Augie Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 It’s a good thing I’m retired. Since I started paying attention, it has become abundantly clear that I spend so much time touching my face that I have absolutely ZERO time to get any work done! I just can’t seem to stop! 1
DrDawkinstein Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Dawkinstein, the logic train of that link is fine, but I'd just like to note that there are links to far more vetted articles which rely upon the mathmatics of professional epidemiologists here (it's a bit beyond algebra). Thanks. But I think the point is very valid: what some of the epidemiologists are saying can be independently confirmed by a person able to do algebra and wield a pencil, the details may be off a bit but the conclusions are the same. Sure, I would never say it is 100% solid science, nor did I post it that way. But it is a good perspective-setter. And saves us from re-typing all of that.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said: Sure, I would never say it is 100% solid science, nor did I post it that way. But it is a good perspective-setter. And saves us from re-typing all of that. My point is that we have some truly solid science articles linked here, and while the back-of-the-envelopes of folks have merit, it is great to encourage people to read them. I'll link a few of them again:https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://www.geekwire.com/2020/genetic-analysis-suggests-coronavirus-infections-double-every-six-days-spreading-hundreds/ https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I posted this in the PPP Forum, but added it here for folks who don't go there. The effects on everyday life will increase. My neighbor is a renowned scientist at the University of Rochester. He owns this biotech company that has made some significant discoveries. I will try to catch up with him this weekend to see how optimistic he is. It does not sound like it is THE cure, but any type of deterrent could slow the panic. ROC biotech company says lab tests of former cancer drug confirm it stops COVID-19 by Jane Flasch-13 WHAM NEWS Wednesday, March 11th 2020 Rochester, N.Y. - A vaccine for COVID-19 is likely years away. Yet a drug tested in a lab three weeks ago has been found to stop the virus from spreading from cell to cell. The stunning announcement comes from a Rochester biotech company called OyaGen, Inc. The company is seeking to fast-track the formula to treat people who become infected. "A treatment right now is the priority," said Dr. Harold Smith of OyaGen. He added the drug already has FDA approval for another use. The tests were conducted at the federal government's integrated research facility in Fort Detrick, Md. A drug called Oya 1 had already been proven in lab tests there to be effective against Ebola. https://13wham.com/news/local/roc-biotech-company-says-lab-tests-of-former-cancer-drug-confirm-it-stops-covid-19 1
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 and i just found out that a family member of an employee is being tested as we speak. mostly because of where they were travel wise, but yeah.
DrDawkinstein Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, teef said: and i just found out that a family member of an employee is being tested as we speak. mostly because of where they were travel wise, but yeah. That's good, in that we need way more testing than is currently happening. Start up the drive-thrus! 3
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: I posted this in the PPP Forum, but added it here for folks who don't go there. The effects on everyday life will increase. My neighbor is a renowned scientist at the University of Rochester. He owns this biotech company that has made some significant discoveries. I will try to catch up with him this weekend to see how optimistic he is. It does not sound like it is THE cure, but any type of deterrent could slow the panic. ROC biotech company says lab tests of former cancer drug confirm it stops COVID-19 by Jane Flasch-13 WHAM NEWS Wednesday, March 11th 2020 Rochester, N.Y. - A vaccine for COVID-19 is likely years away. Yet a drug tested in a lab three weeks ago has been found to stop the virus from spreading from cell to cell. The stunning announcement comes from a Rochester biotech company called OyaGen, Inc. The company is seeking to fast-track the formula to treat people who become infected. "A treatment right now is the priority," said Dr. Harold Smith of OyaGen. He added the drug already has FDA approval for another use. The tests were conducted at the federal government's integrated research facility in Fort Detrick, Md. A drug called Oya 1 had already been proven in lab tests there to be effective against Ebola. https://13wham.com/news/local/roc-biotech-company-says-lab-tests-of-former-cancer-drug-confirm-it-stops-covid-19 The phrasing of this is very much media media hype. The company and the existence of the drug are legit, but I can tell you from a decade working in big pharma: LAB TESTS MEAN DIPSHIT! There are always many drugs that work in the lab, but are found to not work in clinical trials or to have unacceptable side effects. Reasons for this include absorption issues (can we get it to the right place in the person?), pharmacokinetics (will it last long enough to work? will it be broken down in the body faster than it can work?) and then some that get there, and last, but are simply ineffective for reasons that require more study. Here is a more factual, rational article about it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oyagen-inc-announces-compound-development-135100257.html Several drugs have been found to have efficacy in the lab. One of the furthest along is Gilead lab's Remdesivir. The drug is currently undergoing clinical trials, and the outcome of those trials is pending https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705 China has also tested something like 30 existing drugs and found some with efficacy, one reason their death rate is dropping. Several are now undergoing formal clinical trials: in addition to Remdesivir, those are Chloroquine Phosphate and Favipiravir.https://tribune.net.ph/index.php/2020/02/17/drugs-against-covid-19-under-clinical-trials/ PS clinical trials at least of vaccines should be occurring by next fall, but a working, effective vaccine might take 18 months 1 2
