Foxx Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: i am probably in the minority here in thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made out to be but these are recipes for disaster if you are trying to contain the spread. if one is sick, how many people around them are they going to infect? then they are going to go out and... it is exponential and inevitable, you just aren't going to contain it with authority making decisions such as these. 3
Hardhatharry Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Learning experiences for future problems. Next time something like this starts happening in the world I bet a quicker shut down of people going in and out of that region will happen. This is really the first time with this much availability of news and documentation that anyone has seen something like this. The fact you still think the virus is no big deal is the only worrying part of the post. This could have been handled better but the wait was too long with the rest of the world. Next time something like this happens at least people will know what to do before it even leaves one country. Humanity doesn't learn until it makes the mistake. 1
K-9 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Foxx said: i am probably in the minority here in thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made out to be but these are recipes for disaster if you are trying to contain the spread. if one is sick, how many people around them are they going to infect? then they are going to go out and... it is exponential and inevitable, you just aren't going to contain it with authority making decisions such as these. I’m struck by the contradiction between “thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made it to be” and “it is exponential and inevitable.” I agree entirely that these scenes of hordes tightly compacted in confined spaces is a recipe for disaster. 1
Foxx Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, K-9 said: I’m struck by the contradiction between “thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made it to be” and “it is exponential and inevitable.” I agree entirely that these scenes of hordes tightly compacted in confined spaces is a recipe for disaster. how is it a contradiction? one can not think that it is not what it is being made out to be and also believe the spread is inevitable?
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, K-9 said: I’m struck by the contradiction between “thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made it to be” and “it is exponential and inevitable.” I agree entirely that these scenes of hordes tightly compacted in confined spaces is a recipe for disaster. ...NO VACCINE AVAILABLE is the driving force behind the unprecedented panic IMO....even though there is an annual flu vaccine available, it is hardly 100% preventative because of numerous strains.....CDC cites 2017-2018 US flu season yielded 45 million infected, 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths.....who knows how many within those numbers had the vaccine?.....how many people have you heard say, "I NEVER bother with a flu shot"?.......but its availability dampened the fears that we are seeing with coronavirus IMO.... Edited March 15, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy
Foxx Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said: Learning experiences for future problems. Next time something like this starts happening in the world I bet a quicker shut down of people going in and out of that region will happen. This is really the first time with this much availability of news and documentation that anyone has seen something like this. The fact you still think the virus is no big deal is the only worrying part of the post. This could have been handled better but the wait was too long with the rest of the world. Next time something like this happens at least people will know what to do before it even leaves one country. Humanity doesn't learn until it makes the mistake. it's a situation where you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. to reiterate this point the President originally took flack back when he banned flights from China Jan 31st. not wanting to make this political (and please don't make it political (we have a thread for that in PPP)) but it has to be pointed out in order to buttress this position. what if all European flights had been banned at that time as well, the outrage would have been off the charts. yes i will grant that there are/were certain things that could have been handled differently but the main point remains, no matter what would have been done, it is open to criticism, you are not going to win in this type of situation. add in the fact that China tried to hide/repress the conditions on the ground (who knows what actually happened to this day) and actions/reactions are all but impossible to make accurate decisions with regard to. 1
K-9 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Foxx said: how is it a contradiction? one can not think that it is not what it is being made out to be and also believe the spread is inevitable? “Exponential”, “inevitable”, “recipes for disaster” all struck me as not lending themselves to “not as big a deal...” No worries, I’m not making a negative comment about your position on the matter. I sincerely hope it continues to be less of a big deal for you and everyone else as well. 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 42 minutes ago, Foxx said: i am probably in the minority here in thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made out to be but these are recipes for disaster if you are trying to contain the spread. if one is sick, how many people around them are they going to infect? then they are going to go out and... it is exponential and inevitable, you just aren't going to contain it with authority making decisions such as these. Yeah a lot of people were caught off guard, it seems. also, I’m wondering what exactly this “advanced screening” is that o’hare started yesterday? I hope that doesn’t mean they are just now ramping up screening for international passengers? I truly pray you are right about this not being as serious as it’s being made out to be. I am definitely feeling uneasy about all of this. I see what’s happening in Italy and It’s not like they are a 3rd world country or something. They have a very good healthcare system + facilities. I have a friend who lives over there and she says it’s like nothing she’s ever seen. She said they weren’t prepared at all. Said it was like someone dropped a bomb on them. My main fear is that I have 3 people