Jrb1979 Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, teef said: What’s too bad is that there will always be a crowd that feels this is just and over reaction. You can choose to see what’s happening around you and be part of the solution, or you can claim strict over reaction. One way is certainly easier than the other. Seems like you’ve chosen. Its one thing to stay at home and avoid crowds. That to me isn't over reacting. Its the people that are stockpiling items like it's the end of the world. What the Dr. in that post was getting at is he is scared for is those that go into a full on panic. I see it every day at work with those that have loaded up on toilet paper. Yes this virus is concerning but as the Dr. said, people need to learn the facts and avoid crowds and lay low. The media has made people panic and that really isn't helping anything. 1
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: Its one thing to stay at home and avoid crowds. That to me isn't over reacting. Its the people that are stockpiling items like it's the end of the world. What the Dr. in that post was getting at is he is scared for is those that go into a full on panic. I see it every day at work with those that have loaded up on toilet paper. Yes this virus is concerning but as the Dr. said, people need to learn the facts and avoid crowds and lay low. The media has made people panic and that really isn't helping anything. Oh I agree. I’ve already seen it at work. We’re on a strict lock down on how many masks we can order. We may have a big problem soon with gloves too. People are scared so there certainly is an over reaction. I just hope people don’t think that this is strictly an over reaction and not a serious problem. 1 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: https://talbotspy.org/letter-from-toronto-an-infectious-diseases-specialist-reflects-on-corvid-19/ After reading that post from that Dr. I agree with it. I will give you the short form of it. He basically says that while he is concerned for those that are at high risk but he isn't scared of this virus. As he states "What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others.others." He is also scared that we teaching our kids to panic, fear and be suspicious instead of being rational and open minded. Thank you for posting here. Although it was posted this week in your link, Dr Abdhu Sharkaway wrote it on March 5th. There is a fundamental contradiction in it. The physican expresses that "I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games…that could be kiboshed too. Can you even imagine?" but he also says "I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge." The paradox is at this point, experts acknowledge that we have gone beyond the point where we can contain Covid19 with limiting geographic spread, testing, and contact tracing. The disease is already here in the US and in Canada. Testing has not been sufficiently widespread: unless someone traveled from China, Iran, Italy etc or had contact with someone ill, until recently they could not be tested even with symptoms and negative test for flu. Small emergency rooms send people with pneumonia of unknown origin home, they aren't testing. Where more aggressive testing has been conducted as in Seattle, it reveals community spread. So we simply don't know at this point how widespread the disease is, or where it is. We can't know, because we haven't been testing widely enough. At this point, the only option remaining to protect elderly and in frail health or immunocompromised is to maintain capacity in our health care system for that. The only way to maintain capacity at this point is by pursuing mitigation: contain the disease with social distancing. And this means EVERYONE has to distance themselves. Shut down events where people may mix and mingle like weddings, family reunions, parades, yes even graduations and Olympics depending upon the situation at that time. Shut down colleges where students live jam-packed and share rooms and bathrooms. Tell people work from home. Cancel dances. Cancel Guinness World Record Smurf events. As I said above, Dr Abdhu Sharkaway wrote this March 5th. Italy locked down the entire country in a "desparation move" on March 9th. I wonder if his viewpoint would be different today, if he has spoken to some of his colleagues in Italy. If he has not, perhaps he should. 12 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: Its one thing to stay at home and avoid crowds. That to me isn't over reacting. Its the people that are stockpiling items like it's the end of the world. What the Dr. in that post was getting at is he is scared for is those that go into a full on panic. I see it every day at work with those that have loaded up on toilet paper. Yes this virus is concerning but as the Dr. said, people need to learn the facts and avoid crowds and lay low. The media has made people panic and that really isn't helping anything. If your point is just, people stop being stupid and hoarding, I agree. But I think in part people are panicking BECAUSE factual, matter-of-fact instructions about how to proceed are lacking. People saying "don't panic, life as usual" "it's just like flu" etc. in the face of reports out of Italy of overwhelmed hospitals and exhausted HCW, when Italy was about where we are a month ago, paradoxically induces more panic. 2
Wacka Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) This is for the laymen in this thread. The Coronavirus genome is made up of single stranded Ribonucleic acid (RNA) which in living organisms (plants and animals) is what the a gene (DNA) uses to relay info to the cellular apparatus tp produce proteins from amino acids. The coronavirus codes for the capsule proteins (what you see in the colorized electron micrographs of the virus.) It probably codes for a RNA polymerase which replicates the RNA (I'm not sure}. RNA polymerase is not as accurate in replicating RNA as DNA polymerase is in replicating DNA.thereby inducing mutations. One of these was probably what makes COVID-19 more virulent. Edited March 12, 2020 by Wacka 1
