row_33 Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: My hands were good, even got the Wegmans to bring a hand sanitizer station by the avocados cause ya have to pick and press the avocado to judge its ripeness right? More than any other fruit by a mile! thought it was ready if you can easily flick off the stem, or what’s left of it
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 For the “mathy” people out there. (Sorry if this was posted already.) I found it worth a few minutes. Stay home as much as you can! Don’t be an “E”! 2 1
Lurker Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) Sign of the times. This was today at the Surfine supermarket in Eden. Guess which aisle and win a cupie doll... Not as bad as these folks, however: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2020/03/10/coronavirus-australia-family-buys-12-year-supply-toilet-paper/4985534002/ Edited March 14, 2020 by Lurker
RocCityRoller Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: "I find it interesting you neglected to share the entire portion of the Atlantic article below, " Oh do you now? Or do you have a little agenda here when you end with "Limiting information as to why the test kits are delayed is intellectually dishonest and dangerous."? Everybody gets to share what part of the article interests or strikes them as important, including you. Reads like you're throwing some shade, not just sharing. I didn't include that portion because I personally feel it's an obstacle that could have been readily overcome with coordination and cooperation. Yes, clinical samples can be a limitation early on but there were certainly patients both in US and in other countries that will ship samples at the time delays in test development were occurring. I don't think they were (or needed to be) as rate-limiting as the article implies. The main issue is the FDA didn't invite test development nor enable it, as it's done for previous emerging diseases. I worked in Pharma for a decade cheek by jowl and working closely with people developing tests. I know how tests are developed. I've had cocktails with and chatted up people at the FDA about their concerns with developing clinical tests. The delays to the process here were far beyond what is reasonable in the cause of accuracy. It is egregious as I see it, and I will throw "shade". Accuracy is important, so is freakin' getting it done. And that starts at the top, with defining priorities. There will always be false negatives and false positives in clinical tests. Some of these only emerge in practical field use - interferences that weren't considered or tested when the test was developed. Some of them are not "on" the tests - people don't happen to have virus in their throat when it's swabbed, it's down in their lungs; or the swab isn't dampened enough, or it isn't stored or processed properly. But a test is a tool, and in an emerging contagious disease scenario, undue delays in testing or failure to develop a test promptly is not justified in the pursuit of undue perfection. One simply defines performance standards the test has to meet, looks at the data that shows the test meets them, and moves. The effort is not so coordinated right now, BTW. The FDA simply started to authorize test development under a simplified EUA. Hey Hapless, you are informed and have shared some good info here. My point is that there are a number of factors tied into the delay in getting accurate tests out. They should all be noted. Let's look at a quick timeline of the response. 1) January 22 - 580 cases of COVID-19 confirmed Globally https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 2) January - Early lack of samples to create a test stalls labs around the world in late January. 'BioMérieux just released three versions of its coronavirus test this week, after beginning work on it on January 23. Miller says that with every viral outbreak, the company’s biggest problem by far is getting access to virus and patient specimens so that it can validate its tests. Even when working with nonauthoritarian countries, a combination of government processes, researcher reticence, complex shipping regulations, and patient-privacy concerns makes getting samples difficult for diagnostic companies like his.' https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/ 3) January 31st - Department of Health and Human Service issues notice that a public health emergency exists. (On January 31 there were @12,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally.) "As a result of confirmed cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), on this date and after consultation with public health officials as necessary, I, Alex M. Azar II, Secretary of Health and Human Services, pursuant to the authority vested in me under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, do hereby determine that a public health emergency exists and has existed since January 27, 2020, nationwide." https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx 4) Early Feb - CDC had test kits early in February, and they proved to be faulty due to reagent issues yielding false positives. Results from early screening kits developed in China, South Korea and Japan are now in question as screening practices in those early infected areas also improves. 5) Feb 29 - As CDC screening test issues were corrected an FDA EUA was modified to allow CLIA certified labs to submit request to begin manufacture of test kits. 6) March 12 - EUA amended to use test kits developed by Roche Molecular Systems, Inc.(RMS) while manufacture and distribution of FDA approved lab kits accelerates. The Roche kit requires widely used lab testing systems that can each process 4000 COVID-19 samples a day, 4x faster than current testing processes. 7) March 13 - TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.) approved for use. https://www.fda.gov/media/136113/download General Timeline Source: https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization From the actions above I see an ever evolving response to a novel (new) virus outbreak that is rational and prudent. What would have happened if 1.5 million defective screening kits had been allowed to be used? BTW I was a data manager at ACM Labs (CLIA certified) on over 70 FDA clinical trials projects. Anecdotally there were times where screening tools, developed internationally were faulty. It was the stringent processes in place that assisted in developing more accurate screening tools in the US. I don't claim to know everything about the whole process, but I do know there is a process in place for good reason. Edited March 14, 2020 by RocCityRoller 2
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Lurker said: Sign of the times. This was today at the Surfine supermarket in Eden. Guess which aisle and win a cupie doll... I am familiar with what empty toilet paper shelves look like. The paper towels were purchased by those who came along later. The paper bags are for the desperate! . Edited March 14, 2020 by Augie
Sundancer Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 My daughter just went to the store to get some garlic for some pasta we are making tonight. She said everything was normal. All aisles stocked, nothing seemed to be out. There must just be pockets of sheeple following each other into stupidity.
