BillsFan4 Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Halloween Land said: That's the best way to do it. The truth is you can't avoid diseases, we all get sick every year whether it's the common cold or the flu. Even with vaccines for the flu, we still get it sometimes. So my point is most likely we will all get the coronavirus, whether it's before the vaccine or after. You can't really avoid germs. So we need to open up like we have been doing here in NY State, which has been safe and slowly. Things will never be like it was once was before, but hopefully we can get as close as it was within a year or two. I totally agree about reopening safely, and I agree you can’t avoid all diseases. But I have no intentions of ever getting this virus. I have multiple things that put me at higher risk (like many Americans do) and I am a caretaker for 2 people who probably wouldn’t survive if they got this virus. My plan is not to get it. ? I don’t ever remember talking like this for any other pandemic. SARS, MERS (2 other coronaviruses), Ebola, etc. This country NEVER just accepted that everyone would get the virus. AFAIK, We are nowhere close to everyone having had this virus. What have most antibody studies shown? Maybe 10% at best in most places? https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail Quote The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) studied antibody testing results in five states. In Connecticut, testing indicates that nearly 5 percent of the population — approximately 167,000 people – have antibodies to the virus, an indication that they were infected at some point and might now have some level of immunity. New York’s rate of infection is nearly 7 percent. If only 7% in NY had it and it was that devastating, I can’t imagine what 100% would look like. Especially nation wide. 170,000+ deaths already. We’d easily be looking at something like 3 million deaths. link to ongoing CDC study: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html Edited August 18, 2020 by BillsFan4
Figster Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, shoshin said: We blew our window to “handle this” months ago. Our leaders failed us, both federally and at the state levels. But that ship has sailed. We can take it up with them in future elections. As a country, we cannot stay closed forever and we have a good understanding of what being open means: no spikes, hospitals can handle it, and we see a predictable fatality rate. We have other predictable diseases that we manage. We need to manage this now and urgently band together to move forward rebuilding what we’ve lost. So you test and contact trace and clean and enact distancing and ventilate and pod and etc to keep the most vulnerable as safe as possible. By the way, my nursing home relatives would rather see us than be in lock down. By like 1000000000%. Ship has sailed? Do we give up on a forest fire thats out of control when mother nature throws a monkey wrench in our plans with a change of wind speed and direction? I think not The country doesn't need a lockdown forever. The country needs a unified lockdown for 6 weeks so everyone who has Covid can get over it or seek medical attention without spread. We're talking 6 weeks, 8 weeks in current hot spots. If all goes well the US might be in a position to open back up the way you suggest. Restraunts and bars open at full capacity. Businesses weren't meant to thrive or even survive at 50% capacity. You get that right? Getting back to normal can only be accomplished when Covid 19 has been beat down to practically nothing? The US needs to prove it can carry out a united response to a pandemic so the next time around this doesn't happen in my humble opinion. Its never to late when millions of lives are at risk. Edited August 18, 2020 by Figster
shoshin Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 16 minutes ago, Figster said: Ship has sailed? Do we give up on a forest fire thats out of control when mother nature throws a monkey wrench in our plans with a change of wind speed and direction? I think not The country doesn't need a lockdown forever. The country needs a unified lockdown for 6 weeks so everyone who has Covid can get over it or seek medical attention without spread. We're talking 6 weeks, 8 weeks in current hot spots. If all goes well our country might be in a position to open back up the way you suggest with restraunts and bars able to open up at full capacity. Businesses weren't meant to thrive or even survive at 50% capacity. You get that right? Getting back to normal can only be accomplished when Covid 19 has been beat down to almost nothing? Our country needs to prove it can carry out a united response to a pandemic so the next time around this doesn't happen in my humble opinion. Its never to late when millions of lives are at risk. A 6-8 week unified lockdown in addition to all the lockdowns so far? You think businesses can afford that? That's fair to schoolkids? A lockdown that may not improve much? Yes, that ship sailed.
