Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Figster]

42 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

The United States on Tuesday reported more than 1,800 coronavirus-related fatalities, a new one-day high.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/07/coronavirus-latest-news/

 

a Guardian report has a higher number

 

34 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

And On the Other Hand: 

"A key forecasting model used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August.  The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington had predicted a peak of 81,766 deaths in an update on Sunday.  Public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have previously estimated that as many as 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from the novel coronavirus."

 

So even though these numbers have been fluctuating WILDLY, this is GOOD news!

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491715-key-coronavirus-model-revised-downward-predicts-60k-deaths-in-us-by-august

I have mixed feelings on this because it remains to be seen how many new hot spots will occur or how bad they will get IMO.  Different living conditions like apartment or high rise where there are shared hallways, stairways, or elevators makes the spread of the virus very hard to control IMO. I also think with many of our essential business workers performing tasks without protection. Try as we might, I think the spread could continue at a slow pace across the US. 

 

By way of example lets say approx 10% of the US population ends up testing positive with Covid 19.  (roughly 32 million people)

 

1% death rate would equate to approx. 320, 000 lives lost.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Figster

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

And On the Other Hand: 

"A key forecasting model used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August.  The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington had predicted a peak of 81,766 deaths in an update on Sunday.  Public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have previously estimated that as many as 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from the novel coronavirus."

 

So even though these numbers have been fluctuating WILDLY (Remember when they said that 2.2 million people might die? LOL), this is GOOD news!

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491715-key-coronavirus-model-revised-downward-predicts-60k-deaths-in-us-by-august

 

ETA: I'm constantly amazed at how many folks in this forum are posting up so many negative, depressing, "doom & gloom" stories, and then actually attacking and/or laughing at others (with Emoji use) for being positive and optimistic.  Just astounding....

 

John, presumably your "LOL" represents a lack of understanding of the models on your part.

 

The "2.2 million might die" was the model where there were no interventions - no lockdown, or a short lockdown in a few hotspots lifted quickly

 

Fortunately, most states DID do the right, hard thing, and lock down, meaning the assumptions of that model were no longer applicable, thus the prediction is no longer predictable.

 

That doesn't mean that the model was faulty or humorous.

 

The model forecasting a peak of 60,000 deaths by early August is likewise based on assumptions.  I don't see them publicized, but they exist.  Perhaps the model forecasts that the restrictions will remain in place through August at a terrible cost to the economy and to most Americans and many businesses?  If that is the case, and the restrictions get lifted, then the assumptions (if that's what they were) would no longer apply, the model would be incorrect, and more Americans will die.

 

I also think that we still have very little idea what is going on with covid-19 in many areas with regard to community spread, even in areas with a very large % of negative tests such as Ithaca, NY.  I think that because while officially Tompkins County has 97 positive tests and 1,702 tests so 5.7% positive results, unofficially my daughter and her friends account for 8 cases of fever, body aches, headaches etc - potentially relevant symptoms - and 0 covid-19 tests performed.   I think the same thing is going on in little clusters all over the school.

 

Frankly, all the models are (relatively speaking) "low confidence" right now except for possibly Seattle/Washington State, because of lack of data and limited data.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

23 minutes ago, Figster said:

 

I have mixed feelings on this because it remains to be seen how many new hot spots will occur or how bad they will get IMO.  Different living conditions like apartment or high rise where there are shared hallways, stairways, or elevators makes the spread of the virus very hard to control IMO. I also think with many of our essential business workers performing tasks without protection. Try as we might, I think the spread could continue at a slow pace across the US.

 

 

 

Oh I agree .. .we just don't know.  

 

There are still too many unknowns to this whole thing 

 

how many people are not tested that have it

 

How many may have died w/o testing 

 

[K-9]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

John, presumably your "LOL" represents a lack of understanding of the models on your part.

 

The "2.2 million might die" was the model where there were no interventions - no lockdown, or a short lockdown in a few hotspots lifted quickly

 

Fortunately, most states DID do the right, hard thing, and lock down, meaning the assumptions of that model were no longer applicable, thus the prediction is no longer predictable.

 

That doesn't mean that the model was faulty or humorous.

