Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 16, 2020 Author Posted March 16, 2020 1 hour ago, teef said: we just found out there's case in our suburb, so i can only imagine how many people already have it. The point is, you can only imagine, but epidemiologists whose job it is to figure these things out calculate, and while they believe there are far more cases than are currently reported, the number is probably 10x or 20x IOW we have 3,700 current positive tests, the actual number of infected people is probably 37,000-74,000. Upthread I posted a series of tweets from an epidemiologist explaining how he gets there. Another line of argument is that given what we know about the morbidity of the disease, if it were far far more widespread than they calculate we would be seeing it show up as excess cases of pneumonia over the usual expected, and so far we're not seeing that. Crudely, if you divide the US death rate by 0.005 (death rate while everyone who is ill can receive best care) or 0.05 (death rate once the hospitals are past capacity and triage must be done) you'll get a cross-check.
row_33 Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 Just now, teef said: it's not too hard to put me to shame. i'm the worst person that i know 1
Hardhatharry Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, John in Jax said: Yes. South Korea tested 100,000 people and 96% were negative. ETA: We know who the high risk people are, so obviously the high risk people should be taking extreme measures to avoid it. But everybody else should be able to live their lives. Completely shutting down bars and restaurants is asinine. I can see limiting their capacities though.... Awesome lets overload the hospitals b/c you want to go get plastered. 1
teef Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: The point is, you can only imagine, but epidemiologists whose job it is to figure these things out calculate, and while they believe there are far more cases than are currently reported, the number is probably 10x or 20x IOW we have 3,700 current positive tests, the actual number of infected people is probably 37,000-74,000. Upthread I posted a series of tweets from an epidemiologist explaining how he gets there. Another line of argument is that given what we know about the morbidity of the disease, if it were far far more widespread than they calculate we would be seeing it show up as excess cases of pneumonia over the usual expected, and so far we're not seeing that. Crudely, if you divide the US death rate by 0.005 (death rate while everyone who is ill can receive best care) or 0.05 (death rate once the hospitals are past capacity and triage must be done) you'll get a cross-check. is there any real news in terms on increasing testing? i would love a drive through center around here. 2
Bob in Mich Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, row_33 said: i'm the worst person that i know Typically your posts are complete BS but I firmly believe this post. Stay safe, comrade.
DrDawkinstein Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, teef said: is there any real news in terms on increasing testing? i would love a drive through center around here. Drive-thru coronavirus testing site in Denver closes early as Colorado tops 100 cases 24 cases were confirmed positive overnight https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/14/colorado-coronavirus-new-cases-drive-thru-high-volume/ Surprise, surprise. When you test people, you get a lot more cases. 1 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) Live Press conference w/NY governor: -All bars and restaurants closed in NY. They coordinated with NJ and Connecticut to close bars in all 3 states. -They will have the capacity to test 7000 per day. -Trying to get army corps of engineers to come and retrofit hospitals but no luck so far. Thinks they’re going to run out of hospital space. -All casinos and gyms gyms closed. -all closings go into effect at 8pm. -local govt.’s reduce to 50% work force Private businesses encouraged to do the same -State will provide masks for all first responders; police and EMT, etc. new casss in NY: - 950 confirmed cases -7 deaths -158 hospitalized -Wyoming and Allegheny have new cases. Wow! Edit - link: Here is a link that covers all the info - https://www.wivb.com/news/new-york/ny-ct-nj-to-close-restaurants-gyms-bars-and-more-starting-monday-night/ Edited March 16, 2020 by BillsFan4 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 16, 2020 Author Posted March 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, row_33 said: the most common sense practical people in my life are spiritual, put most of us to shame they aren't watching MSM for boiling of their emotions I agree with you, I'm just into "Praise the Lord, and Pass the Ammunition" "Trust God, and Mount your Archers" etc. We all know people who use faith or spirituality as a substitute for following infection-control best practices. At one point, literally more than half of the covid-19 cases in Korea were linked to a Christian sect which instructs (demands!) members attend crowded Sunday services regardless of illness - they all kneel packed in together.