Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Author Posted March 19, 2020 9 hours ago, Sundancer said: China new cases to 0 does not mean it is over. But it is good news. Very easy to start contagion again if all movement restrictions are lifted though. This will be our issue in the US in particular. Once we get on top of this, which will take longer, we will need to stay on top of it by staying in our communities, not exposing ourselves to many others, not just launching back to the old normal. It will need to be a slow climb back to protect the bubble from resurging. We need to get to the no new cases point first, then let experts guide the next steps and follow them. Unlike the responses that worked in China, the US communities are already starting to give up on tracing contacts citing spread via “normal activity,” which shows a lack of commitment to quarantine and tracing efforts (national database and contact mapping would seem so so easy for this...Facebook for Covid) compared to Korea, Singapore, Japan, and China. This is not good news. By not doing this, it may take longer to reach containment. As suspected by many, the west may lack the backbone to get on this in a way that makes the most difference early. Hapless: upstream my reference to you was just about the dire need for more testing Since you’ve been beating that drum so hard. Nothing more. On that topic of testing the admin’s primary strategy right now is distancing, not testing, due to continued lack of test availability to meet needs. Tough to read this knowing testing is a key to managing and resuming normalcy. Focusing the tests on elderly and healthcare workers is fine because we continue to literally have no choice but the low symptom folk may then carry and spread obliviously. No tracing, no testing is the opposite of Korea and Japan. Thanks. On the topic of beating the testing drum hard, not just mehttps://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/test-test-test-who-says-as-us-flounders-with-covid-19-response/?fbclid=IwAR0sotgDB4GOGEKX94iQl4Toaz17KoU00M1pQK0X62B8AdFBjelTdpNtCIg We can not return to a semblence of normality in any reasonable length of time if we don't test. If our supply of testing reagents is limited, we need to get on our knees and grovel to anyone who has what we need - China, Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan, whomever. Or we need to go full-court-press after a different sort of test - one based on an anti-Covid antibody, perhaps. We have several major Pharma companies who have the expertise to turn out a monoclonal PDQ *cough* *cough*. It would still take several months to go that route, though. We could do initial screening testing of contacts and travelers 5 days post-contact, and symptomatic, but not severely ill people with Biomedomic's 15 minute IgM/IgG test (it reads out a Pg test and can be done on site). It seems to have a relatively good false positive rate, but a poor false negative rate. If you're positive by Biomedomic's test, quarantine; if you're negative and wish to leave quarantine, or continue to show symptoms, you need an RT-PCR test. There are alternatives. 1
plenzmd1 Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wacka said: Running the CDC, his position. Uhmm, no not even close. And even if that was correct, him being the center of these briefings and then suddenly not being on them is disturbing to say the least
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Author Posted March 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, Wacka said: Running the CDC, his position. No. Fauci has never been head of the CDC, worked at the CDC, nor is he currently running it. Fauci is head of NiAID, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is part of NIH. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci He is part of the White House Task Force on covid-19. He has made several truthful statements about the development of covid-19 testing etc that are essentially critical of how it was handled. I expect he is currently residing in a doghouse somewhere. 39 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Felt like this was worth sharing. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8129633/Being-young-WONT-spare-coronavirus-CDC-study-warns.html It links to a CDC report: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w#F1_down A more popularized account of this from ABC news. Bottom line, if you're young and healthy, do NOT think that means you won't develop a serious case of covid-19 disease or require hospitalization.https://abcnews.go.com/US/40-hospitalized-coronavirus-younger-54-cdc/story?id=69681304 1
Not at the table Karlos Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said: Did you try any OTC meds like Nyquil, etc.? No just emergenC and normal multi vitamin.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Author Posted March 19, 2020 There's an APP for That! MIT develops tracking app for Covid-19. Depends upon everyone participating. https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/apps/a31742763/covid-19-app-private-kit-safe-paths/ Update: this is actually a pretty cool idea. It's kind of like Tile for Covid. "Private Kit" traces your location and keeps it private. If you are diagnosed with covid-19, you can release the data (anonymized) so that others can see where they may have come into contact with a diagnosed person. Lot of details, but sounds like a reasonable way to do what China did authoratarianly, by harvesting EVERYONE's location-tracking data off their cell phones: keep your data private until/unless you have a Public Health reason to share it.
