Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, K-9 said: All true. Regardless, we do know unequivocally that this virus can and will overrun health care systems when given the chance. And yet we’ve insisted on giving it chance after chance. This. I get so frustrated when people focus in on the case fatality rate or the (still hypothetical) infection fatality rate. The media dialed in on it, because a virus killing 15 or 10 or 5 percent of the known infections is certainly scary. But the real problem is and has always been, that this virus gets enough people sick enough that they overwhelm the hospitals. This is true whether the true infection fatality rate is actually 2% or 1% or 0.5% or 0.25%. Hospitals fill up, because this is a disease with prolonged recovery. People who are sick enough that in normal times they'd be hospitalized get sent home. Patients in hospital can't get the same level of care and attention they would otherwise get. The case fatality rate grows higher than it should be if everyone got optimal care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 On 7/20/2020 at 4:54 PM, Figster said: I think your kiddo also has the benifit of having an intelligent and well informed Dad who gets it. Well, if the parents are throwing parties and shoulder-to-shoulder in bars or pools, it does lower the odds for the kids "getting it" [edit: the point of social distancing/masking. it probably increases their odds for getting the virus!] On the other hand, a number of kids with informed parents and even vulnerable grandparents living at home just don't "get it" and continue to mix mingle and party, so it has to say something about the kid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 23 hours ago, KD in CA said: States spiked at different times.....started w/ NY and the northeast, now it's moved south. That was always going to happen, so not sure why people are acting like a spike in FL is so different than a spike in NY. A spike in FL, now, is different than a spike in NY because we are 4 months into our epidemic. When covid-19 took off in March in NYC: 1) community transmission was considered unproven 2) it was not known how many asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic cases there were - "stay home if you're sick and wash your hands" is effective advice for disease where people aren't contagious until they develop symptoms, but totally inadequate in the presence of significant asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission 3) aerosol transmission was not recognized 4) testing, our first line of defense against a contagious disease, was ridiculously limited due to failures to roll out the CDC test and failure to engage the private sector One major point of learnings about how the disease spreads, and of having testing and contact tracing capability, is supposed to be to avoid repeating the mistakes that other regions made. And we're not doing that. That's why a spike in FL and in TX and in AZ and in CA is different than a spike in NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 On 7/21/2020 at 2:59 AM, Figster said: A fairly recent article that concerns me https://abcnews.go.com/US/scientists-covid-19-spread-particles-air/story?id=71665634 Older article ( not reviewed ) that I also find concerning https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/494677-coronavirus-detected-on-air-pollution-particles-report Not enough is known yet about Covid 19 and why I urge everyone to err on the side of caution indoors or outdoors. Hi Figster, Concern and erring on the point of caution to where you're comfortable, nothing wrong with that. A few other points: 1) can show by several tests that almost any face covering reduces output of particles and aerosols: https://www.pbs.org/video/how-well-do-masks-work-ke2qje/ 2) "dilution is the solution to pollution" - indoors vs outdoors is always key, distance still matters From ABC article you link: "Traditionally the word airborne has been associated with traveling long distances, but really what we are trying to say is that it seems that inhalation of aerosol happens at short and close contact ranges too," said Marr. Some experts have taken issue with the WHO's technical definition of 'airborne,' arguing it is too narrow and relies on methods derived from the 1930s and 40s. The WHO says a virus is 'airborne' if it can be spread by particles that are smaller than 5 microns -- smaller than an invisible grain of dust -- and viable over a distance greater than approximately 3 feet. (this is Measles)" That's not what appears to be going on with Covid-19: According to Dr. Donald Milton, professor of environmental health at the University of Maryland School of Public Health and co-author of the letter, "You can have particles as big as 10 or 20 or even 30 microns that can float quite a long distance indoors." But the concerns point to: "In a poorly ventilated environment 6 feet is not gonna mean very much," said Milton. "Indoor air is still and being stirred up by air conditioning system and heat/thermal plumes from people, lamps, and computer screens. This will keep aerosols much bigger than 5 microns floating around and and carry them much farther than 6 feet, even if it's just people talking and