Yardbarker review of Josh Allen 2019 season

[Stank_Nasty]

29 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

Impressed he recognized the talent on the offense was above-average. So many people are barking it's lack of talent, and it's not. We had an above average O-line, decent receivers, and above average running game.

 

I still think a lot of what we think about the offense will either be exposed with better competition or will be solidified quickly next year. There is no way you give up on a QB like Allen with talent, heart, and desire. He's still the weak point of the team but he could be our biggest strength.

above average talent that still managed to be near the top of the list in drop %..... ya ok. something isn't adding up there.

[Nihilarian]

57 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

Impressed he recognized the talent on the offense was above-average. So many people are barking it's lack of talent, and it's not. We had an above average O-line, decent receivers, and above average running game.

 

I still think a lot of what we think about the offense will either be exposed with better competition or will be solidified quickly next year. There is no way you give up on a QB like Allen with talent, heart, and desire. He's still the weak point of the team but he could be our biggest strength.

I'll bark that the Bills talent level was not above average in 2019. The O line graded slightly better over the 2018 mess and was still in the 20's. The receiver corps was smaller and yet other teams with smurfs did well because those receivers actually got separation. Against the Ravens, Patriots they just couldn't get separation. 

 

The 2019 Buffalo Bills played quite a few weak/bad teams. Jets 2x, Dolphins 2x, Bengals, Giants, Redskins, Broncos, Steelers with Duck Hodges at QB. That's nine bad teams and they only scored more than 20 points in six games. 

 

Against the better teams the Bills didn't do all that well, Ravens, Patriots 2x, Eagles and it was in these games that the Bills had no answer for the blitz and were literally dominated on both side of the ball against the 9-7 NFC EAST winning Eagles.  

 

The 2020 Buffalo Bills schedule looks to be much more difficult. This regime had better upgrade both lines, the pass rush, the receiver corps and make use of the RBs much more often. Last season Singletary was vastly underutilized quite often and when the Bills ran the ball more they usually won. 

 

The 2019 Buffalo run game was bolstered by the QB who had 510 yards rushing and 9 TDs. Both Gore and Singletary only had two rushing TDs each which is really kinda sad. To put this in perspective the better RBs had 8-16. Even LeSean McCoy with 101 rush attempts had 4 rushing TDs. The reality is that the Bills had better learn how to score with the run game in the red zone in 2020. 

[BarleyNY]

Thanks for posting.  It was a fair analysis. 

[gobills404]

44 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The 2019 Buffalo run game was bolstered by the QB who had 510 yards rushing and 9 TDs. Both Gore and Singletary only had two rushing TDs each which is really kinda sad. To put this in perspective the better RBs had 8-16. Even LeSean McCoy with 101 rush attempts had 4 rushing TDs. The reality is that the Bills had better learn how to score with the run game in the red zone in 2020. 

The reality is that Allen is part of the run game and all of his rushing TDs were in the redzone. I'm sure that if we didn't have an incredibly mobile QB lots of those TDs would've gone to our RBs instead. Our run game is fine.

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

The reality is that Allen is part of the run game and all of his rushing TDs were in the redzone. I'm sure that if we didn't have an incredibly mobile QB lots of those TDs would've gone to our RBs instead. Our run game is fine.

3 plays from the one against the Washington potatoes tells me that the Bills needed josh for some of those TDs cause the RBs weren’t cutting it. 

[BigBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I would agree.  But “above average” can still mean “not talented enough to stack up against the best defenses in the league”.

 

That’s exactly where the Bills talent level on offense seems to be right now; we have an OL that kicks butt against lesser defenses, but can get whupped by the best D’s and also struggles with stunting blitzes.  We struggle to run between the tackles against the best DLs.  And our WR/TE are very good against zone, but struggle to beat the best man coverage quickly.

 

There are certainly times and plays where Allen could have done more with what we had, but we still need better talent around Allen if we’re going to be able to score more against elite defenses, or even a couple OK defenses coached by DC’s who “have our number”.