Figster Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, shoshin said: A 6-8 week unified lockdown in addition to all the lockdowns so far? You think businesses can afford that? That's fair to schoolkids? A lockdown that may not improve much? Yes, that ship sailed. How about whats fair to the teachers? Or all the senior citizens who are going to die because someone had the bright idea to throw fuel on the fire by packing our younger generation into buildings and classrooms? 6 weeks in comparison to months of this? Edited August 18, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan gratuitous political reference 1
Figster Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: I didn’t say Florida spiked in April. I said they had a covid outbreak. I don’t see how anyone could say that 30,000 cases in Florida isn’t an outbreak. Again, I guess it comes down to our definitions of an outbreak. 30,000+ cases certainly qualifies in my book (and most experts). Florida and Texas has more cases in March and April than numerous places in the northeast that were said to have outbreaks. So why are Florida and Texas having a bigger outbreak now than the places in the north that dealt with lower case numbers before their lockdowns? Why don’t you think a place can have a 2nd outbreaks? What do you think is stopping a 2nd outbreak besides our mitigation measures? Herd immunity? Because we have not reached herd immunity anywhere in the world that I am aware of. Definitely not anywhere in the US. Not even close. What else would prevent a 2nd outbreak from being possible? Herd immunity is the only thing that I am aware of. Otherwise the virus can easily spread to the millions of people that haven’t yet been infected. We can mitigate the spread with safety measures, but that doesn’t mean an outbreak isn’t possible. Why are we still seeing 500-1500 people dying from covid every day? Is it still all just old people in nursing homes and people with pre-existing conditions (it’s not...)? Why aren’t we protecting them yet 5 months into the pandemic? Everyone makes it sound so easy. What do we do, completely isolate them? And that would somehow be ok? Everyone else can live their life like normal, unless you’re one of the 10’s of millions who fall into the higher risk categories? Then you don’t get that same right to live your life like normal? You have to stay isolated while everyone else gets to live their life? Why can’t we just suppress the spread of this virus like most other countries (and some US states) are trying to do? Also, if we flattened the hospital curve (which we clearly didn’t, as hapless showed), then why were hospitals in Arizona sending patients out of state? Why did Gov. DeSantis call in 1500 additional nurses to help with the covid fight? Why did a couple Texas hospitals announce that they were almost completely out of space? Hopsitals may not have been completely overrun but they’ve come damn close to capacity or reached capacity. It’s happened again and again in the places that disregard the guidelines. And Again, I don’t think this should be our bar to clear. It’s a really freaking low bar. We should be trying to suppress the spread of this virus. Not just barely keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. What about all our doctors and nurses on the front lines? And the terrible stories of what they’ve went through? We don’t owe it to them to try to limit the spread? Just reopen? Also, In many places, people haven’t gone back to their normal habits even though restrictions have been lifted. So how does opening up without suppressing this virus first fix that? People still aren’t going to go back to living life like normal if they don’t feel safe. The economy still isn’t going to fully rebound until we suppress the spread of this virus. What places in the country do you think are closed? Seems like most places are open. Maybe not fully everywhere, but we see the consequences of that. They may be following the CDC reopening guidelines, which is a good thing! Here in NY everything is reopening. Just slowly and as safely as possible. Nursing homes can have visitors. They’re just restricting the numbers (smart!). Look at Texas, AZ, Florida, etc. Places that opened with no regard for the guidelines. They’re getting slammed by the virus. Thankfully it seems to be trending in the right direction now, but they still got slammed again compared to places in the north that followed the CDC reopening guidelines. So is that what you think every state should do? Disregard the guidelines and reopen everything immediately? Now, If you’re saying that we need to just keep following the reopening guidelines and continue to reopen safely (like some states have been doing), then I agree. What we really need is a nation wide coordinated plan with the federal govt. truly joining the fight but I’ve lost all hope for that. Btw, we haven’t even seen what this virus can do during flu season yet... On the subject of herd immunity it does appear we might be seeing signs of this developing in hard hit regions of the country IMO. Our saving grace perhaps... Edited August 18, 2020 by Figster
shoshin Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 51 minutes ago, Figster said: How about whats fair to the teachers? Or all the senior citizens who are going to die because someone had the bright idea to throw fuel on the fire by packing our younger generation into buildings and classrooms? 6 weeks in comparison to months of this? Months of this is in rapid decline. I deleted your political stuff but consider CA that is in lockdown and had good mask compliance: Covid-19 isn't all about politics. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted August 18, 2020 Author Posted August 18, 2020 2 hours ago, shoshin said: Months of this is in rapid decline. I deleted your political stuff but consider CA that is in lockdown and had good mask compliance: Covid-19 isn't all about politics. Shoshin, what actually is the state of covid-19 lockdown in CA? And what is the evidence of 'good mask compliance'? I find this graphic from the JHU website useful for tracking the impact of shutdowns and openings. On 18 May, Newsom basically deferred reopening decisions to the counties and many areas re-opened. I'm not aware of CA taking any measures as NYS took (strict regional metrics, ensuring sufficient contact tracers, "early warning" supervisory board for each region) - in fact, covidactnow.org says CA has insufficient contact tracers by their metrics, 23% of need. CA then stayed open with a mask mandate imposed 18 June, and closures finally on 13 July when covid-19 had already become widespread. In early July, "Gov. Gavin Newsom threatened this week to withhold up to $2.5 billion in aid to local police departments that refuse to enforce the mask rule and other pandemic-related mandates. "If they choose to not do that, we will redirect those dollars to communities that are," Newsom said, noting that state employees have already stepped up their efforts." I don't know why Newsom would threaten to withhold funding from PDs who don't enforce mask compliance some 3 weeks after the mask ordinance, if mask compliance were actually "good" - do you? What I see looking at the covidactnow map, is that covid-19 is surging in the inland counties which tend to not support distancing and mask ordinances. I am not sure what you mean by "months of this in rapid decline" as the data you show do not appear to support months of rapid decline. 2 hours ago, Figster said: On the subject of herd immunity it does appear we might be seeing signs of this developing in hard hit regions of the country IMO. Our saving grace perhaps... What do you feel are signs of herd immunity and what is the evidence we might be seeing this? Sincere question. I don't think there is "herd immunity" except in a handful of the hardest hit boroughs in NYC and some neighborhoods of Boston etc. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted August 18, 2020 Author Posted August 18, 2020 3 hours ago, shoshin said: A 6-8 week unified lockdown in addition to all the lockdowns so far? You think businesses can afford that? That's fair to schoolkids? A lockdown that may not improve much? Yes, that ship sailed. To be fair - the US has never had a unified, systematic, and widespread lockdown. Take where I live, Missouri. When the hardest-hit St Louis city and county locked down, neighboring counties (where many people live and work) were still open. So not unnaturally, people from St Louis drove to neighboring counties to dine and shop. Ditto for mask mandate. I tend to agree with you "that ship sailed" in America due to deeply divided public opinion on covid-19, based on divided and contradictory messaging. But I don't think one can logically conclude that a lockdown might not improve the situation per se, only that it would likely be ineffective in the US because we would continue to hear contradictory and divided messaging about it and the country would not unify behind it. Lockdowns have worked in the states and countries which applied them systematically and which reopened systematically and with checks and balances. 1
Figster Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Shoshin, what actually is the state of covid-19 lockdown in CA? And what is the evidence of 'good mask compliance'? I find this graphic from the JHU website useful for tracking the impact of shutdowns and openings. On 18 May, Newsom basically deferred reopening decisions to the counties and many areas re-opened. I'm not aware of CA taking any measures as NYS took (strict regional metrics, ensuring sufficient contact tracers, "early warning" board for each region) - in fact, covidactnow.org says CA has insufficient contact tracers by their metrics, 23% of need. CA then stayed open with a mask mandate imposed 18 June, and closures finally on 13 July when covid-19 had already become widespread. In early July, "Gov. Gavin Newsom threatened this week to withhold up to $2.5 billion in aid to local police departments that refuse to enforce the mask rule and other pandemic-related mandates. "If they choose to not do that, we will redirect those dollars to communities that are," Newsom said, noting that state employees have already stepped up their efforts." I don't know why Newsom would threaten to withhold funding from PDs who don't enforce mask compliance some 3 weeks after the mask ordinance, if mask compliance were actually "good" - do you? I am not sure what you mean by "months of this in rapid decline" as the data you show do not appear to support months of rapid decline. What do you feel are signs of herd immunity and what is the evidence we might be seeing this? Not seeing a 2nd spike in most of the earlier hotspots that have since cooled off I think points in that direction in my humble opinion Hapless. Myself personally, the hard hit city and state of NY is a good example. As far as evidence goes the viewpoints on what kind of percentages it takes to achieve herd immunity vary. Our positive case load walking the streets could be up to 10 times higher then reported. My personal opinion is based on observation. It appears through observation herd immunity is already occuring in parts of our country and around the world IMO.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted August 18, 2020 Author Posted August 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, Figster said: Not seeing a 2nd spike in most of the earlier hotspots that have since cooled off I think points in that direction in my humble opinion Hapless. So basically, the fact that in places like NYS masks are being worn and widespread testing and extensive contact tracing/quarantining are taking place has nothing to do with it? What other areas do you see has "earlier hotspots that have since cooled off"? Quote As far as evidence goes the viewpoints on what kind of percentages it takes to achieve herd immunity vary. Our positive case load walking the streets could be up to 10 times higher then reported. My personal opinion is based on observation. It appears through observation herd immunity is already occuring in parts of our country and around the world IMO. I don't think your observation means what you think it means. "Herd immunity" means enough people are immune that no testing or contact tracing is needed - if someone gets infected, the probability of them spreading the disease is very low because the probability they will encounter someone susceptible is low. Instead what we are seeing is flare-ups and clusters that are being contained (in NYS) by contact tracing and isolation/quarantine. Example: https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county/eden/cluster-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-eden-linked-to-same-source/ When there is sufficient "herd immunity", you don't see one case leading to 38 new cases. 1 1
