Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[BillsFan4]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up.  People need exercise and sunshine.

Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion

I’m not against opening the beaches to exercise. It just looked a bit crowded to me and there appear to be groups of people standing together. But with it being the first day back open I can understand why people were excited to go walk on the beach. Hopefully the crowds/social distancing will improve in the coming days.

[Jrb1979]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I’m not against opening the beaches to exercise. It just looked a bit crowded to me and there appear to be groups of people standing together. But with it being the first day back open I can understand why people were excited to go walk on the beach. Hopefully the crowds/social distancing will improve in the coming days.

I hope so but have my doubts. Its why here in Canada they are taking things very slow. 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-animal-shelter-palm-beach-20200415-tygsxxpfdvbqpgdxrazb2qnvuq-story.html

‘Coronavirus adoptions empty animal shelter for first time’

 

Quote

It’s a fleeting moment, but a joyful one: The Palm Beach County animal shelter’s main dog kennel is empty.

The kennel, one of three, is typically full with 48 dogs, which sometimes have to double up in their runs when space is at a premium. But thanks to a wave of adoptions and foster volunteers due to coronavirus, Kennel No. 2 is empty.

 

Pretty cool. 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/connect/togetherathome/?utm_source=social_platform&utm_medium=platformglobal_partner&utm_campaign=oneworld_launch&utm_content=signup

One World: Together At Home.  April 18

A global broadcast & digital special to support frontline healthcare workers and the WHO.

 

Quote

APPEARANCES BY:

ADAM LAMBERT • ALICIA KEYS • AMY POEHLER • ANDRA DAY • ANDREA BOCELLI • ANGÈLE • ANITTA • ANNIE LENNOX • AWKWAFINA• BECKY G • BECKY LYNCH • BEN PLATT • BILL AND MELINDA GATES • BILLIE EILISH • BILLIE JOE ARMSTRONG • BILLY RAY CYRUS • BLACK COFFEE • BRAUN STROWMAN • BRIDGET MOYNAHAN• CAMILA CABELLO • CASSPER NYOVEST • CELINE DION • CHARLIE PUTH • CHRIS MARTIN • CHRISTINE AND THE QUEENS • COMMON • CONNIE BRITTON • DANAI GURIRA • DAVID & VICTORIA BECKHAM • DELTA GOODREM • DON CHEADLE • EASON CHAN • EDDIE VEDDER • ELLEN DEGENERES • ELLIE GOULDING • ELTON JOHN • ERIN RICHARDS • FINNEAS • HEIDI KLUM • HENRY GOLDING • HOZIER • HUSSAIN AL JASSMI • IDRIS AND SABRINA ELBA • J BALVIN • JACK BLACK • JACK JOHNSON• JACKY CHEUNG • JAMEELA JAMIL • JASON SEGEL • JENNIFER HUDSON • JENNIFER LOPEZ • JESS GLYNNE • JESSIE J • JESSIE REYEZ • JIMMY FALLON • JIMMY KIMMEL • JOHN LEGEND • JUANES • KACEY MUSGRAVES • KEITH URBAN • KERRY WASHINGTON• KESHA • THE KILLERS • LADY ANTEBELLUM • LADY GAGA • LANG LANG • LESLIE ODOM JR. • LEWIS HAMILTON • LIAM PAYNE • LILI REINHART • LILLY SINGH • LINDSEY VONN • LISA MISHRA • LIZZO• LL COOL J • LOLA LENNOX • LUIS FONSI • LUPITA NYONG’O • MALUMA • MAREN MORRIS • MATT BOMER • MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY • MEGAN RAPINOE • MICHAEL BUBLÉ • MILKY CHANCE • NATTI NATASHA • NIALL HORAN • NOMZAMO MBATHA • OPRAH WINFREY • PAUL MCCARTNEY • PHARRELL WILLIAMS • PIERCE BROSNAN • P.K. SUBBAN • PICTURE THIS • PRIYANKA CHOPRA JONAS • RITA ORA • THE ROLLING STONES • SAM HEUGHAN • SAM SMITH • SAMUEL L JACKSON • SARAH JESSICA PARKER • SASHA BANKS • SEBASTIÁN YATRA • SHAH RUKH KHAN • SHAWN MENDES • SHERYL CROW • SHO MADJOZI • SOFI TUKKER • STEPHEN COLBERT • STEVIE WONDER • SUPERM • TAYLOR SWIFT • TIM GUNN • USHER • VISHAL MISHRA • XAVIER WOODS • ZUCCHERO