 

Every team I would argue struggles with great defenses. In the game of football mismatches are one of the most important parts of success.

 

The best example of how teams can look differently is the change to the Titans before and after Tannehill. They went from 28th in the league to 4th. We don't know what our real struggles are just yet. Maybe our WRs can get open with man. How would we know? Play calling might be different with different circumstances. As you said, both can be true.

 

Obviously I believe in putting better talent on the field on offense, but no one is certain it will make a substantial difference. We might field better talent and still score the same amount of points against better teams with the offset of playing better defenses.

Edited February 24, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, CSBill said:

A fair analysis. I think the biggest area to improve, decision making.

bingo.

 

If his decision making had been better, we win that Playoff game,

[Yantha]

Hey guys and gals,

I love this article!  Thanks for posting.  I think that the most subjective view that is, let's say "underreported" is that arguably Allen's biggest achilles heel is his lack of ELITE talent at WR or TE, plus he had an aging RB (plus an emerging Singletary) that didn't strike fear in opposing defenses.  Defenses could sit back a little more comfortably IMO, and cover the pass.  And Brown/Beasley didn't "strike fear" either in my humble opinion.  Personally, I think that if we throw more than two early draft picks (even round 1 and 2) at WR, that's a step in the right direction.  Adding competition at TE would help too.  I'm a big Allen fan, and I think that he can be one of the better QB's in this league if we just give him some targets who can get open and are more than 5'11" tall.  Draft two speedy, shifty WR's on the taller side, and watch Allen take a few more steps forward in production!

 

Also, another take on decision making.  Is it possible that the appearance of Allen having poor decision making skills is a symptom of not seeing any open receivers?  Just putting it out there for discussion.  I know Allen is to blame for some blown plays too.  

[Nihilarian]

6 hours ago, gobills404 said:

The reality is that Allen is part of the run game and all of his rushing TDs were in the redzone. I'm sure that if we didn't have an incredibly mobile QB lots of those TDs would've gone to our RBs instead. Our run game is fine.

The reality is that if those run plays for TD's by the QB were designed that way, it might be somewhat fine. The thing is, you don't want the franchise QB running the ball unless there is no other option. Go back and re watch the games only to see that the Bills RB's were usually stuffed in the red zone.

 

For the 2019 season Devin Singletary had 23 looks in the red zone and ended up with only two rushing TD's! Frank Gore had 26 red zone looks and ended up with two rushing TD's! This tells me that the Bills run game is not fine...and in fact was bad considering some of the crappy teams they played in 2019. The Bills O line needs upgrades. 

 

 

Apparently you missed my point about the Bills RB's perspective vs other teams RB's. In 2019 Green Bay went 13-3 mostly because instead of relying on Aaron Rodgers arm like they did in 2018 when they went 6-9-1, a season in which no GB RB had 1000 yards rushing. Last season the Packers doubled up on Aaron Jones carries to the tune of 236 attempts for 1084 yards, 16 rushing TD's. The GB stout run game took a lot of pressure off of Rodgers to carry the team on his arm and it helped immensely. 

 

From what I saw in 2019 for the Buffalo Bills is that Singletary wasn't used nearly enough as he averaged a 5.1 yard per carry a rush during the regular season. Frank Gore was over used in the first half of the season and he faded big time in the second half. That Texan's playoff game Gore had 8 carries for 22 yards, a 2.8 YPC avg, which is pathetic!  He shouldn't have even been in the game IMO. 

 

In that same game Singletary had 13 rushes for a 4.5 YPC avg and he should have seen the ball far more than 13 rushes. Meanwhile, Josh Allen had 46 passing attempts when the Bills should have been pounding the rock to play keep away. 

[Shaw66]

15 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Best game: Dallas

 

Worst game:  NE

 

Struggles against the blitz

 

Takes bad sacks

 

Scrambles when there are open receivers.

 

Big arm.

 

Knox drops lots of balls.

 

Receivers are tiny men who drop balls too

 

No offense to Yardbarkers, but to anyone here, there is no news in that analysis.

