Possibility of trading up to #16 (Atlanta)

[Tsaikotic]

I can see if the edges or OT's start to come off the board they move up...I'd rather they trade out of the first and grab another 2 and 4(hopefully a 3 instead of 4), then use the 5's and 6's to move up into the 4th or 3rd...walk away with 5-6 players from rd 2-4

[H2o]

14 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I hope you’re right H2o...?

 

But what worries me is the Bears are all ready to move on from Trubisky after 3 seasons and he has very similar stats to JA...

 

He doesn’t even have to be elite, I will settle for just a top 15 passer from JA and I will sell my soul...?

Depending on who we sign in FA, that will determine if we move imo. The only guys I could see us moving up a few spots for would be Ruggs/Lamb/Jeudy or Chiasson. If we re-sign Lawson I think the move up for a DE would be off the board. If we get a guy we feel is a top tier talent at WR then there will be no move up for Ruggs, or Lamb, or Jeudy (depending on which of the 3 escapes the top 10). I still think the more likely scenario at this point is us staying put, taking whom they feel is BPA, and maneuver around on day 2 or early day 3. 

[JaCrispy]

58 minutes ago, H2o said:

Depending on who we sign in FA, that will determine if we move imo. The only guys I could see us moving up a few spots for would be Ruggs/Lamb/Jeudy or Chiasson. If we re-sign Lawson I think the move up for a DE would be off the board. If we get a guy we feel is a top tier talent at WR then there will be no move up for Ruggs, or Lamb, or Jeudy (depending on which of the 3 escapes the top 10). I still think the more likely scenario at this point is us staying put, taking whom they feel is BPA, and maneuver around on day 2 or early day 3. 

Here’s a question for you...are you willing to give up next years 1st rounder if it comes to that? Or do you have a limit?

Edited March 1, 2020 by JaCrispy

[H2o]

43 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Here’s a question for you...are you willing to give up next years 1st rounder if it comes to that? Or do you have a limit?

Absolutely not. I don't want to trade up if it costs us this year's 2nd tbh. My guy is Claypool. I like Ruggs/Lamb/Jeudy as well and I'm fine with moving up for them as long as it can be done reasonably. I don't want us to do anything stupid though. Injuries can happen at any point and if, God forbid, JA goes down for an extended period of time that 1st next year could be top 5. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, NoSaint said:

the pats simply trade a lot. Some up, some down. Up for Hightower, up for chandler jones, up for gronk even 

 

the trick is to find guys and get them where you can. They are the epitome of circling a name, figuring where he is on other boards and going up or down to get him instead of just heaving up a ton of shots 

 

Yep. It isn't so much that the smart teams always trade down. The smart teams tend to make smart decisions. The Patriots famously have a very small board of guys they are interested in. They move around the board a lot to focus on those guys. 

[BillsfaninSB]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’d like to see them stay right where they are and draft Epenesa. He seems like the kind of guy McBeane is looking for. Then get your receiver, Michael Pittman, USC, in Round 2.

I agree with this position unless by some miracle Ruggs is available. 

[JaCrispy]

15 hours ago, H2o said:

Absolutely not. I don't want to trade up if it costs us this year's 2nd tbh. My guy is Claypool. I like Ruggs/Lamb/Jeudy as well and I'm fine with moving up for them as long as it can be done reasonably. I don't want us to do anything stupid though. Injuries can happen at any point and if, God forbid, JA goes down for an extended period of time that 1st next year could be top 5. 

Nice, i like Lamb and Jeudy as my top guys... my fall backs are Mims and Gandy-Golden so far...

[mjt328]

On 2/29/2020 at 9:34 PM, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

 

Of course I don't know what the Bills draft board looks like.

But I think we should be able to get BPA at a position of need, without trading up.

 

In general, I agree with your overall list.  

Three quarterbacks (Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert), two receivers (Jeudy, Lamb), one pass rusher (Young), one linebacker (Simmons) and one cornerback (Okudah) are absolutely certain to be gone.  In addition to Brown at defensive tackle, I would add that Javon Kinlaw will definitely go in the Top 15.  That's a total of ten players we won't have any chance at drafting.

