Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Sundancer said:

What we are seeing on fatalities in the US is probably a result of our larger country and areas hitting peaks at different times. Where Italy and Spain hit their peaks and dropped off in similar ways, the US remains at its peak deaths/day steadily almost all month, including yesterday. NY has dropped off but NJ is still hitting its daily death highs and so are MA and PA. I am not sure if that means that other states will peak even later than these or if this will finally drop in the coming weeks. It's hard to say what relaxing the lockdown without testing/tracking in place will do to the numbers. 

 

 

If we are heading to a gradual drop off like Italy (see chart below) with a month of more of 1000-1500 deaths per day into June, we will cross the 100K deaths before Independence Day easily. That will be tough to accept. 

 

With less then 1% of the US population infected its easy to see how much worse it could actually get without proper intervention in my humble opinion. 

 

 

[Sundancer]

2 hours ago, Figster said:

With less then 1% of the US population infected its easy to see how much worse it could actually get without proper intervention in my humble opinion. 

 

 

 

The real number may be higher than 1% but it's not 20% like some extrapolate from some NYS data. 

 

The case counts are going to go up with restrictions being lifted. Just hope they go up slowly enough for our healthcare to take care of them with some distancing in place and weather breaking. It's a concern. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Sundancer

[Figster]

42 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

The real number may be higher than 1% but it's not 20% like some extrapolate from some NYS data. 

 

The case counts are going to go up with restrictions being lifted. Just hope they go up slowly enough for our healthcare to take care of them with some distancing in place and weather breaking. It's a concern. 

Its possible slowly lifting restrictions in a safe and timely manner may help root out small pockets of Covid 19 super carriers. Until everyone can be tested locating small outbreaks before they become larger is the key to success IMO. So while it may mean others will test positive because of the lifting of restrictions. My hopes are the ones that do can sound an alarm quickly and give accurate information on thier whereabouts that will help save others. Eventually getting everyone on the same timetable across the nation makes sense IMO.

 

I suppose there is an argument to be made in that respect.

[Sundancer]

29 minutes ago, Figster said:

Its possible slowly lifting restrictions in a safe and timely manner may help root out small pockets of Covid 19 super carriers. Until everyone can be tested locating small outbreaks before they become larger is the key to success IMO. So while it may mean others will test positive because of the lifting of restrictions. My hopes are the ones that do can sound an alarm quickly and give accurate information on thier whereabouts that will help save others. Eventually getting everyone on the same timetable across the nation makes sense IMO.

 

I suppose there is an argument to be made in that respect.

 

I'm for that, but you'll have to have rapid testing in place as well as tracking to make a difference. It looks like we're opening well before that phase is read. 

[snafu]

On 4/30/2020 at 2:52 PM, bdutton said:

Results of the first ultraviolet light suppository on this test subject look promising.

 

 

In my top five favorite movies.

We’ve been doing a Covid game/movie night for the past month in my house.

This was my film choice.  It was completely panned by my family (but it grew on them after the fact). I ignored them completely and enjoyed the show.

 

[Taraka]

Exactly.

[Gray Beard]

41 minutes ago, ~Kostabi~ said:

 

 

Couldn’t get your link to work, so I found it in YouTube (I’m bored)

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/30/2020 at 9:41 PM, UConn James said:

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741
Gain-of-function... bio-weapon manufacturing... what’s the difference?

 

I'll put my $0.02 out there and say if Shi Zheng-Li and Massachusetts company EcoHealth were planning gain-of-function research into bat coronaviruses, you can put me in the camp that thought such experiments were a Very Bad Idea when they were proposed a decade ago for Bird Flu viruses, and I'm totally on board with the NIH shutting it down.

 

That said, I have a good bit of faith in our virologists to be able to see when something is "cut and splice" put together from 1-2 known viruses vs. natural mutation:

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins

 

"Bedford’s analyses of RaTG13 and 2019-nCoV suggest that the two viruses shared a common ancestor 25 to 65 years ago, an estimate he arrived at by combining the difference in nucleotides between the viruses with the presumed rates of mutation in other coronaviruses. So it likely took decades for RaTG13-like viruses to mutate into 2019-nCoV."

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/30/2020 at 3:13 PM, Figster said:

Speaking of rays,

 

https://radiationoncology.emory.edu/news/featured/low-dose-chest-radiation-for-covid19-patients.html

 

 Could radiation help unlock some of the mysteries to Covid 19?

 

I've said several times to friends that we're going to be re-learning techniques from an earlier era that were shelved.  The strategy for having patients sleep on their stomachs ("prone positioning") for improved oxygenation was apparently used to treat tuberculosis patients pre-antibiotic

 

Chest x-rays were likewise an early-century technique to calm (kill) rapidly proliferating cells - which in this case would be the inflammatory response in the lungs.

 

Apparently this group is using a linear accelerator, though, so I'm not sure how widely applicable their approach will prove - if it was used 100 years ago it must be able to be applied with more conventional x-ray equipment, one would think? 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

I'd like to vote for hunky drunk...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

New Mexico Governor cuts off all roads into and out of Gallup, NM at the request of its Mayor:

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/gallup-new-mexico-riot-control-act-coronavirus/#

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-metro-area-tracker.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

 

 

https://cvprovider.nmhealth.org/public-dashboard.html

[Figster]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've said several times to friends that we're going to be re-learning techniques from an earlier era that were shelved.  The strategy for having patients sleep on their stomachs ("prone positioning") for improved oxygenation was apparently used to treat tuberculosis patients pre-antibiotic

 

Chest x-rays were likewise an early-century technique to calm (kill) rapidly proliferating cells - which in this case would be the inflammatory response in the lungs.

