Sherlock Holmes Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Natural mutation. Very good evidence. This guy is a computational virologist at Fred Hutchinson Institute in Seattle and he knows his *****. Natural evolution? So according to Bedford when did Coronavirus come into existence? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Sherlock Holmes said: Natural evolution? So according to Bedford when did Coronavirus come into existence? What came first the corona or the virus? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 Need some Humor here: When do the Coronavirus symptoms begin to show up? Right off the bat I'm here all week. Try the veal, and tip your server. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Testing is a problem. S. Korea can now do 15,000 tests/day and has drive-through testing stations. Here's a couple articles on US testing capacity and numbers:https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/were-behind-curve-us-hospitals-confront-challenges-large-scale-coronavirus-testinghttps://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-cdc-us-facilities-lack-testing-capacity-to-id-cases-2020-3?op=1 We have tested <5000 people currently. We are not currently testing and contact tracing people who show up in hospital with atypical pneumonia but have not traveled or had known contact with someone who has covid19. Just to point out the limitations of this strategy (from the link above)At a White House press conference on Tuesday afternoon, Vice President Mike Pence, who heads the country’s coronavirus task force, said that by the end of the week, there will be more than 5 million tests available and that industry is ramping up production of even more. Pence stressed that the government has also removed criteria that initially restricted testing to people who had traveled to China, come in contact with a confirmed case, or had severe symptoms. “As the president said, anyone who on a doctor's order wants to be tested, can, at a doctor's indication, be tested now,” Pence said. It would be amazing if we actually go from 7,500 to 5 million tests available that quickly, but previously it was said 1.5 million and then came out we're far short of that, so color me "reserving judgement". Also note the initial restriction on only testing people who had traveled or come into unprotected contact with a confirmed case. Here's the thing - we have many people who do not have medical insurance, or whose medical insurance has high deductible and substantial copay to visit a doctor. If we really want to understand the scope of the problem we have, and contain it appropriately - does it make sense to restrict testing to "a doctor's order" or "a doctor's indication"? We need to just TEST PEOPLE. Do not make doctors into testing gatekeepers. At worst, ask people who show up to be tested a brief questionaire as to why they want to be tested and test everyone with fever (the most common symptom) or who has contact with someone with symptoms (not confirmed disease) Test rationing is not how to contain a disease - unless, of course, the number of tests and the personnel qualified to perform the testing are in short supply. Which, if there really are gonna be 5 million tests, would not be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know about kits missing components for comprehensive testing, but there was an error in the first set of kits distributed which caused a delay. What is puzzling to me is why we don't adopt the technology already developed and use-vetted in some other countries - China, Taiwan, S. Korea. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-covid-19-response-hurt-by-shortage-testing-components/5013586002/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 29 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said: Natural evolution? So according to Bedford when did Coronavirus come into existence? "a single zoonotic spillover event into the human population in Wuhan between mid-Nov and mid-Dec and sustained human-to-human transmission from this point" per Bedford. Pickybutt correction - Coronavirus is a whole group of viruses, including a bunch in birds and mammals and several that cause cold-like illnesses in humans. So we're talking about Covid19, the specific coronavirus responsible for the viral illness first described in Wuhan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: "a single zoonotic spillover event into the human population in Wuhan between mid-Nov and mid-Dec and sustained human-to-human transmission from this point" per Bedford. Pickybutt correction - Coronavirus is a whole group of viruses, including a bunch in birds and mammals and several that cause cold-like illnesses in humans. So we're talking about Covid19, the specific coronavirus responsible for the viral illness first described in Wuhan. Interesting, so a single zoonotic spillover eh? The Bat... I understand that theory. But I fail to see where natural evolution plays a role in a single zoonotic spillover event. Are you familiar with Dr. Leonard Horowitz? Are you familiar with his book Emerging Viruses? Would love to hear your scientific opinion Dr. Hapless Edited March 11, 2020 by Sherlock Holmes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: We do know it's not a virus that will travel long distances and stay airborne for long times as Measles will. We do know it's not a virus that resists alcohol-based products like Norovirus. We do know it IS a virus which can survive on surfaces up to three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaoulDuke79 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 8 hours ago, /dev/null said: Social distancing I've been trying to practice that for years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaoulDuke79 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Tom Hank & Rita Wilson test positive