Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[shoshin]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you honestly want to try to make the argument that something like a 6-10% hospitalization rate and a true infection fatality rate currently best-estimated as 0.5-0.6% would

be accepted in a drug, a food, or a "toxin we think of as normal"?  [Hint: I don't think you can]

 

I am combatting an "n of 1" argument, as I believe you know. That's not where public policy is ever made. And no, I am not comparing Covid-19 to a peanut allergy.  

 

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm sorry, I grant the point that some people do like to overreact and exaggerate the danger of covid-19, but that's no reason to race off in the opposite direction.  The point is, this is a very challenging disease to handle because it has quite high morbidity and mortality associated with pre-existing conditions such as obesity, overweight, hypertension, and diabetes - all extremely common in the US - and with age.  It is not very serious in the vast majority of people <20 years old who catch it, but that simply makes covid-19 more challenging because they don't realize they're infected so they bop around spreading it until it reaches people who are susceptible to serious disease.  Then those last flood into the hospitals 'til they overflow, quality of care drops, and fatalities rise.

 

Hospitals shift their cases and have successfully kept ICU beds available using various strategies. So there has been flow, but not overflow of people in tents, parking garages, and the like. The hospital system has not failed except maybe in NYC in April, which was unique for a lot of reasons. With Florida, Georgia, and Texas never closing and past their peak, there was no "overflow" of hospitals resulting in the quality of care death spike that I feared would happen back in April (and yes, I posted about it back then). It just didn't happen. 

 

With cases and hospitalizations falling in those places--which again NEVER CLOSED--there's no reason to think we are going to see another hospital spike much worse than what just happened. 

 

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The appropriate analogy IMO would be to viral polio.  Many people today don't realize that polio, for ~70% of those infected, is an asymptomatic disease.  For another 25%, it's a mild viral disease with a sore throat and fever.  For the remaining 5%, it's a more significant illness and for 0.5%, it's a paralytic or fatal disease.  Polio did not become a pandemic last century because much of the population did have natural immunity, having contracted it as children, but it was still feared.  And yes, schools and other events were closed during polio outbreaks in various cities, not to mention pools, drinking fountains, and theaters.

 

Most of the polio shutdowns were for the summer and focused on children's activities (but not every summer for 19 years). Other non-essential businesses largely proceeded apace. When summer ended, most kids went back to school, though there were periodic shutdowns. There's no modern comparison to what we've done to America, shutting down so much to protect the average age of 79 with 2 comorbidities. Think about that again: We let almost everything stay open for a disease that affected our kids--except the kid things--but are shutting down everything to protect the elderly.  

[Figster]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Also from that same CDC report: "A quarter of young adults reported that they had thought about suicide in June, compared with nearly 11% of respondents overall reporting they were seriously considering suicide in the 30 days before completing the survey, doubling pre-COVID-19 rates. Black and Latino people, caregivers, and essential workers were particularly vulnerable to such thoughts."

 

There's more at stake here than that Covid-19 is dangerous. 

You bring a good argument shoshin, but there's always two sides to a story.

 

Losing loved ones young or old is enough to make many people consider suicide IMO. Over 170,000 loved ones gone and growing. I can't think of a greater loss. Or a greater pressure then trying to protect the one's you love and care for IMO. 

 

My original estimation ( 320,000 lives lost) and slow spread of the virus I predicted/feared earler in the thread is right on track unfortunately. (page 97) To many mixed signals from leadership. Not enough unity to accomplish anything substantial, except possibly slow the spread, which has now backfired on us IMO.

 

I get your points and again you bring a good argument

Edited August 19, 2020 by Figster

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

No, your question has no place in public policy determinations. You don't get that but you do understand the jungle gym argument and how it shows your argument doesn't work. 

 

If my daughter died because she went back to school, I don't think I'd have room in my mind for covid discussion. But of course I would regret anything I ever did to contribute to her death. I assume this answer makes you feel like you scored a point in our argument. It should not. 

 

Public policy is not made on the basis of the single person harmed. It's made for the whole. If you want to discuss rationally what is better for society, let's do that. There's a debate to be had between "open all the stadiums for football" and "don't open even schools until there's no more transmission." That's the area we should be discussing as a society. Your personal pain and anxiety informs your view but it doesn't advance the public policy considerations. 

Not even reading your crap anymore. Your swinging all over the place with jungle gym comments. Jungle gyms don't kill over 170,000 americans in 5 months. I read your 1st word of "no, you won't answer it. Then stopped. Which I knew you wouldn't. However, I already know the answer to it. 

