plenzmd1 Posted July 8, 2020 Posted July 8, 2020 4 hours ago, Warcodered said: So it took this chucklehead 6 minutes to finally getting around to “ good news is death rate keeps dropping “. And you can tell in his voice, he wishes more Americans would be dying. so he could be “ righter” 2 hours ago, Bad Things said: Mate, my wife and I talk about this all the time. We moved away from the US 15 years ago and try to imagine how our level of sanity would be in we never moved. One controversy after another. Day after day. Kia Kaha! (Stay strong!) Hope the door did not hit your backside when ya left
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said: So it took this chucklehead 6 minutes to finally getting around to “ good news is death rate keeps dropping “. And you can tell in his voice, he wishes more Americans would be dying. so he could be “ righter” I don't want to get in to discussing one's opinion of a TV analyst's voice and what it means about what he really thinks. It doesn't strike me as informative or useful here. The thing that I think is helpful to understand: the average interval from infection to death with covid-19 (for those who die) is 18-23 days. That means for every person who is hospitalized briefly and recovers in a week, there is someone else who is critically ill and who fights for a month before succumbing, and as treatment improves, that interval will only lengthen. The second thing to understand is that covid-19 spreads silently until it reaches a susceptible person or population. Then serious cases and hospitalizations take off. But due to the average interval from infection to death, deaths will lag, on average, 3 weeks behind an upward trajectory in hospitalizations. And with more widespread testing catching a larger number of asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations will lag case counts. I found a good graphic showing this the other day, I'm looking for it and when I do, I'll come back and put it here. Hopefully more patients will now recover because of all the improvements in care - blood thinners, dexamethasone, remdesivir, delayed use of ventilators in favor of high flow oxygen and prone positioning, convalescent plasma etc, so we will hopefully see fewer deaths. But this is still a devastating disease for which we have only supportive and symptomatic treatment. And it will not help that hospitals are near capacity already in a number of areas. My take, and I speak as someone with a beloved parent in a senior living facility and a dear friend whose 90 yr old father survived covid-19 in a decimated nursing home, is that we have not done nearly enough to protect the most vulnerable. In most places, testing of caregivers and HCW is still scarce. PPE and infection control procedures have improved in some care homes, but not all. We are talking about testing college students and football players every 3 or 5 days, but not about testing every caregiver and HCW working with the elderly every day. We have areas in MO, which is not a particularly hard-hit state, where testing is already lagging 3-7 days behind, yet there is no coordinated nationwide effort to promote pooled testing especially for screening tests. It is known to be very very difficult to isolate a vulnerable population in the face of circulating epidemic disease in the general population. We could be tackling that degree of difficulty head on - but we aren't. Example: the entire facility my mother lives in was just tested for the first time mid-June. One covid infection in a resident, and one in her caregiver (who was a private duty aide not caring for anyone else) were found. Probably the resident contracted it from the aide. But it was just Grace that the infected aide was private duty, and not caring for a wing full of people. So I hope you will grant me the benefit of the doubt that I have no glee in saying this, but in these circumstances, with case rates skyrocketing and hospitalizations climbing, I do not believe that the death rate will not be dropping for long. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 3 hours ago, TBBills said: If you don't pay attention to it you never have to worry. It's a point that if I watched television or cable news on a regular basis I'm sure I'd need medication for hypertension 1
Augie Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: It's a point that if I watched television or cable news on a regular basis I'm sure I'd need medication for hypertension We have finally convinced my 92 year old mother to stay away from the stiinkin’ news!!! I was literally making her sick to her stomach worrying about it.