 

Apparently this group is using a linear accelerator, though, so I'm not sure how widely applicable their approach will prove - if it was used 100 years ago it must be able to be applied with more conventional x-ray equipment, one would think? 

 

 

 

This is an older article from back in 2011 that has some interesting information.

 

https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/6932-the-effects-of-low-dose-radiation

 

It would be interesting to see some data on workers in the Nuclear Industry who have tested positve for Covid 19. Or radiologists in the medical industry.

 

Good call on the earlier era practices coming back to aid us.

Edited May 2, 2020 by Figster

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

This is an older article from back in 2011 that has some interesting information.

 

https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/6932-the-effects-of-low-dose-radiation

 

It would be interesting to see some data on workers in the Nuclear Industry who have tested positve for Covid 19. Or radiologists in the medical industry.

 

Good call on the earlier era practices coming back to aid us.

 

I expect such workers wouldn't get the directed, timely dosage needed to be effective.  It's not the radiation per se, it's hitting the lungs right when they have an inflammatory process taking off, to calm things down. 

 

Sort of like the difference between police officers riding horses along the perimeter of an unruly crowd to achieve control, vs. police officer riding horse on a routine patrol.

18 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

I'm for that, but you'll have to have rapid testing in place as well as tracking to make a difference. It looks like we're opening well before that phase is read. 

 

Yeah, and then there's this.  The authors opinion, of course.

 

[Figster]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I expect such workers wouldn't get the directed, timely dosage needed to be effective.  It's not the radiation per se, it's hitting the lungs right when they have an inflammatory process taking off, to calm things down. 

 

Sort of like the difference between police officers riding horses along the perimeter of an unruly crowd to achieve control, vs. police officer riding horse on a routine patrol.

Good point

 

 Its possible however that some are exposed to a daily low dosage that might be equivalent in my humble opinion. What is the cumulative effect? Nuclear workers for instance are very closely monitored and the levels of radiation they are exposed to on a daily basis is logged carefully in accordance with ALARA. The main Dosimetry to monitor the exposure is worn on the chest area. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Figster

[BillsFan4]

 

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

 

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

The real number may be higher than 1% but it's not 20% like some extrapolate from some NYS data. 

 

The case counts are going to go up with restrictions being lifted. Just hope they go up slowly enough for our healthcare to take care of them with some distancing in place and weather breaking. It's a concern. 

 

Real number over most of US likely to be 2-4% at present.   Higher in outbreak centers like NYC, lower in some areas. 

 

Why?
1 million confirmed, tested infections is 0.33% of the US population

Epidemiologists have been saying that unless the positive test rate is <5%,  we're likely missing infections.  For most of the "hotspot areas" the rate of positives is more like 1/2 (NJ) to 1/3 (NYS).  Their 'educated guess' is that ~10x more people are infected, which would mean an infection rate of 3%.

 

That's pretty much in line with what antibody studies outside NYC have been saying so far:

Santa Clara - 3,300 residents 1.5% extrapolated to 2.4-4.2% (extrapolation and quality of test questioned)

Los Angeles - 863 residents 4.1% (2.8-5.6%) (same test as Santa Clara)

Miami - 750 residents/week, 6% positives (Biomedomics test) (20% false negatives, 15% false positives in side-by-side assessment)

NYS - 3,000 residents - <4% downstate, 12-14% Westchester and Rockport, 17% Long Island, 21% in NYC (reliable Wadsworth Center test 93-100% specificity)

      Should get update soon, apparently testing is ongoing at various sites 100-150/day
 

U of Washington in Seattle is really ramping up testing using the said-to-be very specific Abbott Labs test

 

We should have more data soon.

 

PS in line with Imperial College estimates of infection rates in Europe - 3% across most of Europe, ~10% in Italy and ~15% in Spain which would probably mean 3-4% in most of the country and more like 20% in the "hot spots".

 

[Jrb1979]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I expect such workers wouldn't get the directed, timely dosage needed to be effective.  It's not the radiation per se, it's hitting the lungs right when they have an inflammatory process taking off, to calm things down. 

 

Sort of like the difference between police officers riding horses along the perimeter of an unruly crowd to achieve control, vs. police officer riding horse on a routine patrol.

 

Yeah, and then there's this.  The authors opinion, of course.

 

That is why of we had to be locked down in the first place. People just don't get the 6 ft rule. This may be harsh but I hope everyone of them get it. Karma. 

[BillsFan4]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, and then there's this.  The authors opinion, of course.

 

 

 ?

 

Just saw this :

 

 

Quote

Photos captured by ABC7's Caroline Patrickis and Ben Rice show many people not adhering to social distancing guidelines set forth by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser.

 

look at those crowds! (click on link to see all the photos)

 

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 ?

 

Just saw this :

 

look at those crowds! (click on link to see all the photos)

 

 

 

Psycho-Chicken?  Why on earth was a National Mall flyover  sure to draw crowds scheduled during a stay-at-home order?  Why not just have a parade, 1918 Philly style?

 

It's almost as though someone wants to have things both ways - to be able to point at actual National guidelines and say "hey, listening to the experts!" while simultaneously appealing to those who consider them unwarranted. ?

 

From your link:
"Despite orders from local leaders to not gather in large groups during the pandemic, hundreds of folks gathered on the National Mall this morning to witness a flyover by the U.S. Navy Blue Angels and Air Force Thunderbirds saluting essential workers on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic. "

 

You think maybe if they'd asked the doctors and nurses on the frontlines they would have said "Stay the **** at home and make our lives better with fewer seriously ill covid-19 patients to treat"?

[BillsFan4]

 

 

?‍♂️

Edited May 2, 2020 by BillsFan4