My opinion about Josh Allen

[BruceVilanch]

12 hours ago, BillsVet said:

I think the truth about Josh Allen is that he's 6'5 and was a first round draft pick in 2018, 7th overall.

 

The truth is also that he'll be the starting QB to begin 2020.  And...he has a strong throwing arm. 

 

 

and he has big hands and looks good in shorts

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dubs said:

I think every member of TBD should start a thread about each of their respective opinions on Josh Allen. 

 

I think you should Og Umpj ni het akeL

[Augie]

Bruce Arians was on the radio today and he said the one position lacking coming out of college is OLine. The DLine is FAR ahead of the other side of the ball. DLine has better athletes and OLine needs serious coaching up.

 

QB’s are getting ready younger, throwing the ball more at an early age and are more prepared than ever. BUT, with OLine being relatively weaker they need to be able to move. The statue QB is history. Brady gets the ball out almost instantly and he barely survives. 

 

I don’t want Josh to be our leading rusher, but he NEEDS to be able to move. Just get smarter about sliding, going OB and not taking unnecessary hits. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

I wanted to look up our YAC and I thought it was interesting:

Only Beasley is in the top 50 this year and the rest are 100th+:
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=5&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

Our team was 29th:
http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231

In 2018 both Zay and Kevlin had negative YAC

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-yac

 

This tells me they aren't being hit in stride or catching it awkwardly. IMO it means they are catching the ball in zones, which I've seen but this pretty bad.

 

A larger WR won't fix that problem. How do you guys think this is fixable? Is it an accuracy/precision question? That's my guess.

 

Instead of guessing, you could actually, I dunno, go watch some pass plays or something?

 

The Bills are 23rd in YAC/reception - ahead of the Eagles, Seahawks, Giants, Falcons, and Lions.

Maybe that means their QB have accuracy/precision questions?

 

I suspect it has something to do with the fact that Allen isn’t taking enough checkdowns to the RB and screen passes/ pass plays weren’t a big part of our game - most of the guys with the highest YAC/reception are RBs. A second factor would be Allen missing on deep balls - if the WR has already outrun the coverage at the time of the reception he’s well set up for YAC.  Third would be IIRC Bills receivers had relatively low yards of separation at the time of reception, which would mean low YAC.  That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s on them though, because the timing of the throw matters.  As a young QB, Allen has room to progress in making rapid reads and reactions.  IMO this is better than making rapid (incorrect) reads and reactions a la Winston, and should improve - but it either will, or it won’t.

 

 

[zow2]

Just give me one 300 yd passing game in 2020.  Is that too much to ask for?  

[LB48]

13 hours ago, ALF said:

Needs a quick release like Brady with short patterns if facing too much pressure. That's why a extra OT or G at the TE position or at FB to give Allen more protection.

He doesn't have that quick release - it can't be taught.  Accuracy can't be taught.  He has to be a running QB and that's what we have!!!

[BillsBlue]

14 hours ago, zow2 said:

Great team leader, great guy...BUT, he has to be a runner to be an effective QB.  Kind of Cam Newton-ish.  
 

The Bills are not using him properly if they think he’s going to stand back there, scan the field like Brady or Matt Ryan, and shred opposing defenses.  I think Daboll started to get it right after those first few games last season where he was planted in the pocket.  Josh better figure out how he can best stay healthy while still running around and making plays. That’s his game.

You don't eat a cake till it's done baking right? 

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, dubs said:

I think every member of TBD should start a thread about each of their respective opinions on Josh Allen. 

Where’ve you been? ? We’re already on our full 4th mock.

[JoPoy88]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Just give me one 300 yd passing game in 2020.  Is that too much to ask for?  

Sure he’ll probably hit that when we play the chiefs and end up losing 45-31. Stupid benchmark, stupid thread. 

[JGMcD2]

Is there a reason a guy can’t take a few years to develop? Other than the obvious lack of intelligence from fans or impatience? 
 

I mean seriously... guys are allowed to get better. Especially physical freaks like Josh who have never really been coached or played against tier one competition.

 

Gianis Antetokoumpo was given time to develop with all of his physical gifts. Mike Trout was given time to develop and even struggled at the MLB level before he became the greatest player in the game. 
 

