Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

Why has outdoor schooling not even been discussed? It seems like a pretty good place to start.

 

 

NYT article on same. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-schools-reopening-outdoors.html

 

Quote

 

In the early years of the 20th century, tuberculosis ravaged American cities, taking a particular and often fatal toll on the poor and the young. In 1907, two Rhode Island doctors, Mary Packard and Ellen Stone, had an idea for mitigating transmission among children. Following education trends in Germany, they proposed the creation of an open-air schoolroom. Within a matter of months, the floor of an empty brick building in Providence was converted into a space with ceiling-height windows on every side, kept open at nearly all times.

 

The subsequent New England winter was especially unforgiving, but children stayed warm in wearable blankets known as “Eskimo sitting bags” and with heated soapstones placed at their feet. The experiment was a success by nearly every measure — none of the children got sick. Within two years there were 65 open-air schools around the country either set up along the lines of the Providence model or simply held outside. In New York, the private school Horace Mann conducted classes on the roof; another school in the city took shape on an abandoned ferry.

 

 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What do you do when it rains?  What do you do when there isn't an outdoor space associated with the school?  How do you keep the kids from roaming off?

 

 

I'm not sure, but during the pandemic I've been reading a lot about previous health related disasters and recently learned during the TB scare in 1918 over 100 cities in the country had open air schooling outside. We made it work back then, the powers that be could make it work now. 

 

If you are interested... https://www.history.com/news/school-outside-tuberculosis

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What do you do when it rains?  What do you do when there isn't an outdoor space associated with the school?  How do you keep the kids from roaming off?

 

There are a lot of possibilities, and sure, outdoors is one and there are probably solutions to all the above questions.  But I don't hear a lot of possibilities (and what it would take to make them happen) being discussed.  It's just "reopen, reopen, reopen!" at least around here.

 

Actually, if you look upthread, I noted that we needed to be creative in how to reopen for everyone. The idea is this: If we make reopening the priority, we will reopen. 

 

If we make fear the priority, we never move forward. At one point, we had a goal of flattening the curve to give healthcare time to get ready so our hospitals wouldn't bottom out (like they did in NYC). We are WAY past that and have moved our goal to be something like total safety, which is not how we live in society, even during a pandemic. 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don't hear a lot of possibilities (and what it would take to make them happen) being discussed.  It's just "reopen, reopen, reopen!" at least around here.

 

Me neither - which is why I brought it up. Not just here, though, in general I have not heard outside schooling mentioned.

Edited August 19, 2020 by wAcKy ZeBrA

[K-9]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Kids die of lots of things and it's tragic. Every number is a person and a heartbreak. 

 

But we accept some risk in life. 82 kids under 18 have died from Covid to date according to the CDC (March-Aug 12). The number of those kids with comorbidities is likely in line with other demographics, that is, high.

 

For reference, 166 kids died of flu in 2019-20. So we are probably accepting something like the same risk we accept for kids and the flu--something we do without discussing it every year. 

 

 

It’s not about kids getting sick and dying from complications of the SARS-CoV-2 virus or how many more kids die from influenza viruses each year by comparison.

 

It is all about the difference in the R naught (spreadability) of the respective viruses. According to the CDC, this corona virus has an R naught of 5.7 compared to 1.3 for the influenza virus.
 

That is a wildfire compared to a single lit match. 

 

While children under 10 are less effective spreaders, children above 10 years of age are just as effective as adults in spreading infection. 
 

This makes the issue a hugely complicated one, especially in areas with higher case loads. Stringent safe practice protocols need to be in place and ready to implement on day one. We simply aren’t there yet, both practically and from a resource allocation standpoint. 

[Figster]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What do you do when it rains?  What do you do when there isn't an outdoor space associated with the school?  How do you keep the kids from roaming off?

 

There are a lot of possibilities, and sure, outdoors is one and there are probably solutions to all the above questions.  But I don't hear a lot of possibilities (and what it would take to make them happen) being discussed.  It's just "reopen, reopen, reopen!" at least around here.

Not only when it rains. Wind and early studies indicate air pollution may help carry Covid 19 greater distances. Wind would expand the safe social distancing IMO. (If your parked down wind of a carrier) I think its easier to control and provide a safer environment indoors where air flow can be filtered and manipulated.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Figster

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

I'm sorry for your losses. 

