MMQB: Bills spent considerable time with top WRs including Jeudy and Lamb

[BillsFan17]

Just now, PIZ said:

I personally feel that Beane is looking to trade up for K’Lavon Chaisson. However, if one of the top 3 WRs drop, and Beane thinks they have a chance at being ELITE, I believe he’ll pull the trigger. How many elite players do the scouts consider there to be in this draft? 10, 15, 20? I’m guessing that Beane wants a shot at one of those elite players, and it doesn’t matter if that elite player is an Edge, CB, OT, Safety, or WR. 
 

Everyone’s entitled to their opinion. That’s just mine. 
 

 

Now, see I can absolutely get behind trading up for Chaisson, I think that kid has upper echelon talent. Also, I think the drop off in pass rushing talent is fairly considerable. Gross-Matos and to an extent Baun are solid late first/early second rounders, but to me after Young (who is just beyond in a class of his own) there is Chaisson and then some solid specs.

 

When looking beyond the top guys- the pool of the edge rushers doesnt stack up to talent pool of WRs for me. 

 

Reagor, Aiyuk, Shenault, Jefferson, Higgins, Peoples-Jones, Hamler, Edwards, Claypool, etc... 

 

Moreover, edge rusher to me is second to QB in terms of premium positions. Thus, you can justify using the capital to obtain one easier than you could a WR.

[Lurker]

2 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Thats from 2018, not this year, and not in regard to any of the players being discussed. Are we really going to apply logic from a different draft class, at a different state of the franchise, with vastly different circumstances, one in which the targets were not WR?

 

At the Senior Bowl:     https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bills-gm-brandon-beane-falcons-gm-thomas-dimitroff-join-stf/id1227006689?i=1000463331888

 

You've been aggressive to move up for guys, is that your MO as a GM? 

 

- " Definitely ,  I let the board tell me what decisions we need to make and if a guy is sticking out above everybody  else on the board and continues to fall, with Edwards ,  if we had not got josh, Edwards would have been the guy we took at 12. When he got to 14 Packers were on the clock, man we got to start calling  , Oakland wouldn't do it they had already traded down and wanted to pick at 15 , then we found Baltimore who was willing to do it. We felt the value was there. So when the value meets a big hole that you got, why not be aggressive ". 

 

 

At the combine:       https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/25/brandon-beane-buffalo-bills-wide-receivers-nfl-draft-combine-analysis-edge-rushers/

 

5. How much of a need is edge rusher? Big.

So big, Beane said it’s a need even if impending free agents Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips stay.

“I think it is regardless,” Beane said. “I think even if we signed back both Shaq and Jordan it would not deter me in any round to take another pass rusher. I think it’s one of the premium positions. The elite ones get paid. After the quarterback, that’s usually the next-highest-paid position.”

 

Also at the combine:

 

Beane acknowledged the need for more big plays.

 

“John Brown probably gave us our most explosive plays, and Dawson had a couple explosive plays, and Devin had a few,” Beane said, referring to Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary. “We didn’t have enough explosive plays. The less explosive plays, the more 10-, 12-play drives you’ve got to have. What makes those hard is one penalty sets you back. All of a sudden you get a holding and you’re in second and 20 it becomes hard to get a first down. That’s where you saw the Chiefs have a Tyreek Hill, and he takes it to the house in one play. You’re always looking for explosive guys.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan17]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

At the Senior Bowl:     https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bills-gm-brandon-beane-falcons-gm-thomas-dimitroff-join-stf/id1227006689?i=1000463331888

 

You've been aggressive to move up for guys, is that your MO as a GM? 

 

- " Definitely ,  I let the board tell me what decisions we need to make and if a guy is sticking out above everybody  else on the board and continues to fall, with Edwards ,  if we had not got josh, Edwards would have been the guy we took at 12. When he got to 14 Packers were on the clock, man we got to start calling  , Oakland wouldn't do it they had already traded down and wanted to pick at 15 , then we found Baltimore who was willing to do it. We felt the value was there. So when the value meets a big hole that you got, why not be aggressive ". 

