Gunner's 2020 Mock Draft! UPDATE - v3.0 (and FINAL) now posted on p.8

[GunnerBill]

Afternoon all. I didn't manage a pre-free agency mock draft last year but I've had a go this season. Will be updated before the draft arrives in about 10 weeks time.

 

Here goes:

 

1. Bengals - Joe Burrow - QB - LSU
This is an obvious pick. Burrow is one of the highest floor QB prospects to come out in a number of years. He can play at an Andy Dalton level right out of the blocks and will continue to develop from there.
2. Redskins - Chase Young - DE - Ohio St
Another obvious pick. Defensive end might not be the Redskins number 1 need but Young is the best player in this class and an immediate impact player on defense.
3. TRADE! - Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa - QB - Alabama (Dolphins get #3; Lions get #5, #26 and #142)
The Dolphins have loved Tua for over a year. I remain convinced that if the medical checks out he is their guy and they would have no qualms about coming up to get him.
4. Giants - Tristan Wirfs - OT - Wisconsin
This is where it gets interesting. The Giants oline has felt like a work in progress for about 5 years and there are rumours Nate Solder might retire. Tristan Wirfs is the top offensive tackle on my board but if Solder stays in place Wirfs could play inside or at right tackle. He just feels like more of a mauler and therefore a Dave Gettleman type than Jedrick Wills of Alabama.
5. (From Miami) Lions - Jeffrey Okudah - CB - Ohio St
The Detroit Lions have had a hole opposite Darius Slay for as long as anyone can remember and this season there were even the first signs of Slay himself not quite being the elite level player he was. If you can pair him with Jeff Okudah on the other side the porous Lions pass defense might finally stiffen up.
6. Chargers - Justin Herbert - QB - Oregan
The Philip Rivers era is officially over and the Chargers are going to draft a Quarterback. I don't love Herbert and he isn't a lock to be the third QB off the board on my opinion, but he remains the most likely to be picked here.
7. TRADE! - Jets - Jedrick Wills - OT - Alabama (Jets get #7; Panthers get #11, #48 and #79)
Sensing the run on offensive tackles is about to begin the Jets, who desperately need help on the line, are a real candidate to trade up into this spot and the Panthers, who (if the contract they gave to Matt Rhule is to be believed) are about to begin a patient rebuild may well be willing to slide back and take the extra picks. Whether Jedrick Wills is a right tackle only is a fair question but he is probably the most pro-ready tackle in the class.  
8. Cardinals - Mekhi Becton - OT - Louisville
The Cardinals will go offense with this pick as they build around Kyler Murray. A receiver really would not surprise me - Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb are in play - but left tackle DJ Humphries is an impending free agent and Mekhi Becton is a big, imposing physical freak of a prospect with tremendous upside who could solidify that spot. They could still go this way even if Humphries re-signs as I have always thought he was better suited to the right side of the line.
9. Jaguars - Derrick Brown - DT - Auburn
For the second year in a row an elite defensive line prospect falls to the Jags. Last year they Josh Allen to rush from the edge and this year Brown becomes a plug and play guy inside, which could become an immediate need given that Marcel Dareus and Calais Campbell are both possible cut / trade candidates and 2018 first round pick Taven Bryan hasn’t yet delivered on his potential.
10. Browns - Andrew Thomas - OT - Georgia
All of which would leave Andrew Thomas as the most likely candidate to go to Cleveland. Their oline was desperate in 2019 and they need to do a better job protecting Baker Mayfield. Thomas seemed to be the consensus #1 offensive tackle for much of the season but there are questions about his ceiling and as a result he could end up as the 4th of these guys off the board.
11. (From New York) Panthers - Javon Kinlaw - DT - South Carolina
Having moved back and picked up two additional day two picks the Panthers are still in position to snag one of the top two defensive tackles in this class. And it is a position of need. Vernon Butler and Gerald McCoy are both free agents, Dontarie Poe is a likely cap casualty and Kawann Short has just turned 31 and coming off a year out injured. Kinlaw is a penetrative 3 tech type player who could become a foundation piece in the rebuilt Panthers team.
12. Raiders - Jerry Jeudy - WR - Alabama
The Raiders know they need to get better at receiver. The Antonio Brown episode is behind them but Jerry Jeudy has smooth, precise route running in common with Brown. He is the best route runner to come out in a number of drafts and will fit nicely in Gruden's west coast scheme.
13. Colts - CeeDee Lamb - WR - Oklahoma
The Colts could go Quarterback here, but I’m just not sure I see either Jordan Love or Jacob Eason as guys Frank Reich and Chris Ballard are likely to fall in love with. They might instead focus on giving Jacoby Brissett more weapons. Their top receiver in 2019 was Zach Pascal, a third year undrafted player who had been cut by two teams before landing with the Colts. TY Hilton is still a legitimate speed thread when healthy but giving him the bigger bodied CeeDee Lamb as a running mate could make a lot of sense.

