snafu Posted June 5, 2020 Posted June 5, 2020 4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: Great news! Well, if it was zero yesterday, that’s great news. It will also help us see what the results of this past week of protests containing thousands upon thousands of non-social-distancing and unmasked people will be. There’s a loud debate over the effectiveness of social distancing measures. The City is a good experiment.
K-9 Posted June 5, 2020 Posted June 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Especially since cases in black community are higher. We did testing when I was at university. Viruses and bacteria on items degrade fastest in hour, dry and sunny areas. *****! Another hope dashed.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 6, 2020 Author Posted June 6, 2020 9 hours ago, spartacus said: The facts at this point show that COVId-19 mortality is about the same as the flu. The biggest diff is that the most severe impact is concentrated in those >80 with compromised immune systems which makes Covid-19 easier to combat - by protecting a small slice of easily identifiable population. The early high death counts will not be duplicated because treating doctors have stopped following the WHO protocols pushing for pnemonia treatment and ventilators. Use of common oxygen has been instrumental in reducing ICU shortages. It has been shown that zinc cripples the ability of the virus to replicate, thus allowing the immune system to eradicate the virus without any vaccine. https://indigonaturals.net/blogs/news/supplements-that-share-a-key-pathway-with-hydroxychloroquine-for-coronavirus A proactive program which ensures people have an adequate level of absorbable zinc and Qercetine or epigallocatechin gallate (ECGC)___ would allow most people to return to normal life immediately. but alas, no money to be made in that. So a couple of points here. We (and when I say we, I mean the best experts) really have no idea what the mortality rate is relative to flu. The case fatality rate is much higher than flu, and what's initially published with flu is *also a case fatality rate that does not include many cases* Annual flu mortality is always calculated after-the-fact, by reviewing death certificates, by using a flu surveillance network to estimate actual prevelance Remember, a lot of people who contract flu never visit a doctor much less an emergency room, and some have only mild symptoms, too. We won't have a good surveillance for covid-19 because surveillance testing wasn't available until well into the epidemic, so what to do? There's this thing called "seasonal mortality rate", which is averaged over years. It appears that when it is taken into account, the mortality from covid-19 may jump quite a bit. Some papers looking at seasonal mortality in Italy are saying possibly 50% higher deaths from covid-19. Initial comparisons of deaths this year to previous seasonal mortality indicate that the death rate from covid-19 is likely to be higher here in the US as well. According to this article in the Economist, the estimates in NYC may be pretty close, but a recent report from the CDC shows excess mortality well above probable covid-19 deaths: Anyway: it simply is NOT a "fact" at this point that covid-19 mortality is "about the same as the flu". Sorry, simply not factual. The best guess in the first paper I referenced is saying about 0.61%, which is about 3-4x flu and actually not too far off from the "best guesses" of epidemiologists who were looking at early 4-6% case fatality rates and saying "probably we're undercounting infections by ~10x" I'm not a physician so I'm not going to comment upon appropriate clinical treatment except to point out once again, fatality rates decrease when patients have ready access to hospital treatment before they are critically ill. Certainly treatment protocols have improved as we gain knowledge. But please keep in mind that the initial high fatality rates (both in Italy and NYC) were in part due to an overwhelmed medical system, and if the system becomes overwhelmed again, we'll see high fatality rates again. The "zinc/Quercetine or ECGC will allow most people to resume normal life immediately" thing . First off, your source relies heavily upon asserting that hydroxychloroquine works to cure covid-19. We were going to have positive results by the time I'm reading it! It's still being studied but when it comes to those positive clinical trial outcomes: *crickets* It's possible it may help, but it's not likely to be a magic bullet, and it's far from a clear thing that it works by serving as a zinc ionophore increasing zinc uptake across cell membranes. Second, while zinc may stop the covid-19 virus from replicating in the test tube - and I saw no references or data on this point in your source - Hydroxychloroquine works in test tubes! lots of things work in test tubes. But until they're shown to work in actual patients, it's really kind of "magical thinking" to believe that Whoo! this is