Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[BillsFan4]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But I thought he said they would supervise and push back on states that reopened without meeting the guidelines?

He said of gov. Kemp- “we’ll see what happens. He's a very capable man. He knows what he’s doing. He’s done a very good job as governor in Georgia,” and said he’d be talking to kemp very soon. So it sounds like he’s on board with Georgia opening to me. 

 

?‍♂️

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

52 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But I thought he said they would supervise and push back on states that reopened without meeting the guidelines?

 

how to answer in the politically correct way??  (and not get in trouble) 

 

 

 

I quickly had to edit that last post to be "neutral" 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

I had read denim makes good face mask material 

 

   

 

you just hope people don't use the "knee" area 

 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But I thought he said they would supervise and push back on states that reopened without meeting the guidelines?

Probably a lot harder to do when you didn't actually order them to close anything down in the first place.

[spartacus]

On 4/21/2020 at 8:07 AM, plenzmd1 said:

@Hapless Bills Fan, care to weigh on on this odious issue? 

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/can-the-coronavirus-be-spread-through-farts/

 

I saw you posted the below in the fact thread

________________________________________________________

K, i don't know how to read this article correctlytly, our fearless leader @Hapless Bills Fan will need to show me where the below conclusions are stated in the pre print( which i have not learned has not been peer reviewed..correct?)

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20051540v1

 

Anyway, this is synopsis of what i saw on CNBC with their CEO.

 

BioBot small starup that can analyse wastewater and understand where ceratin thisgs are happening..finding where opiod use is heavy for instance. CEO mentioned developing countires are using their tech to spot out breaks of polio before sysmptoms present.

 

Today, she said they did a study of Wastewater on a portion of the Boston area on March 25 showed in an area with 2.3M people, there could be upwards of 115,000 infected. At that same time, there was 446 confirmed cases of the virus.

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

this equates to an infection rate of .38%.

The death rate is a fraction of this

 

If this is anywhere close to accurate, it  totally destroys the gloom and doom forecasts calling for a continued shutdown

additional testing should bolster the calls to re-open most of America

 

 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Haircuts, massage parlors, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors? Is he that stupid, or might he be trying to thin the herd a bit in Georgia? Hardly the backbone of our economy. 

It will be interesting to see how many people avoid those places anyways even after the lockdown is lifted.  At least it's warm in Georgia so we can test the warm weather slows the spread hypothesis.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I'm just a schmuck behind a keyboard but I think I can say this 

 

We may never know how many are infected until every person in the US is tested.

Everyone will  not get a test. 

 

If they do,  it will take well over a year or more to test the over 328.2 million recorded Americans based on 2019 numbers. 

 

How many Americans have been tested thus far?  1 Million, 2 million?   Lets say 10 million.  There are still 318 million left to go. 

 

So tossing stats to prove a theory at this time is kind of fruitless.  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[plenzmd1]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I'm just a schmuck behind a keyboard but I think I can say this 

 

We may never know how many are infected until every person in the US is tested.

Everyone will  not get a test. 

 

If they do,  it will take well over a year or more to test the over 328.2 million recorded Americans based on 2019 numbers. 

 

How many Americans have been tested thus far?  1 Million, 2 million?   Lets say 10 million.  There are still 318 million left to go. 

 

So tossing stats to prove a theory at this time is kind of fruitless.  

 

 

 

 

 

I am not buying all that. The more and more studies that come out about true infection rate , I think we can extrapolate some sore of infectious rate even without testing 100% of the population. 

[Augie]

32 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It will be interesting to see how many people avoid those places anyways even after the lockdown is lifted.  At least it's warm in Georgia so we can test the warm weather slows the spread hypothesis.

 

Like most people, I desperately need a haircut. The closest I’ll come to getting one anytime soon will be to drive by my barber shop to see if anybody shows up. 

 

We broke out the clippers yesterday and cleaned it up a bit, I can live with that for now. 

[Mr Info]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

We may never know how many are infected until every person in the US is tested.

Everyone will  not get a test. 

 

If they do,  it will take well over a year or more to test the over 328.2 million recorded Americans based on 2019 numbers. 

 

Even if they could perform the antibody test on everyone right now there could be false negatives either very early (prior to symptom onset) or very late in the recovery stage. 
If you did test + it might not be a pass to go anywhere. Still undetermined would be whether you could become reinfected.