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 16, 2020 Author Posted March 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, row_33 said: nobody KNOWS.... just put yesterday's stats into a graph and compare it to other events, which can have something in common with the current situation, but each new situation is..... new.... you must have friends who have "figured out" some sports betting thing using past data, and you can't convince them it's got nothing to do with the future events... Brother, I have talked to you and talked to you about the difference between a trained epidemiologist whose business it is to model disease spread and who has spent a lifetime doing it accurately and successfully. I answer questions as carefully as I can, when people have questions. People have a right to ask questions. You, on the other hand, make repeated fallacious assertions. You can't don't or won't get it, hence the crack about how I have friends who "figured out" some sports betting thing. Have a Seat. I'm done. Past disease events predict future disease events once you know some data like the means of transmission and the basic reproduction rate (how many people get sick from contact with a sick person) because they follow the same mathmatical equations. "Science, it Works *****" 2
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 More proof that you can't fix stupid An influencer filmed herself licking a plane toilet seat for 'clout' on TikTok as part of a 'coronavirus challenge' https://www.yahoo.com/news/influencer-filmed-herself-licking-plane-135300257.html maybe that should have it's own thread Ava Louise / Twitter Influencer Ava Louise filmed herself licking a plane seat toilet, starting a bizarre "coronavirus challenge." "Please RT this so people can know how to properly be sanitary on the airplane," she said. She told Insider she did it because she didn't want coronavirus getting more attention than her. "What's not gunna make people sad is a hot rich blonde 20-something-year-old licking a toilet," she said. "It's not like the virus can kill me anyway because I don't use Facebook." 1
DrDawkinstein Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: More proof that you can't fix stupid An influencer filmed herself licking a plane toilet seat for 'clout' on TikTok as part of a 'coronavirus challenge' https://www.yahoo.com/news/influencer-filmed-herself-licking-plane-135300257.html maybe that should have it's own thread This needs a Would Ya? thread. I already know the Yeses 2
Augie Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I agree with you, I'm just into "Praise the Lord, and Pass the Ammunition" "Trust God, and Mount your Archers" etc. We all know people who use faith or spirituality as a substitute for following infection-control best practices. At one point, literally more than half of the covid-19 cases in Korea were linked to a Christian sect which instructs (demands!) members attend crowded Sunday services regardless of illness - they all kneel packed in together. Wow......that is just insane! 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 16, 2020 Author Posted March 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: More proof that you can't fix stupid An influencer filmed herself licking a plane toilet seat for 'clout' on TikTok as part of a 'coronavirus challenge' https://www.yahoo.com/news/influencer-filmed-herself-licking-plane-135300257.html maybe that should have it's own thread Ava Louise / Twitter Influencer Ava Louise filmed herself licking a plane seat toilet, starting a bizarre "coronavirus challenge." "Please RT this so people can know how to properly be sanitary on the airplane," she said. She told Insider she did it because she didn't want coronavirus getting more attention than her. "What's not gunna make people sad is a hot rich blonde 20-something-year-old licking a toilet," she said. "It's not like the virus can kill me anyway because I don't use Facebook." Someone should introduce her to Rudy Gobert. Maybe they could share a ventilator or something like that. ??❤️?? 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: This needs a Would Ya? thread. I already know the Yeses Done 1
Just Jack Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 1 hour ago, teef said: is there any real news in terms on increasing testing? i would love a drive through center around here. Onondaga County/Syracuse opened a testing center, but it's only for those that are told to go get tested by their doctor. You can not just walk in and be tested.
Capco Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Not if the bars and restaurants close, Katie.... it ticks me off that we need to have government close stuff completely because some people can't accept any restraint That's why government has a role in organizing and administering the masses. If most people are left to their own devices, you get the Tragedy of the Commons type stuff.
teef Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Just Jack said: Onondaga County/Syracuse opened a testing center, but it's only for those that are told to go get tested by their doctor. You can not just walk in and be tested. That’s a start. I know someone who was tested here, (negative) but it was not an easy process.
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