Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 55 minutes ago, spartacus said: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report The 7 day moving ave of new Georgia cases does show a decrease at the time of re-open 14 days ago. As in NY, Atlanta may be the outlier in the state. As noted, the chart does show a continuing decrease in new cases, which directly contradicts the NBC "news" report 54% increase Without having a reference to what the NBC report actually said, it's really pretty pointless to debate. For example, while new cases may be decreasing, the sum of new cases since the reopening can still show an increase, and that is not a contradiction at all. I'm going to suggest we leave this topic absent an actual reference to what was actually said by NBC in full context. BTW the Georgia graph is kind of interesting. It shows a repeating pattern of a 7 day high followed by descending numbers, suggesting a regular cycle of tests being backlogged and run/entered - maybe having to do with weekends? There's really one data point that breaks the pattern, which is today's (8th day).
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 17 hours ago, Augie said: Sorry, I’m just a simple man, and I prefer pictures to all the links and numbers. Not good enough, Augie. You don't get to repeatedly go on about how NBC is lying, when you can't 1)provide a link to to the NBC article or 2) look at two numbers and do a ratio. https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia#historical Or if you want, you can pull it off the Georgia status report: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report Put the cursor on the daily cumulative cases for today. See the number. Write down the number. Now put the cursor on April 24. See the number. Write down the number. Divide today's number by April 24 number and subtract 1. That's the % increase. Perhaps your point of confusion is not understanding that cases per day can be declining every day, but the sum total of daily cases over 18 days can still represent a substantial increase in the total number of cases since a certain date? That's not a "lie" or a contradiction, it's just a property of summing a series of numbers. Quote I boil it down to this. The graph below from Georgia.Gov does NOT mesh with a 64% increase per NBC in cases since partial reopening: Correct. It meshes with a 53% increase in cases, but that doesn't mean NBC is lying, they may have a different source for numbers that the web site hasn't caught up with yet. Quote Who is lying, and how? (NBC just threw out a 64% increase since reopening like we are just supposed to take every word as fact with zero support.). The graph shows a clear and sharp decline. I don’t trust either of them, I just want transparency. Show your work! I want someone to look at the graph (updated throughout every day), and tell me how that represents a 64% increase since partial reopening. Augie, I got to ask you to stand down here. (edit: see below for link and tip of hat for providing it) 2x now, you've been provided with sources, data. You've been unable to substantiate your NBC news thing with a link. It's not OK to read what someone takes the time to explain, complete with links and explanations, and stamp your feet and yell "liar" and request transparency and "Show your work!". In fact, it's unreasonable and insulting. Two numbers and a ratio off a graph on the website you link seem simple enough for a "simple man" Two numbers and a ratio off the chart of numbers on another website (link provided) also seem simple enough for a "simple man". I don't think it's helpful to continue to toss around accusations of media lying when you can't substantiate what was said, and you can't apparently accept data provided to you. Edit: Here is a link to the NBC News broadcast in question. The Georgia section is at about 5:30. There is a "ticker" across the bottom of the screen "Coronavirus Cases Surging in some Reopened States". The actual statement is that covid-19 cases have increased 64% since the state reopened on 24 April. I interpret that as saying "the total number of cases from April 24 to now". Per the DPH data, that number is high (but the DPH data says preliminary, and it's possible NBC has a data source not yet available to the public). To Augie's point: while not exactly a lie per se, I would rate that news report as "framed to be deliberately misleading". The impression created by the "ticker" stating "coronavirus cases surging" is a larger-than-anticipated number of cases. Instead, as discussed above, a 54% increase in cases over 17 days is pretty much exactly what one would expect from a trajectory of "cases doubling every 4 weeks", which is what Georgia has been on - doubling every 4 weeks means 50% increase every 2 weeks, after all. A 64% increase would be a bit more than expected in 17 days, but given the variation in numbers, not surging. It seems to me that NBC there is deliberately trying to frame the news in an alarming way. Color me "unimpressed" by the journalism and integrity of NBC news here. I haven't watched network news programs in almost 20 years, ever since reading Gavin de Becker's excellent book "The Gift of Fear". Doesn't look as though I'm missing anything. 1
Augie Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Without having a reference to what the NBC report actually said, it's really pretty pointless to debate. For example, while new cases may be decreasing, the sum of new cases since the reopening can still show an increase, and that is not a contradiction at all. The claim about the NBC news report was that they reported 64% increase in new cases.... I pulled numbers off the dph.georgia site and the covidtracking.com site and calculated a 54% increase based upon those numbers The https://dph.georgia.gov site does not contradict this - it was one of my sources and both sources agreed pretty closely I'm going to suggest we leave this topic absent an actual reference to what was actually said by NBC in full context. BTW the Georgia graph is kind of interesting. It shows a repeating pattern of a 7 day high followed by descending numbers, suggesting a regular cycle of tests being backlogged and run/entered - maybe having to do with weekends? There's really one data point that breaks the pattern, which is today's (8th day). Very good point about the spikes and weekend backlogs. I hadn’t thought of that, but it does seem plausible. Still, while not anywhere near “out of the woods”, I feel encouraged by the general direction of the curve. I’m a fan of good news, and remaining careful.
