Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[plenzmd1]

52 minutes ago, Figster said:

To achieve herd immunity without a vaccine unfortunately almost half the population would need to test positive with Covid 19 for a chance of this to happen. By way of example the state of NY would need approx 3.5 million people.

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200626/herd-immunity-threshold-could-be-as-low-as-43-percent

maybe not..this paper speculates could be much lower ..at the 10-20% level. Non peer reviewed certainly, but interesting

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1

[Figster]

17 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

maybe not..this paper speculates could be much lower ..at the 10-20% level. Non peer reviewed certainly, but interesting

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1

Interesting,

 

Perhaps Hapless can chime in,

 

Even so, we're a little over 1% right now nationally.

[plenzmd1]

4 minutes ago, Figster said:

Interesting,

 

Perhaps Hapless can chime in,

 

Even so, we're a little over 1% right now nationally.

Well, thought is many more people have had it than than positive tests indicate. Weare well over 1%..hell NY did studies and 22% had the antibodies..anecdotal evidence that maybe herd immunity is reached at 20% or so

 

 

[Figster]

21 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Well, thought is many more people have had it than than positive tests indicate. Weare well over 1%..hell NY did studies and 22% had the antibodies..anecdotal evidence that maybe herd immunity is reached at 20% or so

 

 

Excellent point,

 

Wich could explain why a 2nd big wave isn't happening yet in the hard hit state of NY.

 

If you multiply our current US case load by 10 which is a reoccurring number I keep hearing we have reached the 10% mark nationally already.

 

If true, this could be good news in a world of bad...

Edited July 20, 2020 by Figster

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

maybe not..this paper speculates could be much lower ..at the 10-20% level. Non peer reviewed certainly, but interesting

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1

 

Yeah, um, that's one where I'll wait to see the peer review.

 

I mean, the overall theory isn't wrong - one does see a lower "herd immunity" number if a fraction of the population is resistant.  And we do have an intriguing hint that in fact, a fraction of the population may have partial immunity due to exposure to a different animal coronavirus (see Facts thread on T-cell response)

The key assumption is right here:  "Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses" ......we have a substantial population that is evidently partially resistant and never develops symptoms or develops only mild symptoms, analogous to people who are vaccinated last year for flu and have partial immunity to this year's strains, they may get sick but not as sick.

 

The big question is are they, or are they not, able to transmit the virus?  And I think we have seen evidence that a bunch of these people can and do transmit the virus.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, Figster said:

Excellent point,

 

Wich could explain why a 2nd big wave isn't happening yet in the hard hit state of NY.

 

If you multiply our current US case load by 10 which is a reoccurring number I keep hearing we have reached the 10% mark nationally already.

 

If true, this could be good news in a world of bad...

 

So as testing has increased, the multiplier is probably more like 5-6 (course, it could be back to 10 Real Soon Now with surges...)

 

I think the explanation of no 2nd big wave in NY is that NY is taking its test-trace-isolate and it's Mask Up! a LOT more seriously than other states did.

Also, opening gradually and requiring masks gave people the message "it's not over, we must still be vigilant"

 

In other states people were like "OK, we're good, back to normal!" and hey, Surge City!  If people do likewise in NYS or if lotsa people don't take the 14 day entry quarantine seriously, "watch and learn" IMO

 

I think the only places in NY that have herd immunity going down are select locations in NYC and a few nearby towns.
 

National seroprevalence studies indicate nationwide, an infection rate no where near the 10% mark.  But hey, we can work on that! (Oh-was that my outer voice?)

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So as testing has increased, the multiplier is probably more like 5-6 (course, it could be back to 10 Real Soon Now with surges...)

 

I think the explanation of no 2nd big wave in NY is that NY is taking its test-trace-isolate and it's Mask Up! a LOT more seriously than other states did.

