Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 13, 2020 Author Posted April 13, 2020 If this is duplicate, I'll remove it. Hysterical!
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 13, 2020 Author Posted April 13, 2020 18 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said: I guess my assumption is that we are dealing with socially responsible people doing the right thing when they are moving between residences (not going out or traveling at all if they have had exposures or have symptoms; maintaining distance and staying at home regardless of their residence). the problems identified in the article you linked Have probably more to do with the socially irresponsible people. Hopefully there are far fewer of them now, at this point. If we were dealing with socially responsible people, unfortunately a lot of current restrictions wouldn't need to be in place - for example closing parks
K-9 Posted April 13, 2020 Posted April 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: If we were dealing with socially responsible people, unfortunately a lot of current restrictions wouldn't need to be in place - for example closing parks Yep. Sometimes we need to be protected from ourselves.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 13, 2020 Author Posted April 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, K-9 said: Yep. Sometimes we need to be protected from ourselves. With the add-in that (think it's memed above) saying "I'll be responsible for me and make my own decisions, you be responsible for you and make yours" is kind of like proposing to maintain a pee-free zone in a common swimming pool. That line of thought works as long as Person A's decisions don't affect Person B, and since we're all in the same pool, ah........
Bad Things Posted April 13, 2020 Posted April 13, 2020 If you're not watching the White House Briefing... I strongly suggest you do. Don't watch bits and pieces through the news. Watch the whole thing.
Saxum Posted April 13, 2020 Posted April 13, 2020 Good chart. Good for those raised in Florida schools or retiring in Florida with decreasing mental capacity.
BillsFan4 Posted April 13, 2020 Posted April 13, 2020 6 hours ago, Bad Things said: If you're not watching the White House Briefing... I strongly suggest you do. Don't watch bits and pieces through the news. Watch the whole thing. ?? [Edit: Hapless sez, I have all kind of things to say about this, but I think when we get into debating Federal vs State powers it's kind of beyond the scope here. So some pruning occurred. Fundamentally, the only one who should decide when and where to reopen is a qualified public health epidemiologist, and the proper role of elected officials in a public health emergency at the Local, State, OR Federal level should have is to move heaven and earth to get them the test data they need to make a sound public health decision. ]
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 14, 2020 Author Posted April 14, 2020 From the department of "Huh. You Don't Say." https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/?utm_source=facebook_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR36iRhOsa6GN2YTmYzobRpXI3h_8M4ycmzBtYCZz4y27PwfSrqDvT_1FGc "An evangelical pastor died of COVID-19 just weeks after proudly showing off how packed his Virginia church was — and vowing to keep preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.” "On Sunday, his church announced “with an exceedingly sorrowful and heavy heart” that the pastor had died a week after being diagnosed with COVID-19. His wife, Marcietia Glenn, is also sick ....... Their daughter, Mar-Gerie Crawley....... is now urging everyone to stay home. “It becomes very real to you,” she told WTVR after her parents’ diagnoses. “I just beg people to understand the severity and the seriousness of this, because people are saying it’s not just about us, it’s about everyone around us.” 1 1
ExiledInIllinois Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said: That pigeon might be Polish but it ain't no dumby! 1
Back2Buff Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) I seen some talk in another thread and decided to join to share my thoughts. There was talk about people being extremely sick ill back in December, and I can attest to this. It started for me on Black Friday with a sore throat that turned into a fever, body aches, and overall just feeling like junk. I however think this illness just weakened my immune system to get something way more seriously the first week in Dec. I still went to work while battling that cold, which was probably a mistake because it made me susceptible to other illnesses. I sit next another employee who's wife does international banking all over the country (including frequent long trips to China). She came back on thanksgiving to be home for the holidays. His whole family ended up getting sick, including him. I'm fairly confident I also had whatever his family had, because the entire office around him was ill too. It spread like something I have never seen. I ended up getting my parents ill too. The symptoms were much of the COVID-19. Started off with a massive headache (I never get headaches, but I couldn't even look my computer at work), then it went to my digestive track, next thing I know I have this fever and cough that would not go away. I usually workout everyday for about an hour and half