Gunner's 2020 Mock Draft! UPDATE - v3.0 (and FINAL) now posted on p.8

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that I look at it differently. To me, if we were getting what Shaq gave at 54 or 86 that’s a really good selection. A quality DE, good against the run and 5-10 sacks is a nice pick with our limited needs.
 

Asked a different way, what kind of immediate production are we expecting out of this draft class? We aren’t likely to be drafting an immediate starter in this draft imo. There are a few places where we can get a guy that is going to play the rotation (OLB, CB, RB, edge). I’m viewing this draft as how to we round out the 2 deep across the roster?
 

Greenard would come into a situation where the top 3 players on the depth chart are aging or potentially cap casualties. He could slide in this year and play 40% of the snaps (or whatever) and be in line for a larger role moving forward. If he looks like he can handle a bigger role, the Bills can save money on an aging vet and use that to pay their young stars. 

 

That is where I am Kirby. I think you might even need them to play more than 40% this year (as you know I have less faith than you in our two starters holding off father time) but the point is you don't need an Anae or a Greenard to come in and be an every down player day 1. You need them to come into the rotation this year and ideally be ready to start in 2021.

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that I look at it differently. To me, if we were getting what Shaq gave at 54 or 86 that’s a really good selection. A quality DE, good against the run and 5-10 sacks is a nice pick with our limited needs.
 

Asked a different way, what kind of immediate production are we expecting out of this draft class? We aren’t likely to be drafting an immediate starter in this draft imo. There are a few places where we can get a guy that is going to play the rotation (OLB, CB, RB, edge). I’m viewing this draft as how to we round out the 2 deep across the roster?
 

Greenard would come into a situation where the top 3 players on the depth chart are aging or potentially cap casualties. He could slide in this year and play 40% of the snaps (or whatever) and be in line for a larger role moving forward. If he looks like he can handle a bigger role, the Bills can save money on an aging vet and use that to pay their young stars. 

 

Sound rationale and viewpoints I didn't consider. 

 

A good reason why I come here. Thanks. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Sound rationale and viewpoints I didn't consider. 

 

A good reason why I come here. Thanks. 

Part of the reason that I’m not opposed to RB at 54 is that’s the place that I can see the rookie making the biggest impact. The depth behind Singletary is weak and he missed 5 games last year. You’re probably still looking at a guy that will play 30% of the plays this year if Motor stays healthy. If he goes out that number jumps quite a bit. That’s the one really immediate need IMO. 
 

There are a lot of options though, like edge, that aren’t necessarily an immediate need for 2020. Gunner would argue that it is an immediate need as we shouldn’t be counting on the older guys that regressed last year. Whether you agree with that or not we can all agree that a couple of DEs in their mid-30’s and Murphy’s contract aren’t long-term options for the Bills. At some point soon we will need to inject some youth.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think the Dolphins would disagree, especially with what they paid him.

 

I liked Lawson - I think he is a decent to good starting DE in the league.  The idea that every starting DE is expected to get 10 sacks per year is unrealistic in my opinion.

 

The biggest problem with Lawson was where he was picked. People look at that and see it as a waste, but that is on Rex, it’s not Lawson’s fault. He was a solid DE against the run, and had decent sack production. 

[John from Riverside]

On 4/12/2020 at 6:50 AM, JohnC said:

I'm getting tired of saying it but again excellent job. The most interesting issue of the second round is the order in which the RBs come off the board and how quickly they come off the board. I doubt that the Bills will use a second round pick on a back but if they do I would be pleasantly surprised. My prediction is that if the Bills draft a back, maybe in the third round,  it would be AJ Dillon from BC. He's a north/south power back who would be a good complement to Singletary.  

If the draft falls like this.....trade up

[Bakin]

On 4/11/2020 at 8:42 PM, Aussie Joe said:

Gotta say.... whilst I support the trade for Diggs, not having a 1st round pick has killed a lot of my interest in the draft this year..

Cant really get too excited where these quality players end up if there is no chance of them falling to the Bills or the Bills moving up to get one..

 

 

Fine by me. 
Less time in bed mock drafting.
Less questions from my wife about what the hell I'm doing. 

[thebandit27]

I have reason to believe that Bryce Hall will be of particular interest to the Bills

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

I have reason to believe that Bryce Hall will be of particular interest to the Bills

 

Can see that fit absolutely. He is almost a poor man's Tre White.

 

EDIT: which is a compliment not a criticism! 