But let’s assume you are immune and you go to an outing and shake hands, mingle like the old times and end up interacting with someone who is actively infected. Even though you are immune, could you pass it to someone compromised later that same evening when greeting them? You assumed you were immune and all is ok.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Mr Info

[plenzmd1]

33 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Like most people, I desperately need a haircut. The closest I’ll come to getting one anytime soon will be to drive by my barber shop to see if anybody shows up. 

 

We broke out the clippers yesterday and cleaned it up a bit, I can live with that for now. 

wife cut my with clippers the other day, been trying to get her to do it for years. Now i know why she is not an athlete..hand eye not her thing!

 

When she pulled the straight edge and said  lets get the top/front of your neck smooth, i politly declined. I see that insurance payment go out every month

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Like most people, I desperately need a haircut. The closest I’ll come to getting one anytime soon will be to drive by my barber shop to see if anybody shows up. 

 

We broke out the clippers yesterday and cleaned it up a bit, I can live with that for now. 

I saw the mayor of Sandy Springs talking about if he’d go out and get a haircut and he said he had a “cut and suck” so he’s ok for now. Is that a reference to a flowbie device of some sort? If not, I don’t wanna know. 

[plenzmd1]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

I saw the mayor of Sandy Springs talking about if he’d go out and get a haircut and he said he had a “cut and suck” so he’s ok for now. Is that a reference to a flowbie device of some sort? If not, I don’t wanna know. 

Hmm, was not my experience ..i guess being the mayor has its privileges

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I saw the mayor of Sandy Springs talking about if he’d go out and get a haircut and he said he had a “cut and suck” so he’s ok for now. Is that a reference to a flowbie device of some sort? If not, I don’t wanna know. 

 

 

IDK, but you made me wonder where Krafty gets his hair cut? 

[K-9]

Looks like some business owners in Georgia are siding with the science. Kudos. 
 

https://apnews.com/ee38c361b83cf40c8e92f82ab6019565

 

Quote

 

In Savannah, Mark Lebos closed his gym March 11. He reached out to clients Tuesday to tell them his business, Strong Gym, won’t be reopening yet. Lebos said reopening would be professional negligence. 

“We are not going to be a vector of death and suffering,” he said.

 

 

 

 

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I saw the mayor of Sandy Springs talking about if he’d go out and get a haircut and he said he had a “cut and suck” so he’s ok for now. Is that a reference to a flowbie device of some sort? If not, I don’t wanna know. 

 

Well, the massage parlors are opening as well.   May as well double dip...

[Augie]

3 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, the massage parlors are opening as well.   May as well double dip...

 

That’s only for the young guys out there.....

 

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

Looks like some business owners in Georgia are siding with the science. Kudos. 
 

https://apnews.com/ee38c361b83cf40c8e92f82ab6019565

 

I’m watching the local news (something I try to NEVER do, but I want to see Gov Kemp try to explain why he made the worst possible choices to reopen). Somebody teased that, but I have yet to see it addressed.

 

Anyway........they have interviewed a bunch of local salons and other businesses. No idea how the media has skewed this, but about half have said something like “#@&$ NO! I’m not opening and I polled the staff. They want no part of opening at this point!” 

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

I saw the mayor of Sandy Springs talking about if he’d go out and get a haircut and he said he had a “cut and suck” so he’s ok for now. Is that a reference to a flowbie device of some sort? If not, I don’t wanna know. 

 

A cut and suck refers to vacuum device used to pick up any fine hairs cut and left behind. My barber uses one too. 

I also get the straight blade, neck massage and hot towel. 

 

VA law disallows barbers but allows sidewalk maintenance.  "Essential" in VA appears related to who has contract with the state.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, spartacus said:

 

I saw you posted the below in the fact thread

________________________________________________________

K, i don't know how to read this article correctlytly, our fearless leader @Hapless Bills Fan will need to show me where the below conclusions are stated in the pre print( which i have not learned has not been peer reviewed..correct?)

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20051540v1

 

Anyway, this is synopsis of what i saw on CNBC with their CEO.

 

BioBot small starup that can analyse wastewater and understand where ceratin thisgs are happening..finding where opiod use is heavy for instance. CEO mentioned developing countires are using their tech to spot out breaks of polio before sysmptoms present.

 

Today, she said they did a study of Wastewater on a portion of the Boston area on March 25 showed in an area with 2.3M people, there could be upwards of 115,000 infected. At that same time, there was 446 confirmed cases of the virus.