Jrb1979 Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Thank you for posting here. Although it was posted this week in your link, Dr Abdhu Sharkaway wrote it on March 5th. There is a fundamental contradiction in it. The physican expresses that "I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games…that could be kiboshed too. Can you even imagine?" but he also says "I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge." The paradox is at this point, experts acknowledge that we have gone beyond the point where we can contain Covid19 with limiting geographic spread, testing, and contact tracing. The disease is already here in the US and in Canada. Testing has not been sufficiently widespread: unless someone traveled from China, Iran, Italy etc or had contact with someone ill, until recently they could not be tested even with symptoms and negative test for flu. Small emergency rooms send people with pneumonia of unknown origin home, they aren't testing. Where more aggressive testing has been conducted as in Seattle, it reveals community spread. So we simply don't know at this point how widespread the disease is, or where it is. We can't know, because we haven't been testing widely enough. At this point, the only option remaining to protect elderly and in frail health or immunocompromised is to maintain capacity in our health care system for that. The only way to maintain capacity at this point is by pursuing mitigation: contain the disease with social distancing. And this means EVERYONE has to distance themselves. Shut down events where people may mix and mingle like weddings, family reunions, parades, yes even graduations and Olympics depending upon the situation at that time. Shut down colleges where students live jam-packed and share rooms and bathrooms. Tell people work from home. Cancel dances. Cancel Guinness World Record Smurf events. As I said above, Dr Abdhu Sharkaway wrote this March 5th. Italy locked down the entire country in a "desparation move" on March 9th. I wonder if his viewpoint would be different today, if he has spoken to some of his colleagues in Italy. If he has not, perhaps he should. If your point is just, people stop being stupid and hoarding, I agree. But I think in part people are panicking BECAUSE factual, matter-of-fact instructions about how to proceed are lacking. People saying "don't panic, life as usual" "it's just like flu" etc. in the face of reports out of Italy of overwhelmed hospitals and exhausted HCW, when Italy was about where we are a month ago, paradoxically induces more panic. I agree with a lot of what you posted. The Media hasn't helped with any of this either. They want people to be fearful of this. What I wonder is if the overcrowding of the hospitals is partially to blame on people going to the hospital over something small like sniffles. What would help slowing down the spread is if you feel sick at all stay home especially if you are considered to be in the high risk category. Of course the Media would never tell you that, cause fear sells.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Wacka said: This is for the laymen in this thread. The Coronavirus genome is made up of single stranded Ribonucleic acid (RNA) which in living organisms (plants and animals) is what the a gene (DNA) uses to relay info to the cellular apparatus tp produce proteins from amino acids. The coronavirus codes for the capsule proteins (what you see in the colorized electron micrographs of the virus.) It probably codes for a RNA polymerase which replicates the RNA (I'm not sure}. RNA polymerase is not as accurate in replicating RNA as DNA polymerase is in replicating DNA.thereby inducing mutations. One of these was probably what makes COVID-19 more virulent. Thanks. I clarify that in this case, the RNA genome contains the genes and no DNA is involved; I think what you mean is that the Coronavirus RNA genome serves the same purpose as the DNA genome of an animal or plant serves (it wasn't clear to me just reading what you wrote). The coronavirus genome has a tail of adenosines (poly A tail) that allows it to co-opts the host cell's own ribosomes (protein transcription machinery or "cellular apparatus to produce proteins" in Wacka's post) into making a long string of polyproteins, including a viral protease that chops them up into individual proteins. In addition to the capsid (capsule) proteins, yes, it codes for an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase that replicates the viral genome and in fact a whole multiprotein replicase transcriptase package. And thank you for explaining more precisely what I meant by saying "RNA viruses are slobs", ie "RNA polymerase is not as accurate in replicating RNA as DNA polymerase is, thereby inducing mutations". Because like HIV, there is a viral protease necessary to cut up the long polyprotein and allow the Coronavirus to replicate and assemble, some of the drugs tried in China include HIV protease inhibitors such as lopinavir and ritonavir (sold together under brand name Kaletra). I had read there was some success with that approach but then later that they had stepped away from it, so I don't know. But it's a logical pharmaceutical point of attack.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 57 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: I agree with a lot of what you posted. The Media hasn't helped with any of this either. They want people to be fearful of this. What I wonder is if the overcrowding of the hospitals is partially to blame on people going to the hospital over something small like sniffles. What would help slowing down the spread is if you feel sick at all stay home especially if you are considered to be in the high risk category. Of course the Media would never tell you that, cause fear sells. No, not at all to blame on people going to the hospital over something small, when patients can go home, the hospitals send them home, sometimes with instructions on what to watch for and return. All elective surgeries and procedures are deferred. If you need gall bladder surgery you wait. It's just plain and simple too many very sick people who require hospitalization in Italy as it was in Wuhan. It won't help people in the high risk category to stay home - perhaps yes if they feel a sniffle - but if they have high fever and difficulty breathing, they need to go to hospital ASAP and hopefully get oxygen, treatment for any secondary bacterial infections, diuresis, and perhaps some experimental treatment protocol with one of the drugs under clinical trial, before they become desperately ill and require intubation or ECMC (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, oxygenation by a machine outside the body). The reason is because lacking oxygen sets off a cascade of events - the patient's other organs start to shut down - so if possible one wishes to stave this off. For a not high risk person who has fever, cough, but not particularly struggling to breathe they can stay home, unless they start to struggle with breathing. I will make the admission that I have a philosophy to not watch TV news so I may under-appreciate the poor quality of news reporting and any panic-inducing properties it may have. All I know is that my 87 year old mother, who is quite sharp mentally and watches news compulsively all day long, seemed completely under-informed and lacking in panic, even though she is in the very highest risk group there is (age, plus pre-existing conditions). 2