 

The model forecasting a peak of 60,000 deaths by early August is likewise based on assumptions.  I don't see them publicized, but they exist.  Perhaps the model forecasts that the restrictions will remain in place through August at a terrible cost to the economy and to most Americans and many businesses?  If that is the case, and the restrictions get lifted, then the assumptions (if that's what they were) would no longer apply, the model would be incorrect, and more Americans will die.

 

I also think that we still have very little idea what is going on with covid-19 in many areas with regard to community spread, even in areas with a very large % of negative tests such as Ithaca, NY.  I think that because while officially Tompkins County has 97 positive tests and 1,702 tests so 5.7% positive results, unofficially my daughter and her friends account for 8 cases of fever, body aches, headaches etc - potentially relevant symptoms - and 0 covid-19 tests performed.   I think the same thing is going on in little clusters all over the school.

 

Frankly, all the models are (relatively speaking) "low confidence" right now except for possibly Seattle/Washington State, because of lack of data and limited data.

People who mock and belittle the modelers don’t know much. The single most difficult aspect to model was the voluntary participation of the American people to heed the advice of governors that locked states down and demanded social distancing. That speaks well of us as people. The modelers needed to make prediction ranges based on varying degrees of participation none the less. But blaming modelers, China, or the WHO is so much easier than actually trying to understand things on a deeper level.

 

 My main concern continues to be our continued vigilance. Good news often leads to complacency. We simply can’t afford that. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by K-9

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

have always said when i get sick i drink more cause alcohol kills germs!

I’ve been rolling through my supply of whiskey (as it’s the only thing keeping me sane after everyday of wrangling a 3 year old while wife is on one of her million daily calls). No Covid here! 

[John in Jax]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Kiwis are apparently quite sensible birds:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-zealand-isnt-just-flattening-the-curve-its-squashing-it/2020/04/07/6cab3a4a-7822-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

"It has been less than two weeks since New Zealand imposed a coronavirus lockdown so strict that swimming at the beach and hunting in bushland were banned."

....

"It took only 10 days for signs that the approach here — “elimination” rather than the “containment” goal of the United States and other Western countries — is working.

The number of new cases has fallen for two consecutive days, despite a huge increase in testing, with 54 confirmed or probable cases reported Tuesday. That means the number of people who have recovered, 65, exceeds the number of daily infections."

The reason that New Zealand jumped to a level 4 lockdown with only 102 cases? “We were hugely worried about what was happening in Italy and Spain,” said one of them, Stephen Tindall, founder of the Warehouse, New Zealand’s largest retailer. “If we didn’t shut down quickly enough, the pain was going to go on for a very long time,” he said in a phone interview. “It’s inevitable that we will have to shut down anyway, so we would rather it be sharp and short.”

 

We are doing the "pain going to go on for a very long time" in the US of A because we do not, even now, have a uniform lockdown.

 

 

 

 

Does the fact that they have LESS THAN 5 million people in the whole country mean anything? Is there anywhere in their country that approaches the population density close to what we have in our larger cities?

[Warcodered]

7 hours ago, John in Jax said:

Quoted from the story above: 
“I ran a floor of COVID-19 positive patients with severe symptoms. Our team used the combo of hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin and it seemed to help! Of the patients that I treated for these four days who where acutely ill — all ages and health conditions — most (loosely defined and footnoted) seemed to improve and were able to be discharged home. I can say that I transferred no one to the ICU but I sent many people home.“

So yet ANOTHER testimonial for hydroxychloroquine! That’s good news. I’m glad that doctors are using it, and didn’t listen to idiotic talking heads on TV who were badmouthing it for days on end.

Also from that article:

"I don’t claim to be any authority. Most of us only have observational, nonscientific analysis, but I had some positive results. Yes, I think I did."

"Progress? I sure hope so. Would they have responded without? I don’t know."

 

Confirmation Bias on this is a pretty serious thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/25/chloroquine-coronavirus-toxic-malaria/

 

I mean think about it most people that get this thing survive so if you give hydroxychloroquine to a bunch of people and most of them survive it doesn't mean a damn thing. You need an actual scientific study to determine how effective it is.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Warcodered

[Sundancer]

Yesterday's numbers in Spain and Italy continue the long, long, long period of level numbers in those countries. I thought the deaths would level and then drop. That hasn't happened. Level has come and hung on for almost 17 days now. The UK climbs. 

