Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 26, 2020 Author Posted July 26, 2020 23 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: And sure as chit as soon as I said no talk of walking back... lord knows we are all screwed up with this thing. sorry if I come across as an ass, ( course it’s cause I am) this poop is just getting to me. It's getting to all of us. It's been reported that in a phone conference with Governors and civic leaders this past Wednesday, Dr Birx warned that "aggressive action" is needed now to curb covid-19: "Dr. Deborah Birx, a leader of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, warned state and local leaders in a private phone call Wednesday that 11 major cities are seeing increases in the percentage of tests coming back positive for COVID-19 and should take “aggressive” steps to mitigate their outbreaks. The cities she identified were Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. The call was yet another private warning about the seriousness of the coronavirus outbreaks given to local officials but not the public at large. It came less than a week after the Center for Public Integrity revealed that the White House compiled a detailed report showing 18 states were in the “red zone” for coronavirus cases but did not release it publicly." This is in contrast to a more positive tone in the President's televised briefing: "The president offered a rosier picture of the pandemic than Birx, focusing on examples of improvements in the fight against the virus, such as better treatment with the drug remdesivir" It's also pretty freakin' useless: "It’s unclear who heard the warnings and was invited to the call, which was hosted by the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and closed to the press. Baltimore and Cleveland were two of the cities Birx warned were facing rising test positivity, but a spokeswoman for the Cleveland mayor’s office, Nancy Kelsey-Carroll, said they did not participate in the call. And Baltimore health department leaders didn’t know about it, agency spokesman Adam Abadir said in an email." The same is true of St Louis, another city mentioned: "But representatives from the St. Louis mayor’s office, the St. Louis County executive’s office and the Missouri governor’s office said they were unaware of the phone call. “I found out about it through the media, actually,” said Dr. Alexander Garza, head of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force. “Nobody that I know spoke with the White House.” A spokeswoman for St. Louis County Emergency Management said her agency was invited to participate in the call but couldn’t. “During the time of the briefing, there was a state planning meeting for all St. Louis regional emergency preparedness staff including hospitals, emergency management officials, and local public health leaders in anticipation of students returning to school. Therefore, we were unable to attend,” Ann Vastman said in an email. This is farcical - a phone call to warn states and civil leaders that they must take aggressive, immediate action against covid-19 when key leaders in the cities named aren't even aware of the call? This is wrong on so many levels. There needs to be a unified voice the public can rely upon - you can't say one thing in a public televised briefing and other things in a private conference in today's media age. You can't communicate effectively when the people you need to reach aren't able to listen or even aware of your call. Third WTF, man: Dr. Birx said local health departments should be watching positivity rates closely. “When you first see that increase in test positivity, that is when to start the mitigation efforts,” she said in a recording obtained by Public Integrity. “I know it may look small and you may say, ‘That only went from 5 to 5-and-a-half [percent], and we’re gonna wait and see what happens.’ If you wait another three or four or even five days, you’ll start to see a dramatic increase in cases.” and "Among her recommendations were to trace the contacts of patients testing positive for COVID-19 in areas where test positivity is going up". Part of leadership is saying to people "what do you need to Get Your Job Done?" Training and putting contact tracing in place was part of the CDC's recommendation for reopening - so many contact tracers per 100,000 population. So if contact tracing has NOT been taking place all along, why not? Maybe it's not something Dr Birx saying "do it" can fix. Maybe it's money, or interagency turf wars, or who knows? But effective leadership means finding out. Then, when testing results are lagging by week or more, contact tracing is ineffective. Ask what local health officials need, and maybe she'd hear "faster testing turn around" "fix the lag in testing" etc - and maybe that's something that needs addressed on a national level if it involves national labs like Quest and Labcorps. Alex Garza, the St Louis Pandemic Task Force leader, is totally legit - a Public Health professor at SLU who used to be Chief Medical Officer for DHS. We're luck to have him here. I guarantee you he needs Birx to tell him "contact trace and take action when you see a small increase in positivity" like Granny needs egg sucking lessons. Anyway, OK, that was a giant vent about something that is getting to me, but yeah - "immediate aggressive action" sounds like awareness on the part of the White House Task Force that things are spiraling out of control in ~ a dozen communities and shutdowns may be needed.
