My opinion about Josh Allen

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, zow2 said:

Great team leader, great guy...BUT, he has to be a runner to be an effective QB.  Kind of Cam Newton-ish.  
 

The Bills are not using him properly if they think he’s going to stand back there, scan the field like Brady or Matt Ryan, and shred opposing defenses.  I think Daboll started to get it right after those first few games last season where he was planted in the pocket.  Josh better figure out how he can best stay healthy while still running around and making plays. That’s his game.

So...."here me out"

 

Can we recognize that even though Josh Allen's game changed last year to have him more in the pocket (he is after all 6 foot 5) and be move of a NFL "prototype" QB.....even though he was going through that transition he was STILL improved from year one from year t

 

And that literally is the whole point.....its about developing a extremely raw but huge upside QB into his full potential.

 

Were there times that I wanted to see Josh take off and run a bit more last year......yes.....absoutely...but I also get it....he needs to reserve that talent (and he is incredible at it) so that teams dont start employing a spy every play like they did with Tyrod Taylor because he COULDNT beat you from the pocket.....we need Josh to take that next step

 

And he is........

 

Would like to see his deep ball accuracy improve a bit this next year.....but he is a franchise qb...has shown that...and things are moving along fine

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Touché Hap. I’ll keep that in mind when the next shoulda drafted Mahomes thread drops 

 

I think we do try to limit those to 1 on the first 2 pages at any one time, but they do keep sneakily infecting other threads.  It's sort of like the TBD version of Coronavirus - Pandemic in waiting.

 

13 minutes ago, Mickey said:

I would add that he led us to securing a playoff spot with two games to spare in only his second season in the league. I'd probably add that he was within a handful of plays of securing us a division title and first round bye but since "close" doesn't really count, I won't dwell on it.  

 

Could you kindly provide this insight to PFF, which appears to dwell on certain aspects of "close" in their rating evaluations?

[C.Biscuit97]

It’s hilarious that some people act like being compared to Cam Newton as an insult.  Yeah, I’d really hate if Allen dominated the best college conference in football; won a Heisman and national championship; set rookie passing records; won a MVP with Ted Ginn as his number 1 wr; and went to a SB.  That would be so insulting!!! 

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I don't believe the Bills want Josh Allen to become Cam Newton, because that playing style has literally destroyed his body. 

While other QBs are still going strong after 15 years in the NFL, Newton looks done after about 7-8.  That's the longevity of a running back.

 

I believe their ultimate vision is to mirror players like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Guys who can use their mobility to extend plays, but not as a primary weapon.

 

Consider how the Bills coaches have approached Allen's development... compared to how the Ravens have worked with Lamar Jackson.

As a rookie, Allen relied mostly on his athletic ability and running ability to make plays.  But in Year 2, the coaches pulled back on the scrambling.  They surrounded Allen with more receivers and pushed for him to stay in the pocket more.  Meanwhile, Baltimore structured their entire offense around Jackson's running skills.

 

In my opinion, Baltimore's approach is yielding more immediate success.  But long-term, Buffalo's plan will result in Allen being a better QB and for a much longer time.

 

Fair post.  I do worry that making a guy who never hit 60% passing on any level into a pocket passer is forcing a square peg in a round hole though. But time will tell. 

[The Jokeman]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

One big difference between Dallas and Houston was the amount of time Allen had to throw.

 

A component of that was Houston in the 2nd half (from what I saw, I haven't gone back and assessed each pass play) adopting the NE blitz approach where when a guy is blocked, he drops back into coverage - but they're showing enough rushers to wind up with a TE or RB being assigned to block a really good pass rushing TE or LB.

 

You're right that Allen never learned to throw with anticipation, but that's not really what the quick release is about.  Part of it is on Josh - he will have checkdowns to Motor available he doesn't take - part of it is on the receivers who don't always recognize the need to modify their routes and look early.

 

Then instead of looking for a quick release the OP should have stated they're looking for Josh to take what the D gives him or check down more which I agree with as sometimes the 3-5 passes help keep drives alive as makes 3rd down more manageable since not as long. 