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Sundancer said: My daughter just went to the store to get some garlic for some pasta we are making tonight. She said everything was normal. All aisles stocked, nothing seemed to be out. There must just be pockets of sheeple following each other into stupidity. I’ve been fascinated by this “pocket” situation. It’s a mess here, and I wasn’t looking for months of supplies. There was a death about 10 miles from us, and a confirmation in Cincinnati before things got crazy. I’m not sure if that sets people off? Have you had any nearby incidents that the media has been obsessed with? This thing is real, but the pockets make me curious.
RaoulDuke79 Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Sundancer said: My daughter just went to the store to get some garlic for some pasta we are making tonight. She said everything was normal. All aisles stocked, nothing seemed to be out. There must just be pockets of sheeple following each other into stupidity. I expect things to calm down in a bit. When they first stated closing things is when everyone went nuts. I suppose everyone is stocked up now. I went to Costco on Thursday and it was a madhouse. My mother in law went today and said it was mostly back to normal. Edited March 14, 2020 by RaoulDuke79 2
Lurker Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 Wegman's in Hamburg at 5:45 am today (I wonder how their TP aisle looks now): https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/14/i-went-to-wegmans-at-547-a-m-saturday-oh-my-god/
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Posted March 14, 2020 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: Quick question. If you bought avocados today, do you think Corona Virus could get inside the skin? Ya know everyone was pawing at those things, as was I. rethinkIng homemade guacamole. LOL Not inside the skin, no. But it's a point that if you've purchased unpackaged fresh veg., the skin could be contaminated. As you hold the avocado to cut and scoop out, you might contaminate the edible part. Might dunk in some peroxide or bleach water (that's like 0.02% bleach or 1:100 dilution of standard 2% household bleach) for 10 min then rinse. Note that some bleach is more concentrated - 8.25% - and some is less - 1%, adjust accordingly. 9 minutes ago, Lurker said: Wegman's in Hamburg at 5:45 am today (I wonder how their TP aisle looks now): https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/14/i-went-to-wegmans-at-547-a-m-saturday-oh-my-god/ They all seem nicely positioned to be susceptible to the Sunrise Attack of the Zombie Horde. Do you think they will have fast feet and a good L pivot to present a defensive shopping cart wall?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Posted March 14, 2020 https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/working-from-home-during-a-global-pandemic-bingo?fbclid=IwAR2CBSgbhq3W9FupoVEPb75qjlj-RQ4IW3rUbRaTkOjhasF0Qn5lKS4bM3c
RocCityRoller Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: They all seem nicely positioned to be susceptible to the Sunrise Attack of the Zombie Horde. Do you think they will have fast feet and a good L pivot to present a defensive shopping cart wall? That is the Sunrise Attack of the Zombie Horde! Ironic that fear shopping like this increases your risk of getting sick. COVID or not. It is still flu/ cold season.... Time for REM
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: My hands were good, even got the Wegmans to bring a hand sanitizer station by the avocados cause ya have to pick and press the avocado to judge its ripeness right? More than any other fruit by a mile! Wegman’s is far ahead of Publix in that regard. Publix has wipes available where you get your cart, and I was generous and kept them with me. No sanitizing stations to be found anywhere. Still, the cashiers were smiling! In contrast, my last trip to the mall in a while yesterday found the Apple store with employees in surgical gloves and Purell stations all around. They’d hit the station after each customer like hospital personnel heading from one room to the next. Far more impressive than the grocery stores!