Also, opening gradually and requiring masks gave people the message "it's not over, we must still be vigilant"

 

In other states people were like "OK, we're good, back to normal!" and hey, Surge City!  If people do likewise in NYS or if lotsa people don't take the 14 day entry quarantine seriously, "watch and learn" IMO

 

I think the only places in NY that have herd immunity going down are select locations in NYC and a few nearby towns.
 

National seroprevalence studies indicate nationwide, an infection rate no where near the 10% mark.  But hey, we can work on that! (Oh-was that my outer voice?)

A very plausible explanation.

 

Oh, we can work on it alright.

 

Just ask any young American and most will agree...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Figster said:

A very plausible explanation.

 

Oh, we can work on it alright.

 

Just ask any young American and most will agree...

 

I dunno.  I think my kiddo is taking it pretty seriously. 

Of course, working every day at 100% masked facility where a bunch of people quit rather than return to work might help drive it home.

[Figster]

 

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I dunno.  I think my kiddo is taking it pretty seriously. 

Of course, working every day at 100% masked facility where a bunch of people quit rather than return to work might help drive it home.

I think your kiddo also has the benifit of having an intelligent and well informed Dad who gets it.

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, Figster said:

 

I think your kiddo also has the benifit of having an intelligent and well informed Dad who gets it.

 

If you’re EVER going to listen to dad, better here than something like....how to throw a curveball! 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Here is a chart of hospitalizations across the US from The Covid Tracking Project.  As far as I can tell, the Covid Tracking Project started when a couple of reporters with spreadsheets trying to sort covid-19 testing bumped into the founder of Related Sciences (with his own spreadsheet) and it developed from there.  It's a volunteer effort to compile data from publicly available sources, and they make all the data behind their charts publicly available and downloadable.

 

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized



Here is the chart from the CDC's CovidView site.  The chart notes that this week's decline in cases is likely to change as more data are received.

 

Thoughts?

 

In MO, our state DHSS is said to be about 7,000 tests behind in compiling data and usually 2-3 days behind.  There's a dude compiling data and posting on Facebook whose data is sometimes 2x or 3x as high as the states  - eventually the state catches up.

this is the hospitalization graph pulled from the official Missouri covid-19 dashboard today.  It looks a lot like the Covid project graph in overall shape

 

 

[Niagara Bill]

Herd immunity can only exist if antibodies remain effective. There is evidence that people who contracted c19 lose their protection 3 or 4 months later. 

That is death to the herd theory if true. 

We have never developed herd immunity to any corona virus...1918, sars, h1n1,  or influenza of any kind.

 

[Figster]

A fairly recent article that concerns me

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/scientists-covid-19-spread-particles-air/story?id=71665634

 

Older article ( not reviewed ) that I also find concerning

 

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/494677-coronavirus-detected-on-air-pollution-particles-report

 

Not enough is known yet about Covid 19 and why I urge everyone to err on the side of caution indoors or outdoors. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Figster

[shoshin]

5 hours ago, Niagara Bill said:

Herd immunity can only exist if antibodies remain effective. There is evidence that people who contracted c19 lose their protection 3 or 4 months later. 

That is death to the herd theory if true. 

We have never developed herd immunity to any corona virus...1918, sars, h1n1,  or influenza of any kind.

 

 

Not much to support this one way or another on Covid-19. The virus has only been around for ~7 months. 

 

Almost every flu season, a certain herd immunity exists going into the season based on what happened the year before. So we do have certain herd immunity each year to the flu, whether it's through having contracted it before, or contracted a similar strain that gave us effective immune response to the current strain, or from a vaccine. There's no reason to think that won't be true for Covid-19, but there's not really any data to know how long immunity for Covid-19 will last. 

 

 

[Greg S]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/20/us/jack-nicklaus-coronavirus-spt-trnd/index.html

 

Then you get stories like this. Nicklaus is 80 and his wife around the same age. They both got it and it was no big deal despite them being in high risk category age wise.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Greg S said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/20/us/jack-nicklaus-coronavirus-spt-trnd/index.html

 

Then you get stories like this. Nicklaus is 80 and his wife around the same age. They both got it and it was no big deal despite them being in high risk category age wise.

