Jordan Palmer on Josh Allen

[Saxum]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And that's where your point, I guess Palmer's point, kicks in.   The very last bit of information that comes available is where the opening is on the field, where the relatively safe space is, where the place is where the probability of a completion is highest.   Sometimes the receiver can see it, but more often it's the QB who can see it.  By making the throw to that space, the QB transmits the last piece of information to the receiver - the receiver looks back, sees where the ball is going (usually his defender doesn't see it as early in the play), and the receiver adjusts his route.   

 

That's why experience and repetitions between QB and receivers are so important.  The receiver has to learn to be open to that last bit of information, has to trust it, and has to understand that although he have thought he knew what his route was supposed to be, he's being told by the quarterback how the play is changing as the positioning of the defense unfolds.   I think a lot receivers tendency is to go where THEY think the play is, and they have to learn to have a different habit. 

 

This is exactly how it worked with Stevie and Fitz (you remember, our pair which has 3 1000 yard seasons?) - the two were in sync and Fitz understood where opening was and Stevie would get there even if Stevie did not run route as planned.  Fitz does not have Allen's arm (although he still makes the yards despite it).  I'd love for North Cuba to do something really stupid like trade up, take QB, cut Fitz keeping Rosen as backup and Bills pick Fitz up to back up Allen.  Both will not quit.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

I think you're getting Carson and Jordan mixed up. No way Jordan has a 60 million dollar net worth.

 

The Interwebs estimate $2M.  He had career earnings of $2.2M over 7 seasons, after Uncle Sam takes his cut that seems reasonable given possible investments etc.
In the 6 years since then, he's built himself a nice business but he certainly had to build it up. 

 

If some of his protegees succeed (Allen, Darnold etc) that will give him a huge boost and he might be worth $60M someday.

 

[krf139]

16 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Palmer said he believes Allen will be a top ten deep ball thrower next year because his pattern has been when he sees a problem he corrects it. 
 

Said Beane and McD are the right guys for Allen. 
 

Mentioned that Allen wants to be a Bill his entire career and he wants to be great. He’s been working his tail off since he got there and Allen and Buffalo are one of the all time great fits. 
 

Good stuff. I recommend listening to it. 

EJ said the same things if I recall.

[BarleyNY]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's complicated.   One thing the commentators on TV are good at, and I generally don't think they're good at much, is the point they make about defenders in man turn their backs to the offensive backfield and defenders in zone are looking into the backfield.    In 2018, Allen really hurt people running out of the pocket against man-to-man - he had some enormous wide-open spaces to run to, so it isn't surprising that in 2019 he saw more zone and his running effectiveness declined some.  Essentially, Allen's running ability forces teams into more zone than they might want to play against him.  

I think that is true, but I also think they’re learning that mixing up what they do with their free defenders in C1 and C0 is much more effective.  Allen did effectively hit quick slants against those defenses.  That’s the one pass that hurt teams that played it a lot.  Now I expect them to disguise and alternate using the free defenders to blitz, drop into shallow coverage to take away that quick slant and spy Allen.  In fact it’s easy to have a player do a combination of those on the same play: shallow zone to spy, spy to delayed blitz and shallow zone to delayed blitz are all good tactics.

 

One more thing on the deep throws.  Allen rarely lifted those passes properly.  Often he floated lofts too far off the mark or threw hard, without loft so WRs couldn’t adjust.  Getting used to the proper trajectory is something that I believe can be learned.  That’s what I’ll be looking for this fall.  

[badassgixxer05]

38 minutes ago, krf139 said:

EJ said the same things if I recall.

I was thinking this same thing, but I never recall seeing the same hunger from EJ. I'm sure everyone wants to be great, but only few have that drive to accomplish such.

[Dopey]

16 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thanks for summarizing it.  But isn’t he Allen’s qb coach that works with him in the offseason.  I mean what else is he supposed to say?

 

i think it would be interesting to hear his criticisms of Allen and things he needs to improve on.

Just come here. 

[whorlnut]

46 minutes ago, krf139 said:

EJ said the same things if I recall.

Derp...

 

You’re completely clueless if you think Allen and EJ have anything in common other than they both play qb dnd were drafted by the Bills, then I have nothing for you...