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

this equates to an infection rate of .38%.

The death rate is a fraction of this

 

If this is anywhere close to accurate, it  totally destroys the gloom and doom forecasts calling for a continued shutdown

additional testing should bolster the calls to re-open most of America

 

You appear to be dividing 446/115,000 to obtain an "infection rate of 0.38%"  Um, no, that's not right, but pause to address another issue.  I'll get back to it.

 

Walk me through the logic here.  Work with me.  Help me understand.

 

We have X hospital beds and Y ICU beds.  We can make them grow with temporary hospitals and magic ventilator tricks - but not infinitely (and staff quickly becomes limiting, even if you keep most of 'em healthy which we didn't.  NYC is currently running on 'relief staff' bussed in from Upstate.  Stay healthy, Upstate!)

 

Let's pick NYC, which kind of made a bit of a mess for itself by delaying shutdown.

 

The reason NYC shut down was not the death rate.  It was the exponential trajectory of cases showing up at hospitals seriously or critically ill.  It quickly became clear that the number of people who required hospitalization and critical care was growing exponentially, and that unchecked, it would be way more than 10X and 10Y or even 20X or 20Y.  And people would need hospital care who couldn't get it.  Doctors would have to make terrible, PTSD-like decisions about "who gets the ventilator?"

 

So we shut down to "flatten the curve" and slow the exponential growth.  We sent people home (without testing) who quite possibly were sick enough that they should have been hospitalized.  We increased hospital capacity by stacking patients down the hallways, building temporary hospitals, and adding beds where we could.  We added ICU capacity by splitting ventilators, using CPAPs and BiPAPs as vents, and obtaining more vents from emergency supplies and storage that wound up in the ERs and ordinary rooms.

 

And it worked.  The curve flattened.  We were able to treat the most critically ill.  Doctors didn't have to make those terrible decisions that were made in Northern Italy.  The case fatality rate is probably 3-10x higher than it should be because of ICU patients being cared for in ERs and ordinary rooms and leaving patients home until their disease was too advanced to treat, but we made it.

 

Still, 15,000 people died in NYC alone.  Many are still on ventilators and may yet die.

 

Now let's say it's all true that we now learn the real number of covid-19 infections is not the tested 330,117 infections in the NYC area.

Let's say it's not the 10x that some epidemiologists predict, so there are actually 3,301,170 infections in NYC (16-32% of 19M people)

Maybe it's 20% or 40% or even 60% more.  Maybe it's 200% - 6.6M people.

 

How does more overall covid-19 infected people and a lower true death rate change the fact that enough people (even with a shut down) got seriously ill that the hospitals were totally slammed and overwhelmed, that they were hydrating and sending people home who probably should have been admitted, and admitting only people who were in such critical condition that patients coding (heart stop) before they could be intubated became all too common?

 

Many cities which shut down earlier in the exponential growth of the epidemic are slammed, but still within capacity - Boston, St Louis, Atlanta.  But they were still on that exponential trajectory to overwhelm the healthcare system before they shut down.

 

I just don't understand the logic that says if there are actually more cases then we think, it means we didn't really have to shutdown or may not have to stay shutdown if we aren't successful at containing when we open back up.  If the same number of seriously and critically ill cases occur, why does it matter if they are 15% of the total cases or 1.5% of the total cases (because many more cases than originally thought)? 

 

Whatever the true death rate is found to be when the dust settles, there were enough cases to overwhelm the health care system. 

 

And unless we've actually achieved herd immunity (50% or 60% of the 19M NYC residents infected people or 9.5M - 11.4M people) if we open up freely without precautions, what will keep infections from surging again to the point where hospitals get overwhelmed again?

 

OK, now back to 0.38%.  The infection rate is not 447/115,000.  The infection rate would be 115,000 (on March 25) / 2.3 M greater Boston residents, which is 5% as of that date.

 

The Boston case count is currently 33,000; having ~250x more cases at the start (115,000/447) using a simple proportion [note: this is totally incorrect], would mean that at this point, all of Boston's 2.3M residents would actually now be infected something like 4x over, and immune.

 

I don't think we're that lucky.  A recent antibody survey on the street of one of the most heavily infected areas of Boston found only 30% immune.  Further, more representative antibody tests will be necessary to figure out what's going on, but having everyone (or even 50% of everyone) already infected and immune seeeeeems unlikely to me.