I had a similar reaction.   There's nothing much to argue with in the article, and I like the fact that he isn't telling us Allen is much better or much worse than his passer rating and his QBR.   I don't need all the detail - if he's ranking 25th  or so in those stats, he's not getting the job done. 

 

I like Old Time's comment, and Logic's.   I think Allen doesn't have flaws so much as he has things he's still learning.  And he has the attitude that gives me a high level of confidence that he will continue to improve.  I continue to believe that by year 5 he will be one of the top QBs in the league, because he has all the physical skills necessary and he has the brains and attitude to get there.  It just takes time.  2019 was better than 2018, and 2020 will be better still.  

 

And while Allen is improving, so too will the offensive line improve and (I hope) the receivers.   Allen could be approaching the point where his receivers are limiting his ability to succeed (up until now, you couldn't really blame his mediocre performance on the receivers, but as he gets better, the receivers need to get better too).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, ganesh said:

bingo.

If his decision making had been better, we win that Playoff game,

 

Maybe? 

In case you missed it, there were a whole host of other things that if they were better, we would have won that Playoff game.

 

[Gugny]

13 hours ago, ganesh said:

bingo.

 

If his decision making had been better, we win that Playoff game,

 

I think Brian Daboll's decision making was far worse in that game and ultimately led to the loss.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I think Brian Daboll's decision making was far worse in that game and ultimately led to the loss.

 

Whoever decided to "go for it" on 4th and 27 in the 4th needs to revisit his decision making, that's for Damned sure.

 

 

[Gugny]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Whoever decided to "go for it" on 4th and 27 in the 4th needs to revisit his decision making, that's for Damned sure.

 

 

 

And if it was the same person who wanted to become pass-happy with a 2 score lead late in the game, then I'm wondering how that person is still employed.

[CincyBillsFan]

13 hours ago, ganesh said:

bingo.

 

If his decision making had been better, we win that Playoff game,

 

I don't agree.  I can think of 5 - 10 events having NOTHING to do with Allen's "decision making" that cost us that game. 

 

In fact the only example of a bad decision by Allen that negatively impacted the game was the big sack he took in the 4th quarter.  Oh and bad decisions that had very little effect on the game, like throwing deep to DeMarco or trying to lateral to Knox, don't count because in the grand scheme of things they didn't impact the game like:

 

*  A couple of key dropped passes in the 1st half which if they had been caught likely lock up the game by halftime.

 

*  A missed block in OT that likely prevented us from winning the game.

 

*  Allowing a 3rd & 18 conversion on what was essentially a check down pass.

 

*  Failing to wrap-up and make a sack on 3rd & long on the Texans game winning FG drive.

 

There are others but you get the point.  As the article points out Allen is still a work in progress and there are things he needs to work on and get better at.  But to claim that his poor decision making cost us the playoff game is just plain wrong.

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I had a similar reaction.   There's nothing much to argue with in the article, and I like the fact that he isn't telling us Allen is much better or much worse than his passer rating and his QBR.   I don't need all the detail - if he's ranking 25th  or so in those stats, he's not getting the job done. 

 

I like Old Time's comment, and Logic's.   I think Allen doesn't have flaws so much as he has things he's still learning.  And he has the attitude that gives me a high level of confidence that he will continue to improve.  I continue to believe that by year 5 he will be one of the top QBs in the league, because he has all the physical skills necessary and he has the brains and attitude to get there.  It just takes time.  2019 was better than 2018, and 2020 will be better still.  

 

And while Allen is improving, so too will the offensive line improve and (I hope) the receivers.   Allen could be approaching the point where his receivers are limiting his ability to succeed (up until now, you couldn't really blame his mediocre performance on the receivers, but as he gets better, the receivers need to get better too).

 

 

He'll be OK.  I'm still of the mind that Daboll isn't the guy to bring out the best in Allen....and McD won't figure that out.

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

He'll be OK.  I'm still of the mind that Daboll isn't the guy to bring out the best in Allen....and McD won't figure that out.