singing nobody with explosive coughs." ""We should replace the 6 foot rule with distance and time matters," added Brosseau. "Distance and time is key. The further you are from the source and the shorter period of time, the lower the concentration will be. I can't say what the distance is, but make it as great as possible." [Edit: I just put up an article that may interest @Figster and others on the Facts thread. Feel free to tag on to this post to discuss] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Signs of our time "Are you practicing safe six" ? Sign at farmers market "Please stay 1 cow length apart'' 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niagara Bill Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That's 100% so true at this time! It's possible that we may be able to predict in the not-too-distant future. Not to "bump" my own post on another thread but this paper really is big news . It has important news for the vaccine front, for the enduring immunity front, and a possible clue on the "why is it some people don't get very sick?" front - just like the 1918 flu, it appears that some people have been previously exposed to one or more animal coronaviruses that have conserved regions to Sars CoV2!!!! and have memory T cells to mount a defense against it. Historically, as soon as something is known to be important, bright folks get to work figuring out how to measure it. It's not a slam-dunk, mind, but it's hopeful. Your take is interesting and perhaps some truth involved in some articles. We have a lot of opinions in the news, way too much politics, fake news by politicians, Wall street money betting on one vaccine or another, early tests positives, yet we cannot even convince people to wear a mask. If a vaccine happens many will resist for sure. I have my doubts that a long term vaccine will occur. I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 58 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said: Your take is interesting and perhaps some truth involved in some articles. We have a lot of opinions in the news, way too much politics, fake news by politicians, Wall street money betting on one vaccine or another, early tests positives, yet we cannot even convince people to wear a mask. If a vaccine happens many will resist for sure. I have my doubts that a long term vaccine will occur. I hope I am wrong. "Perhaps some truth involved in some articles" Your point about many people resisting a vaccine is very valid. What I hope is that a vaccine would restore "freedom of choice" to seniors and other higher risk people. I can choose to get a vaccine and be protected from Mark Maskless. I can't wear a readily-available mask and be protected from him. My mask protects him; I'm only protected from him if he does his part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saxum Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 11 hours ago, Figster said: Not enough is known yet about Covid 19 and why I urge everyone to err on the side of caution indoors or outdoors. What choices are left besides indoors and outdoors? Under water? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, Limeaid said: What choices are left besides indoors and outdoors? Under water? The reason I mentioned outdoors is because from what I've seen Limeaid most people seem to be under the impression you are safe from Covid 19 on the outside when in reality you are not. Common sense tells you wind can increase how far something can travel. Early studies are also telling us Covid 19 is attaching itself to air pollution. We are seeing a correlation between higher case loads and deaths being recorded in places that air pollution is higher. The assumption is being made that this is because of the effect air pollution can have on the lungs. Myself personally, I'm not fully convinced. Covid 19 attaching itself to small particles of air pollution and being inhaled is also possible/ plausible in my humble opinion. Perhaps its a combination of the two. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/the-deadly-link-between-covid-19-and-air-pollution/ https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2020/07/17/why-air-pollution-is-linked-to-severe-cases-of-covid-19/ https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-exposure-linked-to-higher-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-new-study-141620 There are to many questions about Covid 19 and not enough answers. I think we are fortunate here on TBD to have someone like Hapless sifting through all the data and making heads or tails of it. While I may not agree 100% on all of his summary. (99%) I know his conclusions are well thought out and data driven. So when he posts something I pay very close attention. We all should. Space, the final frontier... Edited July 22, 2020 by Figster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 (edited) On 7/20/2020 at 5:26 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: So as testing has increased, the multiplier is probably more like 5-6 (course, it could be back to 10 Real Soon Now with surges...) I think the explanation of no 2nd big wave in NY is that NY is taking its test-trace-isolate and it's Mask Up! a LOT more seriously than other states did. Also, opening