Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[K-9]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I also may have a few sources remaining.  I neither confirm nor deny this.

 

Too early for release of peer-reviewed studies, but it's actual data, not PR releases.

 

Can't help what Wall Street loves or dislikes.

I appreciate the effort here. But my point is that we are so breathlessly awaiting even a whiff of good news on the treatment front that we lose sight of the process and what it involves. My concern is that in the great and urgent rush to get there, that the treatment arena turns into the free for all, forget the oversight rules the FDA adopted for testing. Published data results or not, Moderna and other manufacturers are the last source I will rely on when it comes to assessing the promise of their own products. Some may call that cynical, but it’s really just common sense. 
 

And Wall Street is so utterly detached from reality, it doesn’t matter what floats that boat or not. 
 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by K-9

[The Dean]

15 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I appreciate the effort here. But my point is that we are so breathlessly awaiting even a whiff of good news on the treatment front that we lose sight of the process and what it involves. My concern is that in the great and urgent rush to get there, that the treatment arena turns into the free for all, forget the oversight rules the FDA adopted for testing. Published data results or not, Moderna and other manufacturers are the last source I will rely on when it comes to assessing the promise of their own products. Some may call that cynical, but it’s really just common sense. 
 

And Wall Street is so utterly detached from reality, it doesn’t matter what floats that boat or not. 
 

 

 

 

I'm actually a bit less concerned about that than I am for the "rush to manufacture" once a vaccine is approved. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I appreciate the effort here. But my point is that we are so breathlessly awaiting even a whiff of good news on the treatment front that we lose sight of the process and what it involves. My concern is that in the great and urgent rush to get there, that the treatment arena turns into the free for all, forget the oversight rules the FDA adopted for testing. Published data results or not, Moderna and other manufacturers are the last source I will rely on when it comes to assessing the promise of their own products. Some may call that cynical, but it’s really just common sense.

 

It's a real concern always, to balance safety and speed, and the FDA's recent track record with testing gives rise to legit concerns about judgement here.

 

I would say the results are legit. It's not like Moderna or other manufacturers are doing clinical trials in some kind of hermetically sealed dome.  They're in multiple sites, in multiple parts of the country, some being administered by universities, some by clinical trial organizations that are typically separate from the company itself - especially a small company like Moderna, which doesn't have an existing clinical trial organization on standby for whenever they might have a product to trial. (and even big companies, these days, outsource)

 

Like the meme says, people who posit grand company-driven conspiracies never actually managed real people on a real project.  To dismiss such results as "last source I will rely on", frankly, is not common sense.

 

To put the results in perspective is appropriate, though.  They found antibodies in 45 people.  Do the antibodies protect against disease?  How long do they last?  Will the same dose raise antibodies in people beyond the "young and in peak of good health" group?  Will eliminating the high-dose arm suffice to alleviate the adverse events?  Will a larger study turn up unacceptable adverse events? 

 

That's where you need to keep a careful watch, not on dismissing the results simply because a company is involved.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's a real concern always, to balance safety and speed, and the FDA's recent track record with testing gives rise to legit concerns about judgement here.

 

I would say the results are legit. It's not like Moderna or other manufacturers are doing clinical trials in some kind of hermetically sealed dome.  They're in multiple sites, in multiple parts of the country, some being administered by universities, some by clinical trial organizations that are typically separate from the company itself - especially a small company like Moderna, which doesn't have an existing clinical trial organization on standby for whenever they might have a product to trial. (and even big companies, these days, outsource)

 

Like the meme says, people who posit grand company-driven conspiracies never actually managed real people on a real project.  To dismiss such results as "last source I will rely on", frankly, is not common sense.

 

To put the results in perspective is appropriate, though.  They found antibodies in 45 people.  Do the antibodies protect against disease?  How long do they last?  Will the same dose raise antibodies in people beyond the "young and in peak of good health" group?  Will eliminating the high-dose arm suffice to alleviate the adverse events?  Will a larger study turn up unacceptable adverse events? 

 

That's where you need to keep a careful watch, not on dismissing the results simply because a company is involved.

