Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Author Posted April 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, Sundancer said: You asked about which states are ready. I would refer to the RPI map. The darker blue states may be either ready or close to it. I believe this is a map of deaths. Since deaths represent a tiny fraction of cases, and since community spread may be driven by asymptomatic cases, I respectfully submit that's not the parameter to monitor. There needs to be enough testing (<5% positive, say) and there needs to be a decline in cases. Otherwise you're looking at the tip of the tail, and trying to diagnose what's happening to the dog. The position of the tail does have some bearing on what's going on with the dog, sure, but it's a very very incomplete picture. So is looking at statewide data. It hides what's happening in different areas. 34 minutes ago, Sundancer said: The US I believe is currently in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are. Again, I don't think it's too useful to look US data overall. Too big a picture, blurs what's happening. But let's do it and let's look at deaths. Deaths in Spain and Italy are on the "double every 3-4 weeks" trajectory. US is still on the "doubling every 8 days" trajectory. To look at a different way, here is a graph of rates from the same source. Italy and Spain are flattened, near Iran and S. Korea. The US, Germany, and France rates are trending down, but no, they are not in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are (the deaths doubling every 3-4 weeks), not yet. (and that doubling every month, that ain't quite level) States: Missouri deaths still doubling every 7 days. Kansas, 8 days. Iowa, 7 days. Arkansas, 9 days. Texas, 7 days. Nevada, 8 days. Colorado, 10 days. Arizona, Florida 9 days. I don't think any of those states are 2 weeks away, and I think if the details of what's occurring within each state are looked at, we see areas in each state that are further away. The model that has the favorable deaths is based upon current social distancing restrictions remaining in place until the end of May. Not 2 weeks. Not the beginning of May. The end of May. 1
BillsFan4 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) https://www.scribd.com/document/456756506/Trump-releases-Opening-Up-America-Again-guidelines Its nice to see some federal guidelines, but they’ve left me with a lot of questions. What I don’t understand about these guidelines is that they made it sound like a lot of this stuff is already in place when they said some states are ready to open up “literally tomorrow”. I am not aware of a single state that has been able to test everyone that has symptoms (maybe I just missed it?). I’m not aware of a single state that has a contact tracing program, or temperature screening at workplaces (etc). I don’t know of any state with ample stockpiles of PPE (but I’m not sure on that). And if no state is even able to test everyone with covid symptoms, let alone doing widespread testing of potentially asymptomatic people, how can they even be sure that their case numbers are truly trending down? especially if up to 20% of people with COVID19 are asymptomatic. I just don't see how states can accomplish some of the stuff they’re being asked to do, and I don’t see how it’s reasonable to assume they can ramp these programs up even further when they’re already failing at it. Some State governors are already saying that they are capped out on their testing ability without help from the federal government. How can you just assume that states can scale up without federal help? Same with the PPE and other equipment. States have been trying for weeks now to fill their PPE needs without success. How can states put in a legit contact tracing program? Seems like something that would have to be at the national level, with all the interstate travel. What do they do if/when a COVID19 patient they’re tracing crosses state lines? Especially if the bordering state doesn’t have a contact tracing program? How do you handle a state that’s in phase one bordered by a state still in early stages? Also, I was surprised to see some of the businesses allowed to reopen in phase one: Quote phase one guidelines for specific types of employers: -Large venues (sit down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols. -elective surgeries can resume on outpatient basis -gyms can open if they adhere to physical distancing and sanitation protocols What do those strict protocols look like? How will they be enforced? How is it even possible to achieve strict social distancing in some of these places? Edited April 17, 2020 by BillsFan4
CountDorkula Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I believe this is a map of deaths. Since deaths represent a tiny fraction of cases, and since community spread may be driven by asymptomatic cases, I respectfully submit that's not the parameter to monitor. There needs to be enough testing (<5% positive, say) and there needs to be a decline in cases. Otherwise you're looking at the tip of the tail, and trying to diagnose what's happening to the dog. The position of the tail does have some bearing on what's going on with the dog, sure, but it's a very very incomplete picture. So is looking at statewide data. It hides what's happening in different areas. Again, I don't think it's too useful to look US data overall. Too big a picture, blurs what's happening. But let's do it and let's look at deaths. Deaths in Spain and Italy are on the "double every 3-4 weeks" trajectory. US is still on the "doubling every 8 days" trajectory. To look at a different way, here is a graph of rates from the same source. Italy and Spain are flattened, near Iran and S. Korea. The US, Germany, and France rates are trending down, but no, they are not in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are (the deaths doubling every 3-4 weeks), not yet. (and that doubling every month, that ain't quite level) States: Missouri deaths still doubling every 7 days. Kansas, 8 days. Iowa, 7 days. Arkansas, 9 days. Texas, 7 days. Nevada, 8 days. Colorado, 10 days. Arizona, Florida 9 days. I don't think any of those states are 2 weeks away, and I think if the details of what's occurring within each state are looked at, we see areas in each state that are further away. The model that has the favorable deaths is based upon current social distancing restrictions remaining in place until the end of May. Not 2 weeks. Not the beginning of May. The end of May. Maybe yopu can help me out, but the whole number of deaths thing I dont know what to beleive anymore. i've seen stuff floating around that they are adding thousands to the death count even though they never tested positive for the virus. Have you seen/heard that? I guess im at the point if i don't know if i'm overreacting, under reacting or being normal? I also don't know who/what to believe anymore.