Figster Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) Whats the old saying, "If you can't beat them, join them." Not wearing a mask or practicing social distancing seems crazy to most of us because we really don't have an alternative to protect ourselves or those around us at this point. On the other hand we have a good sized number of folks that for whatever the reason may be feel the need to use the freedoms our country has given them and make a stand. Well what If both sides could meet in the middle. We have vaccines in trial phase and the need for new ideas and applications to be tested. We need to build the Herd. If people are asking to be exposed give them what they want in a more controlled setting and pay them for their services. They can quarantine, test negative and go on about their business wearing a clearly visible indicator to those around them that they are now a herd test subject. Human Guinea pigs for hire... Edited May 12, 2020 by Figster
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 4 hours ago, Figster said: Whats the old saying, "If you can't beat them, join them." Not wearing a mask or practicing social distancing seems crazy to most of us because we really don't have an alternative to protect ourselves or those around us at this point. On the other hand we have a good sized number of folks that for whatever the reason may be feel the need to use the freedoms our country has given them and make a stand. Well what If both sides could meet in the middle. We have vaccines in trial phase and the need for new ideas and applications to be tested. We need to build the Herd. If people are asking to be exposed give them what they want in a more controlled setting and pay them for their services. They can quarantine, test negative and go on about their business wearing a clearly visible indicator to those around them that they are now a herd test subject. Human Guinea pigs for hire... I'm afraid this is opaque to me, especially the last part. What I would like to point out is that the very political leaders who have been referring to mask-wearing as "a personal choice, and I chose not to" (that's Missouri's (R) governor, for one), making an analogy between taking protective measures such as mask-wearing and "cowering in fear...." and who say we don't need more testing, seem to have undergone a "Sea Change" now that Covid-19 has been found close at THEIR hands. 1) The White House staff are all being tested every day. Every. Single. Day. All visitors are tested before entering. 2) Now that a couple of the staff have tested positive, what's the first action? ORDER THAT EVERYONE WEAR MASKS in the West Wing (except Pres. Trump). Maybe what the American people need, is what their leaders are prescribing for themselves: 1) More testing, especially for high-risk sectors like nursing home residents and those who care for them. Why can't THEY get tested every day? 2) Everybody mask up in public and at work, to protect each other. Your mask protects me. My mask protects you. How can that "meet in the middle" if you're unwilling to take that step to protect me and mine? It seems to me like trying to create a pee-free zone in a swimming pool, it just doesn't work. On some things there could and IMO should be discussion: "if we require masks and limit # of people, can we safely open the gyms? small retail shops?" etc. Maybe we should pay a bit more attention to what steps our leaders are taking to protect themselves (making everyone around them wear masks - no "personal choice", Do It; getting everyone around them tested daily), and less attention to their rhetoric. Oh, and on testing .... this site can be sorted by tests/1M population. On a per capita basis, US testing is less than Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Italy, New Zealand, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and about the same as UK. We have improved dramatically - credit where credit is due - but to say we're leading the world is misleading, at best. And while it's easier to be tested, it's considered pretty amazing that NYS announced nursing home workers would be tested 2x a week and that first responders can get tested 1x; in many states, this is NOT happening. 3 1
K-9 Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Oh, and on testing .... this site can be sorted by tests/1M population. On a per capita basis, US testing is less than Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Italy, New Zealand, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and about the same as UK. We have improved dramatically - credit where credit is due - but to say we're leading the world is misleading, at best. And while it's easier to be tested, it's considered pretty amazing that NYS announced nursing home workers would be tested 2x a week and that first responders can get tested 1x; in many states, this is NOT happening. Misleading or not, call it whatever you like. Making an international competition out of it is even worse.