Edited April 13, 2020 by GunnerBill

[billsfan89]

Interesting Mock Drafts, love the work put into this. I would love to see the Bills go DE and WR in rounds 2 and 3. Going into free agency I thought DE and WR were the biggest most glaring needs on the roster. Diggs is a nice frontline addition but depth and youth is still needed there. I would like to see DE ideally in round 2 so that the team could have a young player behind the rather old Murphy, Hughes, Addision trio. WR is more so a depth need as Beasely and Brown are older. 

[OldTimer1960]

48 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I have reason to believe that Bryce Hall will be of particular interest to the Bills

I agree - he seems a very good fit.

[Lurker]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that I look at it differently. To me, if we were getting what Shaq gave at 54 or 86 that’s a really good selection. A quality DE, good against the run and 5-10 sacks is a nice pick with our limited needs.

 

Devil's advocate:   How many years did it take Shaq to turn into that player?

 

 

54 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I have reason to believe that Bryce Hall will be of particular interest to the Bills

 

Oh!    I like that guy...     https://www.nfl.com/prospects/bryce-hall?id=32194841-4c19-0195-b2dc-8ed90605a8d1

 

Strengths

• Desirable height, weight and length
• Press corner uses long arms to maintain feel for the route
• Good recognition of short routes
• When he starts in route phase, he stays there
• Lurker from zone and willing to wait
• Quick click-and-close from standstill
• Short-stepper with rare gather-and-burst foot quickness in transition
• Loads of passes defensed in career
• Makes plays on ball over man
• Instinctive angles to the throw using his length in the lane
• 50-50 balls tilted in his favor

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Lurker

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Devil's advocate:   How many years did it take Shaq to turn into that player?

 

True but he dealt with an injury followed by a scheme change and a GM saying he was starting off the bus. The Bills are a much more stable organisation for a young player to grow and develop now than they were then. And I did like the Shaq pick. I was high on him in that draft. He basically became in year 4 the guy I hoped he could be throughout. 

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Devil's advocate:   How many years did it take Shaq to turn into that player?

 

 

 

Oh!    I like that guy...     https://www.nfl.com/prospects/bryce-hall?id=32194841-4c19-0195-b2dc-8ed90605a8d1

 

Strengths

• Desirable height, weight and length
• Press corner uses long arms to maintain feel for the route
• Good recognition of short routes
• When he starts in route phase, he stays there
• Lurker from zone and willing to wait
• Quick click-and-close from standstill
• Short-stepper with rare gather-and-burst foot quickness in transition
• Loads of passes defensed in career
• Makes plays on ball over man
• Instinctive angles to the throw using his length in the lane
• 50-50 balls tilted in his favor

 

By the 2nd half of 2018 he was playing good football. We just didn’t want to realize it because we were so set on him being a bust. In 2019 he played good football and got paid for it. By the time he was 24 he was a solid to good NFL player. One of the things about Greenard is that he’s an older prospect. He will come to camp as a 23 year old. You’d hope that the learning curve is expedited. You really can work him in this year before you need him to take a step. Will he be in the same place at 24 as Shaq was? If so, it probably allows the Bills to move on from Hughes, Addison and/or Murphy. 

[No_Matter_What]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

EDIT: sorry missed question 3 - happy to do some draft reflections over the summer. Would probably start with 2016 because they are the guys who now have a complete rookie contract behind them.

 

Great, thanks. Not sure what exactly do you mean by summer but be assured I will get back to you on this in June

[GunnerBill]

HERE WE ARE!! Draft day is upon us... and here is the Final 2020 GunnerBill Mock Draft. This is v3.0 and this is the one that in tomorrow's Day 1 Debrief post I will be marking myself against...... here goes:

 