I'm a huge believer in McDermott.   He is 100% sold on his process, and his process is continuous improvement.  Daboll is still with team because McDermott believes that Daboll will continue to improve in his job; if there were a seriously better candidate out there to do what McDermott wants, McDermott would hire him.  Or if McDermott believed that Daboll had maxed out, couldn't get better at his job, McDermott would have replaced him.   

 

McDermott isn't doing this on the buddy system.  

 

So, because I trust McDermott, I'm not worried about Daboll.   

 

And from a different perspective, I don't think any of us is in a position to understand whether Daboll is getting the job done or not.   I think criticizing individual play calls is a losing proposition.    I get it when people criticize play calling for a half or a game, as in asking why the Bills abandoned the run against Houston, but even in a case like that we don't know what the thinking was behind that.   Daboll may have been sticking to their plan, a plan McDermott agreed with, and it just didn't work.   Maybe it didn't work because they should have been calling something different.  Maybe it didn't work because Allen's reads were bad.  Maybe it didn't work because Houston's defense was better than the Bills' offense.  

 

McDermott expects every aspect of his team to be better next season, Allen and Daboll among them.   If he succeeds, we will see a more successful team, and we'll be talking about how Allen improved, Daboll improved, Morse improved, etc.  The point really will be that the TEAM improved, and because everyone was playing on a better team, pretty much all of the players will look like they improved.   It's much more of a team game than we like to think, and McDermott takes much more of a team approach than the media would suggest.   Now that I understand that, I'm actually less interested in free agency and the draft.   McBeane are looking for guys to fit into the team much more than they are looking for players.  The same is true for coaches, and that's why I'm not surprised Daboll still has a job.  

[Another Fan]

Good and fair article....

 

But am I the only one who thought that person had just a little bit too much time on his hands ?

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm a huge believer in McDermott.   He is 100% sold on his process, and his process is continuous improvement.  Daboll is still with team because McDermott believes that Daboll will continue to improve in his job; if there were a seriously better candidate out there to do what McDermott wants, McDermott would hire him.  Or if McDermott believed that Daboll had maxed out, couldn't get better at his job, McDermott would have replaced him.   

 

McDermott isn't doing this on the buddy system.  

 

So, because I trust McDermott, I'm not worried about Daboll.   

 

And from a different perspective, I don't think any of us is in a position to understand whether Daboll is getting the job done or not.   I think criticizing individual play calls is a losing proposition.    I get it when people criticize play calling for a half or a game, as in asking why the Bills abandoned the run against Houston, but even in a case like that we don't know what the thinking was behind that.   Daboll may have been sticking to their plan, a plan McDermott agreed with, and it just didn't work.   Maybe it didn't work because they should have been calling something different.  Maybe it didn't work because Allen's reads were bad.  Maybe it didn't work because Houston's defense was better than the Bills' offense.  

 

McDermott expects every aspect of his team to be better next season, Allen and Daboll among them.   If he succeeds, we will see a more successful team, and we'll be talking about how Allen improved, Daboll improved, Morse improved, etc.  The point really will be that the TEAM improved, and because everyone was playing on a better team, pretty much all of the players will look like they improved.   It's much more of a team game than we like to think, and McDermott takes much more of a team approach than the media would suggest.   Now that I understand that, I'm actually less interested in free agency and the draft.   McBeane are looking for guys to fit into the team much more than they are looking for players.  The same is true for coaches, and that's why I'm not surprised Daboll still has a job.  

 

On offense, he needs start looking for players.  As ScottLaw said, McD is s solid D mind.  But he really hasn't shown he has the same ability to staff and roster the Offense.  "The Process" is something that organizations talk about in lieu of sustained success.  At some point any "process" has to have an achieved goal.  It's not enough to have "a lot of great guys" on the team.  After not long, fans don't care about that at all.  Just next level success.

[BigBillsFan]

I would Trust McD more if Dennison wasn't brought in, then fired, then started a season with only 2 inexperienced players for QB and no legit WRs for their 7th overall pick to throw to.