Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It is great that star NBA players and politicians have been able to obtain immediate testing for the Covid19 disease. 

I don't wish them to go without.

 

But stories like this of ordinary working men and women are numerous, and ridiculous.  "No, you can't be tested"  "OK, you can, but return to hospital and be in isolation 2 days (taking it from someone else who needs it).  This is the story of a 58 yr old woman with an auto-immune disease and asthma as underlying conditions:

https://abc7chicago.com/6011478/

 

"Arrived at the hospital Tuesday evening around 6:30. Had high fever and respiratory issues. Flu-like symptoms," she said.  Doctors at AMITA Health Adventist Medical Center La Grange would not test her for the virus because she had not visited a country considered high risk for the virus, or been in known contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19: "Under the guidance and direction of the Illinois Department of Public Health, this patient did not meet the clinical criteria for COVID-19 testing," AMITA Health said. "Therefore, the hospital was not able to test this patient. We are strictly adhering to the guidelines established by our state department of public health."

Pettrone said after ABC7 inquired and after she was discharged, the hospital called her, saying she could be tested. But she would have to come back to the hospital and go into two-day isolation.  Pettrone said it's a tough decision because she would be taking that isolation room from others, who may need it more.

The 2-day isolation is apparently to wait for the test results; it's apparently OK to have her walking around and potentially infecting others if she's NOT tested, but if she actually gets tested then she must isolate. ?

 

I could post 3 or 4 more from news stories around the country and from Facebook without even looking.

 

This is not how it's supposed to work.  We are not going to contain this if we can't test EVERYONE who has relevant symptoms, including just fever!

 

Meanwhile, Korea can now test 15,000 people per day and China has developed a 15 minute test that looks like a pregnancy kit:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-15/China-develops-COVID-19-detection-kit-that-delivers-results-in-15-min--O6aPGKuzGo/index.html

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

It is great that star NBA players and politicians have been able to obtain immediate testing for the Covid19 disease. 

I don't wish them to go without.

 

But stories like this of ordinary working men and women are numerous, and ridiculous.  "No, you can't be tested"  "OK, you can, but return to hospital and be in isolation 2 days (taking it from someone else who needs it).  This is the story of a 58 yr old woman with an auto-immune disease and asthma as underlying conditions:

https://abc7chicago.com/6011478/

 

"Arrived at the hospital Tuesday evening around 6:30. Had high fever and respiratory issues. Flu-like symptoms," she said.  Doctors at AMITA Health Adventist Medical Center La Grange would not test her for the virus because she had not visited a country considered high risk for the virus, or been in known contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19: "Under the guidance and direction of the Illinois Department of Public Health, this patient did not meet the clinical criteria for COVID-19 testing," AMITA Health said. "Therefore, the hospital was not able to test this patient. We are strictly adhering to the guidelines established by our state department of public health."

Pettrone said after ABC7 inquired and after she was discharged, the hospital called her, saying she could be tested. But she would have to come back to the hospital and go into two-day isolation.  Pettrone said it's a tough decision because she would be taking that isolation room from others, who may need it more.

The 2-day isolation is apparently to wait for the test results; it's apparently OK to have her walking around and potentially infecting others if she's NOT tested, but if she actually gets tested then she must isolate. ?

 

I could post 3 or 4 more from news stories around the country and from Facebook without even looking.

 

This is not how it's supposed to work.  We are not going to contain this if we can't test EVERYONE who has relevant symptoms, including just fever!

 

Meanwhile, Korea can now test 15,000 people per day and China has developed a 15 minute test that looks like a pregnancy kit:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-15/China-develops-COVID-19-detection-kit-that-delivers-results-in-15-min--O6aPGKuzGo/index.html

Am I allowed to say our collective preparation and response has been “embarrassing?” There is simply no excuse for this ineptitude. None. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

Am I allowed to say our collective preparation and response has been “embarrassing?” There is simply no excuse for this ineptitude. None. 

 

Yes

 

I mean, ***** happens; tests that are supposed to work don't, production delays happen.  It shouldn't happen, but OK, it happened.  Cowboy up, acknowledge the problem, fix it, go forward.

The thing that's bothersome is to have the head (people in charge) not be able to accurately acknowledge the reality of the situation.

 

Don't tell the public there will be 1.5 million tests, or 5 million tests, or that every American can get tested (at drive-thru clinics at Walmart no less), when the fact of the matter is that at this point, people with relevant symptoms who go to hospitals and wish to avoid infecting others are not able to be tested because they don't meet criteria that are almost certainly not reflective of the situation we face (travel to specific countries or known contact with an infected person).   This is now a much broader problem, as WHO's pandemic declaration acknowledges; contact with a known infected person when all of the experts acknowledge we are very likely seeing community spread is really irrelevant, someone could easily be infected sitting on the same plane or train with an infected person, sitting near them at the airport, or just packed cheek-by-jowl at the bar...