 

 

At the combine:       https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/25/brandon-beane-buffalo-bills-wide-receivers-nfl-draft-combine-analysis-edge-rushers/

 

5. How much of a need is edge rusher? Big.

So big, Beane said it’s a need even if impending free agents Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips stay.

“I think it is regardless,” Beane said. “I think even if we signed back both Shaq and Jordan it would not deter me in any round to take another pass rusher. I think it’s one of the premium positions. The elite ones get paid. After the quarterback, that’s usually the next-highest-paid position.”

 

Also at the combine:

 

Beane acknowledged the need for more big plays.

 

“John Brown probably gave us our most explosive plays, and Dawson had a couple explosive plays, and Devin had a few,” Beane said, referring to Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary. “We didn’t have enough explosive plays. The less explosive plays, the more 10-, 12-play drives you’ve got to have. What makes those hard is one penalty sets you back. All of a sudden you get a holding and you’re in second and 20 it becomes hard to get a first down. That’s where you saw the Chiefs have a Tyreek Hill, and he takes it to the house in one play. You’re always looking for explosive guys.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, if Beane trades up for a pass rusher, that is better asset management than trading up for a WR.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Now, see I can absolutely get behind trading up for Chaisson, I think that kid has upper echelon talent. Also, I think the drop off in pass rushing talent is fairly considerable. Gross-Matos and to an extent Baun are solid late first/early second rounders, but to me after Young (who is just beyond in a class of his own) there is Chaisson and then some solid specs.

 

I would absolutely be "in" on trading up for Chaisson.  I just don't know how high we'd have to go.

 

It's just a feeling, I won't claim logic to it but I'm not sure Beane is sold on the "talent gap" between the top 3 WR and the rest of the pack.  I think he believes we can get a guy who will be able to step in and help us offensively right away late in the 2nd or even the 3rd round.  I hope his scouting is better than the scouting on Zay Jones, that's all.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

There is zero evidence or proof that acquiring one of those guys comes with a lower "bust rate."  Again, acting like these guys are immune to busting is not logical, it's a biased opinion based on nothing than own personal sentiment. I'm not advocating that any will, I acknowledge the level of prospect they are considered. However, I also acknowledge there are more than just a handful of guys that can possibly be as productive if not more productive. That's based on recent trends of a handful of draft classes. Moreover, WR is among the positions with the highest bust rate. So to tell me moving up for one reduces that risk, is again, based on nothing but personal sentiment.

 

You keep referencing how these top three are just on a different level, but refuse to truly acknowledge how deep this class is compared to just about any other class. 

 

There is plenty of evidence that first rounders while not immune to busting bust less than 2nd rounders. 

 

I don't refuse to acknowledge how deep this class is. @thebandit27 and I have discussed before how it is likely that receivers make up a quarter or more of the top 100 players this year.... similar to the Dline class last year or the DBs in 2017. 

 

Pretending there is the exact same chance of hitting if you take Jeudy or Pittman is the fallacy. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I didn't say that.  You said they bust SIGNIFICANTLY less.  I said the stats dont suggest its SIGNIFICANT.  I can list a ton of WR's who busted to match your list that didn't.  

 

Statistically, the bust rate of someone taken in the top 10 isn't SIGNIFICANTLY better than someone taken at 22.  My point was simply that its not a significant as you made it out to be, and its also not an exact science year to year either.  

 

You dont mortgage the future to move up for a WR this year in this draft class.  You can move up still, but its totally unnecessary to make a huge move.  Last year you and lots of others kept saying there were no #1 WR's in the draft or special guys, yet many came in and made huge impacts right away and proved just how good that draft class was like many of us kept saying.  

 

Again this year, its loaded and even more so than last year.  You do not need to give up the farm to get any one player at WR this year is all I am saying.