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, zow2 said:

Great team leader, great guy...BUT, he has to be a runner to be an effective QB.  Kind of Cam Newton-ish.  
 

The Bills are not using him properly if they think he’s going to stand back there, scan the field like Brady or Matt Ryan, and shred opposing defenses.  I think Daboll started to get it right after those first few games last season where he was planted in the pocket.  Josh better figure out how he can best stay healthy while still running around and making plays. That’s his game.

I think the comparisons to Newton are wrong-headed.   They are similar builds, to be sure, and they both have run a lot, but I think the similarity ends there.   Newton has the mentality of a ball carrier, Allen will do what's asked of him, and he'll scramble, but Allen has the mentality of a QB - he WANTS to throw it.  And he's a better thrower.   Newton is more like the guy who was the biggest fast guy on the team and the coach figured out to give him the ball out of the shotgun and let him dominate everyplay.   That's not Allen.

 

Comparing 16-game adjusted stats, Allen ran fewer times for less yards in 2019.  It was an obvious effort to get him away from running.   If the Bills had had a competent #2 back for the second half of the season (neither Gore not Yeldon could get the job done), Allen would have carried it even less.  

 

His future is as a traditional pocket passing QB who has the size and mobility to hurt you if you let him out of the pocket with open field.   I expect that in 2020 his number of carries and his total yardage will be down again, his completion percentage will go up again, and his passer rating will go up.   In other words, I think he's continuing to progress into a quality quarterback, and as he does, he'll use his legs less.   

[eball]

6 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

I'd argue that "his game" isn't fully defined yet.  He's still developing so let's not pigeonhole him just yet.  

 

 

Thank you.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the comparisons to Newton are wrong-headed.   They are similar builds, to be sure, and they both have run a lot, but I think the similarity ends there.   Newton has the mentality of a ball carrier, Allen will do what's asked of him, and he'll scramble, but Allen has the mentality of a QB - he WANTS to throw it.  And he's a better thrower.   Newton is more like the guy who was the biggest fast guy on the team and the coach figured out to give him the ball out of the shotgun and let him dominate everyplay.   That's not Allen.

 

Just a little interjection here that Newton set a record for rookie passing yards with 4,051 yds on 517 attempts, 60% completions.  That's a lot of attempts and passing yards for a guy you imply would prefer to just scramble.

 

Stats aren't everything, but Allen has yet to put up passing yards anything close to what Cam produced in his first 2 years.

 

Interesting trivia point: it wasn't until Newton's third year, when he stopped passing as much (down to 211 ypg from 253 ypg), that Carolina had a solid winning season.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I don't believe the Bills want Josh Allen to become Cam Newton, because that playing style has literally destroyed his body. 

While other QBs are still going strong after 15 years in the NFL, Newton looks done after about 7-8.  That's the longevity of a running back.

 

I believe their ultimate vision is to mirror players like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Guys who can use their mobility to extend plays, but not as a primary weapon.

 

Consider how the Bills coaches have approached Allen's development... compared to how the Ravens have worked with Lamar Jackson.

As a rookie, Allen relied mostly on his athletic ability and running ability to make plays.  But in Year 2, the coaches pulled back on the scrambling.  They surrounded Allen with more receivers and pushed for him to stay in the pocket more.  Meanwhile, Baltimore structured their entire offense around Jackson's running skills.

 

In my opinion, Baltimore's approach is yielding more immediate success.  But long-term, Buffalo's plan will result in Allen being a better QB and for a much longer time.

 

I agree with this.   In terms of guys playing now, I agree that Roethlisberger is the closest to what Josh should become.   Big guy who generally stays in the pocket, slips tackles, completes the ball downfield.   Allen can make the throws Ben historically has.   Allen will run out of necessity, with only an occasional designed run thrown in.  He'll be better than Ben at running out of necessity, because he's a better runner, but running won't be a regular part of his game.   In that way I think he's different from Wilson.   He isn't now and isn't going to become the wild scrambler that Wilson is.    Allen has had some wild scrambles, but he doesn't have the quickness of change of direction that Wilson does.  

