just over a week ago. You saw a big shift in the national attitude. People finally started taking this thing seriously. You saw a lot less talk about “this is just an average flu”, etc. The president’s words carry a lot of weight. I think they are gearing up to send people back to work: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-signals-growing-weariness-with-social-distancing-and-other-steps-advocated-by-health-officials/2020/03/23/0920ea0a-6cfc-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html even if it’s not an order, just encouraging businesses to open and call employees back is going to have a big impact on the decision a lot of businesses/employees make. You are absolutely correct about the influence of what national leadership says, both on local/state leadership and on individuals. If you are correct and Trump does this without a coherent testing and contact-tracing plan in place, it seems inevitable it will accelerate the exponential growth of both cases and deaths. 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: You are absolutely correct about the influence of what national leadership says, both on local/state leadership and on individuals. If you are correct and Trump does this without a coherent testing and contact-tracing plan in place, it will propegate the spread of the disease IMO. Yeah If that’s what does happen I’m hoping that there will be a wide spread testing/tracing/isolation plan in place by then like S. Korea has. It may not even be an option in 2 weeks (going back to work) if the infection rates keep climbing at the rate they are now.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, Sundancer said: I don't think that's an "O." Well of course it isn't, I'm just doing that trained scientist caveat thing. Here's a feature piece on the availability of hospital care to rural Americans:https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article241376141.html?fbclid=IwAR0SgCS26B-jfDdrkULloEQlzRbCm_Pqw5n_2xqQYAPdRAAN_h30xACBPu4 Key quotes:"In Johnson County, the most populous and affluent county in Kansas, officials announced testing would be reduced because it had reached the point where the virus was spreading by community transmission. That move was aimed at preserving the limited test kits. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment said Friday that the state’s supply was “precariously low” and could run out over the weekend."That is just bass-ackwards. When the virus is spreading by community transmission, that's when you MOST need tests and contact tracking and more tests.... "After decades of declining population, many parts of Kansas and Missouri are left with few or no hospitals to treat patients suffering from COVID-19. Eleven of Kansas’ 105 counties have no hospital at all, according to a data analysis released Friday by Kaiser Health News. The picture is even more grim in Missouri, where 44 of the state’s 114 counties are without a hospital. And more than half the counties in both states have no ICU beds, the analysis found." It's not just declining population. It's Insurance availability and Medicaid reimbursement rates that don't come close to covering cost of care, so more and more hospitals in these areas can't accept it - plus of course lack of Medicaid expansion. The need is there, but the hospitals can't keep their doors open. But anyway, point is ..... if we lift stay-at-home orders without a coherent testing and contact tracing plan in place, the disease will inevitably spread across the country further than it has, into rural counties. And most of the population of these counties are older, and many have co-morbid conditions (diabetes, high blood pressure, emphysema etc)
Foxx Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 MA and MI just mandated stay at home orders for their states. 2
K-9 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said: No, I meant the “15 day pause” he called for. I don’t think he would lift state and local orders. But if he’s telling people it’s ok to go out and/or back to work, it’s going to be a lot harder to get people to stay home and follow local/state guidelines (though they won’t have a choice if their work isn’t open I guess). I just look at what happened when he finally started to take this thing serious just over a week ago. You saw a big shift in the national attitude. People finally started taking this thing seriously. You saw a lot less talk about “this is just an average flu”, etc. The president’s words carry a lot of weight. I think they are gearing up to send people back to work: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-signals-growing-weariness-with-social-distancing-and-other-steps-advocated-by-health-officials/2020/03/23/0920ea0a-6cfc-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html even if it’s not an order, just encouraging businesses to open and call employees back is going to have a big impact on the decision a lot of businesses/employees make. I have to wonder if this directive traveled from the CDC up or from the White House down. Because Redfield, as brilliant an epidemiologist as he is, is also one of the most feckless people in charge of any department involved in the effort to combat the pandemic. I get the impression he doesn’t want to upset his boss, Alex Azar.
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, K-9 said: I have to wonder if this directive traveled from the CDC up or from the White House down. Because Redfield, as brilliant an epidemiologist as he is, is also one of the most feckless people in charge of any department involved in the effort to combat the pandemic. I get the impression he doesn’t want to upset his boss, Alex Azar. Like Hapless mentioned, if we are going to punt on test and track, the least we can do is make sure we don't re-open until docs and nurses have masks, gowns, and more ventilator options, and there's a clear plan for where sick people should report to when they need medical help (CV wards). Re-opening now is saying to millions of Americans who will die, "Oh well" and it's saying to healthcare workers, "Good luck with your underwear masks." Reopening when we are a little more prepared is just about saying the same but at least we can give the healthcare workers a little protection. Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer 2
K-9 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Sundancer said: Like Hapless mentioned, if we are going to punt on test and track, the least we can do is make sure we don't re-open until docs and nurses have masks, gowns, and more ventilator options, and there's a clear plan for where sick people should report to when they need medical help (CV wards). Re-opening now is saying to millions of Americans who will die, "Oh well" and it's saying to healthcare workers, "Good luck to you." Reopening when we are a little more prepared is just about saying the same but at least we can give the healthcare workers a little protection. Which is why I can’t t believe this was conceived and okd at the CDC; it’s counter to their mission. Politics reigns. 1
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) My wife works for a local hospital. They are offering $5000 if she can refer someone who will come fill any one of many healthcare positions. That's how freaked out they are over the impact of the bodies coming and the impact on their staff getting sick. Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer 1 2
Steptide Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Sundancer said: My wife works for a local hospital. They are offering $5000 if she can refer someone who will come fill any one of many healthcare positions. That's how freaked out they are over the impact of the bodies coming and the impact on their staff getting sick. There's been some mentions on fox news today of a nation wide shut down. They should've done this 2 weeks ago. Instead they're slowly shutting down state by state, but this, if anything is just prolonging the inevitable. Just shut it all down, get past this thing and get back to life as usual Edited March 23, 2020 by Steptide
Wacka Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 My B-I-L is an interstate trucker for one of the freight lines. He told me Saturday that Illinois is locked down like NY but Indiana and Ohio are still wide open.
BillsFan4 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Came across this. I have no idea how accurate it is. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext “Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study”
Foxx Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Steptide said: There's been some mentions on fox news today of a nation wide shut down. They should've done this 2 weeks ago. Instead they're slowly shutting down state by state, but this, if anything is just prolonging the inevitable. Just shut it all down, get past this thing and get back to life as usual i believe the incremental shutdown of the nation was done with an eye towards preventing all out chaos (you have to inch people along so they accept certain/most/all things). however, i do think we have now breached the Rubicon to where the anxiety level is manageable enough to just shut it all down now. regarding getting back to, 'life as usual', i am afraid that that is going to take years. and in some respects, we will not be returning to Kansas, ever. Edited March 23, 2020 by Foxx
Doc Brown Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Remember the good old days when this thing was only in China and it was just funny.
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