 

Yep. There was not a Jeudy, Ruggs or Lamb in last year's class. I never said there were not guys who could come in and make an impact. In fact I was the guy who called Deebo Samuel one of the safest picks in the draft and I was the only person around here I can recall, except the departed Turbs, who had AJ Brown graded out as my #1 guy. 

 

This class is loaded. There is even more depth than last year. But what it has that last year lacked is those top end elite prospects. 

 

On chances of busting top 10 vs 22.... the numbers are that top 10 picks bust about 36% of the time. 1st rounders outside of the top 20 bust about 53% of the time. That was a study done a few years back. It does not mean Jeudy or Lamb or Ruggs can't bust. But you are giving up capital to reduce the chances. 

 

And for the 100th time I am not even advocating a trade up. I am just rejecting the idea that it is just a lottery and you have as much chance with the 22nd ticket picking the 2nd tier receiver prospects as you do with the say 10th ticket picking a top tier receiver prospect. You can still hit. But your odds are reduced. 

[BillsFan17]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is plenty of evidence that first rounders while not immune to busting bust less than 2nd rounders. 

 

I don't refuse to acknowledge how deep this class is. @thebandit27 and I have discussed before how it is likely that receivers make up a quarter or more of the top 100 players this year.... similar to the Dline class last year or the DBs in 2017. 

 

Pretending there is the exact same chance of hitting if you take Jeudy or Pittman is the fallacy. 

And the margin between first and second round bust rates is? Not large at all. At a position that is among the highest bust rate, arguing that

1) the top three is so sure fired thing giving up more assets assures a lower bust rate-instead of adding ample expectations to produce at the level of capital spent on you. And statistically, throughout history, more likely one of them ends up living up to it, maybe two. So, making sure you nail which one that is, in no way is a lower bust rate.

 

2) The difference between bust rate and round is real, agreed, but again marginal. Especially when it's hard to call a third or fourth rounder a bust. Considering the level of expectations. Moreover, again, with the trends we have seen, the field has produced as well, if not better than the first rounders. 

 

If I trade up to get one of the three, let's say Jeudy

Gives me

64 receptions 850 yards 10 TDs, but the cost of moving up was significant (Calvin Ridley rookie numbers 1st rounder)

 

Or

Say someone like Peoples-Jones in the second gives 

42 receptions 704 yards 5 TDs (Sutton rookie numbers 2nd rounder) but I was also able to land a a premier talent in the first like Fulton, or Gross-Matos, or Thomas, whatever spec tickles your fancy, along with the rest of my capital.

 

* worth noting Sutton had the better second season of the two.

Sure, the production from Jeudy would look at lot better, but for me not going to be worth the capital (especially at WR) when I know it's entirely possible a second, or even third round pick will give me similiar production. 

 

The Bills are not a WR away from being a contending team, they are not going to to lure top tier FAs, nor should they throw every penny at FAs. They have to be judicial with their money. In turn, if you decide you want to move up in this class it better be for the trenches and not WR.

Edited March 3, 2020 by BillsFan17

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

And the margin between first and second round bust rates is? Not large at all. At a position that is among the highest bust rate, arguing that

1) the top three is so sure fired thing giving up more assets assures a lower bust rate-instead of adding ample expectations to produce at the level of capital spent on you. And statistically, throughout history, more likely one of them ends up living up to it, maybe two. So, making sure you nail which one that is, in no way is a lower bust rate.

 

2) The difference between bust rate and round is real, agreed, but again marginal. Especially when it's hard to call a third or fourth rounder a bust. Considering the level of expectations. Moreover, again, with the trends we have seen, the field has produced as well, if not better than the first rounders. 

