Trade back into the first

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

If Ruggs fell to 22 do you trade back?  Epenesa?

If Ruggs fell to 22 you SPRINT to the podium

[Nester]

Trade into the early 2nd if anything keeping 22 and 54! Go do magic BB

[whorlnut]

11 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We have enough draft capital to trade back in without giving up next years first.

Fair enough...

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Then I guess we disagree on that. This year I’d love one of those 3. I’m not moving up to a spot that will require next year’s first to do it. 

 

I just don't know what you're worried about missing next year. Yes if Josh Allen gets injured that trade would turn out to be awful. Is that your only concern? Or are you also worried about losing a bottom of the 1st round player?

 

There aren't usually any blue chippers in the 1st round outside of the top 10. There might only be 20 players with 1st round draft grades in a given year. So if you're telling me I can trade 2 players with high 2nd round grades for a player with a 1st round grade who also happens to fill a massive need, I'm taking that deal every time.

 

I actually think it's crazy that any of these 3 receivers will end up outside of the top 10 but teams aren't that smart so it will probably happen. I'm hoping other teams have that mindset of "this draft has plenty of WRs so instead of taking an incredible WR prospect like Ceedee Lamb at #10 I'll take an offensive tackle and settle for Michael Pittman in the 2nd." I can guarantee you right now the team that takes one of those top 3 receivers in the top 10 will end up happier than the team that drafts Tristan Wirfs. I would bet serious money that the 3rd WR taken in this draft will end up contributing to his team's success more than the 1st O-lineman taken.

 

Also I just generally trust this regime's ability to find contributing players in the 2nd and lower rounds. We already have an extra 1st round pick in Edmunds. We'll be alright without one next year.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I just don't know what you're worried about missing next year. Yes if Josh Allen gets injured that trade would turn out to be awful. Is that your only concern? Or are you also worried about losing a bottom of the 1st round player?

 

There aren't usually any blue chippers in the 1st round outside of the top 10. There might only be 20 players with 1st round draft grades in a given year. So if you're telling me I can trade 2 players with high 2nd round grades for a player with a 1st round grade who also happens to fill a massive need, I'm taking that deal every time.

 

I actually think it's crazy that any of these 3 receivers will end up outside of the top 10 but teams aren't that smart so it will probably happen. I'm hoping other teams have that mindset of "this draft has plenty of WRs so instead of taking an incredible WR prospect like Ceedee Lamb at #10 I'll take an offensive tackle and settle for Michael Pittman in the 2nd." I can guarantee you right now the team that takes one of those top 3 receivers in the top 10 will end up happier than the team that drafts Tristan Wirfs. I would bet serious money that the 3rd WR taken in this draft will end up contributing to his team's success more than the 1st O-lineman taken.

 

Also I just generally trust this regime's ability to find contributing players in the 2nd and lower rounds. We already have an extra 1st round pick in Edmunds. We'll be alright without one next year.

I never like the idea of trading an unknown for an unknown (QB excluded). If I knew that the Bills 2021 pick would be 25, cool. Things happen though. If I’m trading next year’s 1st is only do it for a proven star. I’d do it for OBJ for example. I’m not trading 22 and a 2021 1st that could be anywhere for a prospect regardless of how much I like him. I loved Sammy coming out. I had no issue with the move for him at the time. It turns out I was wrong. The idea of trading pick number 22 & ? for a ? doesn’t work for me. 

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I never like the idea of trading an unknown for an unknown (QB excluded)

 

I mean that's the draft. Everything is relatively unknown, you're just trying to maximize your chances to get elite players. I don't know for sure if Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs will be elite but I'll be really surprised if any of them outright bust. Jeudy is the one that somewhat concerns me, kind of reminds me of Amari Cooper actually with the concentration drops. But there's always risks involved no matter what you do. Trading down always sounds great but what if you miss on both players that you trade down for?

 

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I loved Sammy coming out. I had no issue with the move for him at the time. It turns out I was wrong.

 

And I would agree Sammy is the cautionary tale but if that's the worst case scenario it's not a huge deal. The players we missed out on in the range of our original pick in 2015 are not worth kicking ourselves over. Look at any draft in the 18-30 range, there aren't a lot of standouts. So in your worst case scenario we end up with a player who is still a high end #2, and we miss out on drafting a low probability lottery ticket. That's the downside of what I'm proposing. The upside is we get a generational #1 WR that helps our young QB develop and makes our offense difficult to stop.

