Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bad Things said: The NZ Prime Minister came on the air earlier and announced that we will be going into "Stage 4" (lockdown) in 48 hours. She said Stage 4 will last at least 4 weeks. Yikes! So, what sort of productive endeavors should I pursue for the next month? I think that's another thread - "Pandemics are Boring" perhaps?
Bad Things Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I think that's another thread - "Pandemics are Boring" perhaps? cheers
BillsFan4 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success? Interesting read. Quote Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence. Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. 1 1
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success? Interesting read. The model couldn't be clearer. Massive testing and tracking. We can't do the first. The later isn't even being discussed. And regional closure left to local or state governments(or not) has been the approach here. So while NYC is being crushed, Boson biz (not restaurants) are still open. This needs to centralized at a national level to get back to any nomral. It seems we are not willing to do this nationally yet. Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer
ALF Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 A big problem is to have the virus with no symptoms and be able to spread it. A quick check with a ear temperature device is early warning sign to be very careful if temp is rising . 3
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) Maybe a national plan in 8 days. Quote President Donald Trump said on Sunday the United States will make a decision at the end of a 15-day period on “which way we want to go”, to curb the spread of the coronavirus. “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself,” he said on Twitter. He did not elaborate. Trump issued new guidelines on March 16 aimed at slowing the spread of the disease over 15 days. This would be a week from tomorrow. That's an arbitrary wait time. It'd be nice to know which way to go now, since we can see other countries who are ahead of us on the timeline and how it's going. But it's something. Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer
Wacka Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) I did geocaching yesterday. It is a hobby where you use a GPS to find stuff hidden outside. Usually do it solitary. Try not to be where people are so they don't go "What the hell are you doing?" . Met 5 geocachers I know on a bike trail. We kept our distance from each other. Been closer to people in the supermarket. Edited March 23, 2020 by Wacka 1
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, Wacka said: I did geocaching yesterday. It is a hobby where you use a GPS to find stuff hidden outside. Usually do it solitary. Try not to be where people are so they don't go "What the hell are you doing?" . Met 5 geocachers I know on a bike trail. We kept our distance from each other. Been closer to people in the supermarket. Went to a local nature area with hiking. More people than normal for sure but plenty of space for all. We all smiled and gave wide births when crossing paths. I hope they keep the parks open. Very good for my mental health. I expect they may be closed though as they get lumped in with “public spaces” to avoid like playgrounds and basketball courts (kids continue to play ball at my local park, which is baffling).
Gray Beard Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sundancer said: Went to a local nature area with hiking. More people than normal for sure but plenty of space for all. We all smiled and gave wide births when crossing paths. I hope they keep the parks open. Very good for my mental health. I expect they may be closed though as they get lumped in with “public spaces” to avoid like playgrounds and basketball courts (kids continue to play ball at my local park, which is baffling). I live in a village with plenty of sidewalks. It a great place to go for a walk. My wife and I have a 3 mile zigzag route that we like. I’ve noticed that when we encounter other people somebody will cross the street to give a wide berth. I’m fine with that.
Cripple Creek Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 One Chicago doc's opinion. Set this aside, when hopefully, in a month people say this was all for nothing. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-doctors-blunt-speech-about-covid-19-hit-home-across-the-country-read-her-full-speech/2241815/ 1 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Sundancer said: Maybe a national plan in 8 days. This would be a week from tomorrow. That's an arbitrary wait time. It'd be nice to know which way to go now, since we can see other countries who are ahead of us on the timeline and how it's going. But it's something. That 15 day period he is referring to is the “national pause” he called for a few days ago (that 1/2 the country isn’t even following) I hope he’s not saying that he plans to lift any “stay at home” orders at the end of the 15 days because of what it’s doing to the economy. Not sure what else he means by “we can’t let the cure be worse than the problem itself”. The way I read it is he’s losing patience with what this pause is doing to the economy. Hope I’m wrong on that. Edited March 23, 2020 by BillsFan4 1
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: That 15 day period he is referring to is the “national pause” he called for a few days ago (that 1/2 the country isn’t even following) I hope he’s not saying that he plans to lift any “stay at home” orders at the end of the 15 days because of what it’s doing to the economy. Not sure what else he means by “we can’t let the cure be worse than the problem itself”. The way I read it is he’s losing patience with what this pause is doing to the economy. Hope I’m wrong on that. That's how I'm reading it too. I also hope I'm wrong. The 15-day thing was not national and not enforced, so of course it is having only an arbitrary effect. But there is a balancing act with the economy here...if we'd had a really severe lockdown from day 1 of this, 2 (more likely 3) weeks might have worked if we were ready with testing and tracking coming out of it (both of these are VITAL to prevent more outbreaks). But we have sort of got nothing. The administration may have little choice but to re-open and sacrifice the healthcare system and deaths from CV and others whose care gets blocked by CV patients. Given the choice between a "now-informed" public choosing between: (1) shutdown with no testing/tracking, and (2) no shutdown, we might as well do #2 could well be the administration's decision. It doesn't seem like we have the capability for testing or the national will for tracking (see this NYT opinion, which reflects what a neighbor told me the other day, "I ain't installing an app to let people see where I go."). Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Sundancer said: Maybe a national plan in 8 days. This would be a week from tomorrow. That's an arbitrary wait time. It'd be nice to know which way to go now, since we can see other countries who are ahead of us on the timeline and how it's going. But it's something. We haven't had an effective lockdown yet. It's voluntary, it's arbitrary, it's piecemeal. St Louis locking down is not helpful when St Charles county is open for business. People just drive 10 miles and shop for clothes or bon-bons or get hair appointments there. Slap a ruler on this line and see where we'll be in a week. We need action YESTERDAY, not in 7 days. 1