People just need to freaking chill out. Player development isn’t a finite process... there will always be improvement. Read up on it one time... it’s not a freaking video game where a guy randomly gains +3 overall after having a solid season. 
 

Stop being dumb. Everyone. 

[BuffaloBills1998]

7 hours ago, GreggTX said:

He's a solid backup QB with elite arm strength and elite scrambling ability. If he can become much better somehow, we'll be fine. Otherwise Beane and/or McDermott will be following him out the door. I've never seen a QB with his level of accuracy turn it around in all the years of the AFL and NFL, but I hope he will be the first.

 

We know he needs better weapons, but IMO what he needs most is a much better OL. Last year's OL was much improved, but they still need another big leap.

I don’t think McD or Beane will be fired if Allen doesn’t pan out. Pegula wants continuity, I’m sure he would give Beane one last shot at getting a QB. Not a fan of your view of Josh Allen, he’s a helluva a lot better than most starting QBs out there that’s names don’t start with Brady, Brees and Rodgers. I’d take Allen over half the QBs that are starting right now and yes that includes Mayfield and Jackson. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by BuffaloBills1998

[Putin]

18 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Thank you for giving us the truth.

Some prefer facts over truth 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Nope

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Instead of guessing, you could actually, I dunno, go watch some pass plays or something?

 

The Bills are 23rd in YAC/reception - ahead of the Eagles, Seahawks, Giants, Falcons, and Lions.

Maybe that means their QB have accuracy/precision questions?

 

I have all seen of our games this year. I saw a lot of outstretched hands, balls low, knuckle ball throws (leads to drops), and that makes it hard to get YAC. Also our team ranks 29th, I gave the link.

 

Where's your proof to your statement about those teams? Lions & Giants I could see. Lions only had Stafford for 8 games, the rest was weird QB central.

 

I just looked and Atlanta, a team you cited has 2 players in the top 40 for YAC, Philly had 2 in the top 40 so I "dunno" what you're referring to.

 

Quote

I suspect it has something to do with the fact that Allen isn’t taking enough checkdowns to the RB and screen passes/ pass plays weren’t a big part of our game - most of the guys with the highest YAC/reception are RBs. A second factor would be Allen missing on deep balls - if the WR has already outrun the coverage at the time of the reception he’s well set up for YAC.  Third would be IIRC Bills receivers had relatively low yards of separation at the time of reception, which would mean low YAC.  That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s on them though, because the timing of the throw matters.  As a young QB, Allen has room to progress in making rapid reads and reactions.  IMO this is better than making rapid (incorrect) reads and reactions a la Winston, and should improve - but it either will, or it won’t.

 

See? This was a good but I do have questions about. Is yards of separation a real correlation? Julio Jones is below Dawson Knox and John Brown. The same with Devante Parker and Kenny Golladay. Have have less yards per separation. Michael Thomas has 2.6 yards per separation and John Brown 2.4. I do agree with screens and checkdowns being part of it.

[WideRightRevenge]

20 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I don't believe the Bills want Josh Allen to become Cam Newton, because that playing style has literally destroyed his body. 

While other QBs are still going strong after 15 years in the NFL, Newton looks done after about 7-8.  That's the longevity of a running back.

 

I believe their ultimate vision is to mirror players like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Guys who can use their mobility to extend plays, but not as a primary weapon.

 

Consider how the Bills coaches have approached Allen's development... compared to how the Ravens have worked with Lamar Jackson.

As a rookie, Allen relied mostly on his athletic ability and running ability to make plays.  But in Year 2, the coaches pulled back on the scrambling.  They surrounded Allen with more receivers and pushed for him to stay in the pocket more.  Meanwhile, Baltimore structured their entire offense around Jackson's running skills.

 

In my opinion, Baltimore's approach is yielding more immediate success.  But long-term, Buffalo's plan will result in Allen being a better QB and for a much longer time.

 

 

I like the Big Ben reference ... I know you have to squint but below is Big Ben's 1st 3 years ... Year 3 was a dud (18 TD / 23 INTs, 46 sacks, QBR 55) ... I'll take the bet Josh does better in Year 3 and we all know what Big Ben did later in his career (2x SB Winning QB)  ... I see Josh as the same as MJT says above .. evolve and move in the pocket like Big Ben ... extend plays ... make unbelievable throws to small windows for many years to come for the enjoyment of the Bills Mafia.  That's my Josh Allen Opinion.