Figster Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So basically, the fact that in places like NYS masks are being worn and widespread testing and extensive contact tracing/quarantining are taking place has nothing to do with it? What other areas do you see has "earlier hotspots that have since cooled off"? I don't think your observation means what you think it means. "Herd immunity" means enough people are immune that no testing or contact tracing is needed - if someone gets infected, the probability of them spreading the disease is very low because the probability they will encounter someone susceptible is low. Instead what we are seeing is flare-ups and clusters that are being contained (in NYS) by contact tracing and isolation/quarantine. To answer your question, I think everything is working in conjunction in NY and there is no right or wrong answer here. My home state of PA is starting to cool off without a 2nd spike in hard hit areas. PA reported 384 total new cases on monday, zero deaths. You will have clusters of people who are less active, individually and within the groups they entertain that don't offer up the same kind of resistance as more active groups of people IMO. Until a vaccine is available It doesn't surprise me. Herd immunity won't be reached as easily within these types of clusters. https://news.yahoo.com/models-suggest-covid-19-herd-130126904.html Edited August 19, 2020 by Figster
shoshin Posted August 18, 2020 Posted August 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So basically, the fact that in places like NYS masks are being worn and widespread testing and extensive contact tracing/quarantining are taking place has nothing to do with it? MA, PA, CN, MI, LA...and all the European countries. There has not been a place that got hit hard that has had a second wave. FL and TX are going down with limited to no shutdowns. 17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't think your observation means what you think it means. "Herd immunity" means enough people are immune that no testing or contact tracing is needed - if someone gets infected, the probability of them spreading the disease is very low because the probability they will encounter someone susceptible is low. Instead what we are seeing is flare-ups and clusters that are being contained (in NYS) by contact tracing and isolation/quarantine. Example: https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county/eden/cluster-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-eden-linked-to-same-source/ When there is sufficient "herd immunity", you don't see one case leading to 38 new cases. There's no herd "immunity," but there's something like a herd "slowdown" and that gives enough room for our hospitals to deal with what's happening and life to begin resuming, most especially schools.
SinceThe70s Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Self-testing for COVID Pour yourself a shot of tequila, then see if you can smell it. If you can, then drink it and see if you can taste it. If you can smell and taste it, you likely don't have the virus. I tested myself six times last night and was virus free each time, thank goodness. But this morning I have a headache, which could be a symptom. So I'm back to testing myself again. 2
Patrick Duffy Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, shoshin said: MA, PA, CN, MI, LA...and all the European countries. There has not been a place that got hit hard that has had a second wave. FL and TX are going down with limited to no shutdowns. There's no herd "immunity," but there's something like a herd "slowdown" and that gives enough room for our hospitals to deal with what's happening and life to begin resuming, most especially schools. Lol, what a joke. Not it's not. Schools all over the place are going to virtual learning as they should have started with in the 1st place. You couldn't be more wrong. Bottom line is it just isn't safe to return yet, you'd have to be clueless to think otherwise. College kids can't stop partying and in my area alone plus the districts around are starting the 1st 9 weeks online (elementary, middle, and high).Don't know where you are getting your "info" from but it's not quite like what you think homie, definitely not for everywhere in the country like you're making it out to be. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-college-classess-campus-211709998.html Edited August 19, 2020 by Patrick_Duffy
shoshin Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 6 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said: Lol, what a joke. Not it's not. Schools all over the place are going to virtual learning as they should have started with in the 1st place. You couldn't be more wrong. Bottom line is it just isn't safe to return yet, you'd have to be clueless to think otherwise. College kids can't stop partying and in my area alone plus the districts around are starting the 1st 9 weeks online (elementary, middle, and high).Don't know where you are getting your "info" from but it's not quite like what you think homie, definitely not for everywhere in the country like you're making it out to be. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-college-classess-campus-211709998.html FYI the PPP crowd says I’m a mainstream media Kool Aid drinker. That article is about unmasked zero distancing college partying outbreaks. If those students want to ruin their college experience, it’s in their hands. My guess is they will start to see the consequences and change course. If not they will go home. But that’s not a school setting. And regardless, schools need to be open. The risk to kids for not being in schools is far worse than any Covid risk by far. Online school for anything but rich/very dedicated high school kids is not school. It’s reading rainbow with less production value.