Steptide Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 10 hours ago, Augie said: I hope and pray I would have made a better decision back in my day. I’m pretty sure my parents would not have allowed me to be so stupid. We’ll never know, so I’ll try not to judge, but everyone will have to live with the consequences of what happened there. Florida conveniently waited until after the spring break money was collected by bars, hotels (and the state in taxes) before closing the beaches. There’s a LOT of blame to be spread around here. I was talking with a friend the other day about how if this all happened when we were in highschool or college, we would've all (our friends) been hanging out together every night and doing who knows what. Maybe we wouldn't be going on spring break, but being off from school for however long is just an invitation for young people to do dumb things
K-9 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: We haven't had an effective lockdown yet. It's voluntary, it's arbitrary, it's piecemeal. St Louis locking down is not helpful when St Charles county is open for business. People just drive 10 miles and shop for clothes or bon-bons or get hair appointments there. Slap a ruler on this line and see where we'll be in a week. We need action YESTERDAY, not in 7 days. When I look at our graph line, we are literally the worst country in world when it comes to managing this. 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) Also confirms the defense production act has not actually been invoked (despite claims that it has) Quote Asked about growing pressure for President Donald Trump to use the Defense Production Act to force companies to mass produce critical supplies, Adams suggested that it’s not necessary at this point. “Here's the thing that people don't understand. You don't need to compel someone to do something they are already doing,” he said, adding that they’re already working with companies like Honeywell and Hanes that are already producing large quantities of the items needed. I thought there were other benefits to invoking the DPA, like being able to keep foreign countries from buying supplies/equipment needed here (and so our states aren’t competing against foreign nations to buy it), and funding for the increased production of these goods? (I’m not sure though) Edited March 23, 2020 by BillsFan4
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, Sundancer said: That's how I'm reading it too. I also hope I'm wrong. The 15-day thing was not national and not enforced, so of course it is having only an arbitrary effect. But there is a balancing act with the economy here...if we'd had a really severe lockdown from day 1 of this, 2 (more likely 3) weeks might have worked if we were ready with testing and tracking coming out of it. But we have sort of got nothing. The administration may have little choice but to re-open and sacrifice the healthcare system and deaths from CV and others whose care gets blocked by CV patients. Do you actually comprehend the full horror of what that statement means? Doctors and nurses and EMS here do not have full protective equipment. We have people wearing surgical masks who should be wearing N95. We have people wearing N95 who should be wearing self-contained respirators (nurses and doctors continuously exposed to pathogens wearing N95 will eventually become ill). This will pulverize a generation of physicians and nurses if we re-open without a vigorous containment plan in place, and the effects will be felt for decades to come. Those who don't die or become debilitated will suffer PTSD for years from the triage decisions they're going to have to make to choose which patient to ventilate and which patient to let die. Many Americans in rural counties have little access to hospitals and no access to hospitals with critical care facilities. This will decimate the population of rural areas, with follow-on effects on food supply. It's not just the health care system, either. Law enforcement in many places are NOT taking appropriate protective measures. Police forces will be unable to function properly for months, maybe longer. If that is in fact Trumps plan (and I'd like to hope you are mistaken, but I would not bet), what will happen in this nation in a month will be "eye opening" that's all I'll say. 1
Sundancer Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) I'm not saying hydroxychloroquine won't end up helping, but this is irresponsible: Florida man with coronavirus says drug touted by Trump saved his life (NYPost) I've taken it before when traveling to malaria zones and it has VERY SERIOUS side effects. This is a dangerous drug that has to be carefully administered, if it even works. 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Do you actually comprehend the full horror of what that statement means? Doctors and nurses and EMS here do not have full protective equipment. We have people wearing surgical masks who should be wearing N95. We have people wearing N95 who should be wearing self-contained respirators (nurses and doctors continuously exposed to pathogens wearing N95 will eventually become ill). This will pulverize a generation of physicians and nurses if we re-open without a vigorous containment plan in place, and the effects will be felt for decades to come. Those who don't die or become debilitated will suffer PTSD for years from the triage decisions they're going to have to make to choose which patient to ventilate and which patient to let die. Many Americans in rural counties have little access to hospitals and no access to hospitals with critical care facilities. This will decimate the population of rural areas, with follow-on effects on food supply. It's not just the health care system, either. Law enforcement in many places are NOT taking appropriate protective measures. Police forces will be unable to function properly for months, maybe longer. If that is in fact Trumps plan (and I'd like to hope you are mistaken, but I would not bet), what will happen in this nation in a month will be "eye opening" that's all I'll say. Oh yeah I get it (on paper). I just see no ability for us to bite off what needs to be done on testing and tracking...followed by a nearly national lockdown of 3 weeks. This current shutdown is a joke. I'll just keep saying it: Boston is STILL mostly open. Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Posted March 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Also confirms the defense production act has not actually been invoked (despite claims that it has) I thought there were other benefits to invoking the DPA, like being able to keep foreign countries from buying supplies/equipment needed here, and funding for the increased production of these goods? (I’m not sure though) Yes, that is correct. 1
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