DrDawkinstein Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 I'd just like to take a moment of remembrance to honor the victims of this Coronavirus (thread). Namely, me and DC Tom. ? Just goes to show, no one is safe or immune. 1
aristocrat Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 italy went from 4500 cases to 12k in about 5 days. The US is going to do it in less than 4.
Sundancer Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, aristocrat said: italy went from 4500 cases to 12k in about 5 days. The US is going to do it in less than 4. We have more patient 0 entry points than Italy I bet. So they have exponential growth in 1 region. We have exponential growth in many. We are sure to dwarf most other countries soon unless India gets on the board. If this hits India, look out. Edited March 19, 2020 by Sundancer
K-9 Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: Wheres Fauci been last two days? I’m resisting every urge to chime in with an opinion. I’ll just say I haven’t seen him or Redfield since they testified to Congress last week. 55 minutes ago, Wacka said: Running the CDC, his position. That’s Redfield.
Lurker Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, K-9 said: I’ll just say I haven’t seen him or Redfield since they testified to Congress last week. On CNN last night... https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/19/dr-anthony-fauci-young-people-coronavirus-swine-flu-cpt-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus/ Three hours ago.... https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/melania-trump-fauci-to-appear-in-psas-on-coronavirus/ 30 minutes ago.... Edited March 19, 2020 by Lurker 1
K-9 Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lurker said: On CNN last night... https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/19/dr-anthony-fauci-young-people-coronavirus-swine-flu-cpt-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus/ Three hours ago.... https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/melania-trump-fauci-to-appear-in-psas-on-coronavirus/ 30 minutes ago.... While I haven’t seen his appearances on any of those links either, especially on Fox News, which I stopped watching years ago, I was referring specifically to not seeing him appear alongside the other members of the Covid-19 task force.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Sundancer said: However we got here doesn't matter at the moment (it will for future planning and we can look forward to that day). We are here now, without adequate tests, not tracing down infected networks of people, simple supplies like masks, and more complicated supplies like ventilators. We just need to get through it somehow. Let's just be there for each other and especially medical workers. ...by no means an attempt to politicize it...if that was my intention , I would have referenced a political party or politician.....however if, IF the reported delay with CDC is true, its policies should be reviewed well down the road so a similar delay does not happen again...………. 1 1
Sundancer Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...by no means an attempt to politicize it...if that was my intention , I would have referenced a political party or politician.....however if, IF the reported delay with CDC is true, its policies should be reviewed well down the road so a similar delay does not happen again...………. Agreed 100%. Being prepared for much of this would have taken so little $$ (in a federal budget) that we should ensure we're ready next time. - coordinated response plans - centralized decision and resource planning ("governors, go buy what you need from vendors" is not a great way to allocate resources. If there are 10 cases in Nebraska and 900 in New York, New York needs more resources) ... I hate federal government bloat but central planning in a time like this is why Rome appointed dictators and sometimes you need a government dictator to make decisions in crisis - backup supplies in adequate numbers (at least basic supplies...it would be hard to keep 100,000 ventilators on hand) - basic testing reagent ramp up plan in place so we can go from low numbers to high in a hurry I am sure others can think of things, but for sure this will have to take place when smarter people than me sit down to review this pandemic. Edited March 19, 2020 by Sundancer
DrDawkinstein Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Sundancer said: Agreed 100%. Being prepared for much of this would have taken so little $$ (in a federal budget) that we should ensure we're ready next time. - coordinated response plans - centralized decision and resource planning ("governors, go buy what you need from vendors" is not a great way to allocate resources. If there are 10 cases in Nebraska and 900 in New York, New York needs more resources) ... We had all of this and more ready to go as of January 2017 from lessons learned in the H1N1 crisis. 2 1
