MMQB: Bills spent considerable time with top WRs including Jeudy and Lamb

[BillsFan17]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course anyone can bust. But the chances of one of those top 3 busting is significantly less than the chance of one of the next clump of 7 or 8 2nd round types busting. That is kind of the point. You would be paying with assets to reduce the bust risk. 

I've pointed out a handful of draft classes now, including the most recent one where more than a handful of players selected after the consensus top prospects played extremely well.

 

Before the start of this season only 20 rookie WRs since 1950 have put up over 1,000 yards in their rookie campaigns. Yet, this past year the only WR to do it was a second rounder, and the only others close were fellow second rounders Deebo/DK, third rounder McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Slayton. Hollywood Brown and Harry where nowhere even close. Yet they were the first round picks. The better of the prospects.

 

What kind of season/production/abilities would Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs have to show that would truly separate them from the potential contributions of guys like say Aiyuk, Mims, Peoples-Jones, Pittman Jr... where you can argue the value made the juice worth the squeeze...

 

Again armed with the knowledge that in recent years we have seen second, third, fourth round WRs be productive.

Edited March 3, 2020 by BillsFan17

[Jerboski]

I trust Beane regardless if he goes up for one of these guys, he has earned it 

[Buffalo Junction]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have watched the full game tape. I am not as forgiving as you are. I think it is a legit concern and I am not willing to wave it away and say "ah he was fed up with bad Quarterbacking." 

 

Catch the damn ball.

I’m not forgiving. There were a few moments when he gets a shoulder bump from teammates after a drop.... It’s concerning. Particularly when you combine it with his apathetic blocking.... makes you wonder if he “gave up” on some plays and was surprised when the ball did show up on time and accurately. 
 

Despite the physical talent he has a much lower floor than the top three guys. There’s a reason - or two post 40 - he’s not in that discussion. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BillsFan17 said:

I've pointed out a handful of draft classes now, including the most recent one where more than a handful of players selected after the consensus top prospects played extremely well.

 

Before the start of this season only 20 rookie WRs since 1950 have put up over 1,000 yards in their rookie campaigns. Yet, this past year the only WR to do it was a second rounder, and the only others close were fellow second rounders Deebo/DK, third rounder McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Slayton. Hollywood Brown and Harry where nowhere even close. Yet they were the first round picks. The better of the prospects.

 

What kind of season/production/abilities would Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs have to show that would truly separate them from the potential contributions of guys like say Aiyuk, Mims, Peoples-Jones, Pittman Jr... where you can argue the value made before juice worth the squeeze...

 

Again armed with the knowledge that in recent years we have seen second, third, fourth round WRs be productive.

 

AJ Brown and DK Metcalf were the top two receivers on my board last year. I am not having them cast as longshots. The whole point is last year's was a muddled class where different people I spoke to or listened to had as many as 6 different receivers top of their boards. And they were all grouped together. That is like the Higgins, Shenault, Aiyuk, Reagor, Jefferson etc group this year. If those were the best guys in the class views would be all over the map as to how they would rank and taking one a round earlier than the other would be no guarantee. 

 

This is not that class. Everyone you speak to and listen to this year agrees there are 3 guys that are clearly ahead of everyone else. It is not equal chance of those guys being good as it is the 2nd round guys. If you spend extra capital but get Jeudy or Lamb or Ruggs you have a significantly better chance of finding a #1 guy. They are not N'Keal Harry and Hollywood Brown. That is Higgins and Hamler. 

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course anyone can bust. But the chances of one of those top 3 busting is significantly less than the chance of one of the next clump of 7 or 8 2nd round types busting. That is kind of the point. You would be paying with assets to reduce the bust risk. 

I don’t think the stats show it’s significantly less.  I would love to get Lamb or Juedy, but also not wanting to pay a huge bounty either given the richness of this draft.  After the top 3 guys are taken, there are guys who will go at 22 to well into the second that would be in consideration for first WR off the board in other drafts and certainly be first rounders.  

 

Im all for a trade up if it’s not too expensive because the one they covet fell to say mid teens or later.  But a Steelers like move of three premium picks to get up to near 10 or something is too much to pay given the immense talent at WR in this draft.

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

AJ Brown and DK Metcalf were the top two receivers on my board last year. I am not having them cast as longshots. The whole point is last year's was a muddled class where different people I spoke to or listened to had as many as 6 different receivers top of their boards. And they were all grouped together. That is like the Higgins, Shenault, Aiyuk, Reagor, Jefferson etc group this year. If those were the best guys in the class views would be all over the map as to how they would rank and taking one a round earlier than the other would be no guarantee. 

 

This is not that class. Everyone you speak to and listen to this year agrees there are 3 guys that are clearly ahead of everyone else. It is not equal chance of those guys being good as it is the 2nd round guys. If you spend extra capital but get Jeudy or Lamb or Ruggs you have a significantly better chance of finding a #1 guy. They are not N'Keal Harry and Hollywood Brown. That is Higgins and Hamler. 