 

In the US, we had a giant spike yesterday to nearly but not quite 2000 deaths, and are well on our way to a similar outcome today. It was a broad jump with many states showing big leaps. CT, MI, MA, LA, IL, GA all popping up as it appears NY and NJ will not be the only hotspots as we had hoped. GA and MA, which closed very late, have been surging. 

 

 

[Brit]

45 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Does the fact that they have LESS THAN 5 million people in the whole country mean anything? Is there anywhere in their country that approaches the population density close to what we have in our larger cities?

The city of Auckland - the urban area rather than the district (which is larger) - has one third of the total population of New Zealand. 

 

Yes they are going to have less cases as their population is smaller. But they acted far quicker than other governments and are already reaping the rewards.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Brit

[John in Jax]

12 minutes ago, Brit said:

The city of Auckland - the urban area rather than the district (which is larger) - has one third of the total population of New Zealand. 

 

Yes they are going to have less cases as their population is smaller. But they acted far quicker than other governments and are already reaping the rewards.

 

 

So Auckland has about 1.6 million people, and NY city alone has about 8.7 million people. OK then.

15 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

Yesterday's numbers in Spain and Italy continue the long, long, long period of level numbers in those countries. I thought the deaths would level and then drop. That hasn't happened. Level has come and hung on for almost 17 days now. The UK climbs. 

 

In the US, we had a giant spike yesterday to nearly but not quite 2000 deaths, and are well on our way to a similar outcome today. It was a broad jump with many states showing big leaps. CT, MI, MA, LA, IL, GA all popping up as it appears NY and NJ will not be the only hotspots as we had hoped. GA and MA, which closed very late, have been surging. 

 

 

How come Florida’s numbers aren’t exploding like everybody in here thought they would, you know, what with that irresponsible Governor who waited forever to close down the beaches and bars? In addition, Florida has TONS of old/high risk people living here; that can’t help matters. I’m confused.

[Sundancer]

14 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

How come Florida’s numbers aren’t exploding like everybody in here thought they would, you know, what with that irresponsible Governor who waited forever to close down the beaches and bars? In addition, Florida has TONS of old/high risk people living here; that can’t help matters. I’m confused.

 

People were saying the same thing about Georgia and Boston 2 days ago and now they doubled in 2 days. 

 

Maybe Florida will get lucky and not follow the pattern of every other populous state besides California but you might want to calm your tone on that point for the moment. 

 

Edit: Florida has the 6th (or 10th depending on the source) most deaths in the US so far and climbing. More than Pennsylvania and it shut down 2 weeks after most of PA, so it's not exactly going swimmingly. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Sundancer

[Gray Beard]

50 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

Yesterday's numbers in Spain and Italy continue the long, long, long period of level numbers in those countries. I thought the deaths would level and then drop. That hasn't happened. Level has come and hung on for almost 17 days now. The UK climbs. 

 

In the US, we had a giant spike yesterday to nearly but not quite 2000 deaths, and are well on our way to a similar outcome today. It was a broad jump with many states showing big leaps. CT, MI, MA, LA, IL, GA all popping up as it appears NY and NJ will not be the only hotspots as we had hoped. GA and MA, which closed very late, have been surging. 

 

 

I feel that these statistics are very misleading. New York has tested a much higher number of people.  The official case numbers and death numbers are based on people who were tested.  More people need to be tested, and maybe there should be a category of “probable” cases or deaths, based on symptoms rather than test results.  The overall death statistics for this year compared to previous years paint a much more grim picture, in Europe as well as in the US.  It’s also hard to know how many cases there really are since so many of the people who get it never even tell a doctor, let alone get tested.  I know we sound like a broken record, but until the antibody tests are universally available, the true nature of the beast will not be accurately understood. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

An employee of cake shop prepares chocolate Easter bunnies with masks in Lykovrisi, northern Athens, Greece, on Wednesday, April 8, 2020. Cake shops and bakeries in Greece have remained open during a strict circulation ban in Greece to contain the spread of the COVID-19, but authorities have intensified a crackdown on lockdown violations ahead of Easter, which is celebrated by Orthodox Christians on April 19. Greece's Orthodox Church says it will not permit any public gatherings for Easter services. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

[John in Jax]

17 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

I feel that these statistics are very misleading. New York has tested a much higher number of people.  The official case numbers and death numbers are based on people who were tested.  More people need to be tested, and maybe there should be a category of “probable” cases or deaths, based on symptoms rather than test results.  The overall death statistics for this year compared to previous years paint a much more grim picture, in Europe as well as in the US.  It’s also hard to know how many cases there really are since so many of the people who get it never even tell a doctor, let alone get tested.  I know we sound like a broken record, but until the antibody tests are universally available, the true nature of the beast will not be accurately understood. 