 

[plenzmd1]

For @K-9 and @Hapless Bills Fan, these mistruths only make it worse. 
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

For @K-9 and @Hapless Bills Fan, these mistruths only make it worse. 
 

 

 

Yes, I don't know if it is deliberate lies or misunderstandings or delusions, but for any political philosophy it's very counterproductive to be anything but meticulously straight-shooting in times like these.  The most uninformed people have a weasel-word and a bull#### detector installed.

 

When things happen like your friend or fellow parent or neighbor takes her husband (who has air traveled recently, but not to Italy or S. Korea) or her son to the ER with high fever and cough, he tests negative for flu and other viruses, and he can't be tested for covid-19 because he doesn't meet the DOH criteria of travel to specific countries or exposure to a known infected person, there's a whole cluster of people who say "Now Waitaminut Here!" when they hear national leaders, be they politician or NIH/CDC, say that 1.5 million or 5 million tests will be available by the end of the week - and then they aren't. 

It's not about politics, it's about hearing one thing and experiencing another.

 

IMO the difference between the panicked and counter-productive behavior in this country (like buying TP off the shelves) vs. countries like Singapore and Taiwan where they have been publicizing the virus and the need for public health measures far more widely but the citizens seem very calm and matter-of-fact in the face of masks, protective gear, and restrictions, is a feeling of trust that the government is speaking truth to them and acting for the collective good, and if everyone collectively does their part all will be well.

 

And I'll stop here because I truly don't want to derail this into competing political philosophies, but hopefully people can agree that we need leaders to speak consistent facts to the people they lead and in a health emergency situation it's a problem when this doesn't happen, even if it's not deliberate untruth.

[ChevyVanMiller]

I work for the Hilton in Niagara Falls, Ontario. We just received word from Niagara parks that they are shutting down all Niagara Falls attractions until April 6th.

[Cripple Creek]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

[Saxum]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

My wife has a team in Boston and they shut down, all work from home. One young but critical guy kept going to the office. He said he needed his huge double monitors to handle large spreadsheets, and it’s a legit thing. He doesn’t have the monitors at home, and he’s not allowed to take those from work. She said “go home now, the monitors will arrive at your house”. She needed him more than the cost of the monitors, so she bought them for him. NOT real expensive, but not everyone has the tools to get the job done from home. 

 

Same with some folks in Pittsburgh. Not everybody has a work laptop. They realized that needs to be corrected as they may shut down next. Get to work plugging these holes!

 

For my job at work I have 2 24" screens and used to have 3 screens before another group higher in pecking order said "mine" and we were moved to corner.

I have been told that there is discussion at my agency/work area about requiring work from home but there is no way that I could do what I do via laptop (other than just replying "Acknowledged" or "Investigating" which many do).  The other issue is unlike other groups we were not issued laptops since we were told it is requirement that we work in C3 (command center) and we are not allowed to work from home like some other groups do.  In addition when the machines were "upgraded" to Windows 10 RDP was disabled and that is how remote workers connected.   Just telling us "work from home" is not a solution for some jobs.

18 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

I work for the Hilton in Niagara Falls, Ontario. We just received word from Niagara parks that they are shutting down all Niagara Falls attractions until April 6th.

 

They are shutting off the falls!

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That is important to establish!  But how do you know that hasn't occurred, and today's postings were provided by his ghost?

 

He has not called anyone an idiot. His account was hacked.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Tourette Syndrome.  I swear a close relative had it.  Words just rattle out without the speaker’s mind analyzing and filtering as they go.

[Sundancer]

This is an interesting take from an economics blog I follow.

 

 

Quote

 

Not sure how aware you are of what’s happening here but the British government is taking a decidedly different approach to most other nations. They are not shutting schools or cancelling large gatherings or recommending self-isolation. They’re taking a longer view and saying if that happens it will be a way off yet. The policy is led by the scientists.

It’s a very bold approach, the govt is coming under a lot of pressure to do what other nations are doing, there’s a lot of shouting to DO MORE, but so far they’re ignoring it. It’s kind of fascinating to see it play out. If you have time, today’s press conference is really worth a watch, the chief scientific and health advisers give a pretty detailed explanation of what they’re doing (Johnson introduces and then the scientists start talking at 31.50). They don’t say this explicitly but their bet is that what China and South Korea are doing is not economically or psychologically sustainable and will just lead to another peak. (My friend has drawn a cute visual explanation of the thinking here).

In this press conference they also make a pretty persuasive case that cancelling large gatherings is pointless and may be counter-productive.

…One more thing – good summary of the arguments the govt scientists made in that press conference, in this Guardian report. eg “closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%. Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms … have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective”

...