 

If I trade up to get one of the three, let's say Jeudy

Gives me

64 receptions 850 yards 10 TDs, but the cost of moving up was significant (Calvin Ridley rookie numbers 1st rounder)

 

Or

Say someone like Peoples-Jones in the second gives 

42 receptions 704 yards 5 TDs (Sutton rookie numbers 2nd rounder) but I was also able to land a a premier talent in the first like Fulton, or Gross-Matos, or Thomas, whatever spec tickles your fancy, along with the rest of my capital.

 

* worth noting Sutton had the better second season of the two.

Sure, the production from Jeudy would look at lot better, but for me not going to be worth the capital (especially at WR) when I know it's entirely possible a second, or even third round pick will give me similiar production. 

 

The Bills are not a WR away from being a contending team, they are not going to to lure top tier FAs, nor should they throw every penny at FAs. They have to be judicial with their money. In turn, if you decide you want to move up in this class it better be for the trenches and not WR.

[wppete]

10 hours ago, BillsFan2313 said:

Jeudy is the only one worth trading up for IMO

I’d take CeeDee Lamb over Jeudy. They are both studs but Lamb has the slight edge.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, wppete said:

I’d take CeeDee Lamb over Jeudy. They are both studs but Lamb has the slight edge.

I see Deandre Hopkins in Lamb, and that has a special kind of impact given the last game we played was vs Hopkins and the type of plays he made for Watson in crunch time whereas we didn’t have that guy even though the throws were there. 

[Don Otreply]

18 hours ago, Uncle Joe said:

Yolo, please tell me it was called back for the crackback block.

That block was perfectly fine, that would have been BS call like the one on Ford in the WC game, jmo... 

[BillsFan17]

19 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

1) The Bills are absolutely not a WR away from being a contender. Our own GM stated we are not one player away.

 

2) Most of the FAs are being tagged, and gauging by the Pro Bowl, most FAs stated Buffalo wasnt really a preferred destination.

 

You can use whatever gif you want, but you absolutely can not disprove either point.

Edited March 3, 2020 by BillsFan17

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, BillsFan17 said:

1) The Bills are absolutely not a WR away from being a contender. Our own GM stated we are not one player away.

 

2) Most of the FAs are being tagged, and gauging by the Pro Bowl, most FAs stated Buffalo wasnt really a preferred destination.

 

You can use whatever gif you want, but you absolutely can not disprove either point.

There is no reason to “disprove” anything - It is my opinion that i watched the Bills  be a WR away from advancing in the playoffs to the next round as they lost in OT, and there were plays to be made by WRs that weren’t - that would have won the game. I do consider a divisional playoff game one that involves “contenders”. And the offseason is more than one draft pick, they don’t need to rest on a singular move of one WR anyway, so the point is moot. Also, it’s an opinion, which isn’t to be proven or disproven. The Bills have lured top tier FAs in the past, they have tons of money to spend, and I’m not sure which ones they want this year, but not all of the FAs are tagged. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[elltrain22]

11 hours ago, Putin said:

One thing we know that if McBean wants his guy he will go and get him ,  do you think Jeudy/Alabama connection could be the one that ( if we do make the move ) we move up for ?

 

I think most GMs have Jeudy and Lamb pretty closely ranked on their board. The thing about Jeudy is he's likely gone after 8th or 9th pick. I think Beane would prefer to trade up to the teens so he won't have to give up valuable draft capital. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

And the margin between first and second round bust rates is? Not large at all. At a position that is among the highest bust rate, arguing that

1) the top three is so sure fired thing giving up more assets assures a lower bust rate-instead of adding ample expectations to produce at the level of capital spent on you. And statistically, throughout history, more likely one of them ends up living up to it, maybe two. So, making sure you nail which one that is, in no way is a lower bust rate.

 

2) The difference between bust rate and round is real, agreed, but again marginal. Especially when it's hard to call a third or fourth rounder a bust. Considering the level of expectations. Moreover, again, with the trends we have seen, the field has produced as well, if not better than the first rounders. 