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....FYI and most probably know that Wegmans is now requiring mask or facial covering to enter stores....my son encountered the same thing at Home Depot today.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/connect/togetherathome/?utm_source=social_platform&utm_medium=platformglobal_partner&utm_campaign=oneworld_launch&utm_content=signup

One World: Together At Home.  April 18

A global broadcast & digital special to support frontline healthcare workers and the WHO.

 

Other than "today" (Sat) do you know when this is?

[coloradobillsfan]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Other than "today" (Sat) do you know when this is?

 

According to this web site, which is a very handy calendar to keep track of upcoming live and archived music streams, it is 8:00 PM EDT / 5:00 PM PDT

 

https://www.jambase.com/livestreams

[plenzmd1]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up.  People need exercise and sunshine.

Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion

Very strange the different  interpretaions of "lockdown". Swear here in Richmond, only thing really closed down is office buildings, big box clothing store like Kohls, and restaurants and bars. State and local parks open, golf courses open, small retail all open, Walmart, Home Depot and the like all open. Was out yesetrday, when on the main commercial surface streets no differnce in traffic than any other day. And  yet the perception is we are in in much tighter lock down than Texas.. even when they "open " next week, Virginia in "lockdown" will still be more "open" than Texas

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Very strange the different  interpretaions of "lockdown". Swear here in Richmond, only thing really closed down is office buildings, big box clothing store like Kohls, and restaurants and bars. State and local parks open, golf courses open, small retail all open, Walmart, Home Depot and the like all open. Was out yesetrday, when on the main commercial surface streets no differnce in traffic than any other day. And  yet the perception is we are in in much tighter lock down than Texas.. even when they "open " next week, Virginia in "lockdown" will still be more "open" than Texas

 

Even stranger situation in Missouri.  Most of the more heavily populated areas (St Louis, Kansas City) locked down way before the governor finally locked the state - but when he did lock the state, he left it to individual counties and municipalities to decide what that meant!  So we have heavily populated, heavily locked-down counties next to counties that are relatively open.  Then there are several rural counties that are turning back all non-residents, even though popular State Parks located within those counties are still open.....

 

I think when we get through this and look back, one of the things that will be most heavily second-guessed is the lack of consistent guidelines and the impact this may have had on extending the epidemic.

But yeah, I was noticing that while "oh Noes, Texas reopening!" the stuff they are talking about re-opening first will largely put them on a level with many other states.

[BillsFan4]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Other than "today" (Sat) do you know when this is?

When I just went on that site I saw something on the top saying “streaming live at 2pm EST” 

 

But it won’t be on TV until 8pm (EST) tonight.

 

It looks like there will be a whole bunch of channels carrying it.

 

channel 2, 4, 7, 34 (MSNBC) 35 (NBCS), 59 (BET), 60 (MTV), 62 (Paramount)

Edited April 18, 2020 by BillsFan4

[snafu]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Very strange the different  interpretaions of "lockdown". Swear here in Richmond, only thing really closed down is office buildings, big box clothing store like Kohls, and restaurants and bars. State and local parks open, golf courses open, small retail all open, Walmart, Home Depot and the like all open. Was out yesetrday, when on the main commercial surface streets no differnce in traffic than any other day. And  yet the perception is we are in in much tighter lock down than Texas.. even when they "open " next week, Virginia in "lockdown" will still be more "open" than Texas

 

Wow, that’s really pretty loose compared to Brooklyn and Long Island. 