 

 

Amen brother.

 

 

[BillsFan17]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

AJ Brown and DK Metcalf were the top two receivers on my board last year. I am not having them cast as longshots. The whole point is last year's was a muddled class where different people I spoke to or listened to had as many as 6 different receivers top of their boards. And they were all grouped together. That is like the Higgins, Shenault, Aiyuk, Reagor, Jefferson etc group this year. If those were the best guys in the class views would be all over the map as to how they would rank and taking one a round earlier than the other would be no guarantee. 

 

This is not that class. Everyone you speak to and listen to this year agrees there are 3 guys that are clearly ahead of everyone else. It is not equal chance of those guys being good as it is the 2nd round guys. If you spend extra capital but get Jeudy or Lamb or Ruggs you have a significantly better chance of finding a #1 guy. They are not N'Keal Harry and Hollywood Brown. That is Higgins and Hamler. 

But the point is how much more significantly better are those guys going to be where the extra picks will be mitigated? And last years draft was just one example. I have shown other draft classes that proved the same point.

 

I'm not saying I wouldnt take one if they slid to 22. Hell, I even like the idea of Shenault, Reagor, or Jefferson at 22, but again because I'm not giving up extra capital.

 

And however last years class was grouped/graded, the producers came in the second round and later. Showing maybe teams are willing to wait because they can find playmakers/contributors throughout the draft.

 

Again, the top three being regarded as they are, in no way, shape, or form diminishes the level of spec some of these guys are.

 

So again, the level of productivity, would have to absolutely blow the field out of the water to justify spending additional capital. Its astonishing how a historically deep class is being downplayed in order to push a narrative that the top three will absolutely blow the field away.

 

Which, historically, has not been the case.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I don’t think the stats show it’s significantly less.  I would love to get Lamb or Juedy, but also not wanting to pay a huge bounty either given the richness of this draft.  After the top 3 guys are taken, there are guys who will go at 22 to well into the second that would be in consideration for first WR off the board in other drafts and certainly be first rounders.  

 

Im all for a trade up if it’s not too expensive because the one they covet fell to say mid teens or later.  But a Steelers like move of three premium picks to get up to near 10 or something is too much to pay given the immense talent at WR in this draft.

 

What stats? You don't think receivers taken early have a better success rate? 

 

Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans, OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper.... all 1st rounders. 

 

As there being guys who will go 4th and 5th off the board in this class that would be 1st off in other classes - I agree. In classes that lack those true elite prospects. That is the whole point. 

2 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

But the point is how much more significantly better are those guys going to be where the extra picks will be mitigated? And last years draft was just one example. I have shown other draft classes that proved the same point.

 

I'm not saying I wouldnt take one if they slid to 22. Hell, I even like the idea of Shenault, Reagor, or Jefferson at 22, but again because I'm not giving up extra capital.

 

And however last years class was grouped/graded, the producers came in the second round and later. Showing maybe teams are willing to wait because they can find playmakers/contributors throughout the draft.

 

Again, the top three being regarded as they are, in no way, shape, or form diminishes the level of spec some of these guys are.

 

So again, the level of productivity, would have to absolutely blow the field out of the water to justify spending additional capital. Its astonishing how a historically deep class is being downplayed in order to push a narrative that the top three will absolutely blow the field away.

 

Which, historically, has not been the case.

 

The top 3 are clearly better prospects. I'd be shocked if any of the three busted to be honest. Might there be guys from the next group who out perform one, two or all of the three top guys? Yep. Very possible. But there will 100% be guys in that 2nd tier who bust. You have to make sure you don't pick those ones. 

 

I am not even arguing FOR the trade up. I am arguing that you are giving up assets to reduce the bust percentage risk and that, is absolutely correct. Whether you think that is the right approach is a different question. 

[BillsFan17]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What stats? You don't think receivers taken early have a better success rate? 

 

Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans, OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper.... all 1st rounders. 

 

As there being guys who will go 4th and 5th off the board in this class that would be 1st off in other classes - I agree. In classes that lack those true elite prospects. That is the whole point. 

 

The top 3 are clearly better prospects. I'd be shocked if any of the three busted to be honest. Might there be guys from the next group who out perform one, two or all of the three top guys? Yep. Very possible. But there will 100% be guys in that 2nd tier who bust. You have to make sure you don't pick those ones. 

 

I am not even arguing FOR the trade up. I am arguing that you are giving up assets to reduce the bust percentage risk and that, is absolutely correct. Whether you think that is the right approach is a different question. 

There is zero evidence or proof that acquiring one of those guys comes with a lower "bust rate."  Again, acting like these guys are immune to busting is not logical, it's a biased opinion based on nothing than own personal sentiment. I'm not advocating that any will, I acknowledge the level of prospect they are considered. However, I also acknowledge there are more than just a handful of guys that can possibly be as productive if not more productive. That's based on recent trends of a handful of draft classes. Moreover, WR is among the positions with the highest bust rate. So to tell me moving up for one reduces that risk, is again, based on nothing but personal sentiment.