 

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2004	22	PIT	QB	7	14	13	13-0-0	196	295	66.4	2621	17	5.8	11	3.7	130	58	8.9	8.4	13.4	187.2	98.1		30	213	7.41	6.93	9.2	4	5	11
2005	23	PIT	QB	7	12	12	9-3-0	168	268	62.7	2385	17	6.3	9	3.4	110	85	8.9	8.7	14.2	198.8	98.6		23	129	7.75	7.53	7.9	2	2	11
2006	24	PIT	QB	7	15	15	7-8-0	280	469	59.7	3513	18	3.8	23	4.9	178	67	7.5	6.1	12.5	234.2	75.4	55.5	46	280	6.28	4.97	8.9	2	3	11

 

										Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career       28 27 15-12-0 440 781 56.3 5163 30 3.8 21 2.7 235 75 6.6 6.2 11.7 184.4 78.2   66 450 5.56 5.16 7.8 6 8 17 2018 22 BUF QB 17 12 11 5-6-0 169 320 52.8 2074 10 3.1 12 3.8 89 75 6.5 5.4 12.3 172.8 67.9 49.8 28 213 5.35 4.37 8.0 2 3 6 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 10-6-0 271 461 58.8 3089 20 4.3 9 2.0 146 53 6.7 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 45.8 38 237 5.72 5.71 7.6 4 5 11

[mjt328]

15 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

Might result, not will result. Baltimore's plan is working, ours might work.

 

I still can't see how a QB who has never relied on his arm for yardage is magically going to turn it around in year 3 in the NFL.

Big Ben and Wilson had big games in college. Ben in particular had monstrous games.

 

Personally I’ve never understood how a GM makes a decision on a QB without that history, especially a project and not in the 1st round.

 

While I hope Allen becomes great I feel almost positive they will do everything to protect him emotionally from being challenged.

 

I’m still of the belief if we fast-forward this conversation next year at the same time many of you will be singing a different tune.

 

I have a “win-now” mentality when it comes to QBs. It’s now a fairly common believe you can’t win in a QBs next big contract. I remember McVay discussing that last year.

 

If we have to load up this team with superstars to make Allen competent as a passer, we won’t be able to keep that same talent. And even great QBs don’t have great records with big contracts of recent. Young great QBs are the ultimate win-now window in the NFL.

 

If you looked at Joe Burrow after the 2018 season, you would have seen a Quarterback who was maybe a late-round pick (if he was on anyone's radar at all).

Through 4 years of college up until that point (at two great programs in Ohio State and LSU), he would have accomplished NOTHING that would lead ANYONE to believe he could be a starting quarterback in the NFL.

 

Then something amazing happened.  Everything clicked and he suddenly had one of the best seasons in NCAA history.

In the span of 4-5 months time, Burrow went from a total nobody to the hands-down #1 pick in the NFL draft.

 

Burrow went to a large high school in the Ohio, allowing him to be recruited by Ohio State.  Which is obviously one of the top programs in the country.  Between his time there and with LSU, he's been surrounded by some of the top young players and coaches in the NCAA.  In contrast, Allen went to a tiny high school, and then played for Wyoming, surrounded by nobody who had a prayer of being an NFL starter.  His first REAL coaching came as a rookie on the Bills, playing alongside some of the worst offensive talent in the NFL. 

 

Imagine if Brian Daboll/Jordan Palmer had gotten the chance to work with Allen in college, and the passing skills he displayed during 2019 were evident at Wyoming.  He would have been the #1 pick over Baker Mayfield.  Absolutely no doubt.  So why does it really matter if Allen is showing progression NOW, versus him showing progression while still playing in college?  It really doesn't.  And consider that Allen and Burrow are both 23 years old.

 

This is a drastic example.  But my point is... every football player has a point when they are NOT good, and then a point when they get better.  For some this happens when they are very young.  Others (like Burrow) don't blossom until they hit their senior year of college.  And while they are certainly a rarity, some players don't truly hit their stride until the pros.  