3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.

4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

 

Unfortunately from everything I know, I think this article is true:

"Former FDA officials I spoke with said that during past outbreaks, EUAs could be granted in just a couple of days. But this time, the requirements for getting an EUA were so complicated that it would have taken weeks to receive one, says Alex Greninger, the assistant director of the virology division at the University of Washington Medical Center"

 

This is the Medical Center associated with the flu project group that was told to stop.  It's not just clinical labs, but waiving the guidelines that all testing must be done within a qualified clinical lab provided appropriate infection protocols are in place. 

You don't want faulty tests used, and you don't want infectious samples being waived around a building without appropriate precautions, but it should not take weeks to assure that the test is validated and to enquire into the infection control procedures and assure they are appropriate.

 

In an email, an FDA spokesperson denied that the agency acted slowly. Ensuring the validity of tests is important, she noted, to prevent false results.

 

The latter statement is true, but does not justify the slow actions.  Someone who knows what they're doing can read a clinical test validation protocol and make any relevant criticisms in a couple hours - maybe a day max.  They can work proactively with the group - send them a template format and "I'm having trouble finding what I need in the material you sent me, could you help by putting your results in this format?".   Put them in touch with a local biotech industry mentor to help with this - Lord knows they're leaking out of the walls in Seattle.  That might cause a delay of another 2 days while the group re-formats their submission.  That's how you assure quality without sacrificing much speed.

 

Quality review does not mean slow review.  The real problem is that the minions at the FDA had no direction from leadership to make this a priority.

 

[Foxx]

13 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

This is an interesting take from an economics blog I follow.

 

 

...Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

 

from the 27th of February. testing flaw?

 

Coronavirus: Japanese woman tests positive for second time

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities have said is the first such case.

 

The woman, who is in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February.

 

The development came as the prime minister, Shinzō Abe, said Japan’s entire school system, from elementary to high schools, would be asked to close from Monday until the spring break late in March to help contain the outbreak.

 

The health ministry confirmed the woman’s case was the first in Japan where a patient tested positive for a second time after being discharged from hospital.

 

Cases of second positive tests have been reported in China. The outbreak has spread rapidly and widely, infecting about 80,000 people globally and killing nearly 2,800, the vast majority in mainland China.

 

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Prof Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine. He said much remained unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not biphasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring. ...

 

NYT article disputing  the above...

They Recovered From the Coronavirus. Were They Infected Again?

Edited March 14, 2020 by Foxx

[ChevyVanMiller]

41 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

I work for the Hilton in Niagara Falls, Ontario. We just received word from Niagara parks that they are shutting down all Niagara Falls attractions until April 6th.

Being told now that they think the Ontario government will close down the casinos by Monday.

[BillsFan4]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

It is great that star NBA players and politicians have been able to obtain immediate testing for the Covid19 disease. 

I don't wish them to go without.

 

But stories like this of ordinary working men and women are numerous, and ridiculous.  "No, you can't be tested"  "OK, you can, but return to hospital and be in isolation 2 days (taking it from someone else who needs it).  This is the story of a 58 yr old woman with an auto-immune disease and asthma as underlying conditions:

https://abc7chicago.com/6011478/

 

"Arrived at the hospital Tuesday evening around 6:30. Had high fever and respiratory issues. Flu-like symptoms," she said.  Doctors at AMITA Health Adventist Medical Center La Grange would not test her for the virus because she had not visited a country considered high risk for the virus, or been in known contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19: "Under the guidance and direction of the Illinois Department of Public Health, this patient did not meet the clinical criteria for COVID-19 testing," AMITA Health said. "Therefore, the hospital was not able to test this patient. We are strictly adhering to the guidelines established by our state department of public health."

Pettrone said after ABC7 inquired and after she was discharged, the hospital called her, saying she could be tested. But she would have to come back to the hospital and go into two-day isolation.  Pettrone said it's a tough decision because she would be taking that isolation room from others, who may need it more.

The 2-day isolation is apparently to wait for the test results; it's apparently OK to have her walking around and potentially infecting others if she's NOT tested, but if she actually gets tested then she must isolate. ?

 

I could post 3 or 4 more from news stories around the country and from Facebook without even looking.

 

This is not how it's supposed to work.  We are not going to contain this if we can't test EVERYONE who has relevant symptoms, including just fever!

 

Meanwhile, Korea can now test 15,000 people per day and China has developed a 15 minute test that looks like a pregnancy kit:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-15/China-develops-COVID-19-detection-kit-that-delivers-results-in-15-min--O6aPGKuzGo/index.html

Yeah I am seeing Tons of stories like this all over the place. From doctors, nurses, patients, media members trying to get tested, etc. (I started collecting some of them. I have a whole page of them so far and that was just in about 30 minutes of looking)

 

I have a friend who’s a doctor. He said trying to get someone tested in his area is an absolute nightmare.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Sundancer said:

This is an interesting take from an economics blog I follow.