BillsFan4 Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html CDC revised its forecast of total deaths. They’re now predicting 160-175k by August 15th (3 weeks from today). We’re at 144k now. That’s 15,000 to 30,000 deaths over the next 3 weeks. I hope that ends up being an overestimate (especially the higher estimate). I’m starting to get worried that this could be another one of those really painful stretches. I pray it’s not. That month where we lost 2000+ a day was horrible. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-updates-us-death-toll-rising-187percent-higher-than-last-week/ar-BB178bZB Quote COVID-19 patients in Arizona are being transferred to New Mexico because of a lack of beds. Some hospitals in Louisiana are also at capacity. Facilities in Lake Charles and Lafayette are transferring patients to New Orleans for treatment, the memo said. And in Texas, Hidalgo County for weeks has warned its hospitals are at capacity. The crematorium in the county, according to the FEMA memo, has a two-week waitlist. It is now relying on refrigerated morgue trucks. Meanwhile, Georgia and Kentucky saw their single-day biggest case totals in a week that also saw California (157), Florida (173), and Texas (197) all report record daily death tolls. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its U.S. coronavirus death toll projection Thursday, saying it now expects 175,000 deaths by Aug. 15. US COVID-19 death tally 18.7% higher than last week Hoping for the best though. Treatments for this virus are much better than they were at the beginning of this pandemic. Quote Coronavirus updates: 'This virus is controllable,' WHO says Controlling the virus takes 'an all-of-government approach,' WHO says While the U.S. remains the nation with the most coronavirus cases and fatalities, some countries "have been able to control the virus," said Dr. Maria VanKerkhove, the World Health Organization's lead expert on COVID-19. "We do see signs of hope. In some countries they have been able to control the virus. This virus is controllable," VanKerkhove told "Good Morning America" Friday. "Even countries that are really overwhelmed right now can turn things around." No matter if a country is wealthy or poor, urban or rural, VanKerkhove said control is due to "quick isolation, identification, care of patients." "This is not just a health sector response. This is an all-of-government approach -- meaning that every sector needs to be involved," she said. VanKerkhove also stressed the importance of "empowering individuals so that they know what they can do to prevent themselves from getting infected" -- like social distancing, hand washing, wearing masks and being vigilant. I’ve pretty much lost all hope for a coordinated national response at this point.
Saxum Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Anyway, OK, that was a giant vent about something that is getting to me, but yeah - "immediate aggressive action" sounds like awareness on the part of the White House Task FARCE that things are spiraling out of control in ~ a dozen communities and shutdowns may be needed. Typo.
The Dean Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 55 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Video on safety measures for COVID-19 virus. This was posted in the Info Only thread,. Since my post isn't information, but a question, I responded here. This video was posted to YouTube on April 3rd. I'm wondering if all the info/advice is still accurate and current. Given the surge of the virus in this very hot summer, I'm wondering about the claim of small change in temperature killing the virus is still considered to be a "fact". Perhaps Hapless can weigh in.
Saxum Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 I do not view every post in this thread due to some posters who IMO have a political agenda to push and I missed it. I deleted it from other thread. There is quite a bit of useful information in it however. I do not agree with everything which is posted even that which is pushed by CDC because they are led my political appointees and often they are given instructions from higher ups. I worked on US Census 2000 program and we had software and hardware ready for online census then but a political appointee cancelled program because his external party investigation was it was most likely to increase voting numbers of opposition party. All of that money was thrown down the drain for political gain. I am sure CDC has same sort of directions for I have seen this from my current agency.
Figster Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html CDC revised its forecast of total deaths. They’re now predicting 160-175k by August 15th (3 weeks from today). We’re at 144k now. That’s 15,000 to 30,000 deaths over the next 3 weeks. I hope that ends up being an overestimate (especially the higher estimate). I’m starting to get worried that this could be another one of those really painful stretches. I pray it’s not. That month where we lost 2000+ a day was horrible. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-updates-us-death-toll-rising-187percent-higher-than-last-week/ar-BB178bZB Hoping for the best though. Treatments for this virus are much better than they were at the beginning of this pandemic. I’ve pretty much lost all hope for a coordinated national response at this point. We can stop this with a Nationally unified 30 day lockdown IMO. Prioritize the US work force. Shelter in place individually until each individual test negative from Covid 19. The positive case load gets quarantined until testing negative and then logged into a data base for future reference. We need this information to properly identify where more specifally by location herd immunity is being reached to be reviewed in the event of future outbreaks. This can be as simple or as hard as we want to make it. I think we can still do this Billsfan4... Edited July 26, 2020 by Figster
Saxum Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 There is no proof that this disease will get herd immunity.
