Possibility of trading up to #16 (Atlanta)

[Philly McButterpants]

52 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

But staying the course for them would be trading up. 
 

Allen- Traded up for

Edmunds- Traded up for

Ford- Traded up for

Knox- traded you for

 

 

Gosh - i didn't know i was a part of the package.  ?

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

So the Patriots didn’t trade up for Jerod Mayo, Chandler Jones, and Donte Hightower?

 

There's no hard-and-fast do/don’t rules regarding trades in the draft. Go up when the value is there, go back when the board dictates that it makes sense.

 

For teams that are close to a championship, it may not make sense to trade back and accumulate picks when only 4-5 may make the roster.

 

Re: BPA, pure BPA makes sense on day 3. On day 1/2, it’s BVA—best value available. Positional value is critical—get the best players at premium positions so that you don’t have to pay $20M in FA.

[BringBackOrton]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So the Patriots didn’t trade up for Jerod Mayo, Chandler Jones, and Donte Hightower?

 

There's no hard-and-fast do/don’t rules regarding trades in the draft. Go up when the value is there, go back when the board dictates that it makes sense.

 

For teams that are close to a championship, it may not make sense to trade back and accumulate picks when only 4-5 may make the roster.

 

Re: BPA, pure BPA makes sense on day 3. On day 1/2, it’s BVA—best value available. Positional value is critical—get the best players at premium positions so that you don’t have to pay $20M in FA.

At this rate, more like 30M in FA

[ghostwriter]

I think Yetur Gross-Matos is the guy at 22. If it weren’t for the hazing incident he’d be a top 15 lock. I think YGM is a 10 sack per year guy and would give us an elite edge rusher. I think the only way we don’t take him is if Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs is there when we pick. Guys like Jefferson, Reagor and Aiyuk will be available for us RD2. You go EDGE RD1, WR RD2 and look for a guy like Gandy Golden, Juwan Johnson or KJ Hill RDS 3-5. 

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

At this rate, more like 30M in FA

For a QB yeah. WR and pass rusher are getting 20. Corner and OT are getting 15.

[Saxum]

10 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

 

The best way to trade with Atlanta is to absorb a player whose cap they cannot afford along with pick trades.

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

the pats simply trade a lot. Some up, some down. Up for Hightower, up for chandler jones, up for gronk even 

 

the trick is to find guys and get them where you can. They are the epitome of circling a name, figuring where he is on other boards and going up or down to get him instead of just heaving up a ton of shots 

Edited March 1, 2020 by NoSaint

[Lurker]

20 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

the trick is to find guys and get them where you can. They are the epitome of circling a name, figuring where he is on other boards and going up or down to get him instead of just heaving you a ton of shots 

 

To me, this is how you run a draft.   Find the guys you want, then find ways to get them.

 

To just live with the crap shoot of the normal draft slot selection process seems too passive, in many ways.    If you have to 'settle' for a player after missing out on who you really wanted, you're already behind...   

[Locomark]

12 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

You will have to get to 12/14 to get the next best WR IMO. Denver will be picking one because they need offense. I don’t feel there is a 3rd best edge or CB worthy of a trade down to 16 in his draft.  Can’t wait until FA, because then we will know our true cards. 

Edited March 1, 2020 by Locomark

[Dkollidas]

51 minutes ago, Locomark said:

You will have to get to 12/14 to get the next best WR IMO. Denver will be picking one because they need offense. I don’t feel there is a 3rd best edge or CB worthy of a trade down to 16 in his draft.  Can’t wait until FA, because then we will know our true cards. 

Denver could go a lot of directions. WR, CB, Safety would all be in play and especially O-Line if any of the top-4 tackles make it that far. 

[White Linen]

4 hours ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

 

That's not true as a blanket statement. 

[formerlyofCtown]

13 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

I think we will have a be tree idea after The FA period.