 

No need to quote me again. We are done here.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Patrick_Duffy

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Not even reading your crap anymore. Your swinging all over the place with jungle gym comments. Jungle gyms don't kill over 170,000 americans in 5 months. I read your 1st word of "no, you won't answer it. Then stopped. Which I knew you wouldn't. However, I already know the answer to it. 

 

No need to quote me again. We are done here.

The inability of people to engage in civil discourse is one of society’s real challenges Right now. I’ve done nothing to insult you. You have insulted me. I’ve tried to engage you on this side issue about your hypothetical and personalizing public policy. You refuse to talk about it. 
 

As it is, you say you didn’t read my post, which is highly unlikely. But if you did, you’d see that I answered your hypothetical even though it has no place in a public policy discussion. I did that just to see if you’d keep talking about the public policy issue we are discussing since you say you care about it. 

 

I am happy to keep discussing issues with you. You can keep being insulting and call me names. I won’t reciprocate. But you should keep working to stay engaged. Taking your ball and going home is what too many people do. 
 

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[Patrick Duffy]

50 minutes ago, shoshin said:

The inability of people to engage in civil discourse is one of society’s real challenges Right now. I’ve done nothing to insult you. You have insulted me. I’ve tried to engage you on this side issue about your hypothetical and personalizing public policy. You refuse to talk about it. 
 

As it is, you say you didn’t read my post, which is highly unlikely. But if you did, you’d see that I answered your hypothetical even though it has no place in a public policy discussion. I did that just to see if you’d keep talking about the public policy issue we are discussing since you say you care about it. 

 

I am happy to keep discussing issues with you. You can keep being insulting and call me names. I won’t reciprocate. But you should keep working to stay engaged. Taking your ball and going home is what too many people do. 
 

Glad you don't make decisions for these schools. I applaud the ones that are using common sense and starting online and waiting. If you don't like it, guess you will have to learn to live with it.

[Bad Things]

I almost spit my coffee out this morning, when Trump again stated how badly New Zealand was struggling with a major outbreak of Covid-19, while the US was doing an incredible job on fighting it.

In what kind of bizarro world are we living in? 

 

The facts:

Today it was announced that we (NZ) had a total of 5 new covid-19 cases in the entire country.  Five

According to WorldOMeter the USA had 44,973.

 

I guess this shows why it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone why there is so much confusion and in-fighting happening in the US.

It starts at the top.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300087090/coronavirus-donald-trump-calls-out-nz-again-says-us-is-doing-an-incredible-job-against-covid19

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by Bad Things

[Saxum]

14 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Poor children will suffer with closed schools. How does a working, poverty stricken, single parent survive with 3 kids and either one or no computers in the home? Seriously. Many children also get their best meal of the day in school, no? Do we care? Many kids might even be home, unsupervised. Is there any risk of them catching covid19?

 

In some areas like ours schools are providing pick up of meals for breakfast and lunch including summer; they also are having bus drivers carry meals to bus stops where normally kids get on.  Fairfax County (10th biggest school system in country) is going all virtual Q1 of 2020-2021 like they did Q4 of 2019-2020 largely due to pressure from teachers despite poor ratings of online program in Q4.  And this is a school system which is considered prosperous.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

Also from that same CDC report: "A quarter of young adults reported that they had thought about suicide in June, compared with nearly 11% of respondents overall reporting they were seriously considering suicide in the 30 days before completing the survey, doubling pre-COVID-19 rates. Black and Latino people, caregivers, and essential workers were particularly vulnerable to such thoughts."

 

There's more at stake here than that Covid-19 is dangerous. 

 

That's very serious, but shoshin, people have lost jobs.  They've lost savings.  They've had family members die.   Some have been going to work every day feeling that their lives are at risk from maskholes who won't wear masks or who scream and yell and are rude to them while they're working overtime, or because they're actually HCW watching people die every day, and they feel there's no end in sight.

 

How will reopening schools (or society, without proper safeguards) help or reduce this?  In many ways, it seems to me it makes it worse - like the suicidal nurses in Brazil who are risking their lives with inadequate PPE caring for horridly ill covid patients while their President goes jet-ski-ing and says "So What?" when told that Brazil's death toll exceeded China.

I could be wrong, but I don't think you'd find the same poor mental health result in other countries that locked down but that have faith in their government to do the right thing and contain the disease as soon as possible and keep it contained as they opened up  - S. Korea, Taiwan, N. Zealand, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, etc etc

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

With cases and hospitalizations falling in those places--which again NEVER CLOSED--there's no reason to think we are going to see another hospital spike much worse than what just happened. 