Ghost towns. Barely anything is open, including a good portion of restaurants that shut down.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, snafu said:

Wow, that’s really pretty loose compared to Brooklyn and Long Island. 

Ghost towns. Barely anything is open, including a good portion of restaurants that shut down.

 

A lot of our restaurants are shut down.  Those that are open are offering contact-free curbside pickup (I would say, 1/3).  A number are opening back up.  The local restaurant association got a "big chill" scare when one popular high-end restaurant had 8 of their kitchen workers all test positive and a couple were seriously ill.  They slammed shut and sent everyone home of their own volition.  Now that it's 3-4 weeks later, a number are opening back up, I guess figuring if any of them were sick, they got over it by now so it won't spread.  You call, they put together your order, you call and them you're there, they bring it out and set it in your trunk or on a table for you to pick up after they go inside.  Venmo etc are booming.

 

Walmart, Target and the "big box" home improvement stores like Home Depot and Lowes are open.  There was talk about them closing off everything except food and repair items, but I don't think they did.  I can still buy seeds and plants (unlike Michigan, which I do think went too far).  Some are limiting the number of people inside and have cordoned off lines and marked 6 feet.  Sometimes people pay attention, sometimes they don't.  Sometimes a store employee asks people to space out, sometimes they don't.

[Jrb1979]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A lot of our restaurants are shut down.  Those that are open are offering contact-free curbside pickup (I would say, 1/3).  A number are opening back up.  The local restaurant association got a "big chill" scare when one popular high-end restaurant had 8 of their kitchen workers all test positive and a couple were seriously ill.  They slammed shut and sent everyone home of their own volition.  Now that it's 3-4 weeks later, a number are opening back up, I guess figuring if any of them were sick, they got over it by now so it won't spread.  You call, they put together your order, you call and them you're there, they bring it out and set it in your trunk or on a table for you to pick up after they go inside.  Venmo etc are booming.

 

Walmart, Target and the "big box" home improvement stores like Home Depot and Lowes are open.  There was talk about them closing off everything except food and repair items, but I don't think they did.  I can still buy seeds and plants (unlike Michigan, which I do think went too far).  Some are limiting the number of people inside and have cordoned off lines and marked 6 feet.  Sometimes people pay attention, sometimes they don't.  Sometimes a store employee asks people to space out, sometimes they don't.

That's the measures we have in place here in Ontario. From the sounds of things here it's going to be in place til summer sometime. Our government won't return to normal til there is a way to treat this. 

[snafu]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A lot of our restaurants are shut down.  Those that are open are offering contact-free curbside pickup (I would say, 1/3).  A number are opening back up.  The local restaurant association got a "big chill" scare when one popular high-end restaurant had 8 of their kitchen workers all test positive and a couple were seriously ill.  They slammed shut and sent everyone home of their own volition.  Now that it's 3-4 weeks later, a number are opening back up, I guess figuring if any of them were sick, they got over it by now so it won't spread.  You call, they put together your order, you call and them you're there, they bring it out and set it in your trunk or on a table for you to pick up after they go inside.  Venmo etc are booming.

 

Walmart, Target and the "big box" home improvement stores like Home Depot and Lowes are open.  There was talk about them closing off everything except food and repair items, but I don't think they did.  I can still buy seeds and plants (unlike Michigan, which I do think went too far).  Some are limiting the number of people inside and have cordoned off lines and marked 6 feet.  Sometimes people pay attention, sometimes they don't.  Sometimes a store employee asks people to space out, sometimes they don't.

 

Target and Walmart are open, but I haven’t been in them to see to what extent they are.