 

So if we are looking for a WR, OT, DE or CB, that leaves us the following:  Ruggs, Shenault, Higgins, Wills, Thomas, Wirfs, Becton, Epenesa, Chaisson, Gross-Matos, Henderson and Fulton.  That's a total of 12 players.  We draft at #22.  So at worst, only ONE of these guys is available.  And if someone like Love, Swift, McKinney, Delpit or another surprise works his way into the top 21 picks (happens every year), the Bills may have their choice from a couple of these guys.

 

Again, it really depends on what the Bills board looks like.  Maybe they don't like some of the guys on my list, and maybe they value some guys higher.  Maybe our needs change drastically after free agency.  But as for now, I don't see trading up as necessary.

 

[947]

The only player I'd make that trade for is CeeDee Lamb. If he's somehow still there, it's worth it. Otherwise, take best available DE/WR at 22.

 

The Falcons are a stud defender & OL help (plus a day 2 RB) away from being a contender again. I don't think they'd move down with a top Defensive player on the board.

[KOKBILLS]

On 3/1/2020 at 8:52 AM, Victory Formation said:

I think Yetur Gross-Matos is the guy at 22. If it weren’t for the hazing incident he’d be a top 15 lock. I think YGM is a 10 sack per year guy and would give us an elite edge rusher. I think the only way we don’t take him is if Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs is there when we pick. 

 

I'm leaning this way as well...Want to see what he runs...But I think what he gives you upside/athlete-wise is superior to Epenesa...Though I have to admit after watching Epenesa on film I was shocked he ran that slow...I figured he was a 4.8 - 4.9 guy...But 5.1??? Wow...I think it does speak to Epenesa's technique because that's zero explosive speed for a DE...

 

I'm really intrigued by Gross-Matos...Like his length and think he can be a long-term-3-down answer for the Bills...

 

We'll see...?

[ILBillsfan]

I think there is serious value in moving up to take on of the top WR's in this years draft if they somehow fall some.  The one thing that I have advocated most of last year is the presence of a true number one WR and this offense will explode. 

[BillsFan17]

1) What position are you moving up the board for?

2) How did the Bills do in FA?

3) Did the Bills extend any of their own?

4) How much capital is it going to cost both this year and next?

 

There are a lot of factors when you look into trading up. I dont expect to Bills to use all nine picks. Very unrealistic to assume nine rookies make the roster. So I can see Beane moving around the board, but the aforementioned factors mentioned will play a big part in where he moves.

[Thurman#1]

Certainly possible, but I doubt they would make any trade that would require then to give away their third-rounder. I mean, if someone they thought was a top seven pick fell, yeah, possible. But when you're trying to build through the draft, a third-rounder is a pick you want to cash in on.

 

We'll see.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 3/1/2020 at 5:32 AM, thebandit27 said:

Nice thread!

 

Your top-12 is probably all gone by pick 15 without question, so the issue becomes who rounds out the final 3 picks of the top 15? My best guess is Chaisson, Kinlaw, and (believe it or not) Jordan Love—gotta figure a team like Indy, TB, or Jax gets desperate and snags a QB.

 

In that scenario, which looks plausible to me , Someone is going to 16 for Ruggs; my guess is Philly.

 

Jordan Love is apparently training with Jordan Palmer.  He seems to be the guy getting the pump-up treatment this year. 

Jordan Palmer, by the way, says that the right comparable for Jordan Love is Pat Mahomes, not Josh Allen.  Heh.

So Love's "camp" is certainly trying to position him into the top 15

 

My take is that there are too many variables right now to predict what the Bills might do.  Beane and Co also seem much better at keeping a "lid" on things and avoiding leaks than previous Bills FOs.

 

After the league year begins and we see what goes down in FA and trade, we should know more.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/1/2020 at 9:39 PM, Dkollidas said:

But staying the course for them would be trading up. 
 

Allen- Traded up for

Edmunds- Traded up for

Ford- Traded up for

Knox- traded up for

 

they have 9 draft picks. Beane has stated he doesn’t believe they have 9 spots on the roster available for draft picks.