 

If I trade up to get one of the three, let's say Jeudy

Gives me

64 receptions 850 yards 10 TDs, but the cost of moving up was significant (Calvin Ridley rookie numbers 1st rounder)

 

Or

Say someone like Peoples-Jones in the second gives 

42 receptions 704 yards 5 TDs (Sutton rookie numbers 2nd rounder) but I was also able to land a a premier talent in the first like Fulton, or Gross-Matos, or Thomas, whatever spec tickles your fancy, along with the rest of my capital.

 

Sure, the production from Jeudy would look at lot better, but for me not going to be worth the capital (especially at WR) when I know it's entirely possible a second, or even third round pick will give me similiar production. 

 

The Bills are not a WR away from being a contending team, they are not going to to lure top tier FAs, nor should they throw every penny at FAs. They have to be judicial with their money. In turn, if you decide you want to move up in this class it better be for the trenches and not WR.

 

I gave the numbers from a study a couple of years ago above. The difference in bust rate between top 10 and anything after 20 is significant.

 

I had Courtland Sutton ranked right there with Calvin Ridley two years ago for what it's worth. They were a point apart on my board. And that remains my point. Comparing to more compressed classes isn't the right way of judging the value of THIS class. Let's look instead at 2014. That was the last really good WR class that had both top end talent and significant depth. In that class the top 3 that separated from the rest of a good class were Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and OBJ. They all went top 12 then Cooks went at #20 (after the Saints traded UP from #27) then Benjamin went #28 and then 7 went in round 2.

 

Rookie years

OBJ had 1305 yards and 12 TDs

Evans had 1051 and 12 TDs

Benjamin had 1008 and 9 TDs

Watkins had 982 and 6 TDs

Cooks had 550 and 3 TDs

 

Then of the 2nd rounders the best rookie year was Jordan Matthews at 872 yards and 8 TDs and the worst was Cody Latimer at 23 yards and 0 TDs. The average production from the seven 2nd rounders was 477 yards and fewer than 3 TDs.

 

So if you are just looking at how productive a guy will be as a rookie it is pretty clear there is a significantly better chance of getting production out of a first rounder. Two players had elite production - both top 12 picks - and the third top 12 pick was 4th in total production. Only Benjamin and Matthews of the guys picked outside the top 12 even got close to the level of production of those top guys. The rest all had pretty much half the production of Sammy Watkins who was the least high performing of the three top 12 picks.

 

But draft picks are for life... not just for Christmas.... so let's look not just at rookie production....

 

Career Production

Evans has 7260 yards and 48 TDs

OBJ has 6511 and 48 TDs

Landry has 6188 and 32 TDs

Cooks has 5730 and 34 TDs

Adams has 5194 and 44 TDS

Robinson has 4749 and 33 TDs

Watkins has 4244 and 31 TDs

Matthews has 3288 and 22 TDs

Benjamin has 3021 and 20 TDs

Lee has 2184 and 8 TDs

Richardson has 1809 and 12 TDs

Latimer has 935 and 6 TDs

 

So yet again, after the career numbers are considered the two guys with elite level production were both picked in the top 12. They were 2 of the 3 elite prospects. The third elite prospect has been outperformed by 1 later 1st round pick and three of the second rounders (including the last two of the 10 we have looked who were taken), but hasn't busted. There are 4 busts on the lists I'd say. Latimer, Lee and Richardson who have never nailed down starting jobs and Benjamin who after the early success washed out of the league totally.

 

So in conclusion from the comparable 2014 class the three elite prospects produced two elite NFL performers and a guy who has not lived up to the draft stock but has performed solidly and averages 700 yards and 5 touchdowns a year. Percentage of elite players? 66%. Percentage of busts? 0%. From the other two first rounders Cooks has been a solid producer and Benjamin has been a bust. 0% elite. 50% bust. The second round picks have produced Landry whose production is borderline elite, Adams who is just below that threshold (partly because of health issues) and Robinson who has been a solid contributor. It then also produced Matthews who is  backend of the roster player and then three busts. 14% elite. 43% bust.