gradually and requiring masks gave people the message "it's not over, we must still be vigilant" In other states people were like "OK, we're good, back to normal!" and hey, Surge City! If people do likewise in NYS or if lotsa people don't take the 14 day entry quarantine seriously, "watch and learn" IMO I think the only places in NY that have herd immunity going down are select locations in NYC and a few nearby towns. National seroprevalence studies indicate nationwide, an infection rate no where near the 10% mark. But hey, we can work on that! (Oh-was that my outer voice?) https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-study-covid-19-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-reported-214522682.html Back up to 10 it appears Whats interesting is using the multiplier would also drop the US mortality rate 10 times lower then it is now. Edited July 22, 2020 by Figster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niagara Bill Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: "Perhaps some truth involved in some articles" Your point about many people resisting a vaccine is very valid. What I hope is that a vaccine would restore "freedom of choice" to seniors and other higher risk people. I can choose to get a vaccine and be protected from Mark Maskless. I can't wear a readily-available mask and be protected from him. My mask protects him; I'm only protected from him if he does his part. I only meant that I do not take all articles and studies as fully truthful. They often have very narrow approach (necessary at times) and self serving. Even Fauci said masks were ineffective at one time. That was one of the dumbest things said ever from a scientist. Why he said it,? Politics? The protection of supply for workers? Who knows. But we all knew that wearing a mask would help stop transmission, even if it was 5%...or 25%...or 50%. Your hand in front of your face would be helpful if someone coughed FFS. Is a vaccine coming? I would take it, I am one of the vulnerable, do I think it will happen? My guess less than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 On 7/22/2020 at 6:22 AM, Niagara Bill said: I only meant that I do not take all articles and studies as fully truthful. They often have very narrow approach (necessary at times) and self serving. It's an accurate point that studies vary in quality, especially looking at preprint studies that have not been peer reviewed. A bigger point is that media don't necessarily report on studies accurately or in context (which amounts to the same thing), and then social media reports distort further. Example: CDC prepublication of a Korean study on contact tracing between 20 Jan and 27 March. Reuters article about it: "South Korean epidemiologists have found that people were more likely to contract the new coronavirus from members of their own households than from contacts outside the home.....The findings showed that less than 2% of patients' non-household contacts had caught the virus, while nearly 12% of patients' household contacts had contracted the disease." and "By age group, the infection rate within the household was higher when the first confirmed cases were teenagers or people in their 60s and 70s" Social media questioning US school openings have seized on this to say that if teenagers go back to school, they will come home and infect the household. People who are against social distancing and mask use have seized on this to say "see, you're more likely to catch the virus at home, so we don't need to do all that stuff" But that's not what the authors of the article say: "These risks largely reflected transmission in the middle of mitigation and therefore might characterize transmission dynamics during school closure (3). Higher household than nonhousehold detection might partly reflect transmission during social distancing, when family members largely stayed home except to perform essential tasks". Their abstract, right up front: "Use of personal protective measures and social distancing reduces the likelihood of transmission" In other words, the authors feel their study supports that social distancing and PPE such as masks work, lowering transmission outside the home, and that more people in their study caught covid-19 inside the home because that's where people were spending almost all of their time. The point about difference in risk by age group is also significant. Children 0-9 were least likely to transmit the virus (despite probably needing the most intense care). Age 10-19 (described in Reuters as "teenagers") were most likely at 18%, age 60-70 16-17%. (The authors speculate, but really don't know why). My guess would be age 20-49 are more likely to still be working outside the home and to be spending a bit less time inside the home. Age 10-19 is a notorious "you're not the boss of me!" group in this country - if S. Korean kids go through a similar rebellious stage, they may be less likely to follow hygiene. From a Korean fellow I worked with, one dynamic is that retired people (age 60-70) are most likely to do marketing and food preparation for the household members who are working or studying. I'm not gonna go into the masks thing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) Just came