BillsFan4 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) Edit - delete. I don’t think the article was accurate. Edited April 17, 2020 by BillsFan4
Jrb1979 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-surges-in-some-asian-countries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743 Reported U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Reach Record 4,591 in 24 Hours Wow. ? I don’t think any other country in the world has come close to 4000 deaths in a single day. IIRC i think the closest any other country has come is about 1500 in a day (and I believe that was during northern italy’s peak). I feel so bad for my neighbors to the south. We are in a scary time and I am scared for what may happen if they rush to open up the economy so quick. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Author Posted April 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, CountDorkula said: Maybe you can help me out, but the whole number of deaths thing I dont know what to beleive anymore. I've seen stuff floating around that they are adding thousands to the death count even though they never tested positive for the virus. Have you seen/heard that? Yes, and to figure out what's going on it probably makes some sense. Here's why: -In both Italy, and NYC, they stopped testing people, even people with symptoms. Basically, they told everyone "unless your covid-19 symptoms include can't breathe , don't come to the hospital, we won't test you; call your doctor and stay home". -Good reasons for this: -if someone came to the hospital who had seasonal flu, or a cold, or an asthmatic attack, they would very likely get covid-19 on top of it -they were short on PPE and the testing protocol is 1 set of PPE and 1 throat swab per test (to avoid infecting people who don't have covid-19) -they had no space to treat even people who were quite ill and would normally be admitted. They would give them a treatment sheet & tell them call your doctor -But some of those people later died at home, or in nursing homes. Based on their symptoms, it is very very likely that they died of covid-19 So you're the public health doctor trying to sort out what is going on with the epidemic - do you count those people, or don't you? There is something called a "seasonal death rate" every year. If an area is seeing deaths far in excess of the 'seasonal death rate', and there are symptoms to justify that the person probably had covid-19 although untested, IMO it makes sense to count the deaths as covid-19 related. But arguments can be made either way. This is happening in China and in Italy and Spain, by the way - there are a lot of "excess seasonal deaths" over last year of people who weren't tested and counted as covid-19 cases, but who had some reason to believe they were - they were in a nursing home where others died from covid-19, or they were under a doctor's treatment for covid-19 symptoms albeit at home etc etc. It tends to happen whenever there is a disease outbreak that is beyond what the local health care system can contain. In Italy, there are studies looking at the seasonal death rate in the areas hard hit by covid-19 and saying the actual death toll may be 2-4x higher. Quote I guess im at the point if i don't know if i'm overreacting, under reacting or being normal? I also don't know who/what to believe anymore. I probably can't help you there. I kind of make up my mind the same way I always have - is something being consistently reported by several sources, especially sources that are rated as not much bias and pref. bias in opposite directions? Can it be independently verified and how? That kind of thing 2
Sundancer Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-surges-in-some-asian-countries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743 Reported U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Reach Record 4,591 in 24 Hours Wow. ? I don’t think any other country in the world has come close to 4000 deaths in a single day. IIRC i think the closest any other country has come is about 1500 in a day (and I believe that was during northern italy’s peak). We have only had over 2000 deaths in a day a few times so 4600 in 24 hours is just a counting anomaly, not an actual 24 hour spike. If we actually had 4500 deaths in a 24 hour period in the last few days, the preceding or following 24 would be much less than 2000, and that hasn’t happened. The WSJ could also be conflating the 3700 death increase from Weds into these numbers. Whatever it is, it doesn’t align with numbers reported from other sources. 1
BillsFan4 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) I think some of these tracking sites that use estimates may be over reporting COVID19 deaths. But I think the confirmed death totals are most likely being under reported. Many states are only counting COVID19 deaths if you tested positive before death. Morticians are asking for tests to confirm cause of death and being told no. Its why you saw NYS add a “probable death” category (that added 3700+ deaths). Before that they were only counting deaths in those w/confirmed positive tests before death. So that didn’t take into account things like the many DOA (dead on arrival) paramedic calls every day, where the suspected chase of death was COVID19. I think confirmed covid19 deaths are likely being under reported world wide. Wuhan, China just doubled their reported death totals yesterday. Italy is still under reporting covid deaths. I’m sure it’s the same in other countries too. 13 minutes ago, Sundancer said: We have only had over 2000 deaths in a day a few times so 4600 in 24 hours is just a counting anomaly, not an actual 24 hour spike. If we actually had 4500 deaths in a 24 hour period in the last few days, the preceding or following 24 would be much less than 2000, and that hasn’t happened. The WSJ could also be conflating the 3700 death increase from Weds into these numbers. Whatever it is, it doesn’t align with numbers reported from other sources. That makes more sense. Yeah, I saw that headline on WSJ and said “holy ****!”. Edit - I just checked that world o meter site and it shows about 2100 for yesterday. While obviously still a devastating total, it seems more in line with previous days totals. I thought that a spike of over 2000 over the previous day seemed extreme. Edited April 17, 2020 by BillsFan4 1
Sundancer Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well. I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. 6 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: . That makes more sense. Yeah, I saw that headline on WSJ and said “holy ****!”. Edit - I just checked that world o meter site and it shows about 2100 for yesterday. While obviously still a devastating total, it seems more in line with previous days totals. I thought that a spike of over 2000 over the previous day seemed extreme. I read the WSJ every day. That was the first story I ever entered a comment on. It is terrible reporting for what was NY/NJ “reporting” deaths for two days in the same 24 hour window (1pm report one day, 1230 report day following equals 2x deaths in a calendar day but really is 2 days of deaths) or has something to do with the 3700 death dump. Either way, it’s clearly a bull#### number manipulated to grab a headline. It’s really uncharacteristic for the Journal to report like that. Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer 3
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Author Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Sundancer said: Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well. I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. I think we're in general agreement. I can't say that I disagree with you about the likelihood of contact tracing being ready or happening. Epidemiologically, it's not optional, though. Containment literally can not happen effectively without it, especially for a disease where something like 1/5-1/2 may be asymptomatic. Realize that "essential travel" is already happening now - truckers are still driving interstate carrying needed goods, airplane pilots are still flying, and some people are still traveling on needed business - for one example, pharmaceutical manufacturing in this day and age particularly for biological treatments and vaccines, usually involves collaboration in 3-4 groups in different states or even different countries. A lot of work can be done remotely, but eventually you need "boots on the ground" to get things right. All politicians need to be accountable and take responsibility for all their words right now, that's all I'll say. One can't promote one thing in a press conference or briefing and say something else on Twitter, then deflect responsibility for the effects of those tweets. 2
BillsFan4 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Sundancer said: Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well. I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. I read the WSJ every day. That was the first story I ever entered a comment on. It is terrible reporting for what was NYC “reporting” all their deaths in the same 24 hour window or has something to do with the 3700 death dump. Either way, it’s clearly a bull#### number manipulated to grab a headline. It’s really uncharacteristic for the Journal to report like that. Yeah that’s why I posted it. I should have checked into it first, but it was the WSJ. They’re usually pretty trustworthy. 1
Jrb1979 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 I look at what they are doing here in Canada and wish they would follow that model in the U.S. I am afraid of the jump in deaths and cases with such this rush to open the economy They haven't even begun to discuss any guidelines on how to open the economy. Summer is the earliest they have discussed in lifting some restrictions. The government here is going by whatever the health experts are saying. They don't expect to get back to fully normal til there is a treatment or a vaccine. 1
Bad Things Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: I look at what they are doing here in Canada and wish they would follow that model in the U.S. I am afraid of the jump in deaths and cases with such this rush to open the economy They haven't even begun to discuss any guidelines on how to open the economy. Summer is the earliest they have discussed in lifting some restrictions. The government here is going by whatever the health experts are saying. They don't expect to get back to fully normal til there is a treatment or a vaccine. Same here in New Zealand. Our PM is following the advice of the health professionals. I am so worried about what is happening back in America. Although I live half a world away, all of my family and friends (and you, Bills fans, reading this!) are back there... I wish you all nothing but the best. Edited April 17, 2020 by Bad Things 2 3
Gray Beard Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Bad Things said: Same here in New Zealand. Our PM is following the advice of the health professionals. I am so worried about what is happening back in America. Although I live half a world away, all of my family and friends (and you!) are back there... I wish you all nothing but the best. @Hapless Bills Fan have you seen this one? https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/ 2 1
BillsFan4 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 This picture appears to be real from what I can tell. I went to the action news Jacksonville site and they have a live web camera from Jacksonville beach pier and you could see a bunch of people walking. https://www.actionnewsjax.com/weather/skycams/ Apparently starting today the beaches are open from 6-11am and 5-8pm every day, but only for exercise. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Author Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: This picture appears to be real from what I can tell. I went to the action news Jacksonville site and they have a live web camera from Jacksonville beach pier and you could see a bunch of people walking. https://www.actionnewsjax.com/weather/skycams/ Apparently starting today the beaches are open from 6-11am and 5-8pm every day, but only for exercise. Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up. People need exercise and sunshine. Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion 1
SDS Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up. People need exercise and sunshine. Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion we closed ours because people wouldn’t. 1
Jrb1979 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up. People need exercise and sunshine. Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion You would think but if you look at the amount of people in the picture they obviously don't get the message. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Author Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, SDS said: we closed ours because people wouldn’t. Unfortunately, same here: all County parks closed State Parks nearest KC and St Louis and one of the most popular about 1 hr away closed Two counties about 90 minutes from St Louis which have very popular State Parks (but no hospitals) closed to non-residents, basically saying "we don't need you to drive down here for a picnic and bring covid-19 with you" 1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said: You would think but if you look at the amount of people in the picture they obviously don't get the message. Welp, Then, that'll work out well
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