 

What do you think a story like this shows?  The phrasing "then you get stories like this" often is used when there's significance - maybe something disprovative? about a story (other than it involving a celebrity)

 

My good friend's father ("Major Brother's" dad for those who may remember) contracted covid-19 in his nursing home.  Prior to the epidemic the nursing home had 90 residents most of whom were going to mass, eating lunch with their friends and husbands or wives daily, enjoying weekly or biweekly outings with family, and just generally not on "death's doorstep".  Most of them are in their 80s.  My friend's dad is 88.

 

In April, 6 weeks after locking down to ALL visitors, 66 residents of the home were diagnosed with covid-19.  (It clearly came into the home through someone working there).  26 of those infected have died so far - a handful are still hospitalized.

 

My friend's dad is one of the lucky ones who survived, and as far as we can tell, it was pretty mild for him - about 10 days of being very lethargic and struggling to get enough fluids. He never needed to go to hospital.  His blood oxygen was monitored 2x/daily, and he was never hypoxic.

 

26 out of 66 cases in that nursing home is a case fatality rate of 39%.  That's a hideous death toll, and not unusual for what some other nursing homes saw.

 

But overall, the case fatality rate for age >80 is 13-20% .   Statista says " In the U.S., between 10.4 and 27.3 percent of COVID-19 cases from February 12 to March 16, 2020 among those aged 85 years and older resulted in death. This statistic shows the percentage of COVID-19 cases in the United States from February 12 to March 16, 2020 resulting in death, by age group." 

 

That's not as hideous, but it's still extremely high. 

 

That doesn't mean everyone or even most people in that age group die. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Niagara Bill said:

Herd immunity can only exist if antibodies remain effective. There is evidence that people who contracted c19 lose their protection 3 or 4 months later. 

That is death to the herd theory if true. 

We have never developed herd immunity to any corona virus...1918, sars, h1n1,  or influenza of any kind.

 

 

@Niagara Bill , these are two popular themes in the media, but antibodies = immunity is untrue, and most of the rest has little truth.  There is a reason why historically, disease such as bubonic plague sweep a region for 3 or 4 years, then re-emerge every couple of decades in waves.

 

First, Big point - you're mixing influenza (1918 flu, H1N1, influenza of any kind) and coronaviruses.  Different virus families with different behaviors.

We actually DO develop lasting immunity against influenza viruses.  Even when the flu vaccine uses the wrong strains, vaccinated people get a milder disease - partial immunity.  It's believed that fewer elders died in the 1918 flu pandemic due to prior immunity.  The problem with influenza virus is not lack of lasting immune response, but viral mutation and recombination.

 

That matters because so far, the SARS-CoV2 virus has a much slower mutation rate and families of coronaviruses overall have strongly conserved regions.  Given the observed mutation rate (and we know a lot about this) we would expect a vaccine to be effective for several years BUT it may be true that the "business part" of the virus - the part that allows it to infect cells - is more highly conserved and less subject to mutations.

 

Now, let's do "Herd Immunity Can Only Exist if Antibodies Remain Effective".

This is wrong, despite being implied in many media articles on a near daily basis.  There's a good explanation of this over on the Facts thread with links to several Twitter threads by immunologists explaining. 

 

TL;DR - Adaptive immune response has several components.  Antibodies are one.  Even if the antibodies don't stick around, the memory B cells that make antibodies may stick around and be able to "turn it up" on a moments notice.  If we made antibodies continually for every virus or bacteria we've encountered, our blood would be Karo syrup. 

Another component is cellular immunity, T-cells.  T-cells identify and kill virus infected cells before they spew their "virus factory" contents.  Memory T cells have recently been found in SARS patients from 2003 (good news!)  T-cells and mucosal immunity may be more important adaptive immune response for covid-19 because of what cells it prefers to infect and how it operates.