Companies can’t help but be involved. We NEED them to be involved. Don’t misunderstand my intent here. I don’t dismiss them, I simply demand a qualified, independent confirmation from reputable sources. Common sense indeed. 
 

I’m skeptical of Moderna for many of the same reasons outlined in this article:

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/science-press-release-sudden-rise-vaccine-developer-moderna/story?id=70814887

 

A company given $483m in April? A 33% increase in stock price immediately upon the press release? One of its Board members named the new national “vaccine czar?” 

I wish them all the luck in the world and hope everything about their quick development of a vaccine comes to pass. But after seeing previously touted pharma companies come up short after the hype, like Abbott and their tests for example, I think it’s short sighted to put much stock into anything these companies say until proven true. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Companies can’t help but be involved. We NEED them to be involved. Don’t misunderstand my intent here. I don’t dismiss them, I simply demand a qualified, independent confirmation from reputable sources. Common sense indeed. 
 

I’m skeptical of Moderna for many of the same reasons outlined in this article:

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/science-press-release-sudden-rise-vaccine-developer-moderna/story?id=70814887

 

A company given $483m in April? A 33% increase in stock price immediately upon the press release? One of its Board members named the new national “vaccine czar?” 

I wish them all the luck in the world and hope everything about their quick development of a vaccine comes to pass. But after seeing previously touted pharma companies come up short after the hype, like Abbott and their tests for example, I think it’s short sighted to put much stock into anything these companies say until proven true.

 

It needs to be borne in mind that Abbot's antibody test and their standard RT-PCR test are some of the best out there.

The problem seems to be their rapid-test ID-Now technology.  Things don't always work in the field like they do in development, and you have to get 'em out in the field to see.

 

Moncef Slaoui was head of vaccine development at Glaxo Smith Kline before he worked at Moderna.  He's probably one of the most qualified scientists on the planet that could be tapped for the job.  I can think of maybe 3-5 others that would be arguably as qualified, and that's it.  Should he divest his stock options, yes he should and he's said he will.

 

I think you're skeptical of the wrong things, myself.  If Moderna's vaccine pans out and gets scaled up in manufacture, it will be because there is overwhelming evidence it is effective.  What I have more concern about is that another vaccine, such as Oxford University's, will actually show better efficacy and sooner but we won't approve it for use in US because they won't grant an American company an exclusive license to manufacture and market it.  THAT'S the factor to watch IMO, and scream about if it goes down.

Even so, the chance will be there (for any vaccine) that some side effect will crop up that was not seen in clinical trials, which are going to be rushed and abbreviated in this instance.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It needs to be borne in mind that Abbot's antibody test and their standard RT-PCR test are some of the best out there.

The problem seems to be their rapid-test ID-Now technology.  Things don't always work in the field like they do in development, and you have to get 'em out in the field to see.

 

Moncef Slaoui was head of vaccine development at Glaxo Smith Kline before he worked at Moderna.  He's probably one of the most qualified scientists on the planet that could be tapped for the job.  I can think of maybe 3-5 others that would be arguably as qualified, and that's it.  Should he divest his stock options, yes he should and he's said he will.

 

I think you're skeptical of the wrong things, myself.  If Moderna's vaccine pans out and gets scaled up in manufacture, it will be because there is overwhelming evidence it is effective.  What I have more concern about is that another vaccine, such as Oxford University's, will actually show better efficacy and sooner but we won't approve it for use in US because they won't grant an American company an exclusive license to manufacture and market it.  THAT'S the factor to watch IMO, and scream about if it goes down.

Even so, the chance will be there (for any vaccine) that some side effect will crop up that was not seen in clinical trials, which are going to be rushed and abbreviated in this instance.

I don’t doubt Moderna’s ability or that of Moncef Slaoui and I’m sorry you think my skepticism is an attack on either. It’s not. 
 

Just don’t tell me that what they released in that press announcement amounted to much of anything in terms of actual shared study results. It was very little at best. They are in pregame warmups and some people seem to think they have a huge lead in the 4th quarter. Not saying you’re one of those people as I suspect you know better, but in this atmosphere of needing to glom on and cling to ANY ray of hope, there is no shortage of people who will seek to exploit that. I’m tired of people blowing smoke up our collective asses. 
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I don’t doubt Moderna’s ability or that of Moncef Slaoui and I’m sorry you think my skepticism is an attack on either. It’s not. 
 

