Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 5, 2020 Author Posted September 5, 2020 Back to School gift for this Year of Covid: 1
BillsFan4 Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 Looks like France is on the verge of a 2nd wave of covid.
shoshin Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: Looks like France is on the verge of a 2nd wave of covid. The hard shutdowns only delayed the inevitable. Heard some EU health official say all they did was cork an open champagne bottle. It was still going to shoot out once shaken. The very good news is that hospitalizations and fatalities are low compared to wave 1. Edited September 6, 2020 by shoshin
BillsFan4 Posted September 6, 2020 Posted September 6, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, shoshin said: The hard shutdowns only delayed the inevitable. Heard some EU health official say all they did was cork an open champagne bottle. It was still going to shoot out once shaken. The very good news is that hospitalizations and fatalities are low compared to wave 1. From previous conversations I know we disagree on this subject (though this time I would hope we agree that 4000 new cases a day in March and April + 25,000 deaths would absolutely be considered an outbreak/1st wave). But again, I would say the opposite - I don’t think it was inevitable. I think they became too lax. They let their guard down too much. Too many people went back to their normal lives and disregarded social distancing and masks. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/world/europe/france-coronavirus.html It’s the same story we’ve seen repeated in many places here in the US and elsewhere. and yes, very good news about their hospitalization + fatality rate so far! Edited September 6, 2020 by BillsFan4 1 1
ziltoid Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 22 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: But again, I would say the opposite - I don’t think it was inevitable. I think they became too lax. They let their guard down too much. Too many people went back to their normal lives and disregarded social distancing and masks. I know for a lot of people they are sick of being a caged pet, kind of like those lizards in a fish tank with a heat lamp. Maybe some people like that life, but it looks like the French decided it was time to rip the band-aid off and move on?
shoshin Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 An interesting summary of how a few countries approached the pandemic. Common thread of United leadership and national approaches. https://www.gatesfoundation.org/TheOptimist/Articles/world-bank-covid19-policy-economics/?utm_source=GF&utm_medium=FB&sf128215489=1&fbclid=IwAR1XKbmP99JqobjaCLmhh9rjc27ommkgfjTHolzj-7SiQJtsKn5dYXSC7MI Gates Foundation has had good perspectives throughout this.
Figster Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 On 9/6/2020 at 5:59 AM, shoshin said: The hard shutdowns only delayed the inevitable. Heard some EU health official say all they did was cork an open champagne bottle. It was still going to shoot out once shaken. The very good news is that hospitalizations and fatalities are low compared to wave 1. On 9/6/2020 at 9:49 AM, BillsFan4 said: From previous conversations I know we disagree on this subject (though this time I would hope we agree that 4000 new cases a day in March and April + 25,000 deaths would absolutely be considered an outbreak/1st wave). But again, I would say the opposite - I don’t think it was inevitable. I think they became too lax. They let their guard down too much. Too many people went back to their normal lives and disregarded social distancing and masks. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/world/europe/france-coronavirus.html It’s the same story we’ve seen repeated in many places here in the US and elsewhere. and yes, very good news about their hospitalization + fatality rate so far! You have to get the job done in a united shutdown. Not 50% of the outbreak. Not 75% of the outbreak. All of it. Or as close to all of it as you can get IMO. Until the virus becomes more then just manageable. You finished the job when the virus becomes the hunted. Everyone seems to think the country's businesses running at a quarter to half capacity. Empty stadiums, schools half empty, our whole economy crippled for month after month as some of our oldest and wisest citizens continue to fall prey to Covid 19. Everyone seems to think this is better then a 30 to 45 day united lockdown. Its not, not in my humble opinion. The US never got the job done right to begin with IMO. 4
shoshin Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Figster said: You have to get the job done in a united shutdown. Not 50% of the outbreak. Not 75% of the outbreak. All of it. Or as close to all of it as you can get IMO. Until the virus becomes more then just manageable. You finished the job when the virus becomes the hunted. Everyone seems to think the country's businesses running at a quarter to half capacity. Empty stadiums, schools half empty, our whole economy crippled for month after month as some of our oldest and wisest citizens continue to fall prey to Covid 19. Everyone seems to think this is better then a 30 to 45 day united lockdown. Its not, not in my humble opinion. The US never got the job done right to begin with IMO. The only thing worse than a half-assed lockdown is a full lockdown, followed right behind by our half-assed opening. What's been happening here is the worst of all worlds. Edited September 7, 2020 by shoshin 3
Figster Posted September 7, 2020 Posted September 7, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: The only thing worse than a half-assed lockdown is a full lockdown, followed right behind by our half-assed opening. What's been happening here is the worst of all worlds. The US has never had anything close to what I would consider to be a full nationwide lockdown IMO. I agree, its been the worst of all worlds here in the United States Perhaps the Divided States would be more appropriate...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2020 Author Posted September 8, 2020 5 hours ago, shoshin said: The only thing worse than a half-assed lockdown is a full lockdown, followed right behind by our half-assed opening. What's been happening here is the worst of all worlds. I Hear No Lies