1. Bengals - Joe Burrow - QB - LSU
Lock it up. This one is done. High floor Quarterback, Ohio kid, franchise needing a spark. Nothing to see here, move along please.
2. Redskins - Chase Young - DE - Ohio St
This pick is even more locked in. Defensive end might not be the Redskins number 1 need but Young is the best player in this class and an immediate impact player on defense. They are not trading this pick.
3. TRADE! - Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa - QB - Alabama (Dolphins get #3 & #109; Lions get #5, #26, #141) (Pick change previously Tua Tagovailoa to Chargers)
I have been totally consistent that I think a team trades up with the Lions and selects Tua at #3. I had the Dolphins in v1 and then the Chargers in v2 but I just think there is too much smoke about Miami trying to get up to this spot. I struggle to believe that is for Herbert. I think it's Tua.
4. Giants - Tristan Wirfs - OT - Iowa
I am sticking with this one. A big bruising mauler of a lineman just feels so Dave Gettleman and the Giants oline has felt like a work in progress for about 5 years. Tristan Wirfs is the top offensive tackle on my board but if Solder stays in place Wirfs could even play inside or at right tackle.
5. Lions - Jeff Okudah - CB - Ohio State (Pick change previously Isaiah Simmons to the Dolphins)
Okudah is my #2 player after Chase Young in this class and the Lions just traded their long time pro-bowl corner Darius slay to the Eagles. He fits value and a huge need for a defensive minded coach who is firmly in win now territory.
6. Chargers - Justin Herbert - QB - Oregon (pick change previously Jeff Okudah to the Lions)
I still have a feeling in the pit of my stomach that somehow, some way the Chargers are going to wind up with Tua.... but my head is telling me he has to go at #3 and Miami have the capital to go there. In that scenario I do think the Chargers take Herbert.
7. TRADE! Raiders - CeeDee Lamb - WR - Oklahoma (Raiders get #7 & #38; Panthers get #12, #19 & #80) (pick change previously Derrick Brown to the Panthers)
In some ways the draft starts here. The top 6 feels to me like the locked in top 6 except for which way around Tua and Herbert go. The Raiders want a #1 receiver. When both Jeudy and Lamb looked safe bets they could be content to stay at #12 but with the Cardinals still a possible receiver team at #8 and Jeudy's supposed medical concerns I can see Las Vegas getting jumpy and I have always seen Carolina as a team at the start a total rebuild who would be happy to move back and accumulate picks.
8. Cardinals - Jedrick Wills - OT - Alabama (pick change previously Mekhi Becton)
I have been big on Mekhi Becton here but the failed drug test just makes me reconsider. I am not sure if Jedrick Wills is a left tackle or a right tackle only but DJ Humphries can play both sides in any event so the Cardinals should be comfortable with this pick.   
9. TRADE! Jets - Andrew Thomas - OT - Georgia (Jets get #9; Jaguars get #11 & #68) (pick change previously Javon Kinlaw to Jaguars)
The Jets need an offensive tackle. Now this trade is predicated on teams being nervous about Mekhi Becton because of the drugs issue. I think the Jets need safe and Andrew Thomas is the epitome of safe. They have to flip a 3rd rounder to the Jags to come up two spots and leapfrog the Browns to secure their guy.
10. TRADE! Falcons - Derrick Brown - DT - Auburn (Falcons get #10; Browns get #16 & #47) (pick change previously Jedrick Wills to Browns)

So there are rumours that the Falcons want to get into the top 10. There were similar rumours last year when their reported targets were Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver. That didn't happen but with the Browns having missed out on the top 3 left tackles having seen the Jets jump them they are willing to slide back 6 spots, pick up a 2nd round pick and take stock.
11. (From Jets) Jaguars - Javon Kinlaw - DT - South Carolina (pick change previously Andrew Thomas to Jets)
When considering sliding back two spots it was important to the Jags that both Brown and Kinlaw were still on the board. Brown has gone inbetween times but they still snag Kinlaw here to fortify a defensive line that lost Marcel Dareus and Calais Campbell this spring.
12. (From Raiders) Panthers - Isaiah Simmons - LB - Clemson (pick change previously Jerry Jeudy to Raiders)
You have seen the stories "expect Simmons off the board between 7 and 12" and that is exactly what happens here. Luke Keuchly's replacement has arrived. Home run pick for the rebuilding Panthers.
13. 49ers - Jerry Jeudy - WR - Alabama (pick change previously CeeDee Lamb to 49ers)
I know everyone seems to see the 49ers as a trade down team from this spot given their lack of capital after round 1. But I think they have a real need at wide receiver and depending on the truth of the medical issue I think they might see the chance to add Jeudy as their #1 guy to compliment Deebo Samuel who is a high end #2 as too good to pass up.

14. TRADE! Eagles - Henry Ruggs - WR - Alabama (Eagles get #14; Buccaneers get #21, #53 & #127) (pick change previously Xavier McKinney to Buccaneers)
The Eagles need a receiver who make a decisive contribution in 2020. Most people believe that there are three of those on the board. Once two of them are gone watch the Eagles get twitchy. Tampa might feel that there is enough depth to the class at defensive back to move down in order to pick up a 2nd round pick.

