Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Saxum]

 

You will find this on many sites. First place I saw it was on a site of Dr Monika Langeh, a Kashmiri Pandit doctor.

 

Most of the time it is in social media comments but a number of other websites have it as well.

 

 

https://www.maine.gov/ems/node/179

[Cripple Creek]

Think we've made a lasting impression on our world?  Think again.

 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/crocodiles-take-over-oaxaca-beaches/

[LeGOATski]

40 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Think we've made a lasting impression on our world?  Think again.

 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/crocodiles-take-over-oaxaca-beaches/

At a beach that just had a crocodile attack in November. 

 

No *****...

[Cripple Creek]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

At a beach that just had a crocodile attack in November. 

 

No *****...

You've seen the other similar stories, I assume?  Or, are you one who overvalues his existence? 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Cripple Creek said:

You've seen the other similar stories, I assume?  Or, are you one who overvalues his existence? 

Animals are stretching out a bit more. This is not expected?

 

I'm happy for them, lol.

[Hardhatharry]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Animals are stretching out a bit more. This is not expected?

 

I'm happy for them, lol.

Yea they do that everywhere it's why in some states they have hunting season to push them back.  Where I lived in Jersey they had protected parks but every few years they allowed bow hunting on certain days to push back the deer population, the parks are close to houses and major roads so Bows only.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Hardhatharry

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

Yea they do that everywhere it's why in some states they have hunting season to push them back.  Where I lived in Jersey they had protected parks but every few years they allowed bow hunting on certain days to push back the deer population, the parks are close to houses and major roads so Bows only.

Yeah, its necessary. We gotta do our part to maintain the balance.

(Circle of Life plays in the background)

[Saxum]

 

My sister in WNY called me because I have talked to her since she last called me and was worried.

 

I talked to her and found out she is under quarantine with the virus but evidently got a mild version without the fever or respiration issues.

She got massive headaches, exhaustion and chills.

 

Last week Tuesday the founder of the company came down to floor and he is elderly so she helped him with coat and he gave her a hug.  She has treated her like family since she worked there.  He appeared a bit ill to her.  He died Wednesday from a fast moving virus in him.  His son said when working now everyone will need to wear masks.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

My sister in WNY called me because I have talked to her since she last called me and was worried.

 

I talked to her and found out she is under quarantine with the virus but evidently got a mild version without the fever or respiration issues.

She got massive headaches, exhaustion and chills.

 

Last week Tuesday the founder of the company came down to floor and he is elderly so she helped him with coat and he gave her a hug.  She has treated her like family since she worked there.  He appeared a bit ill to her.  He died Wednesday from a fast moving virus in him.  His son said when working now everyone will need to wear masks.

 

Sorry to hear about the company founder's death

 

Glad to hear your sis seems to be whuppin' it.  Tell her to breath deeply and move around, even if she is so exhausted it takes minutes to cross the floor.  Lungs need movement to work correctly.

[T&C]

The shortage seems to have ended, in most places anyways. On the shelf at all of the stores around here.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[Sundancer]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don’t know if this sentiment is right as a reaction to the guidelines, though in general I get it. 

With respect to the guidelines, in the Northesst plus MI and IL...and for southern states, they are not close to phase 1 by definition unless cases slow starting today. They can’t meet two weeks of case declines or 2 weeks of pct pos case declines. For as good as PA can feel about its success, at best it has just a couple days of the former. So those states aren’t ready to change a thing. 
 

Some Midwest and western states though, are ready for Phase 1 and that’s a slight change from where we are now. It may take many weeks at Phase 1 before phase 2, where I feel things start to feel like what will be the new normal, resumes. 
 

My instinct is that governors will feel pressure to get to phase 1 because that’s at least a limping economy, but we will be stuck there for 6-8 weeks in places with large metros. 
 