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2020 Author Posted September 8, 2020 12 hours ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: I know for a lot of people they are sick of being a caged pet, kind of like those lizards in a fish tank with a heat lamp. Maybe some people like that life, but it looks like the French decided it was time to rip the band-aid off and move on? Where are these "caged pets" living and how are they living that makes them like "caged pets"? I don't know anyone who is living like a "caged pet", except the elderly. You know, those "Vulnerable" people who all the "I'm going to live my life and if you're vulnerable, YOU stay home" types throw off. Those people (like my 88 yr old mom) are indeed mighty tired of living caged, but no one seems to GAF about how to safely free them... 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2020 Author Posted September 8, 2020 6 hours ago, Figster said: You have to get the job done in a united shutdown. Not 50% of the outbreak. Not 75% of the outbreak. All of it. Or as close to all of it as you can get IMO. Until the virus becomes more then just manageable. You finished the job when the virus becomes the hunted. Everyone seems to think the country's businesses running at a quarter to half capacity. Empty stadiums, schools half empty, our whole economy crippled for month after month as some of our oldest and wisest citizens continue to fall prey to Covid 19. Everyone seems to think this is better then a 30 to 45 day united lockdown. Its not, not in my humble opinion. The US never got the job done right to begin with IMO. And here's the thing. One proposal is "well then we shouldn't have the schools and stadiums empty, just drop all the restrictions and open TF up!" But even these folks acknowledge "well, if you're at risk, you should continue to stay home". And there are a lot of people with risk factors, or who are living with people who have risk factors, who are just NOT going to start dining out and going out shopping for fun and remodeling their kitchens and bathrooms and going on normal vacations while there's such a high infection rate most places. So that kind of has an economy-stunting effect. There was a piece in The Economist or similar about this effect - that even in the absence of lockdowns, an unchecked pandemic tends to change people's consumer behaviors, which is why Sweden turned out to take almost as big an economic hit as their shut-down neighbors, while suffering far higher death rate. And then there's the point, that while beach-going and socializing nurses aids and caregivers come into our nursing homes to care for the elderly, "living like caged pets" is not gonna save them. 1
shoshin Posted September 8, 2020 Posted September 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: And here's the thing. One proposal is "well then we shouldn't have the schools and stadiums empty, just drop all the restrictions and open TF up!" But even these folks acknowledge "well, if you're at risk, you should continue to stay home". And there are a lot of people with risk factors, or who are living with people who have risk factors, who are just NOT going to start dining out and going out shopping for fun and remodeling their kitchens and bathrooms and going on normal vacations while there's such a high infection rate most places. So that kind of has an economy-stunting effect. There was a piece in The Economist or similar about this effect - that even in the absence of lockdowns, an unchecked pandemic tends to change people's consumer behaviors, which is why Sweden turned out to take almost as big an economic hit as their shut-down neighbors, while suffering far higher death rate. And then there's the point, that while beach-going and socializing nurses aids and caregivers come into our nursing homes to care for the elderly, "living like caged pets" is not gonna save them. What many people get--being open--is mental health. What's happening now is inhuman.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2020 Author Posted September 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, shoshin said: What many people get--being open--is mental health. What's happening now is inhuman. I'm sorry, I don't buy that. I agree that some things that are happening are inhuman -especially to our elders. It's horrible! But one of the chief arguments of the "open everything up!" folks is to KEEP THESE PEOPLE LOCKED UP BEHIND GLASS to avoid overflowing the ERs and jacking up the death rate. As for everyone else - what is so inhuman right now? We socialize with our friends, outdoors and spatially distant. We go on hikes, go biking, go canoeing. My kid worked all summer, wearing a mask all day. We go to a grocery store about once every 10-14 days and shop for some neighbors when we go, they do likewise. 2
shoshin Posted September 8, 2020 Posted September 8, 2020 8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'm sorry, I don't buy that. I agree that some things that are happening are inhuman -especially to our elders. It's horrible! But one of the chief arguments of the "open everything up!" folks is to KEEP THESE PEOPLE LOCKED UP BEHIND GLASS to avoid overflowing the ERs and jacking up the death rate. As for everyone else - what is so inhuman right now? We socialize with our friends, outdoors and spatially distant. We go on hikes, go biking, go canoeing. My kid worked all summer, wearing a mask all day. We go to a grocery store about once every 10-14 days and shop for some neighbors when we go, they do likewise. Schools? Restaurants? Businesses of many sorts? Getting together with your 5 friends in the backyard is a few hours a week. Again that’s not all life is.