 

Continuing to look back where Allen started is totally pointless.  The only thing that matters is where he finishes, and we shouldn't start worrying until he STOPS getting better.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I have all seen of our games this year. I saw a lot of outstretched hands, balls low, knuckle ball throws (leads to drops), and that makes it hard to get YAC.

 

There's a lot of observer bias in anecdote.  I saw a lot of on-point throws into blanket coverage (leads to no YAC).  I saw some balls that had to be reached for, sure - every QB has those.  Now what?  Doesn't seem like a good basis for discussion.  "I saw green!" "Oh yeah, I saw blue!"

 

Quote

Also our team ranks 29th, I gave the link.

 

29th in YAC?  Perhaps you can explain why you feel YAC is a good team metric to compare the QB of teams with different amounts of passing offense.

 

I cited YAC/reception which normalizes for number of receptions thus amount of passing offense.  A normalized parameter is necessary unless you wish to fold "not enough passing offense" into what's claimed to be a discussion about whether Josh Allen is passing in a way that disallows YAC (in which case, I'm out, because you're not looking at what you say you're looking at).

 

I also don't understand the emphasis or point on how many receivers are in the top-50 or top-100 for YAC. - again, if the point is to discuss some metric pertaining to accuracy, it seems to me a normalized statistic is needed.  And when I look at a normalized statistic, what I see is that of the top 40 players for YAC/reception, only 4 are WR.  32 are RB.  4 are TE.  If you take it up to 50, 7 are WR; 7 are TE.  So what that seems to be saying is, the Bills for whatever reason didn't throw to the RB very much, because it's those RB checkdowns and little screens that tend to rack up a bunch of YAC.

 

If we look at 50-150, which is where most of the WR and TE are, we have Beasley at 73 with a respectable 4.9 YAC/reception and Brown at 143 with 2.9.  I think Brown would have a much higher average if a few of the deep balls thrown his way were catchable, which comes down to a known problem that Allen and Palmer seem to think he can fix. 

 

Either he will or he won't.

[BigBillsFan]

38 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

I like the Big Ben reference ... I know you have to squint but below is Big Ben's 1st 3 years ... Year 3 was a dud (18 TD / 23 INTs, 46 sacks, QBR 55) ... I'll take the bet Josh does better in Year 3 and we all know what Big Ben did later in his career (2x SB Winning QB)  ... I see Josh as the same as MJT says above .. evolve and move in the pocket like Big Ben ... extend plays ... make unbelievable throws to small windows for many years to come for the enjoyment of the Bills Mafia.  That's my Josh Allen Opinion.

 

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2004	22	PIT	QB	7	14	13	13-0-0	196	295	66.4	2621	17	5.8	11	3.7	130	58	8.9	8.4	13.4	187.2	98.1		30	213	7.41	6.93	9.2	4	5	11
2005	23	PIT	QB	7	12	12	9-3-0	168	268	62.7	2385	17	6.3	9	3.4	110	85	8.9	8.7	14.2	198.8	98.6		23	129	7.75	7.53	7.9	2	2	11
2006	24	PIT	QB	7	15	15	7-8-0	280	469	59.7	3513	18	3.8	23	4.9	178	67	7.5	6.1	12.5	234.2	75.4	55.5	46	280	6.28	4.97	8.9	2	3	11

 

										Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career       28 27 15-12-0 440 781 56.3 5163 30 3.8 21 2.7 235 75 6.6 6.2 11.7 184.4 78.2   66 450 5.56 5.16 7.8 6 8 17 2018 22 BUF QB 17 12 11 5-6-0 169 320 52.8 2074 10 3.1 12 3.8 89 75 6.5 5.4 12.3 172.8 67.9 49.8 28 213 5.35 4.37 8.0 2 3 6 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 10-6-0 271 461 58.8 3089 20 4.3 9 2.0 146 53 6.7 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 45.8 38 237 5.72 5.71 7.6 4 5 11

 

What I loved about the Steelers is how they simplified the game for Ben. The difference was the running game was their offense. We should copy that as much as possible.

[C.Biscuit97]

9 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Is there a reason a guy can’t take a few years to develop? Other than the obvious lack of intelligence from fans or impatience? 
 