Phase 3 could be a long time coming and I think we will end up bouncing between 1 and 2 a lot. Governors should feel relieved that the feds took a lot of this off their backs and they can add some implementation details but politically hide behind these guidelines as states open and close. 
 

I don’t think NYC metro can follow these by the way. It will need a much more careful approach. With 50% of the entire US impact, it needs its own guidelines with more details. 
 

A website will probably be up by the end of the day with phasing grades for states and maybe cities. The NY Times data analysis sites have been stellar and I bet they have this soon. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

FBI: Coronavirus provides criminals opportunities at 'breathtaking' speed

By Bradford Betz | Fox News

 

The FBI on Wednesday warned that the public health and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic are providing criminals with illicit opportunities at “breathtaking” speed.

The agency said a wave of criminals has emerged in recent months as U.S. officials scramble to coordinate relief efforts.

 

Although “swindles, scams, and outright thefts” are a regular feature of major disasters, the novel coronavirus has provided “criminal opportunities on a scale likely to dwarf anything seen before,” the FBI said in a statement, adding: “The speed at which criminals are devising and executing their schemes is truly breathtaking.”

 

The FBI has uncovered a plethora of criminal activity in connection with the pandemic ranging from sham treatments and vaccines to bogus investment opportunities in non-existent medical companies.

 

Crooks have been busted for impersonating doctors demanding payment for treatments. Scammers have used websites and mobile apps to implant malware to steal financial and personal information.

 

Other criminals have used COVID-19 as a lure to deploy ransomware for payments – a practice the FBI derided as “homicidal in the midst of a global pandemic.”

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-coronavirus-criminal-opportunities

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

 

[Greg S]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Sundancer said:

I don’t know if this sentiment is right as a reaction to the guidelines, though in general I get it. 

 

Not intended I think as a reaction to the guidelines.  More intended as a reaction to this:


It should be noted that the photographer has stated he is very uncomfortable with the comparison to zombies:

                       "They are people. They have a right to protest and have their voice heard."
 

I would have more respect with them exercising their right to protest if they were doing so in a socially responsible way, so as to make sure they don't add to the epidemic that is causing the restrictions they are protesting against (that's convoluted, but hopefully understandable)

And this:
https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/coronavirus/parson-extends-stay-at-home-order-to-may-3-says-state-making-plans-to-reopen/article_594a2719-864d-58ee-af01-67a19a69112c.html?fbclid=IwAR3f_Q5kJQ4zz0oAXThtf5v53RIWv60ki78jF23C0tOePB1JFLprl62-bCY#utm_source=stltoday.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Fbreaking&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=c5590820a663cb96ab50a2bdbd89f76bb26c24f7
 

On Facebook, [State Senator] O’Laughlin has called extensions of those orders by other governors “ridiculous” and said rural areas like her sprawling district, covering much of the northeast part of the state, should be treated differently than urban areas.

“One of the major problems with the ‘one size fits all’ lockdown based on the worst-hit sections of the country is that rural areas are not experiencing any issues with the virus. Treating major cities and rural areas the same is a ludicrous approach,” she wrote in a Wednesday post.

 

According to the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, 44 residents of O’Laughlin’s district have tested positive for COVID-19. One person in Linn County has died from the virus.

 

Adair County, home of Truman State University in Kirksville, has the most cases with 12, out of the 14 counties she represents.

Here's a map of Missouri covid-19 cases by population.  O'Laughlin represents the NE corner of the state.  It can be seen that two of her counties have rates of infection comparable to Kansas City (the small blobs above the straight line at the W border of the state) or other more urban areas.  I wouldn't bet the rent that the others are clear.

A number of these diagnoses are recent.  Epidemiologists at U of T have calculated that if a county has one positive test, it goes from a 9% chance to a 50% chance of having an undetected outbreak circulating.   (The linked study is outdated - from April 3.  Scotland county, one of the "comparable to Kansas City" counties, had 0 cases at that time and shows as grey)

 

These areas have very little in the way of hospitals and less in the way of ICU beds.  They typically have little better healthcare than inner city areas that are being hard hit.  Similarly, a lot of the residents are older, and have underlying health conditions - smoke, high blood pressure, diabetes. 

