Spotrac Guesses on Potential Bills extensions (edited title)

[BillsFan17]

13 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I trust McDermotts judgement and eye on defense.

 

Dont think they priories Milano as much as they do Edmunds, Tre and Dawkins. IMO he will be asking for a significant pay raise and they'll be able to find a cheaper option who can fill his role via FA or draft. 

When I see players like Hyde and Poyer talk about how Milano makes their jobs easier,  in turn allowing them to make plays... combined with Milano having the numbers/film to back it up. You know they arent just pumping tires, its genuine, and I think we saw the drop off in the D when Milano was injured.

 

Point is, I'm not about to take this defense for granted, and players like Milano are key kogs. They are a testament to drafting well and developing talent. I dont think hes as easily replaced as some other clearly feel he is.

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll be surprised if they extend him this offseason. Thinking about players like Sammy Watkins and Shaq Lawson this regime's MO is not to extend players early. They will wait until Milano proves he is worth it. Based on last year I don't think he's met that standard just yet. They use contract years to drive players to be their best. And I tend to agree with Bandit that his role is not particularly difficult to replace if it comes to that.

Neither one of those players warranted an extension.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

If Milano thinks he’s getting Moseley money he’s nuts.

 

Zero chance he gets that kind of money from us. If we have to let Milano walk in exchange for paying a top tier pass rusher like Clowney, so be it. I like Milano a lot but he's not a necessary piece IMO.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll be surprised if they extend him this offseason. Thinking about players like Sammy Watkins and Shaq Lawson this regime's MO is not to extend players early. They will wait until Milano proves he is worth it. Based on last year I don't think he's met that standard just yet. They use contract years to drive players to be their best. And I tend to agree with Bandit that his role is not particularly difficult to replace if it comes to that.

 

With respect: I don't think we know what this regime's MO with players it has "drafted and developed" is, yet.  We are only just now coming up on the first players they drafted due to be extended/signed.  The point I was making, though, is you were giving an option that doesn't exist.  We either extend him OR we wait until we see how he plays this season and attempt to re-sign him (with FA looming).   But we don't do both.

 

I don't agree with you or Bandit.  More to the point, I don't think what you and Bandit say aligns with how Beane and McDermott appear to view Milano. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Does signing a zone CB to a 5 year 80+ mil contract help or hurt the Bills? I feel like that contract should be 5 years 68 mil at its highest. 

[Happy]

14 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Does signing a zone CB to a 5 year 80+ mil contract help or hurt the Bills? I feel like that contract should be 5 years 68 mil at its highest. 

 

I think a 5 yr, $80M + contract is a little high for a zone CB, but looking at the numbers you suggested, is there much of a difference between 5/80 ($16M AAV) and 5/68 ($13.6 AAV)?

 

The Bills probably need to give him the higher figure due to the type of defense they run; creating a hole by letting Tre seek a better offer (which he would probably get) is going to hurt filling other holes up front.

[colin]

What is an about average starting WLB who plays 3 downs and is like 26 worth?  I figure it's about 7MM or 8MM a year.

 

Milano is above average as a pass rusher, i think about average as a run defender (but our D has guys making more difficult plays in space or crashing down, so maybe you notch him a bit higher) and way above average as a pass defender.  I'd say that puts him at like 11-13MM.

 

Where you run into big numbers is when you get to the value positions, as was mentioned above (although it was to downplay Milano's value, which I disagree with).  A QB who can line up and start, not a good one, just one who can, is about 18-20MM.  An LT who isn't raw hot garbage in pass pro is like 9 or 10MM.  A borderline starting CB over the age of 30 is like 6MM, a decent starter is like 10MM.

 

I think Milano is still getting better and 11-13 wouldn't be a problem.

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I think a 5 yr, $80M + contract is a little high for a zone CB, but looking at the numbers you suggested, is there much of a difference between 5/80 ($16M AAV) and 5/68 ($13.6 AAV)?

 

The Bills probably need to give him the higher figure due to the type of defense they run; creating a hole by letting Tre seek a better offer (which he would probably get) is going to hurt filling other holes up front.

He might get a Josh Norman type deal which would be around 80+ now. The problem with paying a Zone CB that much money is that I feel like the scheme and coaching accounts for a lot. Where a shut down man CB is basically shutting down the other teams biggest threat. Bill Belicheat is basically telling Gilmore to follow Hopkins and shut him down. If your CB can do that then you pay them the big 5 80+ mil contract. I feel like the true value of a good zone CB is around 5/55mil to 5/65mil

[MAJBobby]

18 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

good with the projections on Tre and Dion. I don’t think Milano is a 12M a year player. I would think 4 years 36M. With the 9M AAV is more in line 

[noacls]

If that's what 58 cost, Bye !

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The points are:

1) of those 8 names, I believe 4 became starters immediately.  At least 1 guy on that list didn't start consistently until his 3rd season.  And some of them started on pretty poor D's.