plenzmd1 Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't want to get in to discussing one's opinion of a TV analyst's voice and what it means about what he really thinks. It doesn't strike me as informative or useful here. The thing that I think is helpful to understand: the average interval from infection to death with covid-19 (for those who die) is 18-23 days. That means for every person who is hospitalized briefly and recovers in a week, there is someone else who is critically ill and who fights for a month before succumbing, and as treatment improves, that interval will only lengthen. The second thing to understand is that covid-19 spreads silently until it reaches a susceptible person or population. Then serious cases and hospitalizations take off. But due to the average interval from infection to death, deaths will lag, on average, 3 weeks behind an upward trajectory in hospitalizations. And with more widespread testing catching a larger number of asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations will lag case counts. I found a good graphic showing this the other day, I'm looking for it and when I do, I'll come back and put it here. Hopefully more patients will now recover because of all the improvements in care - blood thinners, dexamethasone, remdesivir, delayed use of ventilators in favor of high flow oxygen and prone positioning, convalescent plasma etc, so we will hopefully see fewer deaths. But this is still a devastating disease for which we have only supportive and symptomatic treatment. And it will not help that hospitals are near capacity already in a number of areas. My take, and I speak as someone with a beloved parent in a senior living facility and a dear friend whose 90 yr old father survived covid-19 in a decimated nursing home, is that we have not done nearly enough to protect the most vulnerable. In most places, testing of caregivers and HCW is still scarce. PPE and infection control procedures have improved in some care homes, but not all. We are talking about testing college students and football players every 3 or 5 days, but not about testing every caregiver and HCW working with the elderly every day. We have areas in MO, which is not a particularly hard-hit state, where testing is already lagging 3-7 days behind, yet there is no coordinated nationwide effort to promote pooled testing especially for screening tests. It is known to be very very difficult to isolate a vulnerable population in the face of circulating epidemic disease in the general population. We could be tackling that degree of difficulty head on - but we aren't. Example: the entire facility my mother lives in was just tested for the first time mid-June. One covid infection in a resident, and one in her caregiver (who was a private duty aide not caring for anyone else) were found. Probably the resident contracted it from the aide. But it was just Grace that the infected aide was private duty, and not caring for a wing full of people. So I hope you will grant me the benefit of the doubt that I have no glee in saying this, but in these circumstances, with case rates skyrocketing and hospitalizations climbing, I do not believe that the death rate will not be dropping for long. all good points..and let me counter and hope you grant me the benefit the doubt you ask. I do not not have people in 'high risk" groups as you do, and ceratinly that impacts our views. I do however have two kids who lives are being dramtically impacted, even though all evidence points to the fact they are are at less risk from Covid than the ordinary flu, or less than .0002 percent chance of dying. And yes, that number is correct. And yes, case rates have been escalating since Memorial Day. Deaths have not escalated at same rate. So we are a good 7 weeks since then, when do we say its evidence? After 12 weeks? If it changes, it changes. but i hope policy makers are not going to use numbers from NY and NJ in March and April to form policy moving forward Edited July 9, 2020 by plenzmd1 1
Warcodered Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/missouri-summer-camp-closes-after-82-kids-and-staff-infected-with-coronavirus/ar-BB16uKqY?ocid=msedgntp Edited July 9, 2020 by Warcodered 1
TBBills Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Warcodered said: Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/missouri-summer-camp-closes-after-82-kids-and-staff-infected-with-coronavirus/ar-BB16uKqY?ocid=msedgntp I noticed it's a lot of religious gatherings that are really messing things up here.
ALF Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 FDA warns against using two dozen hand sanitizers that could contain toxic wood alcohol (CNN)The Food and Drug Administration has added more hand sanitizers to its growing list of products that contain wood alcohol, which is toxic if absorbed through the skin. More than two dozen various hand sanitizers sold by the Mexico-based company 4E Global -- many carrying the Blumen label -- contain high levels of methanol, or wood alcohol, and have been recommended for recall. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/health/hand-sanitizer-methanol-fda-trnd/index.html 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 10 hours ago, plenzmd1 said: all good points..and let me counter and hope you grant me the benefit the doubt you ask. I do not not have people in 'high risk" groups as you do, and ceratinly that impacts our views. I do however have two kids who lives are being dramtically impacted, even though all evidence points to the fact they are are at less risk from Covid than the ordinary flu, or less than .0002 percent chance of dying. And yes, that number is correct. And yes, case rates have been escalating since Memorial Day. Deaths have not escalated at same rate. So we are a good 7 weeks since then, when do we say its evidence? After 12 weeks? If it changes, it changes. but i hope policy makers are not going to use numbers from NY and NJ in March and April to form policy moving forward I’d be obliged if you can provide a source for that 0.0002% chance of dying (0.000002 death rate), so that I can understand where you’re coming from. But the argument about schools shouldn’t be that kids are or are not at risk. The question is: we know now they do get infected. Traditionally schools serve as “disease amplifiers” during an epidemic because children are children and are casual about contact and hygiene, then pass the disease to adult caregivers teachers and other school personnel, who pass it to the people they live and socialize with. If you look at the actual significant rise in cases, it starts to really take off about mid-June in most states, and the hospitalizations are lagging by a couple weeks. Back around Memorial Day (I don’t have the energy about it to dig up my posts, but I think a couple of guys here will vouch for me) I pointed out that hospitalizations would take 4-6 weeks to begin to climb because it’s clear now that’s how this epidemic works - it circulates and amplifies in young and prime working age people “silently” until it hits enough truly vulnerable people (not necessarily just old people) to show up in clinics and hospitals. Then the interval from infection to death is another 2.5-3 weeks. So that’s just where we are - about 6 weeks in from Memorial Day, hospitals are now seeing a surge and filling up, and deaths are also starting to rise. Edit: here is a chart I put together from two graphs for Texas, sourced from Worldometer, that illustrates this point. I'm not myself an epidemiologist, but those who are say this pattern is what's expected. The point is to say "deaths have been rising since Memorial Day, haven't escalated at the same rate" is an expectation out of sync with the learnings in epidemiology and prognosis of covid-19 cases.