Lurker Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: They all seem nicely positioned to be susceptible to the Sunrise Attack of the Zombie Horde. Do you think they will have fast feet and a good L pivot to present a defensive shopping cart wall? Hamburg's Twinkie gauge might be running low tonight... Edited March 14, 2020 by Lurker
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Posted March 14, 2020 https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-13 Left side scrolls down for table of contents.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Posted March 14, 2020 2 hours ago, Foxx said: i thought it was a 'guesstimate' put forth by the governor of Ohio which would be essentially semantics but still a difference in wordsmithing and thus, meaning. Guesstimates put out by public officials should have logic and science behind them and they should withstand pressure-testing against comparative situations. 2 hours ago, Foxx said: i might also take exception here in the 'logic', going with the fact that China quarantined all of Wuhan and essentially ground all of the Hubei province to a halt. not exactly an apples to apples comparison. as such, the math is not complete. I see your point, but in fact Wuhan reached 1000 positive test cases Jan 25th, 2 days after the city shut down on Jan 23. So the apples are closer than you might believe. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Posted March 14, 2020 1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said: Hey Hapless, you are informed and have shared some good info here. My point is that there are a number of factors tied into the delay in getting accurate tests out. They should all be noted. Let's look at a quick timeline of the response. 1) January 22 - 580 cases of COVID-19 confirmed Globally https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 2) January - Early lack of samples to create a test stalls labs around the world in late January. 'BioMérieux just released three versions of its coronavirus test this week, after beginning work on it on January 23. Miller says that with every viral outbreak, the company’s biggest problem by far is getting access to virus and patient specimens so that it can validate its tests. Even when working with nonauthoritarian countries, a combination of government processes, researcher reticence, complex shipping regulations, and patient-privacy concerns makes getting samples difficult for diagnostic companies like his.' https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/ 3) January 31st - Department of Health and Human Service issues notice that a public health emergency exists. (On January 31 there were @12,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally.) "As a result of confirmed cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), on this date and after consultation with public health officials as necessary, I, Alex M. Azar II, Secretary of Health and Human Services, pursuant to the authority vested in me under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, do hereby determine that a public health emergency exists and has existed since January 27, 2020, nationwide." https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx 4) Early Feb - CDC had test kits early in February, and they proved to be faulty due to reagent issues yielding false positives. Results from early screening kits developed in China, South Korea and Japan are now in question as screening practices in those early infected areas also improves. 5) Feb 29 - As CDC screening test issues were corrected an FDA EUA was modified to allow CLIA certified labs to submit request to begin manufacture of test kits. 6) March 12 - EUA amended to use test kits developed by Roche Molecular Systems, Inc.(RMS) while manufacture and distribution of FDA approved lab kits accelerates. The Roche kit requires widely used lab testing systems that can each process 4000 COVID-19 samples a day, 4x faster than current testing processes. 7) March 13 - TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.) approved for use. https://www.fda.gov/media/136113/download General Timeline Source: https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization From the actions above I see an ever evolving response to a novel (new) virus outbreak that is rational and prudent. What would have happened if 1.5 million defective screening kits had been allowed to be used? BTW I was a data manager at ACM Labs (CLIA certified) on over 70 FDA clinical trials projects. Anecdotally there were times where screening tools, developed internationally were faulty. It was the stringent processes in place that assisted in developing more accurate screening tools in the US. I don't claim to know everything about the whole process, but I do know there is a process in place for good reason. Yeah, you know, RocCity, my heart is really just sick about this, but I don't have the heart to debate the timeline and missed opportunities here. I don't think we know that our screening tool is so much more accurate at this point than all the developed tests being used overseas. I have heard, but do not know, that even the Roche kit requires RNA extraction equipment which many public health and hospital labs lack. 1
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 Here’s maybe a silly question: If we had the tests, and could confirm who has actually got the virus, what would we do differently? There is no magic pill, right? If it’s Covid-19 or some other flu strain, you stay home to isolate and recuperate, hopefully. Is there something different you would do? At least initially? Also, I just heard on the news Disney doesn’t shut down until tomorrow. WHY? And who is actually there? They say the tourism industry is looking at a one trillion dollar loss, but that may largely be offset by the toilet paper industry! 2
Jrb1979 Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 The U.S. and Canada would be smart to do what Spain and France has done. Both countries have closed everything except for gas stations and grocery stores. Spain has now banned people from leaving their homes except for work or to get essentials. If you do have to leave only one person per household is allowed to leave at a time. IMO its the best way to stop the spread since a lot of people aren't taking the social distancing seriously 1
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