15. Broncos - CJ Henderson - CB - Florida

The Broncos are a  team that went 7-9 in 2019 but has surprisingly few obvious needs. The three options here are interior offensive line and wide receiver, where the value doesn't match the need, and corner where they replaced Chris Harris with AJ Bouye but still have a need on the opposite side. I am not a huge CJ Henderson lover, he has the physical traits but he switches off too often mentally for my liking. That said, he is a scheme fit for Vic Fangio who will ask his corners to play a good dose of man coverage.
16. (From Falcons) Browns - Mekhi Becton - OT - Louisville (pick change previously K'Lavon Chaisson to Falcons)

Having taken stock of the situation since trading back the Browns still decide their main need is to keep Baker Mayfield upright. They decide that Becton, even with the red flags, is worth the risk.
17. Cowboys - Xavier McKinney - S - Alabama (pick change previously Kristian Fulton)

The most obvious weakness on a stacked Dallas roster that underachieved in 2019 was in the secondary. I think their corners are worse than their safeties based on the current state of the roster but they might decide that the value at this spot it McKinney. He is the BPA left by my board.

18. Dolphins - Josh Jones - OT - Houston (pick change previously Justin Herbert)
The Dolphins have to get better at tackle having traded away Laremy Tunsil and let Ju'wan James walk in free agency. There has been a lot of buzz about Austin Jackson of USC being the 5th offensive tackle taken. I still don't see it. I'm sticking with Jones at this spot.

19. (From Raiders) Panthers - Kristian Fulton - CB - LSU (pick change previously Patrick Queen to Raiders)

If the Panthers have slide back and picked up an extra pick as in this mock I expect them to target a corner at that spot. James Bradberry walked in free agency and Donte Jackson blows hot on cold within a series let alone a season. Fulton is a solid, mature, pro-ready corner who could start and upgrade this unit immediately.   
20. Jaguars - Kenneth Murray - LB - Oklahoma

Another team that has questions at linebacker is the Jaguars. Myles Jack has regressed and doesn’t look to have the athleticism he once possessed, Telvin Smith is not coming back and they ended up signing Preston Brown at the end of the season…. After he was cut by the Bengals and the aforementioned, linebacker deficient, Raiders. Kenneth Murray is raw and his play diagnosis skills will really be tested at the next level but he can run, hit and has incredible range.
21. (From Eagles) Buccaneers - Jeff Gladney - CB - TCU (pick change previously Henry Ruggs to Eagles)

Having slid back the Buccaneers miss out on the first tier of the defensive backs and as a result they could go running back (their other major need here). But a lot of the better corners remaining in this class are more zone scheme fits and Todd Bowles needs his guys to be capable of playing press man. This is a bit of a reach by my board but Gladney is a really good scheme fit in Tampa.