plenzmd1 Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I’d be obliged if you can provide a source for that 0.0002% chance of dying (0.000002 death rate), so that I can understand where you’re coming from. But the argument about schools shouldn’t be that kids are or are not at risk. The question is: we know now they do get infected. Traditionally schools serve as “disease amplifiers” during an epidemic because children are children and are casual about contact and hygiene, then pass the disease to adult caregivers teachers and other school personnel, who pass it to the people they live and socialize with. If you look at the actual significant rise in cases, it starts to really take off about mid-June in most states, and the hospitalizations are lagging by a couple weeks. Back around Memorial Day (I don’t have the energy about it to dig up my posts, but I think a couple of guys here will vouch for me) I pointed out that hospitalizations would take 4-6 weeks to begin to climb because it’s clear now that’s how this epidemic works - it circulates and amplifies in young and prime working age people “silently” until it hits enough truly vulnerable people (not necessarily just old people) to show up in clinics and hospitals. Then the interval from infection to death is another 2.5-3 weeks. So that’s just where we are - about 6 weeks in from Memorial Day, hospitals are now seeing a surge and filling up, and deaths are also starting to rise. according to this chart, 14 years and under we have had 14 deaths, and we are at least 6 months in. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku And according to this website, we have appx 60,000,000M in that population https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ so14/60,000,000M is equal to .00000023. I am not talking IFR, but death rates vs the population. It is a statistical blip. In terms of schools and being disease amplifiers, we have little to go on outside of other countries and some anecdotal studies. Here is one article that points to their being little risk of transmission. Lets not forget, these were daycares catering to front line responders, theoretically the very same people who should carry highest risk of infection, especially early on when PPE was not the best. https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns On the flip side of that, we have the 82 sick at the Missouri camp. Now, sleep over camp completely different, but a development that bears watching without doubt. Another good article about schools opening from ab Edited July 9, 2020 by plenzmd1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: according to this chart, 14 years and under we have had 14 deaths, and we are at least 6 months in. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku And according to this website, we have appx 60,000,000M in that population https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku so14/60,000,000M is equal to .00000023. I am not talking IFR, but death rates vs the population. It is a statistical blip. In terms of schools and being disease amplifiers, we have little to go on outside of other countries and some anecdotal studies. Here is one article that points to their being little risk of transmission. Lets not forget, these were daycares catering to front line responders, theoretically the very same people who should carry highest risk of infection, especially early on when PPE was not the best. https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns On the flip side of that, we have the 82 sick at the Missouri camp. Now, sleep over camp completely different, but a development that bears watching without doubt. Another good article about schools opening from ab Think you might have hit send too soon? When I spoke of schools as "disease amplifiers", I'm speaking of epidemiological knowledge - and we have WAY more to go on than anecdotal studies. Otherwise, Thanks. Yes, if your kids are <14, data support that their risk from covid-19 disease is very low. I wish there were more stuff published - Sweden surely has some good learnings as their schools and daycares stayed open. But good articles, and thank you very much for giving your sources! I found this paragraph interesting: "Working in early days, and on very short notice, these two organizations followed safety guidance that closely resembles what's now been officially put out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Y says a few staff members and parents at sites around the country did test positive, but there are no records of having more than one case at a site. This, among a population of essential workers." It sounds as though the YMCAs did a very good job - I liked the story of teaching kids "airplane arms" and of establishing "pods" of 9 kids that did not interact, and the note that they were following CDC guidance. Our government has questioned the CDC guidance, saying it is "too tough and expensive" for schools to follow. I note that if schools open under a different set of rules that are closer to "business as usual", the results may differ. I'm looking to see if a contact tracing report was ever produced for a cluster of 3 infections in a preschool here, early in the epidemic. It wasn't clear at the time what the transmission mode was (teacher to teacher, or teacher to child to child's teachers). One died. But it's good to know that hasn't been the case overall. I'm just deeply troubled by arguments such as "in Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden schools are open with no problems" when many of those countries appear to be in a very different status with regard to epidemic control. 1
plenzmd1 Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 @Hapless Bills Fan, agree on we have plenty of studies and epidemiological( many i can barely say that word let alone spell it) knowledge ..but with other viruses, and not this one. This seems to be be behaving differently, but again agree way to little information to claim one way or the other. I am also of the opinion we need to make allowances for ALL teachers and support staff that have high risk factors..and by allowances i mean be paid in full etc. How that gets done, that's the tricky part. If say 20% of teachers and support have high rick factors and stay home...how does that affect class sizes etc? So many questions I have let Richmond Public Schools know I am more than happy to help in the classroom any way i can, but lord knows I am no teacher...but will do my part if they need me in any way..including janitorial work and working the cafeteria etc .