2) in that time period, 26 LB were drafted in the 5th.  So 4/26 would be a 15% chance of replacing Milano, and that would be accepting that the other 3 actually have his skill set.  If you want to argue for 8, 30% - 1 in 3 shot, again, arguing that the other 7 actually do have his skill set and actually did come in and contribute immediately at the same level (debateable)

It wasn’t an exhaustive list, and the point wasn’t that a team should restrict themselves to the 5th round for a Will.

 

If it was a difficult position to fill, you probably wouldn’t see a guy like (just as an example) Cole Holcomb come in as a 5th round rookie and have nearly identical stats to Milano. Same goes with Dre Greenlaw.

 

You also wouldn’t see a middling FA like Tahir Whitehead pop into a new scheme and put up similar numbers than Milano.

 

The Redskins plucked Jon Bostic off the street in April after he was released from Pittsburgh, and he had a very similar year to Milano.

 

It’s a relatively easy position to fill

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

How many straw men can you stack?

 

First the absurd Brady comment, now a ridiculous Kyle Williams reference?

 

And to top it off a nebulous “those guys aren’t as good” generalization!

 

Why don’t you compare the tackle stats, passer rating in coverage and get back to me on that.

 

While you’re at it, maybe you can accurately summarize my opinion on re-signing Milano? Because you seem confused about it.

 

You know what? Don’t bother, as I really should just leave this alone.

Who knew Milano’s entire family was Two Bills Drive posters? Haha

 

I really think Beane will put a number on Milano and not go over it. 
 

Yes the fact linebackers can be found in rounds 3-5 absolutely comes into negotiations. I have heard people mention V. Joseph as a possible Milano replacement. 

 

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Who knew Milano’s entire family was Two Bills Drive posters? Haha

 

I really think Beane will put a number on Milano and not go over it. 
 

Yes the fact linebackers can be found in rounds 3-5 absolutely comes into negotiations. I have heard people mention V. Joseph as a possible Milano replacement. 

 

That’s probably the best way to say it; it’s a factor in determining his value, which Beane will not go above.

 

I figure to have offended fewer fellow fans if I phrased it in fairer fashion.

#alliterationforthewin

[FLFan]

15 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Contract seems a little high for Milano. Very good player but I'm not sure he's irreplaceable. We need better depth at the linebacker position though. 

Anytime he has been out with injury, the Bills D was noticeably weaker.  He is not easily replaced, and in fact, is a budding star getting significant notice around the league.  They cannot afford to let him walk.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

14 minutes ago, FLFan said:

Anytime he has been out with injury, the Bills D was noticeably weaker.  He is not easily replaced, and in fact, is a budding star getting significant notice around the league.  They cannot afford to let him walk.  

Our LB depth is weak.

[Buffalo Junction]

4 hours ago, dpberr said:

I'm ok with Milano and White extensions.  Not ok with the Dawkins extension.  

 

I think Milano is a fine LB, with room for more.  With corporate knowledge and experience in a consistent system, LBs play even faster, which makes them even faster on the field.  That's really the core principle in Pittsburgh - it's not that they draft blue chip talent all the time, it's that their players keep learning in the same system year after year, and don't have to think as much in the game.

 

Dawkins is a good LT.  I don't know, if as a team, you extend the good LT at that price point. Do you really foresee him becoming a great LT?   

I’m not sure that it matters. The cap goes up every year. Over the course of a five year contract “great” LTs end up getting paid as “good” LTs. It’s a supply problem, and if you have an above average to good LT you pay him the going rate. The alternative is a bad LT or unknown that could get your QB injured. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

It wasn’t an exhaustive list, and the point wasn’t that a team should restrict themselves to the 5th round for a Will.

 

If it was a difficult position to fill, you probably wouldn’t see a guy like (just as an example) Cole Holcomb come in as a 5th round rookie and have nearly identical stats to Milano. Same goes with Dre Greenlaw.

 

You also wouldn’t see a middling FA like Tahir Whitehead pop into a new scheme and put up similar numbers than Milano.

 

The Redskins plucked Jon Bostic off the street in April after he was released from Pittsburgh, and he had a very similar year to Milano.

 

It’s a relatively easy position to fill

 

Bandit: My point (and maybe a few other peoples) is that you keep asserting it's a "relatively easy position to fill" without adequately defending that position - even whilst complaining about other people making undefended assertions.

 

Cherry picking a few guys who come in and contribute immediately as Milano did, doesn't affect the fundamental point: there are a LOT of LB drafted in the late rounds.

 

If one or four or eight out of 26 contribute immediately, you're still talking no better than 3 out of 10.  Basic math says if you want to be ~90% sure you got a guy who can contribute, you need to draft something like 6 of 'em [(7/10)^6]. 

 

If you broaden the rounds later from the 5th, you get into a larger pool of draftees and a lower percentage of success.  If you broaden the rounds earlier, into the first 3 or 4, now you're getting into the "money" rounds where players are expected to contribute.  Now you're using draft picks to backfill holes created by letting proven NFL-quality talent we've developed walk instead of using picks to improve the team or bring in depth - a fair complaint about previous Bills FO.  Sure, every scout thinks he's a draft day genius but as one goes later into the draft, the variables stack up and the certainties decrease.