after work but that was impossible (the exhaustion was immense). I would say for 2 and half full weeks I would wake up in legit puddles of sweat. I will never forget on Dec 13th (Friday the 13th), I thought I was a goner. My fever was so bad I was like almost blacking out. From there I had this cough and breathing issue that was so frustrating because there was like nothing to cough up. I coughed till at least mid January. My sister had this breathing machine for asthma, and I ended up doing that for about 3 weeks everyday. It was helping for a little, but had to do it about every 4 hours. This spread to my parents pretty bad and my mom ended up going to the doctors. The doctor told her it was probably pneumonia and gave her something (Doctor did very little because it has been so many weeks already since it started). Hands down the sickest I have ever been especially for how long it lasted. You would have days you felt ok, but then you would wake up the next day and have no idea how you are sicker than before. I consider myself a pretty healthy person too (kind of immune obsessed). I take all these precautions that the CDC wants now, every day (washing of hands, eating healthy, supplementary vitamins, holding large gatherings, etc.). This sickness in Dec was too strong though. Sorry it's long, but I seen some other posts on it and wanted to share what I experienced too. I did apply for that antibody test in that other thread. Edited April 14, 2020 by Back2Buff 1
John in Jax Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 16 hours ago, Bad Things said: If you're not watching the White House Briefing... I strongly suggest you do. Don't watch bits and pieces through the news. Watch the whole thing. I saw that presser as it happened yesterday, and it was very informative, and very entertaining! I especially liked Dr Fauci’s part near the very start of it, and his interaction with the female reporter who asked him if he was “ordered” to say what he said. All indications that I see are telling me that we’ll be back to “almost normal” in MANY parts of the country come mid May. Obviously the “hot spots”, and hot states (NY, NJ, CONN, & MASS) will take longer. One very interesting thing I saw on TV last night (and it wasn’t totally surprising), is that in NY state, with all those deaths, an overwhelming (over 90%) number of those dying had a hi risk/pre existing condition. 10 minutes ago, Back2Buff said: I seen some talk in another thread and decided to join to share my thoughts. There was talk about people being extremely sick ill back in December, and I can attest to this. It started for me on Black Friday with a sore throat that turned into a fever, body aches, and overall just feeling like junk. I however think this illness just weakened my immune system to get something way more seriously the first week in Dec. I still went to work while battling that cold, which was probably a mistake because it made me susceptible to other illnesses. I sit next another employee who's wife does international banking all over the country (including frequent long trips to China). She came back on thanksgiving to be home for the holidays. His whole family ended up getting sick, including him. I'm fairly confident I also had whatever his family had, because the entire office around him was ill too. It spread like something I have never seen. I ended up getting my parents ill too. The symptoms were much of the COVID-19. Started off with a massive headache (I never get headaches, but I couldn't even look my computer at work), then it went to my digestive track, next thing I know I have this fever and cough that would not go away. I usually workout everyday for about an hour and half after work but that was impossible (the exhaustion was immense). I would say for 2 and half full weeks I would wake up in legit puddles of sweat. I will never forget on Dec 13th (Friday the 13th), I thought I was a goner. My fever was so bad I was like almost blacking out. From there I had this cough and breathing issue that was so frustrating because there was like nothing to cough up. I coughed till at least mid January. My sister had this breathing machine for asthma, and I ended up doing that for about 3 weeks everyday. It was helping for a little, but had to do it about every 4 hours. This spread to my parents pretty bad and my mom ended up going to the doctors. The doctor told her it was probably pneumonia and gave her something (Doctor did very little because it has been so many weeks already since it started). Hands down the sickest I have ever been especially for how long it lasted. You would have days you felt ok, but then you would wake up the next day and have no idea how you are sicker than before. I consider myself a pretty healthy person too (kind of immune obsessed). I take all these precautions that the CDC wants now, every day (washing of hands, eating healthy, supplementary vitamins, holding large gatherings, etc.). This sickness in Dec was too strong though. Sorry it's long, but I seen some other posts on it and wanted to share what I experienced too. I did apply for that antibody test in that other thread. So you didn’t go to the doctor!? They certainly would have been able to tell you if it was a strain of the flu, or maybe pneumonia. Most likely would have given you tamiflu or similar too. Glad you & all your relatives made it through OK.