 

The patriots were always able to stockpile picks because they got so many comp picks when they let impending free agents leave. 
They traded down as well. But don’t also think that their success wasn’t mostly due to 20yrs of the greatest coach/QB in NFL history 

 

 

I don't think you can call the trade-up for Allen business as usual. It was a very specific thing for a very specific need. Trading up for a franchise QB is a move they absolutely felt they had to make, without a guy like that on the roster and with their rebuild starting with no pick higher than 10th in either of the first two years. The Edmunds pick was one where they had two third-rounders left and were able to give away one and still be able to make a pick in the third. They had tried to trade up higher for a QB, as high as Denver at #5, and would likely have been willing to trade away the pick they traded for Edmunds. It's possible they would have made the trade even if they didn't have that second 3rd rounder, but as far as business as usual ... even including the Allen trade, Beane hasn't traded away any pick without either having made two picks in an earlier round (he traded away the 2019 4th, but had already made four draft picks, a first, a second and two thirds in Singletary and Knox, and the Allen pick when he traded away two 2018 2nds leaving him without a 2nd, but having already made two picks in the first).

 

In fairness, McDermott and Whaley did leave that kind of a blank round in the 4th in 2017. But we haven't seen Beane do that yet, though that certainly doesn't rule out the possibility. In fact, it seems likely they'll do it soon in later rounds, if not this year then soon.

 

You're right that they do trade up for guys like Ford and Knox, but those involved smaller picks being traded away and again, Beane didn't leave any blank rounds unless he'd already essentially made that round's pick but in an earlier round.

 

And yeah, having Brady was huge, but the Pats have stockpiled picks not just through comp  picks. They've also consistently traded a lot, trading down quite a bit more than they traded up.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/4/15/15164566/nfl-draft-trades-patriots-won-bill-belichick

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm

Edited March 5, 2020 by Thurman#1

[dave mcbride]

On 3/1/2020 at 7:39 AM, Dkollidas said:

But staying the course for them would be trading up. 
 

Allen- Traded up for

Edmunds- Traded up for

Ford- Traded up for

Knox- traded up for

 

they have 9 draft picks. Beane has stated he doesn’t believe they have 9 spots on the roster available for draft picks.

 

The patriots were always able to stockpile picks because they got so many comp picks when they let impending free agents leave. 
They traded down as well. But don’t also think that their success wasn’t mostly due to 20yrs of the greatest coach/QB in NFL history 

They traded up for Dawkins too. 

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They traded up for Dawkins too. 

And Zay Jones

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/29/2020 at 7:34 PM, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

Good post and Atlanta is the key spot I’ve been looking at as a trade up position too.  I don’t think all the guys you listed as “for sure” going top 15 are really locks for that.  For example, I’m not sold that both Lamb and Juedy go top 15, it’s not even a lock they are the first two WRs taken either as Ruggs has a case to be in that convo.  
 

But the main issue with you post is the guys they would likely trade up for at 16 you have off the board already.  I don’t think they trade up unless they can get one of these guys:  Juedy, Lamb, Simmons or Chaisson.  Maybe Ruggs, but I’m skeptical they trade up for WR that’s small.  No doubt they would consider Ruggs and even likely take him at 22, but not sure in a deep WR class like this they trade up for a WR under 6 feet tall given current make up of the team.  Main reason is they would still need to probably draft a big target for Josh, so trading more of those draft assists to get a shorter WR would affect their ability to do that and still fill other holes.  
 

I do think that it’s quite possible one of Juedy or Lamb could fall to 16, especially if there is a run on QBs and if Ruggs if one of the first 2 WRs taken.  Simmons is not going to fall that far, but Chaisson could again if there is a run on QBs and a couple WRs go in top 15.

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

I’m thinking we stay at 22 and take Mims.  Seems like a perfect target for Josh.  Then BWA at 54.

[DJB]

On 3/1/2020 at 8:52 AM, Victory Formation said:

I think Yetur Gross-Matos is the guy at 22. If it weren’t for the hazing incident he’d be a top 15 lock. I think YGM is a 10 sack per year guy and would give us an elite edge rusher. I think the only way we don’t take him is if Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs is there when we pick. Guys like Jefferson, Reagor and Aiyuk will be available for us RD2. You go EDGE RD1, WR RD2 and look for a guy like Gandy Golden, Juwan Johnson or KJ Hill RDS 3-5. 

 

Maybe Reagor but the other two will be long gone when we pick round 2