Just don’t tell me that what they released in that press announcement amounted to much of anything in terms of actual shared study results. It was very little at best.

 

Um, no one is telling you that? 

 

But that's because it's the nature of a Phase I study to "not amount to much of anything", not because "Moderna and other manufacturers are the last source" to rely on when presenting clinical trial results. 

 

Phase I clinical trials are the lowest bar.  It's testing safety at different dose ranges in a small number of healthy volunteers. 
 

Vaccines have the benefit of being able to look for antibodies, which is more significant than you think - inability to elicit an antibody response period has been a stumbling block of this whole RNA/DNA vaccine technology - but antibodies may or may not correlate to disease immunity.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um, no one is telling you that? 

 

But that's because it's the nature of a Phase I study to "not amount to much of anything", not because "Moderna and other manufacturers are the last source" to rely on when presenting clinical trial results. 

 

Phase I clinical trials are the lowest bar.  It's testing safety at different dose ranges in a small number of healthy volunteers. 
 

Vaccines have the benefit of being able to look for antibodies, which is more significant than you think - inability to elicit an antibody response period has been a stumbling block of this whole RNA/DNA vaccine technology - but antibodies may or may not correlate to disease immunity.

When you told me they released “actual data” I took it to mean much more than it actually was, which was nothing more than trumpeting their Phase 1 “lowest bar” result in only 8 of the 45 test subjects. To me, “actual data” should carry far more significance. I’m not alone in that opinion. 
 

Quote

“It’s a bit of a concern that they haven’t published the results of any of their ongoing trials that they mention in their press release. They have not published any of that,” Johns Hopkins University vaccine researcher Anna Durbin told Stat.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/19/vaccine-experts-say-moderna-didnt-produce-data-critical-to-assessing-covid-19-vaccine/
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/05/19/scientists-raise-questions-about-moderna-vaccine-in-market-shaking-report/#389e2a7e2136
 

And I just can’t shake the orchestration of the entire press release when top execs sell $30m in stock after the announcement on Monday. On the heels of such a limited result in a phase 1 trial? I know I’m skeptical, but that begs questions. Give me less market manipulation and more substance. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

When you told me they released “actual data” I took it to mean much more than it actually was, which was nothing more than trumpeting their Phase 1 “lowest bar” result in only 8 of the 45 test subjects. To me, “actual data” should carry far more significance. I’m not alone in that opinion. 

 

45 of 45 subjects had antibodies. 

Only 8 have been tested for neutralizing antibodies so far.  Neutralizing antibody tests require BSL-3 containment and take longer.

 

I guess you have your expectations, and you're entitled to them, but that's pretty par for the course info on preliminary read out from a Phase I trial.

 

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/19/vaccine-experts-say-moderna-didnt-produce-data-critical-to-assessing-covid-19-vaccine/

 

Some of those experts are a bit unrealistic in their expectations for rapid and transparent data sharing by companies for a prelim. read on a Ph I trial.  In my opinion.

 

Now if the NIAID is conducting the trial, the NIAID should publish, and I'm sure they will, but not at a preliminary read out stage.

 

All these guys are saying is that there isn't evidence that the vaccine is destined to work, and that's perfectly true (in fact, they make many of the exact same caveats I made in the post I linked for you) but it doesn't mean the data are unreliable.  Some of them come across as a bit

 

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/05/19/scientists-raise-questions-about-moderna-vaccine-in-market-shaking-report/#389e2a7e2136
 

And I just can’t shake the orchestration of the entire press release when top execs sell $30m in stock after the announcement on Monday. On the heels of such a limited result in a phase 1 trial? I know I’m skeptical, but that begs questions. Give me less market manipulation and more substance. 

 

If your point is you think the company is manipulating the market to make money, that's probably true, but it doesn't mean the product isn't promising.  It would be nice if the market were less easily swayed, but that's beyond my control or yours.

 

I'm out of here, believe whatcha like.

[K-9]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

If your point is you think the company is manipulating the market to make money, that's probably true, but it doesn't mean the product isn't promising.  It would be nice if the market were less easily swayed, but that's beyond my control or yours.