 

What places are we talking about here that NEVER CLOSED and what places are we talking about that there's "no reason" to think won't exceed hospital capacity?  I can't keep up.  NYC is the biggest, most population dense city in the country with huge hospital capacity.  In numbers, we're not likely to see that kind of spike.  But it's not a good situation when "hospitals shift their cases and have successfully kept ICU beds available using various strategies" because they can't generate trained intensive care staff and studies show that when the number of patients/nurse rises, the death rate also rises in measurable and predictable ways.

 

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

Most of the polio shutdowns were for the summer and focused on children's activities (but not every summer for 19 years). Other non-essential businesses largely proceeded apace. When summer ended, most kids went back to school, though there were periodic shutdowns. There's no modern comparison to what we've done to America, shutting down so much to protect the average age of 79 with 2 comorbidities. Think about that again: We let almost everything stay open for a disease that affected our kids--except the kid things--but are shutting down everything to protect the elderly.  

 

There's a lot of fallacies here, starting with walking right by the most relevant point that I made.  I'll quote it here again for your convenience.

"Polio did not become a pandemic last century because much of the population did have natural immunity, having contracted it as children, but it was still feared.  And yes, schools and other events were closed during polio outbreaks in various cities, not to mention pools, drinking fountains, and theaters."

 

I'm not exactly sure what your point is about protecting (something durn close to 50% of the US population) that has one or two of the comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, overweight or obesity?  I've pointed out before that who dies is probably not the best yardstick - people who are hospitalized for a prolonged time and recover can still be impaired and suffer prolonged recovery.  If we are, in fact, "shutting down to protect the elderly" we're kind of doing a piss-poor job of it, but epidemiologically and in terms of public health advice, I don't think that's been the point. 

One could make an argument for focusing intensively and selectively on just that very thing and doing a better job, but that's not happening.  And I speak as someone whose 88 year old heart condition parent just spent 6 days in hospital and is now in a rehab facility for an orthopedic injury so I am past neck deep in the realities there.

[Figster]

3 hours ago, Bad Things said:

I almost spit my coffee out this morning, when Trump again stated how badly New Zealand was struggling with a major outbreak of Covid-19, while the US was doing an incredible job on fighting it.

In what kind of bizarro world are we living in? 

 

The facts:

Today it was announced that we (NZ) had a total of 5 new covid-19 cases in the entire country.  Five

According to WorldOMeter the USA had 44,973.

 

I guess this shows why it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone why there is so much confusion and in-fighting happening in the US.

It starts at the top.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300087090/coronavirus-donald-trump-calls-out-nz-again-says-us-is-doing-an-incredible-job-against-covid19

 

Almost 5 and a half million confirmed cases with less then 2 million of them recoverd and at this rate we could easily see that number hit 10 million by December. Almost doubling the amount of deaths we have right now. Staggering numbers. I'll agree with the President on one thing. All the Doctors and nurses standing on the front lines of this fight are doing an incredible job. May God bless and protect them all. I also think the job being done to develop and test a new vaccine ASAP is nothing short of incredible. 

 

It looks like we might be in for a bad winter Bad things ,

 

but I do see light at the end of the tunnel...

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

8 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

In some areas like ours schools are providing pick up of meals for breakfast and lunch including summer; they also are having bus drivers carry meals to bus stops where normally kids get on.  Fairfax County (10th biggest school system in country) is going all virtual Q1 of 2020-2021 like they did Q4 of 2019-2020 largely due to pressure from teachers despite poor ratings of online program in Q4.  And this is a school system which is considered prosperous.  

How will schools replace computers which are lost or "stolen?" Does anybody believe that none of these computers will be sold off?  School taxes might end up being higher for a totally inferior education. Like I said before, ultimately; the poor kids will suffer the most. 

 

I am very pro-labor and understand that the teachers unions are there to provide for and defend their members. That said, any claims that these unions (not the teachers themselves) care about the kids and/or taxpayers are nonsensical lies.

[shoshin]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What places are we talking about here that NEVER CLOSED and what places are we talking about that there's "no reason" to think won't exceed hospital capacity?  I can't keep up.  NYC is the biggest, most population dense city in the country with huge hospital capacity.  In numbers, we're not likely to see that kind of spike.  But it's not a good situation when "hospitals shift their cases and have successfully kept ICU beds available using various strategies" because they can't generate trained intensive care staff and studies show that when the number of patients/nurse rises, the death rate also rises in measurable and predictable ways.