 

To compare across generations, I'd say Wilson is as close to Fran Tarkenton as I've ever seen.   Like Tarkenton, Wilson almost plays with the rushers.   Both could extend time in the pocket seemingly endlessly if they wanted. 

 

Allen is about as much like Elway as I've seen.   They both had size and speed, but not true quickness or escapability.   Both were willing to take punishment to gain yards when need.  But both had big arms and wanted to be throwers first.   And both were relatively slow out of the box.    I was surprised to see that Elway was in the bottom half of NFL QBs for his first NINE seasons, and several of those seasons he was in the bottom quarter.     He was feared and respected during that period, but he wasn't killing people throwing it.  Then Wade Phillips showed up as his coach, followed by Mike Shanahan,  Elway matured, and he climbed into the top quarter of QBs for his last several years.   Allen's had better coaching, but it's clear he's still learning how to play the game the NFL demands.  

 

Maybe a different way to look at Newton and Allen is that when Newton came into the league, everyone understood that his running was going to make him successful while he learned to play quarterback.   What's happened to Newton is he never improved very much at the complex quarterbacking skills - pre- and post-snap reads and adjustments.  He needed those skills to develop, because we all knew his running abilities would decline.  The skill didn't develop. and he's on his way to becoming a broken-down runner.    Allen is in some ways in the same position Newton was after a couple of seasons.   

 

The other difference is that Carolina, similar to the Ravens, ran an offense that was designed around Cam, designed to get Cam throws that he could recognize and complete.    The Bills gave Allen the whole offense.    Cam succeeded early, but as teams developed defenses to stop his go-to plays, Cam needed to move on, to learn new ways to beat the defense.   He's never really stepped up to that.    Whether Allen will learn all he needs is an open question, but his progress from season 1 to season 2 at least suggests that he's on the road.  

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, T master said:

Given what Beane has done to this point & seeing his over all seemingly great player evaluation from him & his team of scouts, if a really good QB is there at a later round Bills pick & he is Beane's BPA at that pick do you think he would take a QB with that pick ?

 

What examples of "great player evaluation" from Beane and his scouts are you talking about?   Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano were all selections from Whaley/McDermott and the previous Bills scouting department.   The jury is still out on the two draft classes that Beane actually had a hand in.  Allen and Edmunds have been promising, both have been impressive at times, and Edmunds started playing significantly better in the second half of last season, but neither has yet earned a reputation as a top NFL player at his position.  In the 2019 class, Ed Oliver and Devin Singletary seem like keepers but Cody Ford is very questionable.  Dawson Knox has made some good plays but much too infrequently.

 

Beane's "great player evaluation" of veterans has been singularly unimpressive, especially in 2017 and 2018.  The list of Beane's mediocrity and outright failures in acquiring veterans include Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman, AJ McCarron, Derek Anderson, Star Loutelelei, Trent Williams, and Frank Gore.  Only in 2019 did Beane and his scouts actually find some solid veteran players who contributed significantly to the team.

 

Just how good or bad Beane is as a talent evaluator still remains to be seen. 

 

3 hours ago, T master said:

If there is 1 thing we have observed over the past 15 + years is the Pats most generally always have a fairly good QB prospect waiting in the wings & Beane being as sharp as he is do you think he may take a bit of past wisdom from what Bellichek has laid out from being the team to beat for so long ?