I’ve been to Home Depot, I even bought seeds a couple weeks ago. It is open, but they’re limiting access to 100 shoppers at a time and they’re only open until 6PM.  I’ve seen huge lines outside Home Depot.  I’m not standing in line for the stupid stuff I need. I can putz around my house just fine without trips to the big box store. I’ve moved everything in my garage at least three times now. Raked out the same bed at least 4 times. If I really need more tomato plants, I can use the seeds from the tomatoes in my fridge — the key it to roll the seeds between your thumb and finger to get the coating off. Then plant ‘em.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 3/18/2020 at 1:35 PM, BillsFanNC said:

Early on I had read that the problem was with false positives in patient samples which would indicate a problem with primer design that might result in a test that lacked adequate specificity as you suggest.  Later on I had read this article:

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/

 

As someone who has done a fair amount of PCR that suggested to me that the kits suffered from a negative control that had been contaminated with target sequence amplicons, something that can happen quite easily if routine PCR guidelines aren't followed.  Without seeing the data we can only guess what the true failure was, but it was indeed a major failure by the CDC no matter how you slice it.

 

@BillsFanNC, just thought you deserved a "looks like your diagnosis was correct" attaboy here:

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/contamination-cdc-lab-likely-cause-184923705.html
 

"In mid-February, the CDC was uncertain whether its test was malfunctioning due to a design issue or a manufacturing issue, two FDA officials said.

That was concerning to the FDA. On February 22, an FDA official traveled to Atlanta and spent the following days visiting CDC labs to try to sort out the testing problem.

According to an administration official, the FDA determined contamination was most likely occurring during the manufacturing process and that the CDC had appeared to have violated its own manufacturing protocols.  (.....)

Two FDA officials and an administration official said there did not appear to be an issue with the design of the CDC test. The problem was the manufacturing process."

 

 

 

 

 

[Sundancer]

We have several small studies (Santa Clara, Boston General man-on-the-street, Boston homeless shelter) showing tons of asymptomatic people using antibody tests. 

 

So I have this question for the more epidemiological among you. 

 

Would there be any way to explain the data that *perhaps* 25% of the population already has developed antibodies for this (thinking about Boston and SantaClara showing this may already be out there)...but there's only been one massive outbreak of deaths and hospitalizations (NYC)? If it was already 25% prevalent across most of the country, why would NYC be the only area getting hammered so hard? Or said another way, if 25% of the population had this in LA, Chicago, and Philly, shouldn't they be seeing proportionately awful outbreaks similar to what has happened in NYC?

 

Also, and related thought experiment, is there precedent for a virus leaping from a place like China in late 2019 to infect 25%+ of people in the US in 4 months?

 

My numbers instincts say #1 makes no sense and there may be a testing or some other issue...and number 2, I just don't have background in to answer but it would seem mind-boggling for a virus to spread that quickly.  

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, Sundancer said:

We have several small studies (Santa Clara, Boston General man-on-the-street, Boston homeless shelter) showing tons of asymptomatic people using antibody tests. 

 

So I have this question for the more epidemiological among you. 

 

Would there be any way to explain the data that *perhaps* 25% of the population already has developed antibodies for this (thinking about Boston and SantaClara showing this may already be out there)...but there's only been one massive outbreak of deaths and hospitalizations (NYC)? If it was already 25% prevalent across most of the country, why would NYC be the only area getting hammered so hard? Or said another way, if 25% of the population had this in LA, Chicago, and Philly, shouldn't they be seeing proportionately awful outbreaks similar to what has happened in NYC?

 

Also, and related thought experiment, is there precedent for a virus leaping from a place like China in late 2019 to infect 25%+ of people in the US in 4 months?

 

My numbers instincts say #1 makes no sense and there may be a testing or some other issue...and number 2, I just don't have background in to answer but it would seem mind-boggling for a virus to spread that quickly.  