Back2Buff Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, John in Jax said: So you didn’t go to the doctor!? They certainly would have been able to tell you if it was a strain of the flu, or maybe pneumonia. Most likely would have given you tamiflu or similar too. Glad you & all your relatives made it through OK. I don't have a primary. Knock on wood, I consider myself a pretty healthy person. Other than that dumb stomach virus I got in 2018, last year was the first time I was sick for like 10 years. Everyday you just think tomorrow will be better. It took my mom 2 weeks just to get an appointment for her doctor because of how busy they were in December. The office told her it was a bad flu season (hmmmm, I wonder why). I also get the flu shot every year (along with me entire family), which normally helps. 1
Cripple Creek Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 https://www.foxnews.com/science/if-you-think-you-had-coronavirus-a-new-study-might-give-you-your-answer Edit: Email address to participate (can not have had a positive covid-19 disease test): clinicalstudiesunit@nih.gov They will test "up to" 10,000 people (presumabily they have some additional criteria, age, sex, where you live)
BillsFan4 Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 This is by far the most complete timeline of events I’ve seen yet, and they link to everything so you can verify their sources for yourself. 3
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 14, 2020 Author Posted April 14, 2020 4 hours ago, John in Jax said: All indications that I see are telling me that we’ll be back to “almost normal” in MANY parts of the country come mid May. Obviously the “hot spots”, and hot states (NY, NJ, CONN, & MASS) will take longer. What are "all indications" that you see? Here are two articles giving model projections for "peak" Covid-19. I am giving two sources perceived as different politically, quoting the same model https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/31/model-projects-when-the-coronavirus-will-peak-in-each-state/ There are several things to notice here: 1) Overall, the model is based on current social distancing and restrictions remaining in place throughout May. 2) 20 states are predicted to peak April 25 or later. These include much of the Heartland and much of the South. 3) Of those 20 states, 11 are predicted to peak after May 1, including Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, and Virginia (the last 4 are predicted to peak the 2nd week of May) 4) If you put a state into the actual model shown in the first link (scroll down a ways), note that it takes at least the same time to rise from 25% to peak, as it does to decline from peak to 25%. In other words, for those 20 states predicted to peak April 25 or later such as Florida (May 6 predicted peak), it will take until late May to decline to the point where the death rate/hospitalizations are back to wherever they are right now - ASSUMING social distancing remains in place. A return to "almost normal" while there are still active covid-19 cases in the community will produce a 2nd peak, based on experience with other epidemic disease. 2
Sundancer Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) US deaths today are likely to be near or to set a new high. [Edit--a new high by a lot.] What we are seeing everywhere is that there is no sharp decrease after reaching a high like many models predicted. This lingers a while. There is a good article in the NY Times about new treatment approaches in the last month. With 2M patients, we are learning quickly what works best. Ventilators are the last resort now, while other breathing methods are working well. Quote The biggest change: Instead of quickly sedating people who had shockingly low levels of oxygen and then putting them on mechanical ventilators, many doctors are now keeping patients conscious, having them roll over in bed, recline in chairs and continue to breathe on their own — with additional oxygen — for as long as possible. The idea is to get them off their backs and thereby make more lung available. A number of doctors are even trying patients on a special massage mattress designed for pregnant women because it has cutouts that ease the load on the belly and chest. 5 hours ago, John in Jax said: All indications that I see are telling me that we’ll be back to “almost normal” in MANY parts of the country come mid May. Obviously the “hot spots”, and hot states (NY, NJ, CONN, & MASS) will take longer. NY, NJ, PA, and much of the northeast is peaking now and may well open sooner, but an early opening just puts at risk anything we accomplished by shutting down in the first place. “Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won, that would be the greatest loss of all." - Donald Trump. Florida with a peak projected in early May (send a note of thanks to your moronic governor) and much higher death tolls still to come will take longer. Florida could end up with the 2nd highest death toll in the US by the time this is over, even more than NJ. Only MA will have a shot at beating it for #3, and it probably will (a really special note of thanks to that horrible governor, who left Boston open for 10(?) days after NYC shut down). The peaking of states at different times like this, so staggered, is a direct result of the failure of a national plan. We now will be in this much longer than we needed to because of the poor decision of some governors and the deference given to them. (I see that Hapless beat me to the punch on Florida.) Edited April 14, 2020 by Sundancer 1
John in Jax Posted April 14, 2020 Posted April 14, 2020 I've been watching the "models" very closely over the past month, and they continue to be wildly inaccurate (I've been checking the npr.org site daily). In fact, just a couple days ago, they were predicting that Florida's peak day would be on April 27, and just NOW I checked it, and the new date is May 6! So a jump of NINE days forward! WTH!? Also, still, as of today, no sick person in all of the USA has been denied a hospital bed or a ventilator (if needed). As far as FL goes though, it would not surprise me if the total deaths jump to put the state in the number 3 position behind NY & Conn (the latter is what the models are saying right now), because well, we have a TON of OLD people living in this state...we might even be the state with the most "old people" in the USA. But I guess we'll all see what happens. Y'all surely realize that there are plenty of states that have been affected by this in a very small way, and that they will be opening things up in May, right?
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