4 hours ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

The draft is more like a fishing tournament.  I do both.  I fair much better in fishing because of my knowledge of the fish.  Lottery is all luck.  (Apparently Sammy Watkins got bit by a shark while we were reeling him in)

Edited March 1, 2020 by formerlyofCtown

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Obviously can’t speak for Beane, but having no picks between the 2nd and 5th rounds is too much for me, especially with this draft class.

 

My guess is we stay at 22 and Beane uses the extra Day 3 picks to move up in the 3rd or 4th round.

That's exactly what he's going to do. There will not be any generational players there at 16. Ruggs is fast but what if he turns into a Tavon Austin? Keep your picks and use them all. Take advantage of an amazing wr group. Find your edge rusher in FA. Don't give up draft capital for another Sammy.....

[JaCrispy]

I really don’t like the idea of trading up in round 1...it is extremely costly...and because JA is not a sure thing, you need other top players on the team...if he was a top 10 QB I would say go for it!

[Dkollidas]

3 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

To me, this is how you run a draft.   Find the guys you want, then find ways to get them.

 

To just live with the crap shoot of the normal draft slot selection process seems too passive, in many ways.    If you have to 'settle' for a player after missing out on who you really wanted, you're already behind...   

that seems like exactly what Beane has done over the past two years and I expect

more of the same this year. 

[H2o]

46 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I really don’t like the idea of trading up in round 1...it is extremely costly...and because JA is not a sure thing, you need other top players on the team...if he was a top 10 QB I would say go for it!

Oh ye of little faith my Crispy friend. I think it would be the opposite, that they would trade up for what they percieve as an elite weopon on offense because they do believe Josh is exactly what they drafted him to be. Still think it hinges on what we accomplish in FA though. 

[JaCrispy]

27 minutes ago, H2o said:

Oh ye of little faith my Crispy friend. I think it would be the opposite, that they would trade up for what they percieve as an elite weopon on offense because they do believe Josh is exactly what they drafted him to be. Still think it hinges on what we accomplish in FA though. 

I hope you’re right H2o...?

 

But what worries me is the Bears are all ready to move on from Trubisky after 3 seasons and he has very similar stats to JA...

 

He doesn’t even have to be elite, I will settle for just a top 15 passer from JA and I will sell my soul...?

[Bulldog]

20 minutes ago, H2o said:

Oh ye of little faith my Crispy friend. I think it would be the opposite, that they would trade up for what they percieve as an elite weopon on offense because they do believe Josh is exactly what they drafted him to be. Still think it hinges on what we accomplish in FA though. 

 

I also believe  that Beane would be willing to give up a limited amount of assets to acquire an "elite" weapon to pair with Josh Allen. I am no expert on college football or the ability to effectively scout college prospects - but I think that I can tell that Beane & McDermott are definitely "all in" on Josh Allen. There may still be doubts in some of our minds - but there appear to be none in the minds of the GM & Coach. If they believe that a key piece can be had a few spots higher than were they sit at #22 - I have no doubt that a move up by them is quite possible.

Generally I tend to see the only worthwhile 1st round trade up is for a potential franchise quarterback - too much capital is required for the move to make any other position worthwhile. That's probably the reason that I am just a guy commenting on a board - I'm not daring enough to be an actual successful NFL executive.

      

[BringBackOrton]

6 hours ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

Yeah, the Bills certainly looked like geniuses with multiple lotto tickets spent on Zay, Ray Ray, and Austin Proehl instead of using one taking JuJu or Kupp. 

 

5/6/7 round picks almost never pan out. That’s why guys like Brady and AB were treated like miracles. They were.

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

For a QB yeah. WR and pass rusher are getting 20. Corner and OT are getting 15.

In two years, you will see DE’s approaching 30M I think.

[Just Joshin']

6 hours ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

Any fixed strategy is not a good strategy.  Actions need to be situational, not set in concrete.  Trading back is a viable strategy but if Ruggs is available @22 do you trade down?  I hope not.