 

Or even the absolute worst case scenario where Allen gets injured and we lose out on a draft pick that would have been in the top 10. Then the following year Allen will be back and we would still have the true #1 WR on our team for years to come. I mean that's still a very unlikely scenario but even if it happens I think you're overselling the long term impact. I'm not asking for us to be the Rams. It's just one 1st round pick. Teams miss on those all the time without trading for anything.

Edited February 29, 2020 by HappyDays

[formerlyofCtown]

16 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Fair enough...

For the record I would not be opposed to trading back in.

[whorlnut]

My biggest argument in this is do you really believe the Steelers are missing their first rounder this year?  They got Minkah Fitzpatrick which has seemed to set their defense up for years to come. My point is if Beane identifies a guy that is falling and he thinks he’s a difference maker I couldn’t be shocked at all to see him make a move. Would it be a package of this years picks?  Maybe. Next year’s?  Who knows. I just don’t think he’s afraid at all believing in his board and going with his gut. 

[Kirby Jackson]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean that's the draft. Everything is relatively unknown, you're just trying to maximize your chances to get elite players. I don't know for sure if Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs will be elite but I'll be really surprised if any of them outright bust. Jeudy is the one that somewhat concerns me, kind of reminds me of Amari Cooper actually with the concentration drops. But there's always risks involved no matter what you do. Trading down always sounds great but what if you miss on both players that you trade down for?

 

 

And I would agree Sammy is the cautionary tale but if that's the worst case scenario it's not a huge deal. The players we missed out on in the range of our original pick in 2015 are not worth kicking ourselves over. Look at any draft in the 18-30 range, there aren't a lot of standouts. So in your worst case scenario we end up with a player who is still a high end #2, and we miss out on drafting a low probability lottery ticket. That's the downside of what I'm proposing. The upside is we get a generational #1 WR that helps our young QB develop and makes our offense difficult to stop.

 

Or even the absolute worst case scenario where Allen gets injured and we lose out on a draft pick that would have been in the top 10. Then the following year Allen will be back and we would still have the true #1 WR on our team for years to come. I mean that's still a very unlikely scenario but even if it happens I think you're overselling the long term impact. I'm not asking for us to be the Rams. It's just one 1st round pick. Teams miss on those all the time without trading for anything.

The worst case scenario is that Allen gets hurt and our tough schedule proves too much. We bottom out and have a top 5 pick that we’ve traded away. If the cost is a 2021 1st I’m out.
 

I’d rather have Jefferson + my 2021 pick than only Jeudy/Ruggs/Lamb. I HATE the idea of a future 1st for a prospect. 
 

EDIT: Just to clarify if you could add protections like in the NBA I’d be fine with it. A top 15 protected 1st or whatever. There is just too much uncertainty and parody in the NFL for me to trade an asset that I have no idea what it is.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[BringBackOrton]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The worst case scenario is that Allen gets hurt and our tough schedule proves too much. We bottom out and have a top 5 pick that we’ve traded away. If the cost is a 2021 1st I’m out.
 

I’d rather have Jefferson + my 2021 pick than only Jeudy/Ruggs/Lamb. I HATE the idea of a future 1st for a prospect. 
 

EDIT: Just to clarify if you could add protections like in the NBA I’d be fine with it. A top 15 protected 1st or whatever. There is just too much uncertainty and parody in the NFL for me to trade an asset that I have no idea what it is.

You're right. There is uncertainty and parity in the NFL, and every year, 27 teams suit up without a top 5 first round pick that year.

 

You are falling into the "omg cap space" argument for draft picks.  There are always more draft picks bro.  Always.  You lose one on a bust QB and you still get one next year. You lose one on a trade up for a WR and you still get one next year.

 

The only uncertainty is if there's going to be a first round talent, BPA, at a position of need next year where'd you be picking. But bird in the hand and all that. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

You're right. There is uncertainty and parity in the NFL, and every year, 27 teams suit up without a top 5 first round pick that year.

 

You are falling into the "omg cap space" argument for draft picks.  There are always more draft picks bro.  Always.  You lose one on a bust QB and you still get one next year. You lose one on a trade up for a WR and you still get one next year.

 

The only uncertainty is if there's going to be a first round talent, BPA, at a position of need next year where'd you be picking. But bird in the hand and all that. 

I guess it probably sounds like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth. I’m not, at all, opposed to trading up. I just would do so with this year’s picks and players. I’d use 2021 picks after the 1st. To me, that’s just a gamble that I’d never take. 