 

This statement is based on myth not fact.   There have only been 2 times during Brady's tenure when the Pats have had to call on their backup QBs to play because their starter couldn't.  That's not "wisdom" but rather luck. The first was in 2008 when Brady was injured in the first game and missed the rest of the season.  Matt Cassel led the team to an 11-5 season but the Pats still missed the playoffs.  In 2016, Brady missed the first four games of the season because of suspension, and Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brisett combined for a 3-1 record.    Cassel was a fifth or sixth rounder, Brissett a third rounder, and Garoppolo was taken in the second round

 

Belichick's "wisdom" came from off-loading these three QBs to other teams for picks while their values were the highest.  Cassel was traded to KC in 2009, Brissett was traded to Indy early in 2017, and Garoppolo was traded to the Niners later in 2017.    The QB who lasted the longest as a Brady backup was UDFA Brian Hoyer who spent 4 full seasons and part of another with the Patriots, never starting a game.   

 

 

 

 

 

[mjt328]

29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair post.  I do worry that making a guy who never hit 60% passing on any level into a pocket passer is forcing a square peg in a round hole though. But time will tell. 

 

There is a large middle-ground between Cam Newton/Lamar Jackson running between the tackles like a halfback -- and a high-efficiency, pure pocket-passer like Tom Brady or Drew Brees.

 

I agree that Josh Allen probably won't succeed if he goes completely immobile, and counts on doing everything standing stationary between the tackles.  That would be playing against his strengths and wasting his physical talent.

 

Allen will need to find the proper balance, where he's not always counting on his legs to do the most damage... but also has that skill ready if the defense slips up and leaves a lane open to scramble.  There are lots of guys in this boat, most notably Russell Wilson.  Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben don't scramble a lot, but effectively use their mobility to extend plays.  These are the players Allen needs to model his game after.

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a little interjection here that Newton set a record for rookie passing yards with 4,051 yds on 517 attempts, 60% completions.  That's a lot of attempts and passing yards for a guy you imply would prefer to just scramble.

 

Stats aren't everything, but Allen has yet to put up passing yards anything close to what Cam produced in his first 2 years.

 

Interesting trivia point: it wasn't until Newton's third year, when he stopped passing as much (down to 211 ypg from 253 ypg), that Carolina had a solid winning season.

Thanks.   I really wasn't saying that he preferred to scramble, just that he had the mentality of a runner.    Cam has been consistently ranked in the 14-20 range in passer rating.   One season he got to around 10th in the league.   Other than that season, he has not been an effective.   I didn't now that he threw fro 4000 yards, but he still wasn't an effective passer, over-all.   

 

My only point is that at least so far, it looks like Allen is an upward trajectory as a QB, and Cam's career never advanced in a significant, consistent way.   And I think that part of the reason is that Cam's game relied on winning with his legs, and Allen's doesn't.   Allen's working hard at winning with his head and his arm, and we saw progress last season.  

[C.Biscuit97]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the comparisons to Newton are wrong-headed.   They are similar builds, to be sure, and they both have run a lot, but I think the similarity ends there.   Newton has the mentality of a ball carrier, Allen will do what's asked of him, and he'll scramble, but Allen has the mentality of a QB - he WANTS to throw it.  And he's a better thrower.   Newton is more like the guy who was the biggest fast guy on the team and the coach figured out to give him the ball out of the shotgun and let him dominate everyplay.   That's not Allen.

 

Comparing 16-game adjusted stats, Allen ran fewer times for less yards in 2019.  It was an obvious effort to get him away from running.   If the Bills had had a competent #2 back for the second half of the season (neither Gore not Yeldon could get the job done), Allen would have carried it even less.  

 

His future is as a traditional pocket passing QB who has the size and mobility to hurt you if you let him out of the pocket with open field.   I expect that in 2020 his number of carries and his total yardage will be down again, his completion percentage will go up again, and his passer rating will go up.   In other words, I think he's continuing to progress into a quality quarterback, and as he does, he'll use his legs less.   

With all due respect, it is A completely false statement to say Allen is a better thrower than Newton at this point.  I mean there is simply no truth at all in that statement.  Newton’s passing stats his first 2 years are better across the board than Allen’s.  Newton completed 66% of his passes in the SEC his last year in college while Allen completed 56% in the MWC.  
 

and the point isn’t to trash Allen.  It’s 1) Newton is completely underrated on this board 2) everything with Allen is based on projection rather than actually production.  Could be Allen be better than Newton one day?  Sure.  But to see he is after 2 years and their college careers is just not true at all. 