Figster Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Limeaid said: There is no proof that this disease will get herd immunity. I get the impression we might be seeing some herd immunity developing already in former hot spots IMO. I think other Countries are showing evidence of it. How long it would last or resist a 2nd wave that may have mutated remains to be seen. (speculation) Edited July 26, 2020 by Figster
Doc Brown Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 3 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html CDC revised its forecast of total deaths. They’re now predicting 160-175k by August 15th (3 weeks from today). We’re at 144k now. That’s 15,000 to 30,000 deaths over the next 3 weeks. I hope that ends up being an overestimate (especially the higher estimate). Just to give you an idea about how fluid the data is going into the main model is the cdc uses here's an article from April 21st. You have to wonder why they even bother to base policies off of models at this point. The model had last month predicted there would be more than 90,000 deaths by August, but that number dropped to 82,000 on April 7, before decreasing by another 20,000 days later. The drastic reduction signaled to experts at IHME that social distancing measures were working in the fightback against COVID-19. But the model assumes that all states are implementing 'broad, aggressive social distancing policies', and may not have factored in any plans from states, such a Georgia and South Carolina, to ease social distancing measures early. 1
BillsFan4 Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Figster said: We can stop this with a Nationally unified 30 day lockdown IMO. Prioritize the US work force. Shelter in place individually until each individual test negative from Covid 19. The positive case load gets quarantined until testing negative and then logged into a data base for future reference. We need this information to properly identify where more specifally by location herd immunity is being reached to be reviewed in the event of future outbreaks. This can be as simple or as hard as we want to make it. I think we can still do this Billsfan4... I don’t know if we even need a full national lockdown. I think some states have to start following the CDC reopening guidelines better, maybe roll back on some of the places they allowed to reopen too soon (the places that are the biggest drivers of covid spread, and I think some places have already started to do this), mandate masks in public places and do a lot better at delivering a unified message. Another lockdown would do little good otherwise. It would help the outbreaks but we’d eventually be right back to where we are now, with cases surging and hospitals reaching capacity. We need everyone to get on board and do their (small/large) part in this fight (especially with schools opening and flu season approaching), and I think that’s hard to accomplish when so many people are not on the same page. And I agree. I KNOW we can still do this. We have to. 1
Figster Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said: I don’t know if we even need a full national lockdown. I think some states have to start following the CDC reopening guidelines better, maybe roll back on some of the places they allowed to reopen too soon (the places that are the biggest drivers of covid spread, and I think some places have already started to do this), mandate masks in public places and do a lot better at delivering a unified message. Another lockdown would do little good otherwise. It would help the outbreaks but we’d eventually be right back to where we are now, with cases surging and hospitals reaching capacity. We need everyone to get on board and do their (small/large) part in this fight (especially with schools opening and flu season approaching), and I think that’s hard to accomplish when so many people are not on the same page. And I agree. I KNOW we can still do this. We have to. Good points The problem I've seen all along is without a coordinated effort on the ground nationally is in just a 24 hour period Covid 19 can travel as far as one man can take it anywhere in the US. A 30 day unified national shelter in place order would prevent this from happening IMO. Everyone assumes they have Covid 19 until tested and told otherwise. You have 30 days to have or not have Covid 19 and get over it. I realize nobody wants to hear lockdown, especially in parts of our Country it seems under control. I get it. What needs to be done though is to make certain Covid 19 doesn't come visiting your home town because it effects and infects us all. Edited July 26, 2020 by Figster
plenzmd1 Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 man, this is so sad. The divide will continue to get wider and wider. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/as-public-schools-go-all-virtual-in-fall-parents-eye-private-schools-that-say-they-will-open-their-campuses/2020/07/26/1e446ab0-cc5b-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_privateschools-840p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans Quote While most of the region’s public school districts say their campuses will remain closed for the start of the fall semester, many private schools — which can charge more than $45,000 a year in tuition and fees — are still planning to bring students into classrooms for at least part of the week. It’s a situation that could exacerbate existing inequalities, with wealthier students attending classes in person at private schools, and everyone else using public schools’ distance learning, which left many students behind in their academics.