the answer. Last, the "alas no money to be made on that" is, frankly, an insult to physicians and medical professionals everywhere. Primary clinicians in the United States have a great cure for many of the common health problems that ail us such as hypertension and obesity, and they distribute this wisdom freely. Don't eat too much, exercise regularly, follow a sensible diet like the Mediterranean diet or the DASH diet that limits salt, avoid refined food, don't smoke. Wow, all that common physician-distributed advice really enriches the pharma industry! Guess what part II: it's not the fault of the doctors that so many people stick their fingers in their ears and say "lalalalala not listening!" when they hear it. My point is: if there were a proven low cost or next to free cure or prevention strategy, I would happily bet the rent money that doctors all over this country would be pumping it like a bodybuilder pumps iron, and most certainly physicians in poorer countries like India, South Africa, S. America etc would be ALL over it. 6 hours ago, spartacus said: that was the original storyline. The WHO now says asymtomatic people have little chance of spreading the virus. this is because the viral load is is too low because their body's immune system fought off the virus Hi can you kindly provide a link to a source where WHO says this? There are a number of early contact tracing reports which clearly show that asymptomatic (at the time) people spread the virus. Some were presymptomatic, some never developed symptoms. To my knowledge, in close-quarters situations like TR, the cruise ships, meatpacking plants, it is pretty clear there was asymptomatic spread. With all respect, I think you may be misinterpreting something. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 6, 2020 Author Posted June 6, 2020 6 hours ago, spartacus said: based on actual data, there is a conflicting position that the lockdown did nothing to stop the spread of the virus. The biggest cause for the big improvement against the gloom and doom forecast is that the models were intentional inflated to drive the fear mongering in fact, the "necessary measure" of forcing very sick people into nursing homes is probably the key factor why the numbers are as bad as they are as soon as doctors stopped following the WHO treatment protocol and need for ventilators, the medical emergency was over "Very sick" people were not forced into nursing homes. The problem was releasing people who did not require hospitalization, but who may still be infectious. Those who had homes, went home; those who lived in nursing homes, went back there. And yes, it was stupid, and yes it undoubtedly contributed to the spread of covid-19 in some facilities; in most, covid-19 was already in the facility and spreading, sometimes from a patient who was not known to have covid-19 and was transferred back, while testing was still severely limited. I think to call it a "key factor" would require some careful research - got any? Many of the elders who died were living at home, or with relatives, or were infected in care facilities by infected workers. Yep, that's right, the Families First legislation exempts nursing homes and hospitals from having to provide paid time off pending test results or to quarantine, and they are not required to provide health insurance either. So workers who had symptoms were told "work or you won't get paid" and they worked. There are a number of case studies of this. My best friend's beloved Veteran father was infected this way and his care home was DEVASTATED, but they certainly were not "forced" to accept sick people much less very sick people. Frankly this is a gimondulous pet-peeve of mine because while there are sensible and achieveable strategies to protect the vulnerable - what I hear are a lot of hollow words without putting any muscle or substance behind them. Please don't make statements like "the biggest cause for the big improvement against the gloom and doom forcasts is that the models were intentionally inflated to drive the fear mongering" without sourcing them. I would be happy to see your sources. Mine say this: There were bunches of models. Every model rests upon assumptions. In some of the worst forcast models, the assumption was that no social distancing interventions would take place. That didn't happen, obviously, and thus the worst case scenarios were averted. That doesn't mean the models were "fear mongering" or hideously wrong, it means the model used assumptions which were incorrect because we CHOSE A DIFFERENT PATH. In some of the best models forecasting only 60,000 deaths, the assumption was that uniform social distancing interventions would remain in place through May. That clearly also didn't happen, so we're worse off than that. But I don't hear yelling about how hideously wrong and overly optimistic those models were. Huh. 3
Sundancer Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 close to mega concert crowd in a day. Not too smart.