 

This is also a point I thought you were aware of, but McDermott and Frazier's defense really counts on everyone doing their 1/11.  When looking at an RB or WR, one can look at how many yards he gains, passes he catches, and TDs he scores vs how many fumbles.  On defense, one can't as easily look at some bare stats like tackles made and compare player performance between teams.   I think you know that when you're not entrenched into trying to defend a relatively extreme position you've taken.

 

[FLFan]

38 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Our LB depth is weak.

Yes we need better depth, but you do not replace a premium player with depth. They won the late round lottery with Milano and should make every attempt to keep him, instead of hoping to draft a replacement as good.  Spend  that draft choice where we do not already have  quality starters.  I just find it odd that so many fans do not seem to recognize the level of player we have. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Who knew Milano’s entire family was Two Bills Drive posters? Haha

 

I really think Beane will put a number on Milano and not go over it. 
 

Yes the fact linebackers can be found in rounds 3-5 absolutely comes into negotiations. I have heard people mention V. Joseph as a possible Milano replacement. 

 

 

Beane will undoubtedly put a number (with some room to change) on Milano as with everyone, but that number may be higher than some here seem to believe.

 

People can mention whomever they like as a possible Milano replacement, but Joseph has yet to play a snap in the regular season.  The take "He was expected to battle for a depth linebacker position and a special teams spot, before injuring his shoulder in the final preseason game" is correct to date.

[FLFan]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Beane will undoubtedly put a number (with some room to change) on Milano as with everyone, but that number may be higher than some here seem to believe.

 

People can mention whomever they like as a possible Milano replacement, but Joseph has yet to play a snap in the regular season.  The take "He was expected to battle for a depth linebacker position and a special teams spot, before injuring his shoulder in the final preseason game" is correct to date.

Joseph was heading to the practice squad at best before his injury. He was red shirted.  We will see if he can make the team this year, but to expect he can be anywhere near Milano’s level is silly.  He has a long way to go based on his pre-season performance last year.  

[thebandit27]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Bandit: My point (and maybe a few other peoples) is that you keep asserting it's a "relatively easy position to fill" without adequately defending that position - even whilst complaining about other people making undefended assertions.

 

Cherry picking a few guys who come in and contribute immediately as Milano did, doesn't affect the fundamental point: there are a LOT of LB drafted in the late rounds.

 

If one or four or eight out of 26 contribute immediately, you're still talking no better than 3 out of 10.  Basic math says if you want to be ~90% sure you got a guy who can contribute, you need to draft something like 6 of 'em [(7/10)^6]. 

 

If you broaden the rounds later from the 5th, you get into a larger pool of draftees and a lower percentage of success.  If you broaden the rounds earlier, into the first 3 or 4, now you're getting into the "money" rounds where players are expected to contribute.  Now you're using draft picks to backfill holes created by letting proven NFL-quality talent we've developed walk instead of using picks to improve the team or bring in depth - a fair complaint about previous Bills FO.  Sure, every scout thinks he's a draft day genius but as one goes later into the draft, the variables stack up and the certainties decrease.

 

This is also a point I thought you were aware of, but McDermott and Frazier's defense really counts on everyone doing their 1/11.  When looking at an RB or WR, one can look at how many yards he gains, passes he catches, and TDs he scores vs how many fumbles.  On defense, one can't as easily look at some bare stats like tackles made and compare player performance between teams.   I think you know that when you're not entrenched into trying to defend a relatively extreme position you've taken.

 

There’s a lot here, and in order to not go too far into the weeds I’ll keep this succinct.

 

If we simply narrow the scope for the purpose of affixing a percentage of “immediate contributions” to a sample space of LBs, we can at least have a measuring stick. 
 

Suppose we use the 2019 draft, round 5. 12 LBs selected. You can easily argue that 7 of those guys did nothing (for various reasons). You can also very reasonably argue that 4 became starters early on as rookies (if not immediately) and played well. Up for debate is how Van Ginkel would’ve fared had he not started the season on IR, but he sure looked the part of an NFL ‘backer in spot duty down the stretch and in his 1 start.

 

So in that small sample space, we see just over 40% rate of contribution.

 

Now we could easily be convinced that such a success rate is an aberration, so let’s take it back a year and look at the 2018 5th round to expand the sample set. Well, there’s some subjectivity to the analysis, but I’ll claim that 2/6 were immediate contributors, so 33%.
 

Go back to 2017, and you’re looking at 3/6 LBs. 
 

Again, all subjective, but the idea that you’re batting in the teens percentage wise is mistaken IMO.

 

And again, none of this is to say that Milano shouldn’t be re-signed. It’s that $12.5M for a position where help can be found more reliably than many others seems very high.

 

I’m sure folks will disagree; that’s fine. I’ve stated my case and will let it stand.