 

It was not a good situation for sure. But we are on the downside of that slope in most areas and the point is that we managed it. That's what we needed to do.

 

Given all the mental health crisis statistics shared upstream from the CDC, it's time to focus on the future and getting out of this dark pit, not prolonging our time here.  

 

Quote

 

There's a lot of fallacies here, starting with walking right by the most relevant point that I made.  I'll quote it here again for your convenience.

"Polio did not become a pandemic last century because much of the population did have natural immunity, having contracted it as children, but it was still feared.  And yes, schools and other events were closed during polio outbreaks in various cities, not to mention pools, drinking fountains, and theaters."

 

I'm not exactly sure what your point is about protecting (something durn close to 50% of the US population) that has one or two of the comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, overweight or obesity?  I've pointed out before that who dies is probably not the best yardstick - people who are hospitalized for a prolonged time and recover can still be impaired and suffer prolonged recovery.  If we are, in fact, "shutting down to protect the elderly" we're kind of doing a piss-poor job of it, but epidemiologically and in terms of public health advice, I don't think that's been the point. 

One could make an argument for focusing intensively and selectively on just that very thing and doing a better job, but that's not happening.  And I speak as someone whose 88 year old heart condition parent just spent 6 days in hospital and is now in a rehab facility for an orthopedic injury so I am past neck deep in the realities there.

 

My point, and I believe you understand it is this: We need to try to protect those people that are most vulnerable to Covid, while at the same time, reopening because everyone is suffering from non-Covid complications. We simply have become a country mired in non-Covid sickness and it's no way to "live." The mental health issues, the other medical complications (my wife is a hospice social worker who works entirely with an at risk population who are largely refusing to go to doctors--anecdotal but also born out by evidence widely reported), suicide, homicide, economic fallout. I could link to many sources for each of these but one sure way out of them all is to pave a sure path to reopning, starting with schools. 

 

You'll note that the long-praised countries of Europe are starting to see cases rise again. Where? In places that just lifted their strict lockdowns in June. So what did the lockdowns accomplish? A temporary pause in the cases and deaths. What can they celebrate today? Bearing down and getting through it now that their hospitals are ready? No. They celebrate more lockdowns. The virus spreads, and after it hits hard, it settles in at a painful but manageable level. It's a clear trend--the trend being: It isn't going away until it does due to a true herd immunity (assuming we get the vaccine compliance necessary, I like Gates's prediction of mid 2021 for the US).

 

As a country, we managed our response to this poorly and we lack leadership. But part of overcoming that lack of leadership is joining together in forging a clear path forward and out of this. Some things:

 

- mask up, sure

- schools outdoors, why the heck not?

- school in shifts, who's even talking about this?

- work with businesses to try for shift work where possible to minimize contact, ok

- restaurant seating capacity limits, at least let's have the discussion

- sports, let's discuss

- nursing homes criteria, let's make these very rigid eh?

- rapid tests, deploy them to the places where they are needed the most, not just to the highest bidders

 

The list goes on. There are ways to move forward and out. But what we have now is finger pointing and a vague "We have to get better" and "too many people are dying" mantra that is not a path forward but a fear-driven refrain that does not advance us out of the problems noted above vs. "Let's full bore open up wide and let 'er rip" that ignores the seriousness of the virus. As long as these two sides won't acknowledge the others' merit or humanity, we do not move meaningful discussions forward, and we need to desperately. 

 

Especially for schools, and especially before winter sets in.   

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[teef]

yeah...at some point, teachers have to absolutely go back to work.  there should be phased, careful reopenings, but the schools shut down shouldn't be an option if the numbers dictate that.  we're all at some level of risk moving forward, and there may be certain situations that people may not be able to go back to work in a school environment, but that doesn't mean the entire system can shut down.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

We need heard immunity

 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29703982/georgia-state-qb-mikele-colasurdo-diagnosed-heart-condition-linked-covid-19
Georgia State QB Mikele Colasurdo diagnosed with heart condition linked to COVID-19
 

Quote

Georgia State quarterback Mikele Colasurdo has been diagnosed with a heart condition as a result of contracting the coronavirus and won't be able to play football this season, he announced Thursday.

 

Quote

Earlier this month, Debbie Rucker, the mother of Indiana offensive lineman Brady Feeney, wrote a Facebook post about her son dealing with heart issues after testing positive for COVID-19.