spartacus Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Sundancer said: close to mega concert crowd in a day. Not too smart. unless, like all flu like illnesses, the flu season has passed along with the risk of transmission
spartacus Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 On 6/4/2020 at 7:25 PM, JohnC said: It is going to be interesting to follow if the demonstrations in the various locations result in a spike of cases. Crowds were tightly packed and to a significant extent were unmasked. The cause is worthy but the aftereffects of being in the crowd could have major health ramifications. I hope I'm wrong. riots not a problem for the virus. the "experts' have spoken https://www.zerohedge.com/health/1200-public-health-experts-advocate-mass-gatherings-because-white-supremacy-bigger-threat
JohnC Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, spartacus said: riots not a problem for the virus. the "experts' have spoken https://www.zerohedge.com/health/1200-public-health-experts-advocate-mass-gatherings-because-white-supremacy-bigger-threat You could listen to whomever you want to. I am more inclined to heed his warnings over those who are more dismissive of the risk. The "experts" you listen to are not the same ones I listen to. This virus issue is a complicated issue that the experts are still grappling with. You may believe in a magical solution to this public health issue but I don't. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/5/dr-anthony-fauci-warns-perfect-set-spread-coronavi/
BillsFan4 Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 13 hours ago, Sundancer said: close to mega concert crowd in a day. Not too smart. My comment is not at all directed at their reason for protesting, but Yeah, risky to say the least. All those people shouting in close proximity make me nervous. If someone has it, they shed more virus particles when talking loudly and/or shouting. Look at that chorus practice where 1 person had it and almost everyone there ended up sick. They were indoors and didn’t have masks on, but still. It’s the same reason I worry about Leary’s crowds for any reason. I feel like it has the potential to be a covid super spreader event. I will give them credit for at least wearing masks though. From every picture and video I saw it looked like the vast majority were wearing them. I guess we’re about to get a good idea of how effective masks are at limiting the spread of covid, huh? 2
BillsFan4 Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 From NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/05/871102763/new-coronavirus-hot-spots-emerge-across-south-and-in-california-as-northeast-slo “New Coronavirus Hot Spots Emerge Across South And In California, As Northeast Slows” Quote Mass protests against police violence across the U.S. have public health officials concerned about an accelerated spread of the coronavirus. But even before the protests began May 26, sparked by the May 25 death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, several states had been recording big jumps in the number of cases. The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, registered his concern at a congressional hearing Thursday. "We're very concerned that our public health message isn't resonating," Redfield said. "We continue to try to figure out how to penetrate the message with different groups. The pictures the chairwoman showed me are great examples of serious problems." The U.S. is still seeing roughly 20,000 new cases a day. There's a wide range from state to state, from one case a day, on average, last week in Hawaii all the way up to to 2,614 new cases a day in California. Specific areas in the Golden State have become hot spots, along with certain counties in every Southern state. The northeastern states of New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts — which among them accounted for a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. — are seeing a substantial slowing of new cases. Quote Tennessee and the Carolinas among Southern states showing jumps In the South, the timing of new cases appears to be linked to the reopening of restaurants, barber shops and gyms, which started in most states more than a month ago. Figures tracked by NPR show the number of cases in North Carolina and South Carolina this week is up by roughly 60% from two weeks ago. In Tennessee, that increase is 75%. Georgia and Louisiana look steadier, but they experienced some of the highest cases counts and fatalities in the region in recent weeks, at the height of the pandemic. In Southern states that were quick to reopen, officials sometimes felt the need to explain big increases in case counts on some days. In Georgia, for example, a state health official said a big one-day increase was because of a backlog of reporting casesfrom a commercial lab. In Tennessee this week, a daily jump of 800 cases was blamed partially on an ongoing prison outbreak that yielded 350 new positive test results. California case counts driven by populous Los Angeles County In California, counties are continuing to allow businesses to reopen even as newly confirmed coronavirus cases climb. The state experienced a 40% jump in cases over the last week. Large metro areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco have gradually lifted restrictions and Californians have responded by traveling to beaches and neighboring areas, blurring the effectiveness of the varying degrees of restrictions between adjacent counties. In the Northeast, where New York City became the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic for weeks, there are still thousands of new cases every day, although the rate of increase has slowed. It's down 41% in New Jersey over the past two weeks, down 33% in New York and down 13% in Massachusetts. But health officials caution that doesn't mean the coronavirus is under control in these three states. New York is still seeing more than 1,000 new cases a day; over the past week, Massachusetts averaged just over 500 a day, and New Jersey had close to 800.