 

n of 1 always hurts but that's not how we live. My friend died from a reaction to a common antibiotic. My neighbor died in a car accident. My grandfather died young from heart disease, likely due to eating poorly. My daughter is 18 and I let her drive, knowing that she's at the pinnacle of high risk groups for driving deaths.

 

There is risk in life that we all choose to live with each day. 

 

The risk from Covid for those without risk factors is very very small. 

 

Like I said, you will be changing that tune when if it kills your family member. It just hasn't hit home or close enough to you yet.

[shoshin]

23 minutes ago, Figster said:

Not only when it rains. Wind and early studies indicate air pollution may help carry Covid 19 greater distances. Wind would expand the safe social distancing IMO. (If your parked down wind of a carrier) I think its easier to control and provide a safer environment indoors where air flow can be filtered and manipulated.

 

My friend, that's not right. Outdoors is ALWAYS going to be safer. Consider the particles in the total volume and you can see why. 

 

6 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Like I said, you will be changing that tune when if it kills your family member. It just hasn't hit home or close enough to you yet.

 

The ani-vaccine people who have kids who died from getting vaccines make the same argument. Doesn't make it a good reason not to get vaccines, just makes it come from the heart. It's fine if that's your source, and my heart goes out to them and you, but it's not how we decide matters of public policy. 

Edited August 19, 2020 by shoshin

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

My friend, that's not right. Outdoors is ALWAYS going to be safer. Consider the particles in the total volume and you can see why. 

 

The ani-vaccine people who have kids who died from getting vaccines make the same argument. Doesn't make it a good reason not to get vaccines, just makes it come from the heart. It's fine if that's your source, and my heart goes out to them, and you, but it's not how we decide matters of public policy. 

I stand by what I said which you continue to dismiss. If you lose a very close one to you because of this, then get back with me. You can say what you want,but I dont buy for a second if your child that you send to in-person school brings it home and ***** your whole world up that you won't be saying to yourself " I should have waited"

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Actually, if you look upthread, I noted that we needed to be creative in how to reopen for everyone. The idea is this: If we make reopening the priority, we will reopen. 

 

If we make fear the priority, we never move forward. At one point, we had a goal of flattening the curve to give healthcare time to get ready so our hospitals wouldn't bottom out (like they did in NYC). We are WAY past that and have moved our goal to be something like total safety, which is not how we live in society, even during a pandemic. 

 

If we can move beyond talking about "fear", we can have a discussion.  If we can't, we're done.

 

We disagree about "total safety" vs "hospitals bottoming out".  I responded to you up-thread on that, about how hospitals in many areas are indeed pushing their capacity currently with covid-19.

 

There are ways to reopen schools safely.  It will cost more - money many school districts do not have, municipalities do not have, states do not have.  The time to make that a priority and discuss what to do and how to fund it was probably back in May. 

But I'm not hearing "let's figure out how to do this safely" it's "let's just reopen, kids won't get sick or not seriously" and "if you don't want to reopen, you're making fear a priority"

That's bullcrap, sorry.

[Figster]

16 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

My friend, that's not right. Outdoors is ALWAYS going to be safer. Consider the particles in the total volume and you can see why. 

I'm considering the small droplets that will carry longer distantces in the wind. I'm considering lightning, hail, sun protection, bee's and everything else mother nature can throw at you.  Where do you take them all when a storm comes?  Or its 90 degrees out? Or better yet, snowing?

Edited August 19, 2020 by Figster

[Patrick Duffy]

7 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

My friend, that's not right. Outdoors is ALWAYS going to be safer. Consider the particles in the total volume and you can see why. 

 

 

The ani-vaccine people who have kids who died from getting vaccines make the same argument. Doesn't make it a good reason not to get vaccines, just makes it come from the heart. It's fine if that's your source, and my heart goes out to them and you, but it's not how we decide matters of public policy. 

Got nothing to do with ani vaccine people at all. I'm speaking from the heart. It may happen to your family or it may not. But if it does I guarantee you will be singing a different tune.

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If we can move beyond talking about "fear", we can have a discussion.  If we can't, we're done.