 

I think a lot of Bills fans are scarred by the fact that the last time there was a class that resembled this one the Bills traded up and then drafted the one of the 3 elite guys who hasn't ended up an elite performer. But he has performed pretty much in the middle of the group and has certainly not busted. The other two elite prospects have been the two elite performers. That to me is the reality of this class too. I'd be stunned if at least two of these top three don't end up elite performers and I doubt the third of them busts even if he doesn't quite match that level. Maybe Justin Jefferson is the Jarvis Landry (he is the closest comp for him for me and not just because of LSU!) and our performs one of the top 3 prospects.... but you better be sure he isn't the Paul Richardson.

[BillsFan17]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

There is no reason to “disprove” anything - Itvis my opinion that i watched the Bills  be a WR away from advancing in the playoffs to the next round as they lost in OT, and there were plays to be made by WRs that weren’t - that would have won the game. I do consider a divisional playoff game one that involves “contenders”. And the offseason is more than one draft pick, they don’t need to rest on a singular move of one WR anyway, so the point is moot. Also, it’s an opinion, which isn’t to be proven or disproven. The Bills have lured top tier FAs in the past, they have tons of money to spend, and I’m not sure which ones they want this year, but not all of the FAs are tagged. 

There were plays left on the field by a variety of positions. Not just WR. 

[BarleyNY]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

We know Beane likes to trade up. I'm sure if they do it will be for one of the top 3 WRs. I think the Bucs at pick 14 is the spot they are keeping an eye on.

Absolutely agree.  The cost should be our second, which is a slight overpayment on the JJ chart.  LV is at 12 and Indy is at 13.  Could also look at those picks if the draft falls a certain way.  They both could be looking to move up for a QB or, failing that, be looking to stock up on 2021 picks to do so.  Or the team falling back into one of those spots could be looking for volume.

 

Either way, we sit at 22 and I see the 1st round talent softening up right around there if not before.  It depends on whether teams reach for positions like Edge before we pick or if they’re going BPA.  I am all on board with going and getting our guy.  I want us to bring home a difference maker on the first day. 

[BillsFan17]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I gave the numbers from a study a couple of years ago above. The difference in bust rate between top 10 and anything after 20 is significant.

 

I had Courtland Sutton ranked right there with Calvin Ridley two years ago for what it's worth. They were a point apart on my board. And that remains my point. Comparing to more compressed classes isn't the right way of judging the value of THIS class. Let's look instead at 2014. That was the last really good WR class that had both top end talent and significant depth. In that class the top 3 that separated from the rest of a good class were Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and OBJ. They all went top 12 then Cooks went at #20 (after the Saints traded UP from #27) then Benjamin went #28 and then 7 went in round 2.

 

Rookie years

OBJ had 1305 yards and 12 TDs

Evans had 1051 and 12 TDs

Benjamin had 1008 and 9 TDs

Watkins had 982 and 6 TDs

Cooks had 550 and 3 TDs

 

Then of the 2nd rounders the best rookie year was Jordan Matthews at 872 yards and 8 TDs and the worst was Cody Latimer at 23 yards and 0 TDs. The average production from the seven 2nd rounders was 477 yards and fewer than 3 TDs.

 

So if you are just looking at how productive a guy will be as a rookie it is pretty clear there is a significantly better chance of getting production out of a first rounder. Two players had elite production - both top 12 picks - and the third top 12 pick was 4th in total production. Only Benjamin and Matthews of the guys picked outside the top 12 even got close to the level of production of those top guys. The rest all had pretty much half the production of Sammy Watkins who was the least high performing of the three top 12 picks.

 

But draft picks are for life... not just for Christmas.... so let's look not just at rookie production....