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 7, 2020 Author Posted June 7, 2020 On 6/5/2020 at 1:21 PM, spartacus said: based on actual data, there is a conflicting position that the lockdown did nothing to stop the spread of the virus. If you'd be kind enough to provide a source for this conflicting position based on actual data, I'd be happy to read it and give an evidence-based assessment I think that would be more meaningful (and possibly more useful) than me just giving an off-the-cuff reaction. Quote as soon as doctors stopped following the WHO treatment protocol and need for ventilators, the medical emergency was over I think this is pretty misleading. Here is a BBC lay article that IMHO does a very nice job of putting the learnings about the virus in to understandable terms. https://www.bbc.com/news/52760992 I recommend it as a good read - then you can decide an opinion of it. Everyone (including the physicians at WHO) underwent a pretty steep learning curve. What was realized is that covid-19 is actually not a respiratory disease. It can cause respiratory symptoms, severely damage the lungs, and cause critically low oxygen levels, but the underlying disease process is far broader than respiratory. To characterize improved scientific and medical understanding of what is still a very severe disease which is very challenging to treat, is IMHO misleading.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 7, 2020 Author Posted June 7, 2020 4 hours ago, JohnC said: You could listen to whomever you want to. I am more inclined to heed his warnings over those who are more dismissive of the risk. The "experts" you listen to are not the same ones I listen to. This virus issue is a complicated issue that the experts are still grappling with. You may believe in a magical solution to this public health issue but I don't. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/5/dr-anthony-fauci-warns-perfect-set-spread-coronavi/ Positive things about the protests: -they take place out-of-doors, where ventilation is typically excellent and UV exposure from sunlight may have an impact in reducing viral titer -in news coverage I have seen, many people are wearing masks or other facial coverage, at least over their mouths -people may not be spending huge amounts of time with the exact same people in the exact same configuration as when seated or kneeling at a religious service or in a restaurant, or standing at assigned stations in a meat packing plant. BUT, I have never participated in an actual protest demonstration so I don't know. -It appears a large majority of the protestors are relatively young, HS or college age or in their 20s-30s so they may be less likely to overwhelm the hospital system themselves Negative things about the protests: -No one knows the effect of inhaling crowd-control chemicals on covid-19 susceptibility -Likewise of just the stress of being in a crowd for hours, not to mention some people being beaten -Certainly being detained and incarcerated would place people in a high-risk situation for covid-19 spread with hours of close contact in vehicles or cells with limited ventilation -Because they are young, protestors who do develop covid-19 may become asymptomatic or presymptomatic spreaders (it seems young healthy people may take 14 days to show symptoms), thus they may be more likely to spread the disease unwittingly to older relatives, mentors, and friends if they don't observe social distancing outside the protests At a guess, in each city where there are protests, it's probably going to take 4-8 weeks to see whether or not there will be a protest-induced spike. I can try to run through the math behind that guess if anyone is interested 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 7, 2020 Author Posted June 7, 2020 On 6/3/2020 at 12:11 AM, Bad Things said: Are people even talking about Covid-19 up in America anymore? I don't know about "people" in general, but I can tell you this. My kid started an internship 1 June at a major US manufacturing company, at a plant outside Buffalo. This is not a young techie company, it's a >100 yr old manufacturing concern with a bit of a stodgy rep. It's a union plant. They are taking covid-19 quite seriously as they reopen. There are daily temperature checks and PPE checks upon entry. Everyone must wear a mask and PPE and if you don't have yours on as you enter you put it on. If you don't have it, they issue one. Eye protection. Masks stay on all day except for lunch breaks or water. The cafeteria is BYOL only, no food service, and many seats are covered with plastic to space people out. Disinfectant is everywhere. Instructions are if it's not your assigned workspace, you spray it down and wipe when you leave. Many white collar workers are still working from home by directive or alternating days on site, to de-densify the office space for those who must be there. The steps they are taking were negotiated and agreed with the union, which did NOT press for fewer measures - the contrary. You refuse to wear a mask or put it back on when asked, the union is not gonna have your back. I just found it interesting that for all the talk in segments of the popular press about "fake virus" and all that, both sides of the "boots on the floor, hands on the line" crowd (management and workers) seem to be taking covid-19 seriously still. They want to stay open, they want to get paid, "if this is what it takes, just do it". 2