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.   I really wasn't saying that he preferred to scramble, just that he had the mentality of a runner.    Cam has been consistently ranked in the 14-20 range in passer rating.   One season he got to around 10th in the league.   Other than that season, he has not been an effective.   I didn't now that he threw fro 4000 yards, but he still wasn't an effective passer, over-all.   

 

My only point is that at least so far, it looks like Allen is an upward trajectory as a QB, and Cam's career never advanced in a significant, consistent way.   And I think that part of the reason is that Cam's game relied on winning with his legs, and Allen's doesn't.   Allen's working hard at winning with his head and his arm, and we saw progress last season.  

I’m really not coming at you but you are putting a lot of false information out there.  Newton had 1,002 passing attempts his first 2 years. Allen had 781.  Newton was off to the best passing start of his career in 2018 and completing 67.9% of his passes before injury.  And besides Olsen, that was with a lot of garbage at receiver.  
 

Also false.  Newton relies on his legs more than Allen?  Newton had 253 rushing attempts in 32 games. Allen had 198 in 28 games.  That’s a whopping 1 more rushing attempt per game for Cam.  

Edited February 26, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[Mickey]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think we do try to limit those to 1 on the first 2 pages at any one time, but they do keep sneakily infecting other threads.  It's sort of like the TBD version of Coronavirus - Pandemic in waiting.

 

 

Could you kindly provide this insight to PFF, which appears to dwell on certain aspects of "close" in their rating evaluations?

 

To such wisdom, I suspect, they are immune.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.   I really wasn't saying that he preferred to scramble, just that he had the mentality of a runner.    Cam has been consistently ranked in the 14-20 range in passer rating.   One season he got to around 10th in the league.   Other than that season, he has not been an effective.   I didn't now that he threw fro 4000 yards, but he still wasn't an effective passer, over-all.

 

I don't know how you tell whether a guy has the "mentality of a runner".  Allen has said a number of things about how much he enjoys, even needs, contact - so if Cam does, maybe he does too.  The point is, until Allen consistently demonstrates better passing chops than Cam did, I don't know how a statement like "And he's a better thrower", which you made, can be justified.    This past season was a big step up for Allen as a passer, and he was 26th in passer rating - which is way less than 14-20.  If we correct for Game 16 where he only played a few minutes, Allen threw for 206 ypg and 30 attempts per game this past season - a level of passing attempts and ~ ypg Newton didn't decrease to until his 3rd season. 

 

I just don't see how you can justify the "better thrower" comment.

 

Quote

My only point is that at least so far, it looks like Allen is an upward trajectory as a QB, and Cam's career never advanced in a significant, consistent way.   And I think that part of the reason is that Cam's game relied on winning with his legs, and Allen's doesn't.   Allen's working hard at winning with his head and his arm, and we saw progress last season.  

 

I hope in 10 years we're looking back and seeing a clear upward trajectory to Allen as a QB and appreciating multiple playoff and Superbowl appearances.  I don't think we can tell right now whether or not Allen is on an "upward trajectory".  Given adequate OL play and a couple good WR, he improved over a horrid rookie season where he was thrown to the wolves - but he improved to well below the level where Newton started out in terms of passing productivity.

 

Newton has career averaged 7.5 rush attempts per game and 38 rush ypg.  Allen this past season averaged 6.8 rush attempts per game for 32 rush ypg, down by 0.6 rush attempts and 20 ypg.   I'm not sure you can make a strong case for Allen's game not relying on winning with his legs from that.

 

I don't want to have at you here, but I feel like you're saying incorrect and unjustified stuff about Newton to kind of raise Allen up, and I don't see the point.