Another fly in the ointment is that in some places, they are falsely attributing deaths to this virus when that is not the “real” cause. Dr. Birx admitted this fact yesterday.

 

ETA: Here’s a good story that talks about these matters:

https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

Edited April 8, 2020 by John in Jax

[Sundancer]

18 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

I feel that these statistics are very misleading. New York has tested a much higher number of people.  The official case numbers and death numbers are based on people who were tested.  More people need to be tested, and maybe there should be a category of “probable” cases or deaths, based on symptoms rather than test results.  The overall death statistics for this year compared to previous years paint a much more grim picture, in Europe as well as in the US.  It’s also hard to know how many cases there really are since so many of the people who get it never even tell a doctor, let alone get tested.  I know we sound like a broken record, but until the antibody tests are universally available, the true nature of the beast will not be accurately understood. 

That’s why I focus on deaths as the most reliable indicator of progress. It’s a lagging indicator for sure but the most accurate measure of progress we have. 

6 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Another fly in the ointment is that in some places, they are falsely attributing deaths to this virus when that is not the “real” cause. Dr. Birx admitted this fact yesterday.

And they are undercounting deaths too where people die and they never tested them alive, and they don’t test the corpse to save a test. Still, It is our cleanest number. 
 

Hospitalizations were an ok measure but so many people are being told to stay home that in places over their capacity, that number is grossly underreported. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Sundancer

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

That’s why I focus on deaths as the most reliable indicator of progress. It’s a lagging indicator for sure but the most accurate measure of progress we have. 

I’d also include hospitalizations as a reliable indicator.

[Gray Beard]

8 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Another fly in the ointment is that in some places, they are falsely attributing deaths to this virus when that is not the “real” cause. Dr. Birx admitted this fact yesterday.

 

6 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

That’s why I focus on deaths as the most reliable indicator of progress. It’s a lagging indicator for sure but the most accurate measure of progress we have. 

And they are undercounting deaths too where people die and they Never tested them alive, and they don’t test the body. It is our cleanest number. 
 

Hospitalizations was ok but so many people are being told to stay home that in places over their capacity, that number is grossly underreported. 

I’ve seen news articles that say deaths from drug overdoses, and from heart attacks have increased.  Psychological stress?  A side effect of clogged lungs and unrelenting coughs?  Something else?

 

Those deaths won’t get classified as covid19 deaths, but in an indirect way maybe they are.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Gray Beard

[plenzmd1]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Another fly in the ointment is that in some places, they are falsely attributing deaths to this virus when that is not the “real” cause. Dr. Birx admitted this fact yesterday.

 

ETA: Here’s a good story that talks about these matters:

https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

 

The major complaint of that interesting article seems to be a death is listed as covid-19 death even if the patient is "already dying of other causes".  But what does that mean, exactly?  My mother has end-stage congestive heart failure.  That means she's expected to die - but when?  She could live another 5 months, or another 5 years.  On the other hand, if she contracts an infection such as influenza or covid-19 and dies from it, that will be her cause of death. 

 

That's how it works.  That's always been how it works.  It's actually a bit different than saying "they are falsely attributing deaths to this virus when it's not the real cause". 
I hope that's not what Birx actually said. 

 

There's a very good case being made by an Italian epidemiologist that the official Italian covid-19 death rate is probably under-counting actual covid-19 mortality by a factor of 2-4x.  The argument is made on statistical grounds, by looking at the seasonal death rate last year and previous year, and comparing to this year.  Even when covid-19 deaths are subtracted out, the seasonal death rate is still hugely higher.

 

If someone dies from covid-19 like symptoms but was not tested, they are not counted as a covid-19 death.  So it works both ways.