BillsFan4 Posted September 8, 2020 Posted September 8, 2020 (edited) https://www.propublica.org/article/sent-home-to-die?utm_source=pocket-newtab “Sent home to die” ‘In New Orleans, hospitals sent patients infected with the coronavirus into hospice facilities or back to their families to die at home, in some cases discontinuing treatment (as soon as 23 hours after being admitted) even as relatives begged them to keep trying.’ Quote Quote It hurt enough for Johnson’s children to lose her, but then, there was what her medical records revealed: That the decision to recommend hospice was influenced by a doctor’s questionable speculation on her mental capacity; that on the day she was discharged home, her kidneys had improved to the point that she was no longer in renal failure; that with additional treatment, according to one expert who reviewed her case for ProPublica, she probably could have survived. Quote The hospital was slammed. To accommodate the influx of patients, Ochsner was converting operating rooms into makeshift intensive care units. But even so, earlier that week, Ochsner West Bank’s ICU reached 100% capacity... Nurses at West Bank told ProPublica that there was a period during the surge when every ventilator was in use, with critically ill patients waiting in line. One nurse said that her middle-aged patient died while waiting for a ventilator. “That was the hardest one,” the nurse told ProPublica. “I fought to get them a vent all day.” Quote ProPublica spoke with more than two dozen doctors, nurses, and other healthcare workers at Ochsner about their experiences during the pandemic. All asked that their names be withheld, to not jeopardize their employment. Many described how limited time and resources prevented them from giving the level of care they were accustomed to, and in some cases forced them to ration treatment. “If I could’ve doubled myself, I could’ve saved some people,” a nurse at Ochsner Baptist told ProPublica. 😢 This whole story is heartbreaking. Sadly, I worry that we will be hearing stories like this for months (and maybe years) to come. It’s not like hospitals are running to the press to tell them stories like this. ProPublica unearthed this story with a lot of investigative journalism. Edited September 8, 2020 by BillsFan4
K-9 Posted September 8, 2020 Posted September 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.propublica.org/article/sent-home-to-die?utm_source=pocket-newtab “Sent home to die” ‘In New Orleans, hospitals sent patients infected with the coronavirus into hospice facilities or back to their families to die at home, in some cases discontinuing treatment (as soon as 23 hours after being admitted) even as relatives begged them to keep trying.’ 😢 This whole story is heartbreaking. Sadly, I worry that we will be hearing stories like this for months (and maybe years) to come. It’s not like hospitals are running to the press to tell them stories like this. ProPublica unearthed this story with a lot of investigative journalism. This can’t be true because just a few days ago I read right here in this very forum that our health care systems were never overrun during this made up hoax of a pandemic. Seriously though, heartbreaking doesn’t begin to describe the anguish so many of our fellow citizens have experienced. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2020 Author Posted September 8, 2020 6 hours ago, shoshin said: Schools? Restaurants? Businesses of many sorts? Getting together with your 5 friends in the backyard is a few hours a week. Again that’s not all life is. So wait, it's inhumane and we're undergoing massive human suffering leading to depression because we can't go out to restaurants? Businesses of many sorts are suffering, most true. And it sucks. My point (which would be worth the powder to blow it to hell, except that I've read this as a viewpoint of some respected economists with data to back it) is we can't "fix" that by saying "whoo hoo, let's just drop all restrictions and open right up!". The key point is a very significant number of people have relevant preexisting conditions or live with people who do (by my count, it's >50% of the US population or more) and are just not going to resume their normal patterns of shopping, dining, and otherwise purchasing until their perception of the risk to them subsides. Even those who do want to drop all restrictions say "if you feel you're at risk, then YOU stay home". My point is if a large segment of the population hears that, nods, and says "OK, sure thing!", the economy will still suffer. 1
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