It can be seen there are also several other predominantly rural counties with rates of infection comparable to the cities in MO - Saline County in the center of the state, and Perry County.  (I think, but don't know, that those are truck-stop related)

 

Will ~two more weeks suffice to snuff any outbreaks out?  They might if there were a clear National message "steady as you go, keep the parachute on for now". 

I don't think that's the message people in those counties are getting.  I think they heard that packed churches on Easter would be a beautiful thing, and that it's time to go back to work as soon as possible, that covid-19 is a "big city" problem that is NIMBY.

 

Quote

With respect to the guidelines, in the Northeast plus MI and IL...and for southern states, they are not close to phase 1 by definition unless cases slow starting today. They can’t meet two weeks of case declines or 2 weeks of pct pos case declines. For as good as PA can feel about its success, at best it has just a couple days of the former. So those states aren’t ready to change a thing. 
 

Some Midwest and western states though, are ready for Phase 1 and that’s a slight change from where we are now. It may take many weeks at Phase 1 before phase 2, where I feel things start to feel like what will be the new normal, resumes. 
 

My instinct is that governors will feel pressure to get to phase 1 because that’s at least a limping economy, but we will be stuck there for 6-8 weeks in places with large metros.

 

I'm just curious as to which Midwest and Western states you feel this applies to.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines/trump-unveils-three-stage-process-for-states-to-end-coronavirus-shutdown-idUSKBN21Y31W

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines-fac-idUSKBN21Y3HL

1. States should have a “downward trajectory” of COVID-19 cases for a 14-day period before reopening, or a downward trajectory of positive tests for the same time period, given flat or increasing testing levels.

2. U.S. states have core responsibility for testing and tracing citizens. A list of “core state preparedness responsibilities” includes the “ability to quickly set up safe and efficient screening and testing sites” and ensure “surveillance sites are screening for asymptomatic cases” and COVID-19 positive people are traced.
 

3. Phase 1 of the reopening recommends that schools and daycare facilities remain closed and that people maintain social distancing in public. Businesses should continue to encourage teleworking, and meetings of more than 10 people should be discouraged.

Event spaces like movie theaters can reopen, with “strict” social distancing measures in place. Elective surgeries can resume, on an outpatient basis.

Non-essential travel and visits to senior living facilities should remain suspended. Gyms can reopen, with proper sanitation and distances, but bars should not.

As far as point 2: States have vastly different levels of public health (and health in general) infrastructure.  But we're all geographically connected. Many people cross state lines every day in their normal lives.  So you have citizens in State B being affected by the actions of neighbor states.   And you still have states bidding against each other for testing supplies and PPE, and against the Federal government in some instances.  This is simply not a practical (or IMHO effective)  way to manage a public health emergency.

Also....In a functional economy, US citizens travel widely across the country in the practice of their essential jobs.  Truck drivers and pilots for two groups.  Businesspeople - Pharma companies working on a potential covid-19 cure may have sites working on it in 5 different states, some but not all work can be done remotely.  How does it make sense to have contact tracing be the responsibility of the State, when in an open, functional economy it is of necessity inter-state?

 

 

 

[Sundancer]

38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines/trump-unveils-three-stage-process-for-states-to-end-coronavirus-shutdown-idUSKBN21Y31W

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines-fac-idUSKBN21Y3HL

1. States should have a “downward trajectory” of COVID-19 cases for a 14-day period before reopening, or a downward trajectory of positive tests for the same time period, given flat or increasing testing levels.

2. U.S. states have core responsibility for testing and tracing citizens. A list of “core state preparedness responsibilities” includes the “ability to quickly set up safe and efficient screening and testing sites” and ensure “surveillance sites are screening for asymptomatic cases” and COVID-19 positive people are traced.
 