bdutton Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Oh, and on testing .... this site can be sorted by tests/1M population. On a per capita basis, US testing is less than Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Italy, New Zealand, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and about the same as UK. We have improved dramatically - credit where credit is due - but to say we're leading the world is misleading, at best. And while it's easier to be tested, it's considered pretty amazing that NYS announced nursing home workers would be tested 2x a week and that first responders can get tested 1x; in many states, this is NOT happening. 12 minutes ago, K-9 said: Misleading or not, call it whatever you like. Making an international competition out of it is even worse. Here is a good map of the testing per 1000. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2020/05/04/face-masks-for-the-general-public.html Face masks could offer an important tool for contributing to the management of community transmission of Covid19 within the general population. Evidence supporting their potential effectiveness comes from analysis of: (1) the incidence of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission; (2) the role of respiratory droplets in transmission, which can travel as far as 1-2 meters; and (3) studies of the use of homemade and surgical masks to reduce droplet spread. Our analysis suggests that their use could reduce onward transmission by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic wearers if widely used in situations where physical distancing is not possible or predictable, contrasting to the standard use of masks for the protection of wearers. If correctly used on this basis, face masks, including homemade cloth masks, can contribute to reducing viral transmission. Key points Asymptomatic (including presymptomatic) infected individuals are infectious. Without mitigation, the current estimate is that 40%-80% of infections occur from individuals without symptoms1234. Universal screening of asymptomatic SARS-COV2 in women admitted for delivery in New York City shows that 13.7% were infected, and that asymptomatic women accounted for 88% of infected individuals in the study5. Of individuals who do become symptomatic, viral loads are the highest in the presymptomatic and early symptomatic phase, decreasing thereafter6789101112. Respiratory droplets from infected individuals are a major mode of transmission13. This understanding is the basis of the recommendations for physical distancing, and of the PPE guidance for healthcare workers14. Droplets do not only come from coughing or sneezing: in a-/pre-symptomatic individuals, droplets are generated via talking and breathing15. Face masks reduce droplet dispersal. Cloth-based face masks reduce emission of particles by variable amounts, for example Anfinrud et al15 showed that they are almost completely eliminated. Davies et al16 showed that cloth masks filtered viral particles during coughing at about 50 to 100% of the filtration efficiency of surgical masks, depending on fabric, with absolute filtration efficiencies of 50-70%, and about 70-80% for oral bacteria. van der Sande et al17 showed 50% filtering efficiency for airborne particles. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1 The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at stopping spread of the virus when compliance is high. The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Thus we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation. https://masks4all.co/ hard to tell how much of the effect is mask-wearing and how much is testing/tracing, but the testing/tracing "is what it is", so why not try the masks? Crazy Ninja Sewist Ladies who determined shop towels are among the best materials for masks, then tested patterns and found a very good pattern. I have one of these masks made for me by a friend, and it's The Bomb. Fits well, very comfortable, stays in place. https://www.businessinsider.com/instructions-for-making-blue-shop-towel-surgical-masks-2020-4?op=1 1 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, bdutton said: Here is a good map of the testing per 1000. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population This is a good site, Thank you! I particularly like that they allow you to download the data and to select what countries you want to show. So just for grins, I selected as many countries as I could from the "Green" set above (China was not a choice) We can see that on a per-capita basis, some countries are doing more testing than we, but a number are actually doing LESS testing or about the same amount, but containing disease more effectively. This may imply that public mask use may be a factor. It is fair to note that in some of these countries (Hong Kong, Taiwan) the public is being supplied with a quality mask.