Patrick Duffy Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, shoshin said: FYI the PPP crowd says I’m a mainstream media Kool Aid drinker. That article is about unmasked zero distancing college partying outbreaks. If those students want to ruin their college experience, it’s in their hands. My guess is they will start to see the consequences and change course. If not they will go home. But that’s not a school setting. And regardless, schools need to be open. The risk to kids for not being in schools is far worse than any Covid risk by far. Online school for anything but rich/very dedicated high school kids is not school. It’s reading rainbow with less production value. Yes they need to be open, but not right now where it's still bad in parts of the country. And that's total BS, 97,000 kids tested positive in a matter of 2 weeks ( I will dig up the article when I have extra time). And people like you seem to forget that a lot of these teachers have underlying conditions which put them at greater risk. Teachers can't teach from the grave. Kids may get a little behind in some cases but they are resilient, they can make it up, but not if they start dying, or their family members which they bring it home from school and get them sick. Also least you not forget, A large majority of kids are raised by grandparents, which are more likely to die from it. Dont you think if kids start losing family members that just might get them "a little behind" in school too? It's people like you who don't see the big picture in this *****. It's just "open schools, open schools". Edited August 19, 2020 by Patrick_Duffy
shoshin Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said: Yes they need to be open, but not right now where it's still bad in parts of the country. And that's total BS, 97,000 kids tested positive in a matter of 2 weeks ( I will dig up the article when I have extra time). And people like you seem to forget that a lot of these teachers have underlying conditions which put them at greater risk. Teachers can't teach from the grave. Kids may get a little behind in some cases but they are resilient, they can make it up, but not if they start dying, or their family members which they bring it home from school and get them sick. Also least you not forget, A large majority of kids are raised by grandparents, which are more likely to die from it. Dont you think if kids start losing family members that just might get them "a little behind" in school too? It's people like you who don't see the big picture in this *****. It's just "open schools, open schools". Who do you think reports the most cases of child abuse? Neglect? Schools. What do you think the long term consequences are to mental health? We already see the short term consequences in society at large in violence, suicides, depression. At risk teachers like everyone can make their own decisions. You know how many deaths there are in PA of kids under 18 from Covid? Zero. Kids need to be in school. Edited August 19, 2020 by shoshin
Patrick Duffy Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, shoshin said: Who do you think reports the most cases of child abuse? Neglect? Schools. What do you think the long term consequences are to mental health? We already see the short term consequences in society at large in violence, suicides, depression. At risk teachers like everyone can make their own decisions. You know how many deaths there are in PA of kids under 18 from Covid? Zero. Kids need to be in school. Teachers Can't report things like that if they are dead Einstein. Glad a lot of these people running schools don't think careless like you do. Either way, it's not happening because until some of these numbers go at least 14 days with no cases, a lot of schools will remain virtual. Get used to and cry dumb ***** elsewhere. Edited August 19, 2020 by Patrick_Duffy
shoshin Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said: Teachers Can't report things like that if they are dead Einstein. Glad a lot of these people running schools don't think careless like you do. Either way, it's not happening because until some of these numbers go at least 14 days with no cases, a lot of schools will remain virtual. Get used to and cry dumb ***** elsewhere. Is there some reason you can't keep conversation civil? There's a place for this: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/forum/14-politics-polls-and-pundits/ Some historical perspective: How much do you think this increases for 2020 in NYC, even including the April bomb? When you have that answer, you may have perspective about how life has always gone on, except now for some reason. Edited August 19, 2020 by shoshin
Bill from NYC Posted August 19, 2020 Posted August 19, 2020 Just now, Patrick_Duffy said: Can't report things like that if they are dead enstein. Glad a lot of these people running schools don't think stupid like you do. Either way, it's not happening because until some of these numbers go at least 14 days with no cases, a lot of schools will remain virtual. Get used to and cry dumb ***** elsewhere. Poor children will suffer with closed schools. How does a working, poverty stricken, single parent survive with 3 kids and either one or no computers in the home? Seriously. Many children also get their best meal of the day in school, no? Do we care? Many kids might even be home, unsupervised. Is there any risk of them catching covid19? Teachers (imo) need to decide whether or not they are "essential." So does society. Do you have any suggestions that might help the situation for disadvantaged kids, or are you going to call me names like you did to another poster?
Recommended Posts