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 7 hours ago, Warcodered said: Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/missouri-summer-camp-closes-after-82-kids-and-staff-infected-with-coronavirus/ar-BB16uKqY?ocid=msedgntp It's worth noting that in S. MO, there's currently a 3-10 day backlog on covid-19 testing. So there may be more cases to come. Camps in Arkansas and Texas have also suffered outbreaks, and it sounds as though the Kanakuk camp didn't handle it well: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kanakuk-kamps-battle-covid-cluster-n1233186 More info: the Kanakuk camp required a "hold harmless" waiver for covid-19 to be signed: “I hereby voluntarily release, waive and forever discharge any and all claims against Kanakuk Ministries, its board of directors, officers, employees, volunteers, agents and all other persons or entities affiliated with Kanakuk or acting on its behalf that relate in any way to COVID-19, including but not limited to any claim arising from or relating to my exposure to, infection with, or other harm related to COVID-19,” the waiver reads. “While performing the services and/or following my performance of the services, and also including harm related to my spread of COVID-19 to others including my family members. I further agree to reimburse Kanakuk for attorney fees incurred related to enforcing this waiver provision.” One parent of a young staffer feels the camp did not do a good job of responding or informing parents: "One of Chase’s sons told her that on July 1 that staff members corralled the campers in a large group (inside a structure called the "K Dome") to announce the end of camp because of multiple confirmed COVID-19 cases. “Why were campers put at risk for further exposure and spread by gathering everyone as a large group inside the K-Dome instead of being sent to their respective cabins and informed there by their cabin leaders?” Chase asked the camp’s leadership in her email......campers assembled again that night for what he called a "mosh-pit-style" dance party. “There was no social distancing in this mosh pit,” Chase wrote. Chase said that one of her sons told her that he had received a COVID-19 nasal swab test, but that she was neither informed about the testing nor received any results. The camp had called, she underscores, when there was a tick on her other son." Texas https://www.easttexasmatters.com/news/top-stories/pine-cove-cancels-camp-sessions-after-staff-campers-test-positive-for-covid-19/ Arkansas https://kfor.com/news/summer-camps-close-after-covid-19-outbreaks-among-campers-staff/
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: @Hapless Bills Fan, agree on we have plenty of studies and epidemiological( many i can barely say that word let alone spell it) knowledge ..but with other viruses, and not this one. This seems to be be behaving differently, but again agree way to little information to claim one way or the other. I am also of the opinion we need to make allowances for ALL teachers and support staff that have high risk factors..and by allowances i mean be paid in full etc. How that gets done, that's the tricky part. If say 20% of teachers and support have high rick factors and stay home...how does that affect class sizes etc? So many questions I have let Richmond Public Schools know I am more than happy to help in the classroom any way i can, but lord knows I am no teacher...but will do my part if they need me in any way..including janitorial work and working the cafeteria etc . I think that schools for children could and should reopen safely - but that means smaller classrooms, masks at least for teachers, techniques like the "pods" described for the YMCA daycares - while at the same time, if 20% of teachers stay home or somehow contribute to teaching remotely (maybe with an aide or volunteer monitor in the room, running the AV and watching the situation?), they somehow need more, not less, staff.... I believe this is a situation, like care homes, where we could identify the key issues to infection mitigation and prevention, operate more safely, and thereby keep more businesses open (and bring them more business). But there doesn't seem to be a coordinate national effort in the works to actually say "OK, what do we need?" and make it happen. 1
GottaRun Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 26 Shirts had done a fundraiser for a friend of a friend's daughter, Tatiana. Sadly I got the following news "3 months ago, I got a message from Lori that her dear girl was headed to the hospital with what might be covid. And, yesterday, she and I talked about how her fight was coming to an end... an end we had hoped and prayed against. Just a couple weeks after turning 22, the beautiful little curly haired girl that went to kindergarten with my son, lost her battle against covid." About 14 weeks from entering the hospital to passing away, 22 years old. I fear for what will come in the next months in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, as the current cases turn to hospitalizations, and the hospitalizations turn to... we'll have to wait and see. 4
Saxum Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 9 hours ago, TBBills said: I noticed it's a lot of religious gatherings that are really messing things up here. Power of prayer is not working. They should try praying to Hippocrates.
Bad Things Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 21 hours ago, plenzmd1 said: Hope the door did not hit your backside when ya left Nope, it sure didn't!
Greg S Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-hail-stunning-results-show-180918348.html Good news for New Yorkers if true.
shoshin Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, driddles said: Taken from the DataIsBeautiful sub on Reddit There is ONE America not two. Lincoln was president of a war on this point. Your graph is cases but what I see is sick Americans and dead Americans, not sick red vs blue voters. I hate this crap. If you're an American and believe in America, you have empathy with Americans in pain regardless of their vote and want to help them. The first word in our country's name is the most important one. Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin 1 1 1
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