Augie Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Wacka said: This is for the laymen in this thread. The Coronavirus genome is made up of single stranded Ribonucleic acid (RNA) which in living organisms (plants and animals) is what the a gene (DNA) uses to relay info to the cellular apparatus tp produce proteins from amino acids. The coronavirus codes for the capsule proteins (what you see in the colorized electron micrographs of the virus.) It probably codes for a RNA polymerase which replicates the RNA (I'm not sure}. RNA polymerase is not as accurate in replicating RNA as DNA polymerase is in replicating DNA.thereby inducing mutations. One of these was probably what makes COVID-19 more virulent. Umm, what is below laymen? Are you calling me an idiot??? I thought that was trademarked! 1 1
Jrb1979 Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I'm a little more more concerned now as Ontario has decided to close all public schools for 2 weeks after March Break happens next week. Who knows what else will be closed next. We might see a lot of retail cut back hours til this starts to settle down. My hope is this virus is like the cold and once the warmer weather comes the virus slows down a lot.
Bubba Gump Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 @Hapless Bills Fan I just heard on the news that 80% of infected people don't realize they even have virus and recover on their own? If 80% of people don't even realize they have it, isn't that a recipe for disaster? Hopefully I just heard that wrong. Do you have any insight on this? Thanks in advance.
KD in CA Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said: Its one thing to stay at home and avoid crowds. That to me isn't over reacting. Its the people that are stockpiling items like it's the end of the world. What the Dr. in that post was getting at is he is scared for is those that go into a full on panic. I see it every day at work with those that have loaded up on toilet paper. Yes this virus is concerning but as the Dr. said, people need to learn the facts and avoid crowds and lay low. The media has made people panic and that really isn't helping anything. I stopped at Whole Foods the other day to buy beer and toe nail clippers. Told the cashier I was now set for the virus apocalypse -- gave her a good chuckle. 1 hour ago, teef said: You have got to be ***** kidding me. I wonder if they had a 'Hottest Smurfette' contest. 1
Augie Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said: @Hapless Bills Fan I just heard on the news that 80% of infected people don't realize they even have virus and recover on their own? If 80% of people don't even realize they have it, isn't that a recipe for disaster? Hopefully I just heard that wrong. Do you have any insight on this? Thanks in advance. I’m obviously curious to hear what Hapless has to say, but this is precisely the reason I will grocery shop for my mother tomorrow and just drop it all off for her. Not taking her out to lunch, then shopping, not stopping in for a visit. What if I’m exposed and have no symptoms (yet). At her age I’d rather she eat at home, sit around and read or binge on Netflix. I know little about this other than I don’t want to take unnecessary chances. 2 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said: @Hapless Bills Fan I just heard on the news that 80% of infected people don't realize they even have virus and recover on their own? If 80% of people don't even realize they have it, isn't that a recipe for disaster? Hopefully I just heard that wrong. Do you have any insight on this? Thanks in advance. OK, I think either you misheard, or the news mis-spoke. The figure, based on the largest experience to date (China) is that 80% of infected people have mild to moderate symptoms. When testing ramped up, it was initially thought that there were a lot of asymptomatic cases, but it turned out that most of those tested positive were just asymptomatic at the time of the test and did develop symptoms later. Current experience is that only a very low percentage are truly asymptomatic (maybe 1%, latest I heard). Here's some data from the WHO China joint mission report on their experience with Covid19:Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratoryfrequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission. Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death. As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%). The good news is if you have a runny nose or are sneezing your head off, you probably have a cold. Very uncommon symptom for Covid19. The bad news is that the most common symptoms are fever and a dry cough, which are common symptoms of a number of viral illnesses. It is kind of a recipe for disaster because a lot of people with non-specific fever and dry cough don't realize they are sick, so they go on about their lives. People may also be infectious 1-2 days before symptoms appear (or at least progress to the point where people pay heed) Myalgia means muscle aches. Arthralgia means joint aches. Hemoptysis means coughing up blood. 21 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: I'm a little more more concerned now as Ontario has decided to close all public schools for 2 weeks after March Break happens next week. Who knows what else will be closed next. We might see a lot of retail cut back hours til this starts to settle down. My hope is this virus is like the cold and once the warmer weather comes the virus slows down a lot. We can all pray for that to be the outcome.