https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadline.com/2020/03/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-test-positive-coronavirus-elvis-presley-movie-1202880431/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 NBA Suspends entire season after player tests positive for Virus. Two teams in quarantine currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 I would be pissed if I was the Lakers.... Golden State brought in the coronavirus to mess with LeBron and the Lakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 4 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said: Interesting, so a single zoonotic spillover eh? The Bat... I understand that theory. But I fail to see where natural evolution plays a role in a single zoonotic spillover event. Easy-peasy. As I explained above, RNA viruses are slobs. They mutate all the time - about 2 viable mutations a month or so, maybe more if they’re cycling more often. Some mutations have little or no effect. All it takes is a single mutation at the wrong place that allows the virus to propagate human to human. Has happened before. Will happen again with different viruses. It can be something simple - a change in amino acid charge that makes the virus suspend in the air better and travel further. Now it can infect human to human, and spread further than animal to human. Maybe while spreading human to human it picks up a second mutation a few infections later that makes it more efficient at binding to human lung receptors. Then the virus with the successful mutation is more successful so it spreads more widely. Quote Are you familiar with Dr. Leonard Horowitz? Are you familiar with his book Emerging Viruses? Would love to hear your scientific opinion Dr. Hapless Not familiar but will look for book and read, sounds interesting. Unless he turns out to annoy me greatly in which case I will hurl the book across the room with great force. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 This is a bit emotional, but I think it makes the point and from a doc in Italy at this time, give some slack for a little emotion. The underlying epidemiology is sound. https://apple.news/AzwFk-LX9SCy75Oa9JAlG-g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Easy-peasy. As I explained above, RNA viruses are slobs. They mutate all the time - about 2 viable mutations a month or so, maybe more if they’re cycling more often. Some mutations have little or no effect. All it takes is a single mutation at the wrong place that allows the virus to propagate human to human. Has happened before. Will happen again with different viruses. It can be something simple - a change in amino acid charge that makes the virus suspend in the air better and travel further. Now it can infect human to human, and spread further than animal to human. Maybe while spreading human to human it picks up a second mutation a few infections later that makes it more efficient at binding to human lung receptors. Then the virus with the successful mutation is more successful so it spreads more widely. Not familiar but will look for book and read, sounds interesting. Unless he turns out to annoy me greatly in which case I will hurl the book across the room with great force. So basically what is known as Transduction... Now here is what is interesting to me... I'm of the thinking that viruses are non-living. How do we explain this? They are proteins! So essentially broken down they are chains of amino acids. So if they aren't alive it's not like they can "attack." They wait for the "opportune" moment to seize control of a cell which I believe can only occur in a damaged cell. So theoretically a person with all healthy cells could be a carrier of a virus but unaffected as they offer no replication opportunities for the protein. Therefore to become sickened by the virus you must have degenerated enough cells somewhere in you body for the virus to be able to break dormancy and establish a foothold on. Therefore, theoretically, regenerating your cells would offer a "cure" against a virus and all viruses in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) This is a very informative and eye opening interview with an infectious disease expert with 40+ years experience. He’s been right on with all of his predications about COVID19 so far. I hope he’s not right this time. Here’s Michael Osterholm’s bio/credentials for anyone curious - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm and here’s a link to the full length interview - https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw Edited March 12, 2020 by BillsFan4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 And now it’s confirmed in the Rochester area. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 To all the doubters and the "It's no big deal" people Come to my office complex and see it first hand. I'll gladly give you a tour of the areas CLOSED for CLEANSING until Monday Mar 16, 2020. You'll feel a whole lot different when it becomes personal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: To all the doubters and the "It's no big deal" people Come to my office complex and see it first hand. I'll gladly give you a tour of the areas CLOSED for CLEANSING until Monday Mar 16, 2020. You'll feel a whole lot different when it becomes personal. anyone who thinks this isn't a big deal at this point either doesn't understand what's happening or refuses to even try to understand what's happening. I have a feeling things are going to change for me drastically over the next two weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, teef said: anyone who thinks this isn't a big deal at this point either doesn't understand what's happening or refuses to even try to understand what's happening. I have a feeling things are going to change for me drastically over the next two weeks. I hope things go well for you. Can you do "dental checkups" via Skype? Edited March 12, 2020 by SlimShady'sGhost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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