Augie Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know about "people" in general, but I can tell you this. My kid started an internship 1 June at a major US manufacturing company, at a plant outside Buffalo. This is not a young techie company, it's a >100 yr old manufacturing concern with a bit of a stodgy rep. It's a union plant. They are taking covid-19 quite seriously as they reopen. There are daily temperature checks and PPE checks upon entry. Everyone must wear a mask and PPE and if you don't have yours on as you enter you put it on. If you don't have it, they issue one. Eye protection. Masks stay on all day except for lunch breaks or water. The cafeteria is BYOL only, no food service, and many seats are covered with plastic to space people out. Disinfectant is everywhere. Instructions are if it's not your assigned workspace, you spray it down and wipe when you leave. Many white collar workers are still working from home by directive or alternating days on site, to de-densify the office space for those who must be there. The steps they are taking were negotiated and agreed with the union, which did NOT press for fewer measures - the contrary. You refuse to wear a mask or put it back on when asked, the union is not gonna have your back. I just found it interesting that for all the talk in segments of the popular press about "fake virus" and all that, both sides of the "boots on the floor, hands on the line" crowd (management and workers) seem to be taking covid-19 seriously still. They want to stay open, they want to get paid, "if this is what it takes, just do it". That’s encouraging to hear. Some jobs, you just gotta be there. I have eye appointments for myself and my mother coming up. I need more contacts. The dental hygienist I’m holding off rescheduling for a bit. I’m in no rush there. My wife’s bank says they will keep an eye on things, but don’t expect any word on going back to the office until after September 1 at the earliest. They don’t have traditional retail branches and the last I heard they had managed to get approximately 93% of more than 50k employees working remotely. That is a pretty impressive feat, in my mind.
Bad Things Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 We just heard the great news that New Zealand no longer has any active cases of Covid-19. There hasn't been any new cases in over 17 days and the last patient has recovered and was sent home. 1 3
BillsFan4 Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 11 hours ago, Bad Things said: We just heard the great news that New Zealand no longer has any active cases of Covid-19. There hasn't been any new cases in over 17 days and the last patient has recovered and was sent home. I was just coming to post this. Congrats! https://www.axios.com/new-zealand-no-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-free-1f209ae3-46e5-4343-b076-189bde8c3953.html Just shows you what early widespread testing and lockdowns can do. They acted very quickly to stop this virus and it paid off Big time.
BillsFan4 Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 For those now saying the lockdowns in the US were unnecessary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/ “Shutdown prevented 60 million coronavirus infections, new study finds”. 2 different studies were published on the lockdowns in the US, UK, Europe and China. 1st one: the University of California at Berkeley researchers estimate stay at home orders, business closings and travel bans ended up preventing 285 million infections in China and 60 million cases in the US. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf 2nd one: researchers at Imperial College in London estimated shutdowns saved more than three million lives in 11 European countries and dropped infection rates by more than 80-percent. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
K-9 Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: For those now saying the lockdowns in the US were unnecessary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/ “Shutdown prevented 60 million coronavirus infections, new study finds”. 2 different studies were published on the lockdowns in the US, UK, Europe and China. 1st one: the University of California at Berkeley researchers estimate stay at home orders, business closings and travel bans ended up preventing 285 million infections in China and 60 million cases in the US. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf 2nd one: researchers at Imperial College in London estimated shutdowns saved more than three million lives in 11 European countries and dropped infection rates by more than 80-percent. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7 Why am I not surprised? The logic seemed intuitive all along. Yet there are those that will still argue it was unnecessary, “Look at Sweden!” But that’s the convenience of analyzing the shutdown in retrospect; people can always say it just never got as bad as all the models predicted so it wasn’t necessary after all.
Gray Beard Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said: For those now saying the lockdowns in the US were unnecessary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/ “Shutdown prevented 60 million coronavirus infections, new study finds”. 2 different studies were published on the lockdowns in the US, UK, Europe and China. 1st one: the University of California at Berkeley researchers estimate stay at home orders, business closings and travel bans ended up preventing 285 million infections in China and 60 million cases in the US. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf 2nd one: researchers at Imperial College in London estimated shutdowns saved more than three million lives in 11 European countries and dropped infection rates by more than 80-percent. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7 I think people should watch this video from back in March. This doctor does an excellent job Maybe it’s been posted already and I missed it. ”But if we do this right, nothing happens. Yeah. A successful shelter in place means that you're going to feel like it was all for nothing. And you'd be right. Because nothing means that nothing happened to your family. And that's what we're going for here.” 1 1
Recommended Posts