22. Vikings  - K'Lavon Chaisson - DE - LSU (pick change previously Zach Baun)

Everson Griffin walked in free agency and while Ifeadi Odenigbo had a nice season as a rotational rusher for the Vikes in 2020 he is yet to start an NFL game having been in the league 3 years. They need to add at the position and this is slide compared to where many think Chaisson could come off the board.
23. Patriots - Zach Baun - LB - Wisconsin (pick change previously Yetur Gross-Matos)
I have no idea what direction the Patriots will go in but they need to improve their front 7. I had Gross-Matos here previously with Baun off the board but they both strike me as Belichickian type players.
24. Saints - Patrick Queen - LB - LSU (pick change previously Jordan Love)
I have had Jordan Love here in two previous versions and while I still think that is possible I reluctantly have flipped to the Saints addressing a need and taking Patrick Queen to revive a pretty flimsy linebacking unit.
25. Vikings - Jaylon Johnson - CB - Utah (pick change previously Tee Higgins)
The Vikings have a need at corner. I have loved Jaylon Johnson since I first watched him but have avoided mocking him as early as I would take him because I thought I was ahead of the consensus. Starting to hear enough noise to suggest I am not. Love him as a fit for Zimmer's defense.
26. (From Dolphins) Chargers - Austin Jackson - OT - USC - (pick change previously Josh Jones to Dolphins)
At this moment in time the Chargers have career right tackle Brian Buluga, who came over from Green Bay in free agency, pencilled in to start at left tackle. That is what I call a need. Jackson is raw and unrefined (some might say that is putting it kindly) but he is a big physically imposing guy who fits the prototype for the position.
27. Seahawks - AJ Epenesa - DE - Iowa
Haven't moved off this one since version 1. Epenesa fits the profile of bigger ends that have played in Pete Carroll's scheme. He isn't going to wow you as a pass rusher but this would be a really nice scheme fit.
28. Ravens - Cesar Ruiz - C - Michigan
Sticking with this pick too. The retirement of Marshal Yanda takes interior offensive line from a sneaky need for the Ravens to a pressing one, especially as current starting center Matt Skura is only on a one year RFA tender. I think Cesar Ruiz from Michigan would be a nice fit here whether he starts at guard or center.
29. Titans - Trevon Diggs - CB - Alabama (pick change previously Ross Blacklock)
Titans could go interior defensive line, or they could go right tackle, but their depth chart still isn't where it needs to be at corner. Logan Ryan is gone and Diggs would likely win the starting job opposite Malcolm Butler.
30. Packers - Justin Jefferson - WR - LSU
I have always said Jefferson needs to go somewhere where he can be a guy and not the guy. Davante Adams is elite but he does have a tendency to get nicked up. He has only managed to play in 16 games twice in 6 seasons. Allen Lazard was their next best receiver in 2019 but he is a limited former UDFA. Jefferson could start day 1 in the slot.
31. TRADE! Colts - Jordan Love - QB - Utah State (Colts get #31; 49ers get #34 & #122) (pick change previously Jaylon Johnson to 49ers)
The old trade up into the first to get the 5th year option on your Quarterback trick. Not sure the Colts would be willing to come up a lot higher than this but they can afford to make this 3 pick jump for the sake of a 4th round pick and to get a talented developmental prospect in to sit behind Philip Rivers. They might recoup that 4th round pick (or potentially even more) by trading Jacoby Brissett to a team needing an upgrade at backup Quarterback.
32. Chiefs - Neville Gallimore - DT - Oklahoma
The Chiefs decided to tag Chris Jones, but signing him long term will still be tricky. Currently they have 10 players costing around 60% of the salary cap in 2020. And even after Sammy Watkins too a pay cut they have less than $3m of cap room which isn't even enough to sign their draft class. That is before they even consider extending Mahomes. I still think there is a chance for Jones to be in a different uniform in 2020 as part of a tag and trade. Neville Gallimore would step straight into that role or take over if they have to let Jones walk after the 2020 season.

 

 

 

There we are then folks..... the final mock of 2020 is in the books. I do see a lot of trades early. I think the truncated evaluation season (pro-days and visits etc) will lead to teams zeroing in on guys that fit their scheme and fit specific needs. Especially at the top of the draft, because filling those needs later is likely to be more difficult as a result of less face to face time to really dig into some of those less heralded prospects.

Edited April 23, 2020 by GunnerBill

[MrEpsYtown]

@GunnerBill

 

Having studied the Ravens over the last week for our mock draft, Ruiz makes a lot of sense. They do like the IOL guys they are developing, but just to add, Matt Skura had a very serious knee injury to end the season in November. He tore his ACL, PCL and MCL while also dislocating his kneecap, so it is a need. Skura may be done, and their is no timetable for his return. If Murray and Queen are gone, I think that is 100% their pick. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

@GunnerBill

 

Having studied the Ravens over the last week for our mock draft, Ruiz makes a lot of sense. They do like the IOL guys they are developing, but just to add, Matt Skura had a very serious knee injury to end the season in November. He tore his ACL, PCL and MCL while also dislocating his kneecap, so it is a need. Skura may be done, and their is no timetable for his return. If Murray and Queen are gone, I think that is 100% their pick. 

 

Yea I almost stuck with the Saints taking Love in which case Queen fell to Baltimore. But I think the likelihood remains the two linebackers are gone and interior offensive line is not deep in this class. Baltimore usually find guys there in the mid rounds but I just feel like that is harder this time.

[Cash]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I almost stuck with the Saints taking Love in which case Queen fell to Baltimore. But I think the likelihood remains the two linebackers are gone and interior offensive line is not deep in this class. Baltimore usually find guys there in the mid rounds but I just feel like that is harder this time.

 

Looks like you even kept the Love writeup for the Saints?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

Looks like you even kept the Love writeup for the Saints?

 

darn!!! Good spot. Thanks.

[Gordio]

If I am Miami I sit tight at five & hopes Tua drops to me.  They are not in a position to give up valuable draft picks.  They have to really accelerate this rebuild if they nail this draft.  They getting either Tua or Herbert, one of them will be there.  Both picks come with risks.  Let the draft come to you.  Stick at 5.