[K-9]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You appear to be dividing 446/115,000 to obtain an "infection rate of 0.38%"  Um, no, that's not right, but pause to address another issue.  I'll get back to it.

 

Walk me through the logic here.  Work with me.  Help me understand.

 

We have X hospital beds and Y ICU beds.  We can make them grow with temporary hospitals and magic ventilator tricks - but not infinitely (and staff quickly becomes limiting, even if you keep most of 'em healthy which we didn't.  NYC is currently running on 'relief staff' bussed in from Upstate.  Stay healthy, Upstate!)

 

Let's pick NYC, which kind of made a bit of a mess for itself by delaying shutdown.

 

The reason NYC shut down was not the death rate.  It was the exponential trajectory of cases showing up at hospitals seriously or critically ill.  It quickly became clear that the number of people who required hospitalization and critical care was growing exponentially, and that unchecked, it would be way more than 10X and 10Y or even 20X or 20Y.  And people would need hospital care who couldn't get it.  Doctors would have to make terrible, PTSD-like decisions about "who gets the ventilator?"

 

So we shut down to "flatten the curve" and slow the exponential growth.  We sent people home (without testing) who quite possibly were sick enough that they should have been hospitalized.  We increased hospital capacity by stacking patients down the hallways, building temporary hospitals, and adding beds where we could.  We added ICU capacity by splitting ventilators, using CPAPs and BiPAPs as vents, and obtaining more vents from emergency supplies and storage that wound up in the ERs and ordinary rooms.

 

And it worked.  The curve flattened.  We were able to treat the most critically ill.  Doctors didn't have to make those terrible decisions that were made in Northern Italy.  The case fatality rate is probably 3-10x higher than it should be because of ICU patients being cared for in ERs and ordinary rooms and leaving patients home until their disease was too advanced to treat, but we made it.

 

Still, 15,000 people died in NYC alone.  Many are still on ventilators and may yet die.

 

Now let's say it's all true that we now learn the real number of covid-19 infections is not the tested 330,117 infections in the NYC area.

Let's say it's not the 10x that some epidemiologists predict, so there are actually 3,301,170 infections in NYC (16-32% of 19M people)

Maybe it's 20% or 40% or even 60% more.  Maybe it's 200% - 6.6M people.

 

How does more overall covid-19 infected people and a lower true death rate change the fact that enough people (even with a shut down) got seriously ill that the hospitals were totally slammed and overwhelmed, that they were hydrating and sending people home who probably should have been admitted, and admitting only people who were in such critical condition that patients coding (heart stop) before they could be intubated became all too common?

 

Many cities which shut down earlier in the exponential growth of the epidemic are slammed, but still within capacity - Boston, St Louis, Atlanta.  But they were still on that exponential trajectory to overwhelm the healthcare system before they shut down.

 

I just don't understand the logic that says if there are actually more cases then we think, it means we didn't really have to shutdown or may not have to stay shutdown if we aren't successful at containing when we open back up.  If the same number of seriously and critically ill cases occur, why does it matter if they are 15% of the total cases or 1.5% of the total cases (because many more cases than originally thought)? 

 

Whatever the true death rate is found to be when the dust settles, there were enough cases to overwhelm the health care system. 

 

And unless we've actually achieved herd immunity (50% or 60% of the 19M NYC residents infected people or 9.5M - 11.4M people) if we open up freely without precautions, what will keep infections from surging again to the point where hospitals get overwhelmed again?

 

OK, now back to 0.38%.  The infection rate is not 447/115,000.  The infection rate would be 115,000 (on March 25) / 2.3 M greater Boston residents, which is 5% as of that date.

 

The Boston case count is currently 33,000; having ~250x more cases at the start (115,000/447) using a simple proportion [note: this is totally incorrect], would mean that at this point, all of Boston's 2.3M residents would actually now be infected something like 4x over, and immune.

 

I don't think we're that lucky.  A recent antibody survey on the street of one of the most heavily infected areas of Boston found only 30% immune.  Further, more representative antibody tests will be necessary to figure out what's going on, but having everyone (or even 50% of everyone) already infected and immune seeeeeems unlikely to me.

Shutting down and enacting strict social distancing protocols and protections is the ONLY reason we’ve been able to flatten the curve. Period. 
 

An alarming statistic made by Cuomo during one of his recent briefings is that we have 925,000 hospital beds in the US. Total. If we hadn’t enacted the mitigation measures, it would EASILY have been overwhelmed. That’s concerning going forward.