Edited February 28, 2020 by whorlnut

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I think that is true, but I also think they’re learning that mixing up what they do with their free defenders in C1 and C0 is much more effective.  Allen did effectively hit quick slants against those defenses.  That’s the one pass that hurt teams that played it a lot.  Now I expect them to disguise and alternate using the free defenders to blitz, drop into shallow coverage to take away that quick slant and spy Allen.  In fact it’s easy to have a player do a combination of those on the same play: shallow zone to spy, spy to delayed blitz and shallow zone to delayed blitz are all good tactics.

 

One more thing on the deep throws.  Allen rarely lifted those passes properly.  Often he floated lofts too far off the mark or threw hard, without loft so WRs couldn’t adjust.  Getting used to the proper trajectory is something that I believe can be learned.  That’s what I’ll be looking for this fall.  

Thanks.  I agree with these comments.   Deep balls particularly.  Russell Wilson amazes me with the accuracy of his deep balls, and he is the king of loft.   It seems almost comical sometimes, how high he throws it, but it comes down in a great spot for the receiver, time and again.  

 

As for the C1 and C0, I think that's right.   It's part of the ongoing evolution, offense vs. defense.   Allen fell short in 2019 reading and reacting to the cover zero, which isn't surprising in a young quarterback.   That's where is determination and competitiveness will come in.   He will be taught to respond to those defenses; in 2019 sometimes those higher pressure defensive tactics flustered him.   I expect he will be better in 2020.   And that's where the discussion of Daboll begins, because it's Daboll's job to have play designs that are effective against those defenses and to teach Allen how to get into the right plays.  Maybe he had those play designs in 2019 and Allen just wasn't good enough yet to manage that level of complexity.  If Allen doesn't improve in this area in 2020, either Allen or Daboll will be hitting a ceiling that he's supposed to be able to get beyond.   

[warrior9]

11 hours ago, LB48 said:

I Must Comment on the entire Jordan Palmer SCAM!  He's created a BRAND NAME for himself with nothing to back it up!

He played three years in the NFL and never started a game.  He completed 11 passes for 66 total yards, no TD's and 2 interceptions.

IF you THINK his $61 million dollar NET WORTH at age 35 came from his playing career you are very naive!

 

He's built up a wonderful 'guru' camp that appeals to young QB's that helps them with their self-confidence.  Footwork and accuracy are normally a natural reaction and not able to be taught.  When the pressure comes you revert to your natural instincts.

 

 

 

Yeah Belicheck is a scam too man..

 

He was a HORRIBLE football player.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said:

I was thinking this same thing, but I never recall seeing the same hunger from EJ. I'm sure everyone wants to be great, but only few have that drive to accomplish such.

Absolutely.   It's the drive that McBeane identified and made them so high on Allen.   EJ was a nice guy, but his approach seemed so passive.   He seemed to think "I'll do my best and take what I get."   Allen is much like "I will get better until I get what I want."

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Absolutely.   It's the drive that McBeane identified and made them so high on Allen.   EJ was a nice guy, but his approach seemed so passive.   He seemed to think "I'll do my best and take what I get."   Allen is much like "I will get better until I get what I want."

I definitely agree with this.  EJ was terribly developed but I do think he was too nice of a guy and played like a robot.  One thing I don’t question about Allen is his attitude.  For better or worse, he is going to try to win every play. I think EJ would have been a much better qb if he had Allen’s attitude.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I definitely agree with this.  EJ was terribly developed but I do think he was too nice of a guy and played like a robot.  One thing I don’t question about Allen is his attitude.  For better or worse, he is going to try to win every play. I think EJ would have been a much better qb if he had Allen’s attitude.

Yeah, I agree.   Allen is better athletically, but not by a lot.   All you ever hear about Allen is how intense a competitor he is, how his almost desperate to correct his mistakes and play better.  We never heard that about EJ.   EJ would say he wanted to get better, but I never saw that desire burning in him.  

[eball]

On 2/27/2020 at 4:24 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thanks for summarizing it.  But isn’t he Allen’s qb coach that works with him in the offseason.  I mean what else is he supposed to say?

 

i think it would be interesting to hear his criticisms of Allen and things he needs to improve on.

 

Oh brother.  Just don't visit a Jordan Palmer thread if you aren't going to accept anything he says because he is Allen's paid coach, ok?  It will save you a lot of trouble and it will save us from having to read this when we are actually interested in what he's saying.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
inappropriate language

[GG]

17 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thanks for summarizing it.  But isn’t he Allen’s qb coach that works with him in the offseason.  I mean what else is he supposed to say?

 

i think it would be interesting to hear his criticisms of Allen and things he needs to improve on.

 

Palmer was far more direct about Josh's weaknesses than you think.