 

 

 

 

There are some points of sense there.   Namely, we do need people to become immune; epidemics ultimately diminish in intensity and die out when sufficient people are immune. We ultimately need about 35-50% of the population to catch the virus and develop immunity.  The question is having that happen at a slower pace, so that the health care system is not overwhelmed.

Unfortunately, the quality of every model used depends upon the assumptions used to generate it.

 

"Closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%. Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms, as advised by the government, have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective."

This differs substantively from the models produced by a number of other very very good researchers as far as the impact and duration of social isolation measures such as closures, which is the reason other countries are enacting different measures.  (see links upthread)

As far as their model, I think the first questions are: will self-isolation for 7 days actually be effective, when the disease may last for 14 or 21 days and people may continue to shed virus after symptoms resolve?  What about the observation that people may be infectious for 1-2 days before they show symptoms?  These are assumptions in the model that seem to fly in the face of actual data about the behavior of the infectious agent, the time course of the disease, etc.  (see Foxx article below)

 

Then we get to the psychosocial aspect: will people with mild symptoms actually self-isolate for 7 days?  Perhaps, if their jobs are guaranteed and they have paid time off...does that still apply to all or most Brits?  What measures do they have in place to assure that people who are self-isolating are able to get food, or does self-isolation mean "I still go out and go shopping, I just don't go to the parade"?
 

I'm going to guess that in 2 weeks - 1 month, Britain's hospitals will be full to capacity with people in need of respirators being triaged and some left to die, and there will be an outcry.  Of course, we could see that too if people don't behave with sense here.

Oh, and in the linked article: "The government accepts that both care homes and nursing homes will be difficult to defend from the virus as people circulate in and out of hospital so frequently. The overall mortality rate is 1% but could be higher among elderly people."

 

In other words, "we know our policy won't protect vulnerable old people, and we're OK with that?"  Ay Karumba!  Also I don't know where they are getting their 1% overall mortality rate...globally right now WHO says 3.8%, and there's a lot of experience that says it is DEFINITELY much higher among elderly people, 15% in the ">80 yrs" set.

OK, my "BS detector" just sproinged.  And yeah, they're basically saying that the "Book" on the impact of social distancing on epidemics is all baloney.  It's possible, but books written outside a crisis by careful scientific researchers perusing data VS. decisions reached by politicians facing a crisis....what are the odds?

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

from the 27th of February. testing flaw?

 

Coronavirus: Japanese woman tests positive for second time

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities have said is the first such case.

 

The woman, who is in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February.

 

The development came as the prime minister, Shinzō Abe, said Japan’s entire school system, from elementary to high schools, would be asked to close from Monday until the spring break late in March to help contain the outbreak.

 

The health ministry confirmed the woman’s case was the first in Japan where a patient tested positive for a second time after being discharged from hospital.

 

Cases of second positive tests have been reported in China. The outbreak has spread rapidly and widely, infecting about 80,000 people globally and killing nearly 2,800, the vast majority in mainland China.

 

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Prof Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine. He said much remained unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not biphasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring. ...

 

NYT article disputing  the above...

They Recovered From the Coronavirus. Were They Infected Again?

 

If people don't develop lasting immunity from an infection with this, we're in deep kim-chee. 

But yeah, my guess from reading the story would be that the woman tested positive on a throat swab when she was initially infected, negative on a throat swab for whatever reason while still harboring the virus in her lungs (a certain percentage of false negative results from throat swabs are reported to be a general testing problem), and then positive again when she developed more severe symptoms.

There are reports that recovered patients may shed infectious virus for weeks after recovery, so if the virus is still present and being kept in check at a low level by the patient's immune response, it would make sense that in some susceptible people it could flare up.

The "jam jar" analogy is good: "Dr. Lipsitch offered an analogy: a jam jar with mold on top. Scraping off the surface might give the impression that the jam is now mold-free, but in fact the jar may still contain mold that continues to grow."

But bottom line, I think it's another line of evidence that the UK's 7-day self quarantine measure may be....inadequate.

[BillsFan4]

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Separate post for @BillsFan4 ??

 

social distancing: (edit, this was supposed to be a separate post. Sorry hapless)

 

[edit: done it for ya @BillsFan4]

[BillsFan4]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Separate post for @BillsFan4 ??

 

social distancing: (edit, this was supposed to be a separate post. Sorry hapless)

 

[edit: done it for ya @BillsFan4]

 

?  ?

[plenzmd1]

I have not read this entire thread, but seems all the stores IN Richmond VA are sold out of chicken in all forms. Any know why? Or is it just like TP and people follow the herd?