[T master]

39 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

What examples of "great player evaluation" from Beane and his scouts are you talking about?   Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano were all selections from Whaley/McDermott and the previous Bills scouting department.   The jury is still out on the two draft classes that Beane actually had a hand in.  Allen and Edmunds have been promising, both have been impressive at times, and Edmunds started playing significantly better in the second half of last season, but neither has yet earned a reputation as a top NFL player at his position.  In the 2019 class, Ed Oliver and Devin Singletary seem like keepers but Cody Ford is very questionable.  Dawson Knox has made some good plays but much too infrequently.

 

Beane's "great player evaluation" of veterans has been singularly unimpressive, especially in 2017 and 2018.  The list of Beane's mediocrity and outright failures in acquiring veterans include Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman, AJ McCarron, Derek Anderson, Star Loutelelei, Trent Williams, and Frank Gore.  Only in 2019 did Beane and his scouts actually find some solid veteran players who contributed significantly to the team.

 

Just how good or bad Beane is as a talent evaluator still remains to be seen. 

 

 

This statement is based on myth not fact.   There have only been 2 times during Brady's tenure when the Pats have had to call on their backup QBs to play because their starter couldn't.  That's not "wisdom" but rather luck. The first was in 2008 when Brady was injured in the first game and missed the rest of the season.  Matt Cassel led the team to an 11-5 season but the Pats still missed the playoffs.  In 2016, Brady missed the first four games of the season because of suspension, and Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brisett combined for a 3-1 record.    Cassel was a fifth or sixth rounder, Brissett a third rounder, and Garoppolo was taken in the second round

 

Belichick's "wisdom" came from off-loading these three QBs to other teams for picks while their values were the highest.  Cassel was traded to KC in 2009, Brissett was traded to Indy early in 2017, and Garoppolo was traded to the Niners later in 2017.    The QB who lasted the longest as a Brady backup was UDFA Brian Hoyer who spent 4 full seasons and part of another with the Patriots, never starting a game.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Every one has their own opinion but C.Beasley, J.Brown,J. Phillips,T, Nsehke, Feliciano, Morse, S.Neal, Lotulelei have been solid & as you mentioned Singletary, Oliver, Knox "Seem" to be players that will be around for quite a while & did a decent job while on the field. As for White, Dawkins & Millano i would be willing to bet were McD picks & Whaley was being used to do his bidding although his scouts more than likely had JMHO ! 

 

As far as Bellichek goes his record speaks for it self & most all of us being Bills fans being at the short end of the stick as long as we have consider nothing he does as being in a good light but alls i know is what ever he is doing at most any position on his team it has worked for the better part of 20 seasons you can bash all you want & that fact will never change there is no myth to that .

 

If by chance what he has done for th time he has been in NE is luck then dam sign me up cause i want some of that kind of luck again Just my opinion with that & a dime you might be able to get a stick of gum at the corner store ...

[Shaw66]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know how you tell whether a guy has the "mentality of a runner".  Allen has said a number of things about how much he enjoys, even needs, contact - so if Cam does, maybe he does too.  The point is, until Allen consistently demonstrates better passing chops than Cam did, I don't know how you justify a statement like "And he's a better thrower", which you made, can be justified.    This past season was a big step up for Allen as a passer, and he was 26th in passer rating - which is way less than 14-20.  If we correct for Game 16 where he only played a few minutes, Allen threw for 206 ypg and 30 attempts per game this past season - a level of passing attempts and ~ ypg Newton didn't decrease to until his 3rd season. 

 

I just don't see how you can justify the "better thrower" comment.

 

 

I hope in 10 years we're looking back and seeing a clear upward trajectory to Allen as a QB and appreciating multiple playoff and Superbowl appearances.  I don't think we can tell right now whether or not Allen is on an "upward trajectory".  Given adequate OL play and a couple good WR, he improved over a horrid rookie season where he was thrown to the wolves - but he improved to well below the level where Newton started out in terms of passing productivity.

 

Newton has career averaged 7.5 rush attempts per game and 38 rush ypg.  Allen this past season averaged 6.8 rush attempts per game for 32 rush ypg, down by 0.6 rush attempts and 20 ypg.   I'm not sure you can make a strong case for Allen's game not relying on winning with his legs from that.