Bubba Gump Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: OK, I think either you misheard, or the news mis-spoke. The figure, based on the largest experience to date (China) is that 80% of infected people have mild to moderate symptoms. When testing ramped up, it was initially thought that there were a lot of asymptomatic cases, but it turned out that most of those tested positive were just asymptomatic at the time of the test and did develop symptoms later. Here's some data from the WHO China joint mission report on their experience with Covid19:Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratoryfrequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission. Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death. As of 20 February 2020 and 12 based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%). The good news is if you have a runny nose or are sneezing your head off, you probably have a cold. Very uncommon symptom for Covid19. The bad news is that the most common symptoms are fever and a dry cough, which are common symptoms of a number of viral illnesses. It is kind of a recipe for disaster because a lot of people with non-specific fever and dry cough don't realize they are sick, so they go on about their lives. People may also be infectious 1-2 days before symptoms appear (or at least progress to the point where people pay heed) Lots of info there, thanks. I myself have a chronic cough due to a subglottic stenosis. Had a tracheal resection eight years ago. Just gotta hope I don't come down with a fever anytime soon.
Foxx Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 @Hapless Bills Fan coming up from the depths of PPP here, hope you don't mind my intrusion into your nice thread. have read a good portion of it and glanced through an equally good portion as well. i didn't see my query addressed and may have missed it if it is indeed contained within these pages. that said, here is my question from the outer limits (apologies if i am out of line (just smack me down if i am)) ... i have seen claims out and about in the wilds that this, COVID-19 virus is possibly a bio-weapon. i have also seen it refuted as being impossible to spice HIV genes into this virus. i would appreciate any input you could lend to my collation of data points with regard here. if this has previously been addressed, i do apologize and will look again if that is what needs to be. TYIA
CountDorkula Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: I'm a little more more concerned now as Ontario has decided to close all public schools for 2 weeks after March Break happens next week. Who knows what else will be closed next. We might see a lot of retail cut back hours til this starts to settle down. My hope is this virus is like the cold and once the warmer weather comes the virus slows down a lot. Wouldn't people getting sick in a climate like Australia refute these claims? People in Florida where it is 80+ degrees are still getting the disease. That would mean the entire northern half of the US is screwed, because it doesn't get much warmer than Florida, no? Edited March 12, 2020 by CountDorkula
DrDawkinstein Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Foxx said: @Hapless Bills Fan coming up from the depths of PPP here, hope you don't mind my intrusion into your nice thread. have read a good portion of it and glanced through an equally good portion as well. i didn't see my query addressed and may have missed it if it is indeed contained within these pages. that said, here is my question from the outer limits (apologies if i am out of line (just smack me down if i am)) ... i have seen claims out and about in the wilds that this, COVID-19 virus is possibly a bio-weapon. i have also seen it refuted as being impossible to spice HIV genes into this virus. i would appreciate any input you could lend to my collation of data points with regard here. if this has previously been addressed, i do apologize and will look again if that is what needs to be. TYIA No, not likely. That "theory" is only being pushed by the disinformation sector. Please keep that type of stuff to PPP. Whether it's the US saying it about China, or Russia/Mid East saying it about the US, it's a disinformation technique. More info here: https://rusi.org/commentary/infectious-lies Edited March 12, 2020 by DrDawkinstein 1
Wacka Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 41 minutes ago, Augie said: Umm, what is below laymen? Are you calling me an idiot??? I thought that was trademarked! Thanks or the smiley. At first reading I missed it and thought you were dissing me but on the second pass, ?. I studied DNA replication for my graduate work. Used bakers yeast because it was easy to grow and a lot of work was being done on it. It was the first eukaryote (nucleated organism) that had its genome sequenced. Using yeast i developed a a method to map replication origins (where DNA starts replicating- they are very defined in yeast). Bacteria have no nucleus. Then studied herpes DNA replication proteins and possible gene therapy vectors as a postdoc. 1
DrDawkinstein Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) First death in Georgia... https://www.wtoc.com/2020/03/12/first-death-reported-ga-related-covid-/ Edited March 12, 2020 by DrDawkinstein
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, KD in CA said: I stopped at Whole Foods the other day to buy beer and toe nail clippers. Told the cashier I was now set for the virus apocalypse -- gave her a good chuckle. My wife just got back from bjs...there was literally no meat left. No chicken, no beef. Only corned beef. She bought two.
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