I mean seriously... guys are allowed to get better. Especially physical freaks like Josh who have never really been coached or played against tier one competition.

 

Gianis Antetokoumpo was given time to develop with all of his physical gifts. Mike Trout was given time to develop and even struggled at the MLB level before he became the greatest player in the game. 
 

People just need to freaking chill out. Player development isn’t a finite process... there will always be improvement. Read up on it one time... it’s not a freaking video game where a guy randomly gains +3 overall after having a solid season. 
 

Stop being dumb. Everyone. 

I would agree with your post 15-20 years ago.  But it is a completely different nfl now.  It has never been easier to be a qb.  Much easier rules that allow for early qb success.  More college concepts in then nfl.  With the league now, you don’t need 5 years to see if a qb has it.  It should be shown pretty early.  
 

and for as physically gifted as Allen is, and he is, it’s not like the nfl hasn’t seen guys like him before.  It is extremely hard to physically dominate the NFL.  Giannis entered the nba at 18 after playing in Greece.  Trout started pro ball at 18.  For as bad as some try to make Wyoming’s coaching staff, he had the same head coach as Carson Wentz did in college and was 22 years old when he started his pro career. 
 

allen has shown he is a NFL qb without a doubt.  He also just had the same exact 2nd year as Mitch Tribusky.  I think the issue that the Allen skeptics have is everything with him is projection.  For all his physical talent, he never really dominated At Wyoming.  He obviously has glimpses of that talent but it’s never been consistent.  The Newton comparison, at this point, probably aren’t far to Cam.  He was a much better qb with a bigger track record of dominance than Allen at similar points in their career.

 

My fear as it’s always been is Allen will continue to tease us with jaw dropping ability but struggle with consistency.  I hope I’m wrong but time will tell.  I just hope we upgrade the offense enough so we can finally stop making excuses why it’s everyone’s fault but the qb.  

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's a lot of observer bias in anecdote.  I saw a lot of on-point throws into blanket coverage (leads to no YAC).  I saw some balls that had to be reached for, sure - every QB has those.  Now what?  Doesn't seem like a good basis for discussion.  "I saw green!" "Oh yeah, I saw blue!"

 

 

 

Really? Bias huh? These are "all the throws" for the only games I could find. I only went through a little of each game. Show me the YAC potential on these throws... basically none of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AoUw69jvUI
:24 “little high” or as Bills fan would call it a “drop”
:31 no room to run
:41 wrong guy and low
:51 “little high” or as Bills fan would call it a “drop”
1:41 knucke-ball
Only 1 good throw and it was to Zay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnKfjF1emcY
:04 outstreched arms
1:16 did he need MORE separation?
1:25 just a little high hahaha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKRdtGi3lbA
:03 A “tad” high
:53 behind the receiver
1:05 zone placement
1:21 zone placement
1:44 high on short throw, even if caught he gets blown up

2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-hp7_QubP0
Outstretched arms: :04
Outstretched arms: :17
Outstretched arms: :26
Zone 1:05
Slightly behind 1:14
Outstretched arms: 1:25

 

Quote

 

29th in YAC?  Perhaps you can explain why you feel YAC is a good team metric to compare the QB of teams with different amounts of passing offense.

 

I cited YAC/reception which normalizes for number of receptions thus amount of passing offense.  A normalized parameter is necessary unless you wish to fold "not enough passing offense" into what's claimed to be a discussion about whether Josh Allen is passing in a way that disallows YAC (in which case, I'm out, because you're not looking at what you say you're looking at).

 

I also don't understand the emphasis or point on how many receivers are in the top-50 or top-100 for YAC. - again, if the point is to discuss some metric pertaining to accuracy, it seems to me a normalized statistic is needed. 

 

 

It's because one proceeds another. If you miss more passes you get less chances. That's why "normalized" YAC is a worthless stat. Advanced metrics is when people want to advance narratives.

 

I could beat Larry Bird, Steph Curry, Michael Jordan, Dirk Novitzski, and 30 other NBA legend in a 3 point content. They get 1 shot each and I get 1,000.

Edited February 27, 2020 by BigBillsFan