 

You keep referencing how these top three are just on a different level, but refuse to truly acknowledge how deep this class is compared to just about any other class. 

[Reed83HOF]

3 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

It's a mismanagement of assets. The depth of the class allows you to wait. 

 

Look at last year as an example 

Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, etc...

 

To assume if you dont get one of the top three that you automatically can't find a good player is asinine. 

Your post is asinine

 

 

[BillsFan17]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

Your post is asinine

 

 

I've made countless points as to why I advocate not trading up, try and keep up.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Reagor. I keep flipping him and Aiyuk as my #5 WR. But the drops are a legit concern. Is it hands? Is it concentration? Not sure. But even allowing for the QB issues he drops too many balls. 

 

It is definitely not Shenault. 

 

It is Jeudy #1; Lamb #2; Ruggs #3 for me. But I would be delighted with any of those guys. 

 

Last year was a very different WR class. Last year was like this year's class but without the 3 elite level prospects. If the Bills don't move up for one of the top 3 THEN it is like last year where they shouldn't force a WR pick at #22 because the difference between the guy they get there and the guy they can maybe still get in the 2nd is not that great. But the difference between the top 3 and the rest this year? That is very real. 

I'm not sure why this is so difficult for some people to understand...

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

There is zero evidence or proof that acquiring one of those guys comes with a lower "bust rate."

 

The evidence is the tape. The clear consensus by everyone who has scouted these players is that the top 3 are bust proof. A career like Sammy Watkins is the low end. The reason you trade up is to ensure that becomes the worst case scenario.

 

Most drafts are lucky to have 1 player of the caliber of those top 3. They are tier 1A draft prospects. And because there's 3 of them we have a chance to get one with a relatively minor trade up. I'm not letting the number of tier 2 and 3 receivers deter me from doing what it takes to get a tier 1A. You don't get a lot of chances at those players.

[Reed83HOF]

7 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

I've made countless points as to why I advocate not trading up, try and keep up.

And you have been wrong every time....give it up. You are unable to differentiate the talent level between the tiers of players, everything gunner has said is 1000000% correct. 

 

Edit: depth has nothing to do with elite talent, it provides you players at many rounds throughout the draft, many of which are 2nd and 3rd tier players. Elite talents go at the top of the draft, there is a reason why Beane has said, getting the board right is the most important thing.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Reed83HOF

[BillsFan17]

5 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

And you have been wrong every time....give it up. You are unable to differentiate the talent level between the tiers of players, everything gunner has said is 1000000% correct. 

So when I point out drafts with later round specs out producing guys taken earlier that's wrong? How, how are facts wrong? Across multiple drafts?

 

Moreover, our own GM has pointed out multiple times the depth of the position. So, what is it that I'm giving up exactly?

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/02/nfl-combine-2020-what-bills-gm-and-head-coach-said-about-deep-wr-draft-class.html

 

But no, Allbright's tweet absolutely trumps our own GM. Nailed it!

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by BillsFan17

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Here's the trade. Bills trade pick 22 pick to Jacksonville for the rights to Yannick Ngakoue, Nick Foles, and the 9th overall pick.

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

So when I point out drafts with later round specs out producing guys taken earlier that's wrong? How, how are facts wrong? Across multiple drafts?

 

Moreover, our own GM has pointed out multiple times the depth of the position. So, what is it that I'm giving up exactly?

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/02/nfl-combine-2020-what-bills-gm-and-head-coach-said-about-deep-wr-draft-class.html

 

But no, Allbright's tweet absolutely trumps our own GM. Nailed it!

 

Our gm had also been asked about the bust rate of WRs and depth in a class, he has said that he would move up if they are in the top talent pool and he feels their board is right ?‍♂️

[BillsFan17]

4 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Our gm had also been asked about the bust rate of WRs and depth in a class, he has said that he would move up if they are in the top talent pool and he feels their board is right ?‍♂️

Care to link where Beane said that about this class?

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/why-wide-receiver-draft-prospects-like-what-they-see-from-the-buffalo-bills

 

Cause he is even more, with even those in the media thinking the depth of the class could allow us to wait.

Edited March 3, 2020 by BillsFan17

[Putin]

7 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

That’s why they call it “The Whaley “ ?

I’m sure Whaley is a good guy and I wish him all the BEST I really DO , but I  think we hit a jackpot with McBean  !!!  Cuz for the first time in decades anything less then a division championship  &  AFC championship game would be a disappointment  ... 

I’ll say it AGAIN  As I have been for the past 35 years ( and until the day I die )  GO BILLS  BABY. !!!!  

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Putin

[Putin]

7 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

So the thing is, if they wanted to smoke screen, they would have formally met with both of them and publicized the meetings. They were the only two NOT listed. But yet Breer specifically used their names only in his report.

That would be obvious  but to hide it and then have it leaked would be a little more believable 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Putin