 

I'm out of here, believe whatcha like.

Not my point at all. It’s great that they saw an opportunity and were able to capitalize on that stock sale. It just strikes me as not having much faith in the long term company success, much of which hinges on the success of their vaccine development at the moment. 
 

What I believe is that we simply disagree on the significance of Moderna’s press release. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Not my point at all. It’s great that they saw an opportunity and were able to capitalize on that stock sale. It just strikes me as not having much faith in the long term company success, much of which hinges on the success of their vaccine development at the moment. 
 

What I believe is that we simply disagree on the significance of Moderna’s press release. 

 

...interesting...I had a six month follow up appointment with my physician on Wednesday......through his studies and research, he is optimistic that a vaccine will be available by November and even cited Moderna as a possible (nothing for sure and NOT probable though) developer.....as a layperson, I cannot quantify or qualify his optimism .....

[K-9]

4 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...interesting...I had a six month follow up appointment with my physician on Wednesday......through his studies and research, he is optimistic that a vaccine will be available by November and even cited Moderna as a possible (nothing for sure and NOT probable though) developer.....as a layperson, I cannot quantify or qualify his optimism .....

I hope your doctor is right. It would be an historical achievement in vaccine development to say the least. 
 

In the meantime, I’m looking forward to more meaningful announcements than company PR releases. 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

“SOME ARE WINNING - SOME ARE NOT

WHICH COUNTRIES DO BEST IN BEATING COVID-19?”

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/23/2020 at 8:17 AM, K-9 said:

Not my point at all. It’s great that they saw an opportunity and were able to capitalize on that stock sale. It just strikes me as not having much faith in the long term company success, much of which hinges on the success of their vaccine development at the moment. 
 

What I believe is that we simply disagree on the significance of Moderna’s press release. 

I’m not interested at all in Moderna’s press release.

 

Im interested in their preliminary phase I readout

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 5/23/2020 at 3:22 PM, K-9 said:

I hope your doctor is right. It would be an historical achievement in vaccine development to say the least. 
 

In the meantime, I’m looking forward to more meaningful announcements than company PR releases. 

 

...I did NOT mean to imply that he was citing Moderna as THE solution......my apology......I would have been more accurate to say he was citing Moderna as ONE example of MANY companies working towards a vaccine....perhaps he could be optimistic about November......I'm pretty sure Fauci said awhile ago that potentially fighting a two headed monster as in the upcoming flu season WITH Covid-19 active as well could be a daunting task (paraphrased)....

[Foxx]

this seems like a good post for today, though his memorial will have wait at least another year.

https://twitter.com/jsolomonReports/status/1264871344413585408

 

[LeGOATski]

47 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

$21 million hospital built for coronavirus victims in New York closes without ever seeing a patient

https://www.wftv.com/news/trending/21-million-hospital-built-coronavirus-victims-new-york-closes-without-ever-seeing-patient/Q3MJKWG3ENB23N3NPR7CVTWOIU/?fbclid=IwAR08cDg1mP4k7JPZ39z-gKkx4NFA7PA_BxnKfPWXVc86T7kgyHXu92kl_W8

 

 

Lol. Hard fail.

 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by LeGOATski

[SinceThe70s]

I'm posting this strictly for the humor value.

 

It's  a few weeks old, but yesterday my brother-in-law told me about the barber from Freeport Long Island who got cited for setting up shop in the back of his pickup truck. Quote from the barber:

 

"I own the truck, it's my truck, I'm allowed to do whatever I want in my truck, I think it's a freedom of speech or whatever you think ten commandments or whatever it is...."

 

http://longisland.news12.com/story/42088266/freeport-barber-receives-ticket-from-police-for-giving-haircuts-in-back-of-truck

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

Lol. Hard fail.

 

 

 

Being prepared for a worst case scenario is a hard fail? After the overrun health care systems we saw in Europe and China earlier on? 

[LeGOATski]

30 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Being prepared for a worst case scenario is a hard fail? After the overrun health care systems we saw in Europe and China earlier on? 

Yes, $21 MILLION...

 

I'm sure it won't go to waste...