 

He acknowledged his weaknesses with the long ball and footwork this year, and their plans to fix it in the offseason.  As others said, he feels that Allen has the right mental and physical make up to overcome the deficiencies.

 

Also notable is that Palmer admitted that Allen is further along in his development than Palmer thought he'd be at this point.  He said that in college, Allen never really showed the capacity to take over games like he has in some of his NFL outings.  That was surprising to Palmer and he hopes to build on that for the next season.

 

Regarding the coaching staff, he made interesting admission that he has a good relationship with McD's staff and his offseason program is somewhat tailored to what the Bills want to fix and implement.  He doesn't have the attitude of "I'm the offseason coach, and this is what I'm going to do with Josh, come hell or high water."

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Palmer was far more direct about Josh's weaknesses than you think.

 

He acknowledged his weaknesses with the long ball and footwork this year, and their plans to fix it in the offseason.  As others said, he feels that Allen has the right mental and physical make up to overcome the deficiencies.

 

Also notable is that Palmer admitted that Allen is further along in his development than Palmer thought he'd be at this point.  He said that in college, Allen never really showed the capacity to take over games like he has in some of his NFL outings.  That was surprising to Palmer and he hopes to build on that for the next season.

 

Regarding the coaching staff, he made interesting admission that he has a good relationship with McD's staff and his offseason program is somewhat tailored to what the Bills want to fix and implement.  He doesn't have the attitude of "I'm the offseason coach, and this is what I'm going to do with Josh, come hell or high water."

 

 

Those are good points.    Of course, Palmer is Allen's coach and he isn't going to be directly negative about Allen's abilities.   No one should expect to hear direct criticism from him, but that doesn't mean that he's insincere about the positive things he says.    He can be honest about the positive things he says without saying some of the negative things he may think.   

 

And as you say, simply by talking about the work they've been doing in the off season, Palmer is revealing the areas where he and Allen believe Allen needs work.  

[eball]

Great, great listen for those who don't have a predisposed notion to discredit anything Palmer says about Allen.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I didn’t and just read the posted summary.  Thanks for the additional information.  
 

I would love to hear from a DC who gameplanned against Allen.  I’m a big fan of learning from your weaknesses.  

Agreed.  It’s just weird that the deep ball was his best attribute and then it fell off this year with more speed on the field.  
 

im a big fan of taking a lot of deep shots a game because with this soft league now that hates defense, there’s a good shot to get a PI and worst case scenario, if intercepted, it’s like a punt.

 

My opinion: The deep ball was never Josh Allen’s best attribute and it wasn’t that great last year.  From NextGen Charts:

2018 passer rating beyond 20 yds: L 66.1 center 0.0 R 77.8

2019 passer rating beyond 20 yds: L 77.1 center 39.6 R 57.0

(the L and R both score as “average”, meaning within a SD of average. The center is Below average Both years but improved)

Keep in mind these are low-frequency and low-percentage throws for most QB so a couple throws influence heavily, and that it’s passer rating meaning INTs decrease it.   Point is, increase on L and center, decrease on R.

 

What Allen needs most IMO, is a reliable deep post to get teams out of Blitz0, coupled with reliable protection to let him set his feet and throw it.

 

He had good timing worked out with Tanner Gentry at Wyo.  But he overthrew guys his Sr year.  He overthrew guys at his pro day (go watch).  And he overthrew guys until they put Foster in late last year.  Without a lot of game tape, Foster could get off the line clean and run like hell and actually catch up to the balls Allen was throwing.  I don’t think Foster ever showed good abilities to track and adjust to the ball in the air, he was just fast enough to run under whatever Josh could throw.  This year he may have been injury-hampered, plus teams got the memo, jam that guy up on the line and PI him if you must, don’t let him run by you.  And they did.

 

I do think Daboll and McDermott put the Fear of Interceptions in Allen’s head after week 3 and he hesitated to throw back shoulder routes the WR could adjust to after that. He started to trust John Brown for them vs. Pitt and NE.  He doesn’t trust Foster (and probably shouldn’t).  I love me some Bease but I don’t understand why we have him running deep routes, that is not his best skill set (that goes triple for DiMarco).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I agree.   Allen is better athletically, but not by a lot.   All you ever hear about Allen is how intense a competitor he is, how his almost desperate to correct his mistakes and play better.  We never heard that about EJ.   EJ would say he wanted to get better, but I never saw that desire burning in him.  