hemma Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 I have been delivering packages (~130 stops per day) for the last 6 months and lately, have been trying to use hand cleaner every 3 or 4 minutes ++ stop touching my face. 'Discipline' definitely wasn't working as I would start forgetting within an hour. Yesterday, early AM I bought a 100 pack of disposable, latex free vinyl gloves at Home Depot ... for $10.78. I put on a pair before I walked out my back door to go to work and took them off/trashed them when I got home last night. I am 100% sure I didn't touch my face for > 8 hours. Wearing the gloves makes your hands feel 'different' and I wasn't even tempted to touch my face. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Author Posted March 19, 2020 3 hours ago, Wacka said: This virus was first sequenced in January. The test was developed in February. The reason they don’t have millions of tests is that it takes time to manufacture them. You can’t just snap your fingers and have them up here. This is not a dream of Jeannie or bewitched. The time between sequencing the virus and producing test kits what is the fastest ever. So, errrrr.....Maybe I'm missing the point, but how are Taiwan, China, Singapore, S. Korea, and essentially every other country managing to make many thousands more tests available so quickly?Seegene had S. Korea's test kit developed by Feb 5th, and it was approved a week later. They quickly ramped up to test 10,000 people per day, and are now at 15,000 people per day. Extensive testing is one significant reason why, despite setbacks like church sects spraying virus contaminated salt water into people's mouths, they are on a different disease trajectory. S. Korea has to date tested 230,000 people [Edit: 290,000]. We've tested what, 40,000 total? [Edit: 60,000]. Their test may not be perfect (but neither is ours) but they are containing the disease with apparently far less impact on business and daily life. I pointed out elsewhere U of Washington was able, once approved Mar 2, to start testing 1000 people a day and now up to 1500/day. We have at least 6 medical school virology departments I can think of, maybe as many as 12, with the ability for similar performance. That would be an additional 6,000-12,000 tests per day. The U of Washington guys started test development before they got permission, everyone else waited until the CDC finally granted permission at the end of February. Edit: by the way, the Seegene test development story as presented in the above link is a bit surreal. Read it. Bolding mine. That blows my mind. The next hurdle was getting the test approved for use. It can take a year-and-a-half to submit the necessary documents to South Korea's authorities and get it approved. This time, it took a week. Lee Dae-hoon, who led the team of scientists working to develop the coronavirus test kit, has spent his whole life working on diseases. He's never seen the KCDC approve a test kit so fast. On February 12, Seegene got sign off, thanks to KCDC expediting the process. It was only then that the scientists only knew for certain that their test worked, as the government had evaluated the test using their own patient samples. EDIT: more about how Korea facilitated getting testing in place so quickly. It came from the top, Korea CDC holding meetings with testing companies and saying "we want a test asap, develop it and we will fast-track approval" 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) Anyone listening to the Adam Silver interview on ESPN? He said part of the reason the NBA decided to suspend play so quickly last Wednesday was to raise public awareness of how serious this situation is. I read NHL insiders saying the same thing about the NHL’s decision. I do think it had a major impact on raising awareness. Edited March 19, 2020 by BillsFan4 2
Sundancer Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Anyone listening to the Adam Silver interview on ESPN? He said part of the reason the NBA decided to suspend play so quickly last Wednesday was to raise public awareness of how serious this situation is. I read NHL insiders saying the same thing about the NHL’s decision. I do think it had a major impact on raising awareness. That night was the tipping point for sure. It was coming regardless but that was the moment this went from blithe ignorance to forefront of consciousness. I was on the phone yesterday with some people from Buffalo. They know it's coming but I could tell they still don't get what's about to hit in a week or so. My brother and his girlfriend are nurses in Buffalo. He gets what's about to happen but only theoretically. Some people won't buy it until they see photos of their friends in the middle of this, which is part of what lead to our slow reaction as a country. Edited March 19, 2020 by Sundancer 2
Steptide Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sundancer said: That night was the tipping point for sure. It was coming regardless but that was the moment this went from blithe ignorance to forefront of consciousness. I was on the phone yesterday with some people from Buffalo. They know it's coming but I could tell they still don't get what's about to hit in a week or so. My brother is a nurse in Buffalo. He gets what's about to happen but only theoretically. Some people won't buy it until they see photos of their friends in the middle of this. I don't know what to think. Part of me thinks two weeks from now everything will be back to normal, and another part of me thinks 2 weeks from now nobody will be allowed to leave their house 1
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