 

We disagree about "total safety" vs "hospitals bottoming out".  I responded to you up-thread on that, about how hospitals in many areas are indeed pushing their capacity currently with covid-19.

 

There are ways to reopen schools safely.  It will cost more - money many school districts do not have, municipalities do not have, states do not have.  The time to make that a priority and discuss what to do and how to fund it was probably back in May. 

But I'm not hearing "let's figure out how to do this safely" it's "let's just reopen, kids won't get sick or not seriously" and "if you don't want to reopen, you're making fear a priority"

That's bullcrap, sorry.

Exactly. They don't seem to grasp that Hap

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, shoshin said:

The ani-vaccine people who have kids who died from getting vaccines make the same argument. Doesn't make it a good reason not to get vaccines, just makes it come from the heart. It's fine if that's your source, and my heart goes out to them and you, but it's not how we decide matters of public policy. 

 

Just so it's clear to all, we are NOT going to have an anti-vaccine argument or even an argument about whether children have actually died from getting vaccines (vs temporily but not causeally related, or from improper sterile procedures)  in this thread.

 

To anyone interested this is a definitive work on the topic.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Figster said:

I'm considering the small droplets that will carry longer distantces in the wind. I'm considering lightning, hail, sun protection, bee's and everything else mother nature can throw at you. 

 

Am I remembering correctly that you're the guy who wants the names and addresses of covid-19 positive people published and publicly available in case one of them lives next door to you and his covid-19 might blow in your open window and infect you, correct? 

 

That might be helpful for context, here.

[Figster]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Am I remembering correctly that you're the guy who wants the names and addresses of covid-19 positive people published and publicly available in case one of them lives next door to you and his covid-19 might blow in your open window and infect you, correct? 

 

That might be helpful for context, here.

Absolutely

 

Contact tracing isn't accomplishing squat in my neck of the woods...( IMO )

 

I'm more worried about my neighbors children running up to me or my 82 year old mom ( with underlying hea'lth conditions) while we're in our yard. I told you that though right?  I think your solution was wear a mask If I'm so concerned. Awesome answer to the problem I must say. Take out the trash, wear a mask. Check the mail, where a mask. Go in our own backyard to get some fresh air and sunshine. Wear a mask. Thanks

 

At the very least neighbors should be informed when a case is reported next door to them IMO.  Invasion of privacy my !@!&! 

 

That might be helpful for context, here

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Figster

[shoshin]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just so it's clear to all, we are NOT going to have an anti-vaccine argument or even an argument about whether children have actually died from getting vaccines (vs temporily but not causeally related, or from improper sterile procedures)  in this thread.

 

To anyone interested this is a definitive work on the topic.

 

Substitute your widespread drug of choice if you want. Some drugs, some foods, some toxins we think of as normal, cause death in small numbers. My point is the same. The argument "what if it's you" is the "n of 1" argument and not a valid one for public policy. But it does explain the human motivations we all have behind our perspectives. 

49 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Got nothing to do with ani vaccine people at all. I'm speaking from the heart. It may happen to your family or it may not. But if it does I guarantee you will be singing a different tune.

 

 

That's not how we make public policy decisions. The vaccine people were an example. Could use many others. There are people in my neighborhood who want to tear down all the jungle gyms on playgrounds because a kid got severely hurt. That group makes the n of 1 argument too ("What if it's your kid who falls off the 10 foot plastic castle and has a severe spinal injury?") and the "1" is tragic but that's a risk I accept.

 

“ A report released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week found that among 5,400 respondents, nearly 41% reported at least one mental or behavioral health condition, such as symptoms of anxiety, depression, trauma, or increased use of substances to cope. Anxiety symptoms reported between June 24 and 30 were three times as prevalent as the second quarter of 2019, and depression was four times as high. Young adults in particular were affected — nearly 75% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 24 reported experiencing at least one behavioral or mental health symptom.”

Edited August 19, 2020 by shoshin

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Substitute your widespread drug of choice if you want. Some drugs, some foods, some toxins we think of as normal, cause death in small numbers. My point is the same. The argument "what if it's you" is the "n of 1" argument and not a valid one for public policy. But it does explain the human motivations we all have behind our perspectives. 