 

I think Allen is better athletically by miles, but maybe that’s just me.  EJM was athletic in college and could escape and run but it didn’t translate to the pros for whatever reason.  That was the unknown for Allen -would it translate? It was clear by halftime in the 2nd game he started that the answer was “oh hell Yes, now can we keep him from getting Kilt?”

 

Allen actually joked about it with the MC in a Top Golf fluff piece last off season.  MC said “kid from the Mountain West conference, he’s gonna turn out to be a freak athlete in the NFL, is what everyone was thinking.”  Allen quipped “yeah, me neither.”

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My opinion: The deep ball was never Josh Allen’s best attribute and it wasn’t that great last year.  From NextGen Charts:

2018 passer rating beyond 20 yds: L 66.1 center 0.0 R 77.8

2019 passer rating beyond 20 yds: L 77.1 center 39.6 R 57.0

(the L and R both score as “average”, meaning within a SD of average. The center is Below average Both years but improved)

Keep in mind these are low-frequency and low-percentage throws for most QB so a couple throws influence heavily, and that it’s passer rating meaning INTs decrease it.   Point is, increase on L and center, decrease on R.

 

What Allen needs most IMO, is a reliable deep post to get teams out of Blitz0, coupled with reliable protection to let him set his feet and throw it.

 

He had good timing worked out with Tanner Gentry at Wyo.  But he overthrew guys his Sr year.  He overthrew guys at his pro day (go watch).  And he overthrew guys until they put Foster in late last year.  Without a lot of game tape, Foster could get off the line clean and run like hell and actually catch up to the balls Allen was throwing.  I don’t think Foster ever showed good abilities to track and adjust to the ball in the air, he was just fast enough to run under whatever Josh could throw.  This year he may have been injury-hampered, plus teams got the memo, jam that guy up on the line and PI him if you must, don’t let him run by you.  And they did.

 

I do think Daboll and McDermott put the Fear of Interceptions in Allen’s head after week 3 and he hesitated to throw back shoulder routes the WR could adjust to after that. He started to trust John Brown for them vs. Pitt and NE.  He doesn’t trust Foster (and probably shouldn’t).  I love me some Bease but I don’t understand why we have him running deep routes, that is not his best skill set (that goes triple for DiMarco).

This is excellent and rings true from top to bottom.   I'll add a couple of things.

 

One is that there's a place in the play book for those deep patterns run by DiMarco and Beasley.   They are there to take advantage of defensive mistakes.   Sending those guys deep occasionally draws a defender away from a targeted area and, if the defense is overplaying your primary guy, those guys will get really good separation occasionally.  In fact, that play (I guess in the Houston game) when Allen threw the wild deep ball to DiMarco was one of those - DiMarco HAD good separation, but Allen saw him late and couldn't get the ball there, so coverage collapsed around the ball and it ended up being an ugly play.  

 

If Allen improves in the deep ball arena, it will come from a variety of areas of improvement:  communication with Brown and any other serious deep threat the Bills may bring in (or significant improvement from Foster), recognition by Allen of the opportunities, better loft on the ball (sometimes all that's needed is to see where the opportunity will be and to put the ball in the air for the receiver to find and go get it), better protection in the cover 1 cover-0 sets, so Allen has the time to make the decisions and set up to make a proper throw.  

[C.Biscuit97]

23 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Palmer was far more direct about Josh's weaknesses than you think.

 

He acknowledged his weaknesses with the long ball and footwork this year, and their plans to fix it in the offseason.  As others said, he feels that Allen has the right mental and physical make up to overcome the deficiencies.

 

Also notable is that Palmer admitted that Allen is further along in his development than Palmer thought he'd be at this point.  He said that in college, Allen never really showed the capacity to take over games like he has in some of his NFL outings.  That was surprising to Palmer and he hopes to build on that for the next season.

 

Regarding the coaching staff, he made interesting admission that he has a good relationship with McD's staff and his offseason program is somewhat tailored to what the Bills want to fix and implement.  He doesn't have the attitude of "I'm the offseason coach, and this is what I'm going to do with Josh, come hell or high water."

 

 

Thanks for the grown up response.  I don’t think he would say he was behind where he would be though but you make some good points.  And Allen has shown flashes of dominance but it hasn’t been substantiated through a full game, except perhaps the Miami games.  He definitely dominates Miami.

 

and hap makes a good point about the fear of interceptions possibly affecting the deep ball.  Part of me wants them to just like Allen let it rip and see if can carry us (the definition of a franchise qb).  But I guess the other part is that could lead to more ints which could affect winning.