BillsFan4 Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) Just came across this site. From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york You can pick any state. I just used NY since that’s where I live. Edited May 12, 2020 by BillsFan4
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Just came across this site. From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york You can pick any state. I just used NY since that’s where I live. TBH, I don't know what to make of the IHME data at all at this point. I just compared Georgia (which some feel has relaxed restrictions prematurely) to Missouri (which still has restrictions in place for the hardest hit areas KC and St Louis, and which is relaxing them in a very phased way, akin to NYS). They have very different predictions ?♂️
spartacus Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, K-9 said: Misleading or not, call it whatever you like. Making an international competition out of it is even worse. testing would be important if the tests were reliable letting companies release test kits based on 50-100 person trials is not doing much for reliability perhaps more time could be spent on validating the technology in tests before forcing maximum testing on the public
bdutton Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This is a good site, Thank you! I particularly like that they allow you to download the data and to select what countries you want to show. So just for grins, I selected as many countries as I could from the "Green" set above (China was not a choice) We can see that on a per-capita basis, some countries are doing more testing than we, but a number are actually doing LESS testing or about the same amount, but containing disease more effectively. This may imply that public mask use may be a factor. It is fair to note that in some of these countries (Hong Kong, Taiwan) the public is being supplied with a quality mask. Lots of other factors regarding effectiveness such as effectiveness of stay at home orders, geographic, population densities, weather, public transportation, personal hygiene practices, cultural ways, etc...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, spartacus said: testing would be important if the tests were reliable letting companies release test kits based on 50-100 person trials is not doing much for reliability perhaps more time could be spent on validating the technology in tests before forcing maximum testing on the public Perhaps you could provide more information about what "tests are not reliable" and what companies are releasing kits based upon 50-100 person trials? The diagnostic tests (RT-PCR) are being quite carefully monitored. I'm not aware of anyone releasing diagnostic tests based upon 50-100 person trials, nor any hospitals/public health departments using such tests. I have no idea what you mean by "forcing maximum testing on the public". If you work at the White House or wish to visit President Trump, you are forced to get a test; most places of which I'm aware, people would like more testing to be available, especially for their elders and elder caregivers, and nothing is being "forced on the public". The antibody testing is considered "informational" so it's being handled differently, but the graphs being presented and the discussion around testing in different countries is all about diagnostic testing. I think this implication that testing is not important because the diagnostic tests are unreliable or released upon very limited datasets is misleading, but I'll await your sources and further information.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, bdutton said: Lots of other factors regarding effectiveness such as effectiveness of stay at home orders, geographic, population densities, weather, public transportation, personal hygiene practices, cultural ways, etc... Fair. Superficially, many of those countries have quite high population density (Taiwan, Hong Kong etc) and similar social distancing orders. Many have warmer weather said to be (or perhaps simply hoped to be) less conducive to viral transmission. But of course you are correct that the "devil is in the details" and some may have been more effective than others.
bdutton Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Fair. Superficially, many of those countries have quite high population density (Taiwan, Hong Kong etc) and similar social distancing orders. Many have warmer weather said to be (or perhaps simply hoped to be) less conducive to viral transmission. But of course you are correct that the "devil is in the details" and some may have been more effective than others. One important factor to include in mortality rate is the population's density of at risk people. We have a lot more people in the US that are obese and have diabetes etc...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 33 minutes ago, bdutton said: One important factor to include in mortality rate is the population's density of at risk people. We have a lot more people in the US that are obese and have diabetes etc... Mortality rates weren't being discussed in the OP to which you responded. The original figure was rolling average of new cases Jan 22 - May 2 in a bunch of countries, attempting to correlate to mask use and to test/trace/isolate practices, and then me selecting most of the countries whose case load has fallen to a low level and US on a plot of tests per capita to see whether testing prevalence would explain the results (it doesn't). I do agree with your point that other factors, such as adherence to stay-at-home orders and strictness of same, come into play and are hard to sort. But at some point, may we acknowledge that a whole lot of countries, including democracies, with superficially less resources and infrastructure, appear to be doing rather better at managing covid-19, and ask why? It seems the tendency is to make excuses - more diabetes (not so, and may not affect the case numbers), more obesity (true, but may not affect the case numbers) etc etc. Our president has declared Americans to be "Warriors". Warriors are usually armed and equipped in some way. I believe military history shows warriors who aren't properly armed and equipped or led with the proper tactics, are usually cut to pieces in their first battle. If we're "warriors", it's reasonable to ask what is the proper equipment for this battle - Cu masks like Limeaid posted about being distributed to every citizen in Hong Kong? Medical procedure masks as are distributed in Taiwan, S. Korea, etc? Improvise your own? Or no masks? Is mask wearing still a "personal choice" after the White House scurries to mask up all its staffers in response to a couple positive tests? If we are warriors, how about testing and tracing as a battle tactic? Or is it "the White House tests every staffer and every visitor every single day, but what do we need with more testing across the country?"
K-9 Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 2 hours ago, spartacus said: testing would be important if the tests were reliable letting companies release test kits based on 50-100 person trials is not doing much for reliability perhaps more time could be spent on validating the technology in tests before forcing maximum testing on the public I agree, but the FDA has already screwed that pooch. It’s the wild, wild west in the testing game with literally hundreds of tests approved without the normal and proper oversight.
BillsFan4 Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 I haven’t had a chance to read through all the guidelines contained in this link but it seems like a pretty decent resource so I figured I’d share. https://www.backtoworksafely.org Quote The links below offer specific, easy-to-follow, science-based recommendations for limiting the transmission of the coronavirus while operating a wide variety of businesses, including restaurants, retail outlets, and hair and nail salons. These guidelines were developed for those smaller business that don't have readily available occupational health and safety resources. We encourage employers, employees, and customers to carefully read and implement as many of the recommendations contained in the guidance document provided for your industry as possible. It’s from the American Industrial Hygiene Association.
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