Possibility of trading up to #16 (Atlanta)

[Dkollidas]

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

[Augie]

This is better reasoned and argued than simply “we should trade up.”  I can see the argument for sure, but again, it depends upon how the picks fall and what their board looks like. I’m serious, being in their draft room, seeing their board and hearing how this all goes down would be near the top of the pyramid on bucket list items. I mean, how AWESOME would that be? 

 

This is good food for thought. 

[PIZ]

18 minutes ago, Augie said:

This is better reasoned and argued than simply “we should trade up.”  I can see the argument for sure, but again, it depends upon how the picks fall and what their board looks like. I’m serious, being in their draft room, seeing their board and hearing how this all goes down would be near the top of the pyramid on bucket list items. I mean, how AWESOME would that be? 

 

This is good food for thought. 

I once was asked in an interview “if you could be anywhere, where would you choose”? I said “in the Buffalo Bills war room on draft day”.

 

 

[Dkollidas]

20 minutes ago, Augie said:

This is better reasoned and argued than simply “we should trade up.”  I can see the argument for sure, but again, it depends upon how the picks fall and what their board looks like. I’m serious, being in their draft room, seeing their board and hearing how this all goes down would be near the top of the pyramid on bucket list items. I mean, how AWESOME would that be? 

 

This is good food for thought. 

Agreed it depends on how it all falls. But I believe that if one of Ruggs/Chaisson is there at 16 you make the move. Dallas could go for either. Same goes with Miami, Oakland, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. All could go Edge and/or WR. 

[PIZ]

36 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

I think Beane would only trade up to # 16 for Chaisson. I hope he does. Not sure that he’ll be there though. He will add much needed speed / pass rush ability to the DL. He’s a freaky beast. He’s the guy I’m honing in on as the Bills 1st round target. 
 

 

Edited March 1, 2020 by PIZ

[The Firebaugh Kid]

54 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

Giving up waaaaay too much to not get Lamb or Jeudy.

[thebandit27]

Nice thread!

 

Your top-12 is probably all gone by pick 15 without question, so the issue becomes who rounds out the final 3 picks of the top 15? My best guess is Chaisson, Kinlaw, and (believe it or not) Jordan Love—gotta figure a team like Indy, TB, or Jax gets desperate and snags a QB.

 

In that scenario, which looks plausible to me , Someone is going to 16 for Ruggs; my guess is Philly.

[DCOrange]

Obviously can’t speak for Beane, but having no picks between the 2nd and 5th rounds is too much for me, especially with this draft class.

 

My guess is we stay at 22 and Beane uses the extra Day 3 picks to move up in the 3rd or 4th round.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Obviously can’t speak for Beane, but having no picks between the 2nd and 5th rounds is too much for me, especially with this draft class.

 

My guess is we stay at 22 and Beane uses the extra Day 3 picks to move up in the 3rd or 4th round.

 

 

...would you trade down to let's say 27, to hopefully pick up an extra 2nd?.............

[cage]

10 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...would you trade down to let's say 27, to hopefully pick up an extra 2nd?.............

 

I think you'd only get a 3rd for that, so late in the round.  That would be OK, but it depends on who's on the board at the time.  If someone like Chaisson ever fell, I'm sure we'd be grabbing him at #22. 

[Nextmanup]

There is no scenario where I would want to see this team trade up.

 

Unless they are going to go way, way up and take a QB.

 

Otherwise, stupid to trade up.  Trade down.

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Looking in a basic way, Atlanta is hard up against the cap and doesn’t have a ton of leeway. Cutting guys like Freeman, Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo and a couple others only gets them to about $21M in cap space.

They currently have an extra 2nd round pick and dealt away their 6th round pick. But with only $20M or so to play with, and a roster in need of improvements, I’d expect them to be looking to move down and add depth pieces throughout the roster. 
 

Buffalo will want to add an edge, receiver, Corner, or offensive lineman in round 1. I believe the need and preference will be geared towards receiver or edge. Looking at the first round, in the top 15 picks I expect the following to be chosen.