teef Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: man, this is so sad. The divide will continue to get wider and wider. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/as-public-schools-go-all-virtual-in-fall-parents-eye-private-schools-that-say-they-will-open-their-campuses/2020/07/26/1e446ab0-cc5b-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_privateschools-840p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans we're right in the middle of this ourselves. we have one of our kids on two wait lists to local private schools until we figure exactly what's going on with our district. we may have to go to a private school just due to scheduling issues. that being said, you don't have to be wealthy to go to a private school, you just have to be willing to spend some extra money. it should quite a bit less than daycare. it's a mess.
plenzmd1 Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 55 minutes ago, teef said: we're right in the middle of this ourselves. we have one of our kids on two wait lists to local private schools until we figure exactly what's going on with our district. we may have to go to a private school just due to scheduling issues. that being said, you don't have to be wealthy to go to a private school, you just have to be willing to spend some extra money. it should quite a bit less than daycare. it's a mess. Agree its a mess..and depressing. While you mighty not have to be wealthy, you have to be at least right in the middle. And that leaves a lot of kids out. I could prolly fins it again, but about two weeks ago LT Gov of PA said almost half of the students in the city of Philly never logged in once in the spring..I mean people worry about what kids lose from the past year over the summer...what if so many of these kids with limited access to tech, parents who have to go to work and not WFH..and they go 12 months without real instruction.
HeHateMe Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: man, this is so sad. The divide will continue to get wider and wider. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/as-public-schools-go-all-virtual-in-fall-parents-eye-private-schools-that-say-they-will-open-their-campuses/2020/07/26/1e446ab0-cc5b-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_privateschools-840p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans Private schools immune to the virus?
plenzmd1 Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, HeHateMe said: Private schools immune to the virus? Listening to science i believe 1 1
teef Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Agree its a mess..and depressing. While you mighty not have to be wealthy, you have to be at least right in the middle. And that leaves a lot of kids out. I could prolly fins it again, but about two weeks ago LT Gov of PA said almost half of the students in the city of Philly never logged in once in the spring..I mean people worry about what kids lose from the past year over the summer...what if so many of these kids with limited access to tech, parents who have to go to work and not WFH..and they go 12 months without real instruction. oh i'm with ya. my wife works for a school district where online learning is a massive challenge. she has kids who want to go to school just to escape their home life. those are the kids i'm really worried about. a week or two ago, our peds office released a statement concerning schools reopening, and they were 100% behind the kids going back full time. boy were they blasted in the public. the doctors we getting phone calls from people who didn't even have kids in the practice, demanding to be called back! they don't have time in their day for it. similar thing happened to our daycare. a kid was covid positive, so they shut down the rooms and not the entire center. you would think they had murdered a child. I'm fairly conservative when it comes to reopening...i think it should absolutely be done, but with precaution. i do feel schools should be open full time. this "part time" learning just isn't going to work.
The Poojer Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 (edited) He's a pretty bad ass guy and he appears to be a genuinely good person 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: Agree its a mess..and depressing. While you mighty not have to be wealthy, you have to be at least right in the middle. And that leaves a lot of kids out. I could prolly fins it again, but about two weeks ago LT Gov of PA said almost half of the students in the city of Philly never logged in once in the spring..I mean people worry about what kids lose from the past year over the summer...what if so many of these kids with limited access to tech, parents who have to go to work and not WFH..and they go 12 months without real instruction. Edited July 27, 2020 by The Poojer
Figster Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 On 7/26/2020 at 12:29 PM, Limeaid said: There is no proof that this disease will get herd immunity. 23 hours ago, Figster said: I get the impression we might be seeing some herd immunity developing already in former hot spots IMO. I think other Countries are showing evidence of it. How long it would last or resist a 2nd wave that may have mutated remains to be seen. (speculation) We might be seeing both herd immunity and a higher degree of social distancing, hygiene and mask wearing all working together in former hot spots here in the US and in other countries IMO. Stay vigilant everyone, and protect the elderly...
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