across this site today. I’ve read a couple articles so far and felt it was worth sharing. @Hapless Bills Fan I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this site get a chance to look at it some time. https://www.erinbromage.com Quote ERIN BROMAGE: COVID-19 MUSINGS Always defer to the guidance from your local Health Department or the CDC! What you need to know up front: I am not claiming to be an expert in coronaviruses, medicine, or preparedness. I have a PhD in Microbiology and Immunology from James Cook University, Australia. I am an Assoc. Prof. of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, where I teach and research infectious diseases and host immune responses of animals. I get all of my information directly from experts in their fields and from the papers those experts are publishing daily. I mostly write these articles for my family, friends, and students, who value my advice. My email is erin.bromage@umassd.edu if you would like to verify the authenticity of my posts. Thought this article was pretty good/helpful. Edit - curious what you think of the advise in this article hapless. https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them Edited July 23, 2020 by BillsFan4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Just came across this site today. I’ve read a couple articles so far and felt it was worth sharing. @Hapless Bills Fan I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this site get a chance to look at it some time. https://www.erinbromage.com Thought this article was pretty good/helpful. https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them Looks good so far. Well referenced . She has a talent for the bottom line: Remember the formula: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time Like most of us, it's hard to keep up and there's sometimes newer stuff that contradicts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) LMAO ? Edited July 23, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeDudeAtHome Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 @Hapless Bills Fan, I'm not a large poster on this site but have been following this thread somewhat closely and respect your opinion and knowledge on the subject. Maybe I've missed this or maybe you won't want to give an answer on it because it's personal or political BUT do you think this virus escaped a lab either by accident or on purpose? I'm really not a conspiracy theorist (can't think of one other one I even remotely consider true) but this seems absolutely possible (and likely) to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 (edited) 58 minutes ago, SomeDudeAtHome said: @Hapless Bills Fan, I'm not a large poster on this site but have been following this thread somewhat closely and respect your opinion and knowledge on the subject. Maybe I've missed this or maybe you won't want to give an answer on it because it's personal or political BUT do you think this virus escaped a lab either by accident or on purpose? I'm really not a conspiracy theorist (can't think of one other one I even remotely consider true) but this seems absolutely possible (and likely) to me. There are 100s of Coronavirus in animals. Only 7 so far identified in humans. The first 4 discovered in 1960s and related to the common cold. The last three? SARs, MERs, and now this one, SARs-2 It spilled over from an animal and what a doosey it is. It ain't rare. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/20/807742861/new-research-bats-harbor-hundreds-of-coronaviruses-and-spillovers-arent-rare Edited July 24, 2020 by ExiledInIllinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 2 hours ago, SomeDudeAtHome said: @Hapless Bills Fan, I'm not a large poster on this site but have been following this thread somewhat closely and respect your opinion and knowledge on the subject. Maybe I've missed this or maybe you won't want to give an answer on it because it's personal or political BUT do you think this virus escaped a lab either by accident or on purpose? I'm really not a conspiracy theorist (can't think of one other one I even remotely consider true) but this seems absolutely possible (and likely) to me. I go by the analysis of the scientists I respect: No, I don't think the virus escaped from a lab accidentally, and certainly not on purpose. Thanks PS actually an interesting finding, just published, is that some people who have no diagnosed or known exposure to covid-19 and no antibodies, have T-cells that cross-react with Sars-CoV2 protein - but at a different locus, than the T-cells of convalescent covid-19 patients. The locus in question has only weak homology to human cold coronaviruses, but is highly conserved in animal coronaviruses. The implication is that there have been previous cross-over events from animals that have circulated in the human population un-remarked upon, just not one as mean as covid-19 can be. I put the link up in the Facts thread. I think the crossing over from animals into humans is probably way more common than has been recognized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 no matter what ya think of Fauci, this is pretty damn funny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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