 

Last, the "never been a vaccine against coronavirus".  That sounds scary - except it's not quite true.  Vaccines were under development for MERS and SARS but they never re-emerged so the clinical trials were never completed.  Can't prove the vaccine works if there aren't any sick people!  Some of those learnings are being leveraged to create Covid-19 vaccines. 

 

But most coronaviruses haven't had a reason to support vaccine development!!!  They don't cause fatal disease.  The case fatality rate for the common cold is miniscule.   There's no benefit to develop a vaccine, that will have some non-zero rate of side effects, for a disease that is not serious.

 

 

 

[Greg S]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What do you think a story like this shows?  The phrasing "then you get stories like this" often is used when there's significance - maybe something disprovative? about a story (other than it involving a celebrity)

 

My good friend's father ("Major Brother's" dad for those who may remember) contracted covid-19 in his nursing home.  Prior to the epidemic the nursing home had 90 residents most of whom were going to mass, eating lunch with their friends and husbands or wives daily, enjoying weekly or biweekly outings with family, and just generally not on "death's doorstep".  Most of them are in their 80s.  My friend's dad is 88.

 

In April, 6 weeks after locking down to ALL visitors, 66 residents of the home were diagnosed with covid-19.  (It clearly came into the home through someone working there).  26 of those infected have died so far - a handful are still hospitalized.

 

My friend's dad is one of the lucky ones who survived, and as far as we can tell, it was pretty mild for him - about 10 days of being very lethargic and struggling to get enough fluids. He never needed to go to hospital.  His blood oxygen was monitored 2x/daily, and he was never hypoxic.

 

26 out of 66 cases in that nursing home is a case fatality rate of 39%.  That's a hideous death toll, and not unusual for what some other nursing homes saw.

 

But overall, the case fatality rate for age >80 is 13-20% .   Statista says " In the U.S., between 10.4 and 27.3 percent of COVID-19 cases from February 12 to March 16, 2020 among those aged 85 years and older resulted in death. This statistic shows the percentage of COVID-19 cases in the United States from February 12 to March 16, 2020 resulting in death, by age group." 

 

That's not as hideous, but it's still extremely high. 

 

That doesn't mean everyone or even most people in that age group die. 

 

 

 

I meant it as it really is a gamble on what a person's immune system is like. I have seen on the news where young people who are completely healthy suffer with this virus and then on the flip side you get a story like Jack Nicklaus. Most people from what I have seen will recover just fine. You just don't know who will be fine and who will be in serious trouble.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I meant it as it really is a gamble on what a person's immune system is like. I have seen on the news where young people who are completely healthy suffer with this virus and then on the flip side you get a story like Jack Nicklaus. Most people from what I have seen will recover just fine. You just don't know who will be fine and who will be in serious trouble.

 

That's 100% so true at this time!  

 

It's possible that we may be able to predict in the not-too-distant future.  Not to "bump" my own post on another thread but this paper really is big news .  It has important news for the vaccine front, for the enduring immunity front, and a possible clue on the  "why is it some people don't get very sick?" front - just like the 1918 flu, it appears that some people have been previously exposed to one or more animal coronaviruses that have conserved regions to Sars CoV2!!!! and have memory T cells to mount a defense against it. 

 

Historically, as soon as something is known to be important, bright folks get to work figuring out how to measure it.  It's not a slam-dunk, mind, but it's hopeful.

[K-9]

12 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I meant it as it really is a gamble on what a person's immune system is like. I have seen on the news where young people who are completely healthy suffer with this virus and then on the flip side you get a story like Jack Nicklaus. Most people from what I have seen will recover just fine. You just don't know who will be fine and who will be in serious trouble.

All true. 
 

Regardless, we do know unequivocally that this virus can and will overrun health care systems when given the chance. And yet we’ve insisted on giving it chance after chance.