 

Myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle linked to the coronavirus, has been a concern of Power 5 conferences as they gauge the viability of playing a fall football season during the pandemic.

 

ESPN reported on Aug. 10 that myocarditis was found in at least five Big Ten athletes and in several other athletes in other conferences.

 

[TBBills]

37 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29703982/georgia-state-qb-mikele-colasurdo-diagnosed-heart-condition-linked-covid-19
Georgia State QB Mikele Colasurdo diagnosed with heart condition linked to COVID-19
 

 

 

"Yea but this is no biggie"... Queue people quoting death %.

 

Still don't know the long term effects of this virus which seems to affect anything it wants.

Edited August 20, 2020 by TBBills

[Bad Things]

Well, the liar continues to spout his lies.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122521091/coronavirus-us-president-donald-trump-ignores-the-facts-data-around-new-zealands-covid19-response 

 

“’New Zealand, it’s over, it’s over for New Zealand, everything’s gone, they’re beautiful’,” he appeared to mock.

”They had a massive breakout yesterday.”  (5 people.) - Trump

 

Despite the resurgence of the virus in the community, the outlook in New Zealand is significantly more optimistic than in the US. But Trump appears to be ignoring the hard data and continues to claim that New Zealand is seeing a “big surge” in cases.

The number of confirmed and probable cases in the US exceeds New Zealand’s entire population by almost 500,000.

Based on data published by the CDC and US Census Bureau, Covid-19 cases make up 1.66 per cent of the entire population in States. New Zealand’s cases only make up 0.03 per cent of the population.

Similarly, the infection fatality ratio (IFR) for each country is almost incomparable. New Zealand’s IFR sits at 1.33 per cent, while the ratio in the US is more than double that at 3.13 per cent.

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, Bad Things said:

Well, the liar continues to spout his lies.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122521091/coronavirus-us-president-donald-trump-ignores-the-facts-data-around-new-zealands-covid19-response 

 

“’New Zealand, it’s over, it’s over for New Zealand, everything’s gone, they’re beautiful’,” he appeared to mock.

”They had a massive breakout yesterday.”  (5 people.) - Trump

 

Despite the resurgence of the virus in the community, the outlook in New Zealand is significantly more optimistic than in the US. But Trump appears to be ignoring the hard data and continues to claim that New Zealand is seeing a “big surge” in cases.

The number of confirmed and probable cases in the US exceeds New Zealand’s entire population by almost 500,000.

Based on data published by the CDC and US Census Bureau, Covid-19 cases make up 1.66 per cent of the entire population in States. New Zealand’s cases only make up 0.03 per cent of the population.

Similarly, the infection fatality ratio (IFR) for each country is almost incomparable. New Zealand’s IFR sits at 1.33 per cent, while the ratio in the US is more than double that at 3.13 per cent.

Boy do I wish he had the same type of standards for the US... 

 

 

[SinceThe70s]

On 8/19/2020 at 2:41 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There are ways to reopen schools safely.  It will cost more - money many school districts do not have, municipalities do not have, states do not have.  The time to make that a priority and discuss what to do and how to fund it was probably back in May. 
 

 

11 hours ago, teef said:

yeah...at some point, teachers have to absolutely go back to work.  there should be phased, careful reopenings, but the schools shut down shouldn't be an option if the numbers dictate that.  we're all at some level of risk moving forward, and there may be certain situations that people may not be able to go back to work in a school environment, but that doesn't mean the entire system can shut down.  

 

I'm interested in thoughts on best practices for school re-opening. I live on Long Island with two high schoolers. At a high level, our school district is doing the following. They delayed opening by three days to September 10, so still time for refactoring. Half the kids are going Monday/Thursday, the other half Tuesday/Friday, Wednesday is a full online day with normal periods/teachers but also an overflow day when here's a holiday (i.e - Columbus Day). The other remote days are asynchronous learning. Every desk will have a plexiglas barrier in the front and on the right. Face masks are required all day (except lunch which will be social distanced). A lot more detail to the plan, but that's what stuck out for me.

 

We're sending our kids, but we opted out of the bus. Wifey and I are fortunate enough to take on that burden since we'll be working from home for the foreseeable future. I think around 10-15% of parents are opting for 100% remote learning. By contrast my company had less than 10% willing to return to the office for less than 5 days/week and the stipulation we had to wear face masks all day.

 

[plenzmd1]

no comment

 

https://dcist.com/story/20/08/20/dc-census-bureau-half-children-rental-housing-hunger/