 

Career Production

Evans has 7260 yards and 48 TDs

OBJ has 6511 and 48 TDs

Landry has 6188 and 32 TDs

Cooks has 5730 and 34 TDs

Adams has 5194 and 44 TDS

Robinson has 4749 and 33 TDs

Watkins has 4244 and 31 TDs

Matthews has 3288 and 22 TDs

Benjamin has 3021 and 20 TDs

Lee has 2184 and 8 TDs

Richardson has 1809 and 12 TDs

Latimer has 935 and 6 TDs

 

So yet again, after the career numbers are considered the two guys with elite level production were both picked in the top 12. They were 2 of the 3 elite prospects. The third elite prospect has been outperformed by 1 later 1st round pick and three of the second rounders (including the last two of the 10 we have looked who were taken), but hasn't busted. There are 4 busts on the lists I'd say. Latimer, Lee and Richardson who have never nailed down starting jobs and Benjamin who after the early success washed out of the league totally.

 

So in conclusion from the comparable 2014 class the three elite prospects produced two elite NFL performers and a guy who has not lived up to the draft stock but has performed solidly and averages 700 yards and 5 touchdowns a year. Percentage of elite players? 66%. Percentage of busts? 0%. From the other two first rounders Cooks has been a solid producer and Benjamin has been a bust. 0% elite. 50% bust. The second round picks have produced Landry whose production is borderline elite, Adams who is just below that threshold (partly because of health issues) and Robinson who has been a solid contributor. It then also produced Matthews who is  backend of the roster player and then three busts. 14% elite. 43% bust.

 

I think a lot of Bills fans are scarred by the fact that the last time there was a class that resembled this one the Bills traded up and then drafted the one of the 3 elite guys who hasn't ended up an elite performer. But he has performed pretty much in the middle of the group and has certainly not busted. The other two elite prospects have been the two elite performers. That to me is the reality of this class too. I'd be stunned if at least two of these top three don't end up elite performers and I doubt the third of them busts even if he doesn't quite match that level. Maybe Justin Jefferson is the Jarvis Landry (he is the closest comp for him for me and not just because of LSU!) and our performs one of the top 3 prospects.... but you better be sure he isn't the Paul Richardson.

Very strong post, well written and very very good points. I see what you are driving at here and you make a lot of very valid points. I concede you are correct here.

 

That being said, could we also say the depth beyond the top of the 2014 class wasnt nearly as much as this class? Yes, the top performers of that class mostly panned out, but again, the depth of the class has to come into account...

[BarleyNY]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

There were plays left on the field by a variety of positions. Not just WR. 

But yet a difference maker at WR would have made the difference between a W and a L in the Houston game.  One might even argue that we’d have been sitting at home with a bye if we had that kind of player all of last season.  And the Bills still have the opportunity to make many other moves this off-season so.......

Edited March 3, 2020 by BarleyNY

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

Very strong post, well written and very very good points. I see what you are driving at here and you make a lot of very valid points. I concede you are correct here.

 

That being said, could we also say the depth beyond the top of the 2014 class wasnt nearly as much as this class? Yes, the top performers of that class mostly panned out, but again, the depth of the class has to come into account...

 

It remains to be seen. At this moment in time yes - I personally think the depth guys (ie the guys likely to go rounds 2 and 3) are probably better in this class than they were in that 2014 class (admission alert - it was my first year grading players and I had Cody Latimer graded as the best of those 2nd round guys just ahead of Landry - oops!) but the depth in that class was seen as really strong at the time too. I still think of all the 2nd and 3rd round guys in thos class the success rate will be somewhere around 50%. If you hit on the right one in the 2nd round or even at #22 and have enabled yourself to go edge or corner or offensive line with your other pick - great. But if you end up with one of the guys who is just okay or even worse a bust then how much benefit did you gain from keeping your powder dry as against trading up?

 

If there is a deal that makes sense the Bills should pursue it. It is a difficult balancing act to get right though - not giving up too much to get a guy who might be an elite difference maker.