in my immediate family (that I am in close contact with) who are in the high risk categories. I’m not exactly low risk either. I travel for work and for medical reasons. Still trying to figure everything out. Kind of in wait and see mode. I may not even be able to fly by then, who knows. I’m Thankful I don’t have another trip plan until April, but I can’t imagine flying into a JFK international terminal right now. I flew there at the end of January and it was a bit strange. Lots of people on edge. Lots wearing masks (most were those dr masks that don’t really protect you) and you could see that it was kind of spooking other passengers. I was talking with 2 passengers flying back from China. They said it was chaos in the airports there. They were scrambling to get back (they were very surprised to be able to walk right through customs here without any additional screening. That freaked me out but they did say they had their temperatures taken at the airport in China). And I had 5 Chinese speaking passengers sitting (literally) right next to me on the plane, all wearing face masks. It wasn’t s fun trip so I can’t imagine what flying would be like right now. 1 1
KD in CA Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) Clearing customs usually takes an hour or two. Now add on a virus screen and of course that’s going to significantly increase the wait time. That’s what the government enforcing measures to test and contain the spread looks like. But if we were really serious about this, we would have shut down air travel completely two weeks ago. Edited March 15, 2020 by KD in CA 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Foxx said: it's a situation where you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. to reiterate this point the President originally took flack back when he banned flights from China Jan 31st. not wanting to make this political (and please don't make it political (we have a thread for that in PPP)) but it has to be pointed out in order to buttress this position. what if all European flights had been banned at that time as well, the outrage would have been off the charts. yes i will grant that there are/were certain things that could have been handled differently but the main point remains, no matter what would have been done, it is open to criticism, you are not going to win in this type of situation. add in the fact that China tried to hide/repress the conditions on the ground (who knows what actually happened to this day) and actions/reactions are all but impossible to make accurate decisions with regard to. To keep this post shorter and hopefully not political, I’ll just post this link - (credible source IMO) https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/ and even if it did buy some time (the virus was already confirmed here for at least 10 days before the restrictions, and we don’t really know if there were more cases or if it bought time since very little testing has been done), IMO it doesn’t seem like they really used that time to prepare the country. So I’m not too sure what it ultimately accomplished. Hopefully that answer wasn't political. I’ll end it here too so I don’t derail this thread. 3
Hardhatharry Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Foxx said: it's a situation where you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. to reiterate this point the President originally took flack back when he banned flights from China Jan 31st. not wanting to make this political (and please don't make it political (we have a thread for that in PPP)) but it has to be pointed out in order to buttress this position. what if all European flights had been banned at that time as well, the outrage would have been off the charts. yes i will grant that there are/were certain things that could have been handled differently but the main point remains, no matter what would have been done, it is open to criticism, you are not going to win in this type of situation. add in the fact that China tried to hide/repress the conditions on the ground (who knows what actually happened to this day) and actions/reactions are all but impossible to make accurate decisions with regard to. outrage over panic, people forget outrage quickly. Everyone remembers panic... Next time no one will give a ***** about the outraged people though so like I said learning experience for everyone. Edited March 15, 2020 by Hardhatharry 2
Foxx Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, K-9 said: “Exponential”, “inevitable”, “recipes for disaster” all struck me as not lending themselves to “not as big a deal...” No worries, I’m not making a negative comment about your position on the matter. I sincerely hope it continues to be less of a big deal for you and everyone else as well. 37 minutes ago, Foxx said: I’m struck by the contradiction between “thinking this virus is not the big deal it is being made it to be” and “it is exponential and inevitable.” i suffer myself from time to time with reading comprehension so please do not take this the wrong way. the words “inevitable”, “recipes for disaster” preceded the conditional tense of "if". further, the conditional tense of "if" was, again used immediately to precede, “it is exponential and inevitable.”.
row_33 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Just now, Foxx said: i suffer myself from time to time with reading comprehension so please do not take this the wrong way. the words “inevitable”, “recipes for disaster” preceded the conditional tense of "if". further, the conditional tense of "if" was, again used immediately to precede, “it is exponential and inevitable.”. they build these models on a Jenga tower of assumptions 59 miles high and don’t tell us half of them When it doesn’t go their way they say they were 100 percent correct because half the assumptions they outlined didn’t take place
BUFFALOKIE Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) As of yesterday morning, I counted 34 American Airlines jets parked outside their maintenance facility - that I could see from my office. Could have been double that as I cannot see the far side of their facility. Edited March 15, 2020 by BUFFALOKIE
Hardhatharry Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, BUFFALOKIE said: As of yesterday morning, I counted 34 American Airlines jets parked outside their maintenance facility - that I could see from my office. Could have been double that as I cannot see the far side of their facility. Just one of many that are in my eye in terms of stock, that and cruise lines have tanked. They will recover though just a matter of how much more they will sink before.