 

For sure:

3 QB’s (Burrow, Tua & Herbert)

2 WR’s (Lamb & Jeudy)

3 OT’s (3 of Wirfs, Wills, Becton, Thomas)

1 Edge (Young)

1 DT Brown

1 LB Simmons

1 Corner (Okudah) 

 

That’s 12 players. 

 

We also have another group of possibilities that will come after that including:

1 WR (Ruggs III)

1 OT (Whichever of the 3 is not taken top 12)

2 Edge (Chaisson Epenesa) 

2 Corners (Fulton & Henderson)

 

So overall there’s a drop of talent around 16-18. I believe Beane will want to get there because (1) he has extra capital, (2) there’s players at need positions there, (3) he knows he needs to add key fixtures to edge and receiver and that they are value positions that should be drafted highly, and (4) he’s shown a history for trading up.

 

Lastly, the cost shouldn’t be significant. 
Pittsburgh in 2019 trade #20 #52 and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to #10.

 

I believe we could send picks #22, 86, and 118 in order to move up to #16. 
 

That would still leave us with our 2nd round pick #54, two 5th’s and three 6th’s. 

 

 

Depending who is there I can see this. My gut says it would have to be for one of the top 3 receivers though. 

[jav]

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, jav said:

Shrewd front offices trade down--not up. The Patriots dynasty was in large part built on this principle. The point is, there is no sure thing in the draft--assuming otherwise is arrogant and foolish. And our previous experience trading up supports this (JP Losman, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins, etc.). The draft is like a lottery,--the more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning.  To borrow an NHL analogy, more shots on goal usually results in more goals scored. I think the Bills should stay the course: re-sign/extend core players, fill needs with free agents, then draft BPA--you can rarely go wrong drafting BPA, because those are the players that are truly difference-makers.

But staying the course for them would be trading up. 
 

Allen- Traded up for

Edmunds- Traded up for

Ford- Traded up for

Knox- traded up for

 

they have 9 draft picks. Beane has stated he doesn’t believe they have 9 spots on the roster available for draft picks.

 

The patriots were always able to stockpile picks because they got so many comp picks when they let impending free agents leave. 
They traded down as well. But don’t also think that their success wasn’t mostly due to 20yrs of the greatest coach/QB in NFL history 

Edited March 1, 2020 by Dkollidas

[H2o]

It just depends on how much the Bills like said player. Whether that player be Ruggs, Chiasson, or whoever. They are not afraid to maneuver anywhere on the board and it has been proven the last couple of years. If they feel a player of significantly higher value has fallen to a spot where they feel justified in moving up for the cost it takes then they will. 

 

All that being said, I am not feeling a trade up in the first this year at the moment. Once the chips settle in FA then possibly, but right now I would say no. If we plug what are considered holes in FA with proven vets then I would say yes, they will be making a move up. The three position groups I am watching are OL, DE, and WR. I think whatever we don't address in FA will be our 1st Round draft selection. Not necessarily out of need, but because that is where they feel their own BPA lies. 

[KGun12TD]

8 hours ago, PIZ said:

I once was asked in an interview “if you could be anywhere, where would you choose”? I said “in the Buffalo Bills war room on draft day”.

 

 

I was once asked and I said “right here, right now”.

 

?

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...would you trade down to let's say 27, to hopefully pick up an extra 2nd?.............

I almost certainly would, but I don't think Beane would. I think this draft is likely perfect for a trade-down for us barring something unforeseen happening ahead of us.

[IgotBILLStopay]

yes Atlanta at #16 is a possible trading partner ..but if trading up, why not trade with TB at #14 instead? Denver at #15 is likely taking a receiver.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

There is no scenario where I would want to see this team trade up.

 

Unless they are going to go way, way up and take a QB.

 

Otherwise, stupid to trade up.  Trade down.

 

Nah, this is absolutely the right year to trade up if we can get good value.  We have nine draft picks.  Nine rookies are not making this roster.  Might as well spend a few to get the guys we really want, if they're there.

[SoCal Deek]

I’d like to see them stay right where they are and draft Epenesa. He seems like the kind of guy McBeane is looking for. Then get your receiver, Michael Pittman, USC, in Round 2.