 

 

Sundancer, to start off, I think you realize this but you're kind of merging two things 2x:

diagnosed disease or antibody prevalence

# or percent of asymptomatic infections

 

Santa Clara, which was a study designed to be extrapolated to a population (sampling representative M/F, age groups etc) found 2.5%-4.2% antibody prevalence.

That doesn't show that 25% of the population has antibodies - not at all.  To the contrary, it says <5%.

 

There's the Boston homeless shelter which found 36% of the residents infected.  That can't be generalized to population prevalence of infection because conditions in the homeless shelters (I'm aware of) would favor spread of respiratory ailments - crowded rows of bunks or cots with minimal spacing.  What's more remarkable to me is the claim "not a single one had any symptoms" of covid-19.  No fever, dry cough, sore throat, difficulty breathing - let's just say that seems an extraordinarily healthy (and thermometer equipped) mid-April population of homeless.  But even guessing maybe half had *some* covid-19 symptoms or will develop symptoms, it's certainly support for at least 18-20% asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections, maybe as high as 36% if the news article is correct.

The Chelsea study was NOT the "Boston General man-on-the-street".  It was specific to one poor Boston neighborhood, Chelsea, which has a very high proportion of immigrants,  crowded conditions, and poor health care.  Chelsea is a known outbreak area - it's currently ~NYC in infection rate, 190/10,000 people (I think NY is 160/10,000 currently?).  The point of the random sample wasn't to extrapolate to the entire population of Boston (the samples weren't collected for that).  It's interesting - I wonder if NYC will prove similar?  The biggest point to me is how many of them reported themselves as asymptomatic - half said they had 1 or more symptoms in the past 4 weeks, so again 16% asymptomatic.

Bottom line, absent evidence, I don't think we can conclude anything close to 25% prevalence across the country.  I think you're completely correct, if it were that prevalent, we'd be seeing other communities get hammered hard, the way NYC is and the way Chelsea, MA is.  I'm betting there are similar Chelsea-like hotspots in other cities - there's a zipcode in St Louis that has the most cases and the most fatalities.

 

Overall the epidemiologists are saying 2-5% prevalence.  The Santa Clara study supports that.

We'll know more soon enough.  U of Washington says they can screen 4,000 samples a day for antibodies using the new Abbott test starting next week, and think they can ramp up to 14,000 shortly.  Their head of Virology is very complimentary about the test, which is reported to have a 99.6% specificity.  That's important - it means we'd get a 90+% chance of correct result even if only 5% of us have been infected vs the 50/50 chance of a 95% specific test.

Edit: Cuomo saying NYS initiating a 3,000 person antibody study

 

I'd like to see them scale up towards what Washington is saying (14,000/day) because actually, 3000 is not a great sample size for either 83M OR 20M.  You'd ideally like to get closer to 1% sample size or at least 0.1%.

 

Also would like to know what test NYS will be using - anyone?

[Warcodered]

Oregon ain't ***** around.

 

[Sundancer]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Overall the epidemiologists are saying 2-5% prevalence.  The Santa Clara study supports that.

We'll know more soon enough.  U of Washington says they can screen 4,000 samples a day for antibodies using the new Abbott test starting next week, and think they can ramp up to 14,000 shortly.  Their head of Virology is very complimentary about the test, which is reported to have a 99.6% specificity.  That's important - it means we'd get a 90+% chance of correct result even if only 5% of us have been infected vs the 50/50 chance of a 95% specific test.
 

 

 

OK thank you, this makes good sense. Given the availability of these antibody tests now, it seems we will shortly have a lot more data, and a lot more data about "man on the street" prevalence and also how symptomatic this is. But these glimpses seem to show good and bad news: The bad is that the disease can be asymptomatic for lots of people, maybe way more than we know (and if it's transmissible while asymptomatic like we think it is, that's bad), and the good being that it may be asymptomatic and have less complications/fatalities than we thought. Neither is an argument for changing current distancing policy since we've already seen how this overwhelms healthcare systems. 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Sundancer