 

I don't want to have at you here, but I feel like you're saying incorrect and unjustified stuff about Newton to kind of raise Allen up, and I don't see the point.

All fair comments.   

 

I think Allen is a better thrower from having watched them both.   Allen hasn't been a better quarterback, but better thrower is clear in my mind.   Newton has a strong arm, but he isn't as good a thrower mechanically as Allen.    He misses a lot of throws because of poor mechanics.    I think Allen misses throws because of poor or late judgments.   

 

Allen didn't improve to a level "well below" Newton's early years.   He improved "to" Newton's level - they both had mid-80's passer ratings.   And that's how I can say he is on an upward trajectory - his improvement from year one to year two was substantial.   Newton, not so much.   His first four years all are more or less indistinguishable from one another.   

 

But those are all just quibbles.   Somebody said this board undervalues Newton, and I'm one who's certainly in this camp.    I think Newton's ego has gotten in the way of his learning to be a field general - he continues to make lousy on-field decisions, and he continues to rely on himself to make plays with his legs, because he seems to think that he's always the best option.   I think Allen already makes better on-field decisions than Newton - it wasn't true in 2018 but I believe it was true in 2019.    And I, for one, am not at all surprised that there's a whole lot of ambivalence in Carolina about the quarterback situation.   Carolina apparently has decided to keep him for 2020, but the reality is that Carolina's front office has had no ringing endorsements for the guy.   Why should they?   He was the 17th rated passer in the league for 2018, and that's been his rating every year except one since he entered the league.   

 

In other words, by year two, Newton was already on a level trajectory, going nowhere.   I have no trouble saying that, based on his progress from year one to year two, and based on his attitude, Allen is on a better trajectory.  

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

5 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

In my opinion, Baltimore's approach is yielding more immediate success.  But long-term, Buffalo's plan will result in Allen being a better QB and for a much longer time.

 

 

Might result, not will result. Baltimore's plan is working, ours might work.

 

I still can't see how a QB who has never relied on his arm for yardage is magically going to turn it around in year 3 in the NFL.

Big Ben and Wilson had big games in college. Ben in particular had monstrous games.

 

Personally I’ve never understood how a GM makes a decision on a QB without that history, especially a project and not in the 1st round.

 

While I hope Allen becomes great I feel almost positive they will do everything to protect him emotionally from being challenged.

 

I’m still of the belief if we fast-forward this conversation next year at the same time many of you will be singing a different tune.

 

I have a “win-now” mentality when it comes to QBs. It’s now a fairly common believe you can’t win in a QBs next big contract. I remember McVay discussing that last year.

 

If we have to load up this team with superstars to make Allen competent as a passer, we won’t be able to keep that same talent. And even great QBs don’t have great records with big contracts of recent. Young great QBs are the ultimate win-now window in the NFL.

[GreggTX]

He's a solid backup QB with elite arm strength and elite scrambling ability. If he can become much better somehow, we'll be fine. Otherwise Beane and/or McDermott will be following him out the door. I've never seen a QB with his level of accuracy turn it around in all the years of the AFL and NFL, but I hope he will be the first.

 

We know he needs better weapons, but IMO what he needs most is a much better OL. Last year's OL was much improved, but they still need another big leap.

Edited February 26, 2020 by GreggTX

[dubs]

I think every member of TBD should start a thread about each of their respective opinions on Josh Allen. 

[BigBillsFan]

I wanted to look up our YAC and I thought it was interesting:

Only Beasley is in the top 50 this year and the rest are 100th+:
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=5&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

Our team was 29th:
http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231

In 2018 both Zay and Kevlin had negative YAC

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-yac

 

This tells me they aren't being hit in stride or catching it awkwardly. IMO it means they are catching the ball in zones, which I've seen but this pretty bad.

 

A larger WR won't fix that problem. How do you guys think this is fixable? Is it an accuracy/precision question? That's my guess.