 

That's not how we make public policy decisions. The vaccine people were an example. Could use many others. There are people in my neighborhood who want to tear down all the jungle gyms on playgrounds because a kid got severely hurt. That group makes the n of 1 argument too ("What if it's your kid who falls off the 10 foot plastic castle and has a severe spinal injury?") and the "1" is tragic but that's a risk I accept.

 

“ A report released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week found that among 5,400 respondents, nearly 41% reported at least one mental or behavioral health condition, such as symptoms of anxiety, depression, trauma, or increased use of substances to cope. Anxiety symptoms reported between June 24 and 30 were three times as prevalent as the second quarter of 2019, and depression was four times as high. Young adults in particular were affected — nearly 75% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 24 reported experiencing at least one behavioral or mental health symptom.”

Lol, answer the question, if it happens to you and your family from sending your child to in person school if you have the option of virtual, and your family member dies from getting it from your child, would you or would you not say to yourself, "I should have waited"? Your ignorant comment about jungle gyms has nothing to do with it.

 

You won't answer it because it ruins your whole argument. Yeah we are done here.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Patrick_Duffy

[shoshin]

29 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Lol, answer the question, if it happens to you and your family from sending your child to in person school if you have the option of virtual, and your family member dies from getting it from your child, would you or would you not say to yourself, "I should have waited"? Your ignorant comment about jungle gyms has nothing to do with it.

 

You won't answer it because it ruins your whole argument. Yeah we are done here.

 

No, your question has no place in public policy determinations. You don't get that but you do understand the jungle gym argument and how it shows your argument doesn't work. 

 

If my daughter died because she went back to school, I don't think I'd have room in my mind for covid discussion. But of course I would regret anything I ever did to contribute to her death. I assume this answer makes you feel like you scored a point in our argument. It should not. 

 

Public policy is not made on the basis of the single person harmed. It's made for the whole. If you want to discuss rationally what is better for society, let's do that. There's a debate to be had between "open all the stadiums for football" and "don't open even schools until there's no more transmission." That's the area we should be discussing as a society. Your personal pain and anxiety informs your view but it doesn't advance the public policy considerations. 

Edited August 19, 2020 by shoshin

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Substitute your widespread drug of choice if you want. Some drugs, some foods, some toxins we think of as normal, cause death in small numbers. My point is the same. The argument "what if it's you" is the "n of 1" argument and not a valid one for public policy. But it does explain the human motivations we all have behind our perspectives.

 

Do you honestly want to try to make the argument that something like a 6-10% hospitalization rate and a true infection fatality rate currently best-estimated as 0.5-0.6% would be accepted in a drug, a food, or a "toxin we think of as normal"?  [Hint: I don't think you can]

I'm sorry, I grant the point that some people do like to overreact and exaggerate the danger of covid-19, but that's no reason to race off in the opposite direction.  The point is, this is a very challenging disease to handle because it has quite high morbidity and mortality associated with pre-existing conditions such as obesity, overweight, hypertension, and diabetes - all extremely common in the US - and with age.  It is not very serious in the vast majority of people <20 years old who catch it, but that simply makes covid-19 more challenging because they don't realize they're infected so they bop around spreading it until it reaches people who are susceptible to serious disease.  Then those last flood into the hospitals 'til they overflow, quality of care drops, and fatalities rise.

 

The appropriate analogy IMO would be to viral polio.  Many people today don't realize that polio, for ~70% of those infected, is an asymptomatic disease.  For another 25%, it's a mild viral disease with a sore throat and fever.  For the remaining 5%, it's a more significant illness and for 0.5%, it's a paralytic or fatal disease.  Polio did not become a pandemic last century because much of the population did have natural immunity, having contracted it as children, but it was still feared.  And yes, schools and other events were closed during polio outbreaks in various cities, not to mention pools, drinking fountains, and theaters.

[shoshin]

Also from that same CDC report: "A quarter of young adults reported that they had thought about suicide in June, compared with nearly 11% of respondents overall reporting they were seriously considering suicide in the 30 days before completing the survey, doubling pre-COVID-19 rates. Black and Latino people, caregivers, and essential workers were particularly vulnerable to such thoughts."

 

There's more at stake here than that Covid-19 is dangerous.