Wacka Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Easy-peasy. As I explained above, RNA viruses are slobs. They mutate all the time - about 2 viable mutations a month or so, maybe more if they’re cycling more often. Some mutations have little or no effect. All it takes is a single mutation at the wrong place that allows the virus to propagate human to human. Has happened before. Will happen again with different viruses. It can be something simple - a change in amino acid charge that makes the virus suspend in the air better and travel further. Now it can infect human to human, and spread further than animal to human. Maybe while spreading human to human it picks up a second mutation a few infections later that makes it more efficient at binding to human lung receptors. Then the virus with the successful mutation is more successful so it spreads more widely. Is the Coronavirus a single-stranded RNA virus or double stranded? Is the DNA one segment or several?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Wacka said: Is the Coronavirus a single-stranded RNA virus or double stranded? Is the DNA one segment or several? Single stranded positive sense. DNA not applicable; that's what being an RNA virus means - no DNA
CountDorkula Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 This appears to show all of america is available to get tested.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, CountDorkula said: This appears to show all of america is available to get tested. A commitment to free testing for all Americans is great in theory, but it comes down to some boots on the ground realities before it happens: 1) where are the tests available? 2) who is doing the testing? 3) what is their capacity to complete the testing? 4) how many tests are available for them to use? On March 4th, Pence said 1.5M tests would be available this week. The number I heard was that 7,500 tests were shipped to health labs across the country. Recently he said 5M. That would be great, but number actually available unknown. Even if the test kits are available, we need a coordinated effort to get trained people administering and processing tests and reporting results. 1
Wacka Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Single stranded positive sense. DNA not applicable; that's what being an RNA virus means - no DNA I thought there were a few DS RNA viruses. Of course I got my PhD in Molecular Biology almost 30 years ago so my memory might be getting a little fuzzy.. Edited March 12, 2020 by Wacka
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wacka said: I thought there were a few DS RNA viruses. Of course I got my PhD in Molecular Biology almost 30 years ago so my memory might be getting a little fuzzy.. Not being a virologist, my knowledge of the totality of viral genomes is incomplete and you may be correct, Ida know I wasn't intending to speak of all RNA viruses, just of Coronaviri. Single stranded positive sense. No DNA
FireChans Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Wacka said: I thought there were a few DS RNA viruses. Of course I got my PhD in Molecular Biology almost 30 years ago so my memory might be getting a little fuzzy.. There are. You are correct.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, FireChans said: There are. You are correct. What is the perceived relevance to Covid19 or Coronaviri here? Honest question to @FireChans and @Wacka? No one made a general statement about there not being such; the specific question asked and answered was about Coronavirus Is there somewhere you're going with this re: Covid19?
Jrb1979 Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 https://talbotspy.org/letter-from-toronto-an-infectious-diseases-specialist-reflects-on-corvid-19/ After reading that post from that Dr. I agree with it. I will give you the short form of it. He basically says that while he is concerned for those that are at high risk but he isn't scared of this virus. As he states "What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others.others." He is also scared that we teaching our kids to panic, fear and be suspicious instead of being rational and open minded. 1
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: https://talbotspy.org/letter-from-toronto-an-infectious-diseases-specialist-reflects-on-corvid-19/ After reading that post from that Dr. I agree with it. I will give you the short form of it. He basically says that while he is concerned for those that are at high risk but he isn't scared of this virus. As he states "What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others.others." He is also scared that we teaching our kids to panic, fear and be suspicious instead of being rational and open minded. What’s too bad is that there will always be a crowd that feels this is just an over reaction. You can choose to see what’s happening around you and be part of the solution, or you can claim strict over reaction. One way is certainly easier than the other. Seems like you’ve chosen. Edited March 12, 2020 by teef
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: You have got to be ***** kidding me.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, teef said: You have got to be ***** kidding me. I wish I were
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