3. Phase 1 of the reopening recommends that schools and daycare facilities remain closed and that people maintain social distancing in public. Businesses should continue to encourage teleworking, and meetings of more than 10 people should be discouraged.

Event spaces like movie theaters can reopen, with “strict” social distancing measures in place. Elective surgeries can resume, on an outpatient basis.

Non-essential travel and visits to senior living facilities should remain suspended. Gyms can reopen, with proper sanitation and distances, but bars should not.

As far as point 2: States have vastly different levels of public health (and health in general) infrastructure.  But we're all geographically connected. Many people cross state lines every day in their normal lives.  So you have citizens in State B being affected by the actions of neighbor states.   And you still have states bidding against each other for testing supplies and PPE, and against the Federal government in some instances.  This is simply not a practical (or IMHO effective)  way to manage a public health emergency.
 

 

 

The contact tracing is the big hole in this. There's no way it's going to happen quickly, or by state. I see that continuing to be nearly 100% ignored. Federal leadership would be welcome here but it isn't coming, so these guidelines will probably be what we have going forward.

 

Quote

Also....In a functional economy, US citizens travel widely across the country in the practice of their essential jobs.  Truck drivers and pilots for two groups.  Businesspeople - Pharma companies working on a potential covid-19 cure may have sites working on it in 5 different states, some but not all work can be done remotely.  How does it make sense to have contact tracing be the responsibility of the State, when in an open, functional economy it is of necessity inter-state?

 

With respect to this, it's not until there's sustained downwards shift that travel is supposed to happen. And I don't think businesses will be rushing to do this. 

 

You asked about which states are ready. I would refer to the RPI map. The darker blue states may be either ready or close to it. The others are not. I am not making a specific judgment on a specific state because I can't see each state's trajectory, but just noting that by the guidelines (minus tracing, which is probably a lost cause sadly), some are likely ready to enter phase 1, with maybe some lighter blue states being ~2 weeks away. 

 

https://covidminder.idea.rpi.edu/

 

 

***

The US I believe is currently in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are. The "leap day" in the below data was the NYC reclassification day for the 3700 deaths, after which all deaths are counted in the same way. If you spread that spike backwards weighted towards more recent days when more people were dying, we have been more or less around 2000 deaths for about 10 days. No remarkable decline yet sadly. My numbers instinct says that once we are seeing this below about 1300 for 3 days in a row, we can feel like we're making good progress on deaths.

 

 

If we were phasing the US according to the Opening America guidelines and ignoring the tracking/tracing requirement, we would likely be 4 weeks away from a Phase 1 attempt.  

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

The contact tracing is the big hole in this. There's no way it's going to happen quickly, or by state. I see that continuing to be nearly 100% ignored. Federal leadership would be welcome here but it isn't coming, so these guidelines will probably be what we have going forward.

 

If you are correct about contact tracing not happening, then strictly from an epidemiological standpoint, reopening attempts will result in a surge of cases and will fail.  There WILL be cases that pop up.  They WILL be transmitted by people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. 

Unless we can test everyone in the US on a regular basis (unlikely), contact tracing is the ONLY way to achieve disease containment.  This tenet of epidemiology is literally written in blood.

[Sundancer]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you are correct about contact tracing not happening, then strictly from an epidemiological standpoint, reopening attempts will result in a surge of cases and will fail.  There WILL be cases that pop up.  They WILL be transmitted by people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. 

Unless we can test everyone in the US on a regular basis (unlikely), contact tracing is the ONLY way to achieve disease containment.  This tenet of epidemiology is literally written in blood.

I think we will have ample testing soon, but I suspect tracking will be ad hoc where people inform their employers and people they visited, who will then get tested, but not a wider group of contacts who are strangers. 
 

I am resigning myself to the no contact tracing because so many people are freaking out about it. I of course favor it and am both surprised and happy to see the Trump admin pushing for it. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer