Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 Good Free article in Washington Post this am. Summarizes upcoming publication in NEJM and Lancet on Coronavirus viability. -CV may be viable for 3 hrs in aerosol and 24 hrs-3 days on surface -Viable virus on a surface does not mean that it remains just as infectious. Most virus particles degrade in a matter of minutes or hours outside a living host, and the quantity of infectious particles goes down exponentially over time -Emphasizes person-to-person contact is considered main transmission route at this time -Ill people infectious some period before symptoms - 1 day certainly -Recovered people may shed virus for 20 days (8-37) - unclear how infectious at this point 1 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said: Humor: I wish I could double ? this. Sooooooooooo true! 1
Tenhigh Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Good Free article in Washington Post this am. Summarizes upcoming publication in NEJM and Lancet on Coronavirus viability. -CV may be viable for 3 hrs in aerosol and 24 hrs-3 days on surface -Viable virus on a surface does not mean that it remains just as infectious. Most virus particles degrade in a matter of minutes or hours outside a living host, and the quantity of infectious particles goes down exponentially over time -Emphasizes person-to-person contact is considered main transmission route at this time -Ill people infectious some period before symptoms - 1 day certainly -Recovered people may shed virus for 20 days (8-37) - unclear how infectious at this point Why do you think the bold/underlined isn't a little more precise yet? I get the aerosol being difficult to test, but the surface test seems like it could be banged out pretty easily, no?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tenhigh said: Why do you think the bold/underlined isn't a little more precise yet? I get the aerosol being difficult to test, but the surface test seems like it could be banged out pretty easily, no? I'm sorry, I wrote imprecisely. They tested different surfaces. The viability varied per surface - "up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on 36 cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" - but keep in mind all these times are a median time for finding viable virus, with some tests shorter and some longer and probably also impacted by factors they didn't test (exposure to sunlight, what is the temperature, etc etc). Biologics are just variable like that. Also keep in mind that as above, most virus degrades rapidly so the amount of virus per time degrades, that's just the time they still found some viable virus. Person to person contact (within 3 feet) is still considered main transmission route, I think the point is just "avoid people you misanthrope!" can still result in viral exposure for high-risk groups. 1
row_33 Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tenhigh said: Why do you think the bold/underlined isn't a little more precise yet? I get the aerosol being difficult to test, but the surface test seems like it could be banged out pretty easily, no? they are doing their best
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: So you're saying hoarding toilet paper will spread disease (by making you into an irresistable Chick Magnet)?
row_33 Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So you're saying hoarding toilet paper will spread disease (by making you into an irresistable Chick Magnet)? worked for “visiting” Americans in Western Europe 75 years ago, a few told me all about it.... 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Here's one from @Jauronimo via the Shoutbox. https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/03/11/i-had-covid-19-and-heres-my-story-woman-shares-details-of-coronavirus-experience/ Note that the only reason these people learned they had Covid, was because the Fred Hutch flu study gang "had it" with CDC testing delays, brewed up their own test, and applied it to all the samples they had. When they "whistleblower" shared with CDC "hey, we're finding positive Covid tests without foreign travel or known contact, community transmission" they were told to....stop testing and stop talking about ithttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html Note symptoms described and duration. What? Why in the world were they told to stop testing and stop talking about it?! Wouldn't they want to do More testing?
Simon Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 18 hours ago, teef said: My wife just got back from bjs...there was literally no meat left. Are we still doing phrasing? 5
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 Source: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441?fbclid=IwAR30K7azXhGLIEvkBdR7wlkqKbVmoRsOaQOQcTMwkKTQPvTtkYghEvGbQbA Many countries such as UK, US, EU are likely not doing enough testing but I think the trajectory is clear. My take-home point is threefold: 1) We are not on some magic island, we are in the same boat. We are on the same trajectory as other countries in the world, and unless we want to be where Italy is ~2 weeks from now, we MUST act immediately. Individuals must take responsibility for "social distancing". Do not panic, but do not be "That Guy" who feels he should go about life as usual, fly off to go on vacation, dress up as a Smurf to attend a Guinness World Record attempt. Stay home from clubs and concerts. Do not B word if your community cancels the St Pats parade - call up the city and B word if it does not. 2) If you think you will get a mild disease like flu, Good for You. You will be infectious 1-2 days before you show any symptoms. Stay home anyway - as an Italian doctor said "Have Mercy for the older people and the chronically ill people you Can Exterminate". 1
DrDawkinstein Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 47 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: What? Why in the world were they told to stop testing and stop talking about it?! Wouldn't they want to do More testing? The answer to this would take this thread into PPP territory.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said: The answer to this would take this thread into PPP territory. Short answer: high numbers are bad for re-election. I'll leave it at that. To be fair to the CDC, they do have a couple of legitimate issues that extend beyond electability. One is: is the test accurate? It's a home-brewed test by a group of very competent researchers, but the CDC does have an interest in assuring accuracy Two: there is a legitimate issue of informed consent. The patients from whom the swabs were collected consented to flu testing, not Covid testing. Three: the researchers were testing for an emerging pandemic disease in a facility not set up and licensed as a clinical lab All of these are issues that could have been addressed without shutting it down and eventually were. I do not feel the CDC chose the wisest path for the public interest in this instance, but neither can their concerns be dismissed as entirely political.
John in Jax Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 Thinking outside the box about this pandemic, until they come up with an effective vaccine, and have enough doses of that vaccine for millions & millions of people, our way of life is going to be severely harmed/different. So they’re shutting everything down NOW to “slow the spread.” But they are NOT going to completely eradicate it, so in a month or two, when they start having sports events, concerts, & large gatherings, when they start letting people from other countries come here, what’s to stop the virus from amping up again, and growing to as bad as it is right now? 1
DrDawkinstein Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: To be fair to the CDC, they do have a couple of legitimate issues that extend beyond electability. One is: is the test accurate? It's a home-brewed test by a group of very competent researchers, but the CDC does have an interest in assuring accuracy Two: there is a legitimate issue of informed consent. The patients from whom the swabs were collected consented to flu testing, not Covid testing. Three: the researchers were testing for an emerging pandemic disease in a facility not set up and licensed as a clinical lab All of these are issues that could have been addressed without shutting it down and eventually were. I do not feel the CDC chose the wisest path for the public interest in this instance, but neither can their concerns be dismissed as entirely political. And to be even more fair to the CDC, they recently had their budget slashed significantly and are trying to do way more than theyve ever had to, with far fewer resources. 1
BillsFan4 Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: The answer to this would take this thread into PPP territory. Sorry about that. That was not my intention to turn this political in any way. I was just shocked to read that.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 13, 2020 Author Posted March 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, John in Jax said: Thinking outside the box about this pandemic, until they come up with an effective vaccine, and have enough doses of that vaccine for millions & millions of people, our way of life is going to be severely harmed/different. So they’re shutting everything down NOW to “slow the spread.” But they are NOT going to completely eradicate it, so in a month or two, when they start having sports events, concerts, & large gatherings, when they start letting people from other countries come here, what’s to stop the virus from amping up again, and growing to as bad as it is right now? The short answer is that spread of an epidemic disease will naturally slow once enough of the population has been infected and recovered (so they are out and about again). We really need to uncover an epidemiologist lurking here to go with our virologists, because they could give you a better answer. As I understand it, once enough people have had the disease, the basic reproduction number (how many people get sick from contact with a sick person when everyone is susceptible) is replaced by "effective reproduction number". This is the "herd immunity effect". Just back of the envelope, if R0 (basic reproduction number) is 2.2 (estimate for Covid19), but now 35% of the population has had the disease and recovered, the effective reproduction number will be 2.2 x (1-.35) or 1.4, which is just a little bit higher than seasonal flu (1.3). So some people will still get seriously sick, but there is no longer the concern about people who become severely ill overwhelming the health care system and having people die from want of available care, which is what we are trying to "flatten the curve" and avoid. Here is an article that seems pretty good on a quick read: https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/research-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory 10 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Sorry about that. That was not my intention to turn this political in any way. I was just shocked to read that. No, no, it was a fair question and I tried to give a reasonably objective answer. I wish some aspects of our National response to this were different, but It Is What It Is now, and as I see it, it is up to individual people to educate themselves and make responsible choices. 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 @Hapless Bills Fan Do you know or have read how many test kits are available to the public?
teef Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Simon said: Are we still doing phrasing? this i enjoyed. 1
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