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The worst case scenario is that Allen gets hurt and our tough schedule proves too much. We bottom out and have a top 5 pick that we’ve traded away. If the cost is a 2021 1st I’m out.

 

I don't see how we draft in the top 5 next year regardless of what happens. In 2014 our starting QBs were EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton and we ended up with the 19th pick. And either way that risk just doesn't factor into my decision making at all. I know that Lamb, Ruggs, or Jeudy will immediately fill our biggest need. I know that Beane has admitted he needs to find a receiver that Allen can trust on every down. If we don't get that player this year it will still be our biggest need next year so in that case we're probably drafting a WR in the 1st next year anyways. It's a wash. I'd rather just grab that player this year when I know they're obtainable.

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess it probably sounds like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth. I’m not, at all, opposed to trading up. I just would do so with this year’s picks and players. I’d use 2021 picks after the 1st. To me, that’s just a gamble that I’d never take. 

Trading next year's first is always a gamble.  It's not ideal.  There's better deals.  But the Falcons wouldn't have gotten Julio without gambling.

[whorlnut]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't see how we draft in the top 5 next year regardless of what happens. In 2014 our starting QBs were EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton and we ended up with the 19th pick. And either way that risk just doesn't factor into my decision making at all. I know that Lamb, Ruggs, or Jeudy will immediately fill our biggest need. I know that Beane has admitted he needs to find a receiver that Allen can trust on every down. If we don't get that player this year it will still be our biggest need next year so in that case we're probably drafting a WR in the 1st next year anyways. It's a wash. I'd rather just grab that player this year when I know they're obtainable.

Exactly. In my scenario, all we would be doing is using next year’s first rounder a year early. You’re right. It would essentially wash out. 
 

That said, it’s all hypothetical and was meant to create a discussion, but it obviously got a little too heated. We have to see what plays out. 

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess it probably sounds like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth. I’m not, at all, opposed to trading up. I just would do so with this year’s picks and players. I’d use 2021 picks after the 1st. To me, that’s just a gamble that I’d never take. 

 

I think there is a decent chance we could get one of those receivers without giving up a 1st but it depends. If one of them is still there at 14 our 2nd should get it done. That's obviously the preferred scenario. Teams may decide they can wait on a WR so the depth of the class works in our favor.

[whorlnut]

By the way...I found it...Baltimore was at 52 in 2018 and traded that pick, 125 and the following year’s 2nd to get pick 32 and Lamar Jackson. Would that make everyone feel better?

 

They also took Hayden Hurst at 25, so the draft slot positioning is eerily similar...

Edited February 29, 2020 by whorlnut

[mikemac2001]

4 hours ago, Mountain Man said:

People trade back into the 1st for the 5th year option on QBs

 

Or the saints did it for a 2 years back DE it happens all the time, vikes did it for a safety 

 

teams have traded a future 1st for a current year first the value is not that far off.
 

I’m not saying to do it but the comment I was responding to was acting like this never happens 

 

 

[whorlnut]

5 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

 

Or the saints did it for a 2 years back DE it happens all the time, vikes did it for a safety 

 

teams have traded a future 1st for a current year first the value is not that far off.
 

I’m not saying to do it but the comment I was responding to was acting like this never happens 

 

 

Skins did it last year to go up and get Sweat. Giants came up to get a corner. And the Falcons moved back into the bottom to get Kaleb McGary. Teams do it all the time when they feel they need to make a move for a guy that starts falling...

Edited February 29, 2020 by whorlnut

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Ok guys...I’ll try to make everyone feel “better”. Forget about the first next year. Let’s trade a combo of picks this year to get back into 1. I’m not about to sit at 54 (if I’m Beane) and hope a guy that I love falls. He’s shown the propensity to move up when someone is sticking out, so I think all the chips are on the table THIS year...

 

I can can imagine the trade up. Just not back into the 1st. I can see them jumping up within round 2. 

9 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

 

Or the saints did it for a 2 years back DE it happens all the time, vikes did it for a safety 

 

teams have traded a future 1st for a current year first the value is not that far off.
 

I’m not saying to do it but the comment I was responding to was acting like this never happens 

 

 

 

The Saints were not trading back into the 1st. They were trading up within the first. They gave their 2018 first and their future first (2019) plus a 5th rounder to get Green Bay's first round pick and take Davenport. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

So many known guys I'd rather target... McCaffrey, Bosa Bros, Watt Bros, Kupp.