Foxx Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 an article from yesterday. it gives a good look at the deaths up till Friday in some detail. not to be calloused, as i do value all life but we are seeing an emerging trend line. Older or Unhealthy: The first 48 U.S. coronavirus deaths in detail ... Thirty-seven deaths (77% of total) are in Washington state. Newly reported on March 13, 2020 Two women in their 90s at Life Care Center died on March 6. A woman in her 80s at Life Care Center died on March 6. A man in his 70s at Overlake Medical Center died on March 4. A man in his 80s at Swedish Issaquah hospital, died on March 9. Woman in her 70s with underlying health conditions died on March 11. Four Washington state deaths are from Snohomish County A woman in her 70s with underlying health conditions died March 11. Woman in her 80s with underlying health conditions died March 10. Man in his 80s with underlying health conditions, died March 9 at the Josephine Caring Community A man in his 40s with underlying health conditions died but the date has not been specified. One Washington State death is from Grant County, a patient in his or her 80s. Four deaths are in California: A woman, 90s, in assisted living. A woman, 60s, hospitalized in Santa Clara. An elderly man in assisted living. A man, 71, with underlying health conditions who had been on a Grand Princess cruise ship. Two deaths are in Florida: A man and woman, both in their 70s, died after returning from foreign travel. One death is in New Jersey: A man, 69, who is diabetic and suffered two cardiac arrests, has died. One death is in South Dakota: A man in his 60s with underlying medical conditions has died. One death is in Georgia: A man, 67, with underlying medical conditions has died. One death is in Kansas: A man in his 70s with underlying health conditions died at the Life Care Center in Kansas City. One death in is Colorado: A woman in her 80s with underlying health conditions has died.
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Yeah a lot of people were caught off guard, it seems. also, I’m wondering what exactly this “advanced screening” is that o’hare started yesterday? I hope that doesn’t mean they are just now ramping up screening for international passengers? I truly pray you are right about this not being as serious as it’s being made out to be. I am definitely feeling uneasy about all of this. I see what’s happening in Italy and It’s not like they are a 3rd world country or something. They have a very good healthcare system + facilities. I have a friend who lives over there and she says it’s like nothing she’s ever seen. She said they weren’t prepared at all. Said it was like someone dropped a bomb on them. My main fear is that I have 3 people in my immediate family (that I am in close contact with) who are in the high risk categories. I’m not exactly low risk either. I travel for work and for medical reasons. Still trying to figure everything out. Kind of in wait and see mode. I may not even be able to fly by then, who knows. I’m Thankful I don’t have another trip plan until April, but I can’t imagine flying into a JFK international terminal right now. I flew there at the end of January and it was a bit strange. Lots of people on edge. Lots wearing masks (most were those dr masks that don’t really protect you) and you could see that it was kind of spooking other passengers. I was talking with 2 passengers flying back from China. They said it was chaos in the airports there. They were scrambling to get back (they were very surprised to be able to walk right through customs here without any additional screening. That freaked me out but they did say they had their temperatures taken at the airport in China). And I had 5 Chinese speaking passengers sitting (literally) right next to me on the plane, all wearing face masks. It wasn’t s fun trip so I can’t imagine what flying would be like right now. I’m flying without a net here, but a friend with family in, and more intimate knowledge of Italy suggested that the percentage of citizens over age 65 is among the highest in the world. This article indicates 23% of the population is in that age group. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19 He also indicated there is substantial concern that the virus, with highest concentration in the north, moving south. The concern is norther Italy is generally wealthier, with greater access to superior medical care than in the south (relatively speaking). 2
K-9 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Foxx said: i suffer myself from time to time with reading comprehension so please do not take this the wrong way. the words “inevitable”, “recipes for disaster” preceded the conditional tense of "if". further, the conditional tense of "if" was, again used immediately to precede, “it is exponential and inevitable.”. Sorry, I’m not buying this explanation. “If” was used as a conditional tense for “one is sick” and then goes out and spreads the virus. Fine. But then you conceded that it is exponential and inevitable. Those facts don’t depend on the conditional if because the virus is exponential in its spread and it’s spread is inevitable, regardless. Thus, I saw the contradiction. We’ve beaten this to death. Anyway, stay healthy. 2 1
Recommended Posts