14. Buccaneers - Isaiah Simmons - LB - Clemson
I believe that Jameis Winston will be back in Tampa in 2020 so this is where the fall of Isaiah Simmons ends and the Buccaneers would dash to the podium to make this pick. Simmons is one of the best 4 or 5 players in this draft but might slide because he doesn’t have a clear cut position. But Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles when partnered together in Arizona showed their willingness to roll the dice on this sort of selection when they took Deone Bucannon in the first round in 2014.  

15. Broncos - Henry Ruggs - WR – Alabama

For a team that went 7-9 in 2019 the Broncos has surprisingly few obvious needs. The could do with interior offensive line help and they need upgrades at corner too but the value doesn’t appear to exist at #15 in either of those two spots so they might well look to add more weapons for sophomore Quarterback Drew Lock. Courtland Sutton is already one of the best young wideouts in football but adding the dynamic Henry Ruggs on the opposite side would make this an offense to watch in 2020.
16. Falcons - K'Lavon Chaisson - DE – LSU

From a 7-9 team with surprisingly few major needs to one with a hatful of them. The Falcons roster is in the biggest mess of any in the NFL right now. It is ageing, lacks depth and has major salary cap issues. They could go practically any position except for Quarterback and receiver with this pick. They have announced they won’t re-sign Vic Beasley so maybe they go right back to the defensive end well with LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson in an attempt to upgrade their pass rush.
17. Cowboys - Xavier McKinney - S – Alabama

The most obvious weakness on a stacked Dallas roster that underachieved in 2019 was in the secondary. Xavier McKinney can do it all. He can hit, he can cover, he can blitz and he is a leader. The Cowboys will still need to find help at corner later in the draft but McKinney is the number 1 safety in the draft and too good to pass up at #17.

18. Dolphins - Josh Jones - OT - Houston
The Miami Dolphins tackle play last season was an abomination. No surprise as they allowed Ju’waan James to join Denver in free agency and then traded away Laremy Tunsil. They have to seek to rebuild that line for whoever their new Quarterback may be. Jones is a good mover and has excellent physical traits but he is raw and might require some patience in Miami.

19. Raiders - Patrick Queen - LB – LSU

The Las Vegas Raiders have struggled at linebacker for a number of seasons and their second first round pick in this draft is a perfect opportunity to do something about it. Both Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray are still on the board but I give the edge to Queen at this spot – especially as Mike Mayock demonstrated last year he loves taking players from winning programmes.  
20. Jaguars - Kenneth Murray - LB – Oklahoma

Another team that has questions at linebacker is the Jaguars. Myles Jack has regressed and doesn’t look to have the athleticism he once possessed, Telvin Smith is not coming back and they ended up signing Preston Brown at the end of the season…. After he was cut by the Bengals and the aforementioned, linebacker deficient, Raiders. Kenneth Murray is raw and his play diagnosis skills will really be tested at the next level but he can run, hit and has incredible range.
21. Eagles - Jalon Reagor - WR – TCU

Everyone knows the Eagles need receiver help. Alshon Jeffrey has struggled to stay healthy, Nelson Agholor has struggled to catch the ball (and is an impending free agent) and DeSean Jackson is 33. However, what a healthy Jackson did show in his 2019 season debut, was the value to Carson Wentz and this offense of a genuine deep threat. Therefore I can see the Eagles passing over the likes of Shenault and Higgins for one of the real speedsters and I just give the edge to Reagor over KJ Hamler.  

22. Bills - Tee Higgins - WR - Clemson
The Bills are another team that needs more playmaking ability from its receiving corps. I think if you are looking for prospects who could develop into a bona fide #1 receiver then the most likely fit left on the board is Tee Higgins. I expect him to run better than many expect at the Combine.
23. Patriots - Yetur Gross-Matos - DE - Penn St
This feels like a classic Patriot pick. A guy to play the trenches who is not flashy but effective and will "do his job." I see some similarities between his game and Trey Flowers who had a massive 2018 season with New England before moving on to Detroit.
24. Saints - Jordan Love - QB - Utah State
I don't believe that Taysom Hill is truly the next franchise Quarterback of the New Orleans Saints. If Brees is back (I expect him to be) and you can sit Love for a year and develop him then he might be worth a flier at this spot.
25. Vikings - Kristian Fulton - CB - LSU
It wouldn't shock me if Fulton went higher than this. He is up there on my board but I don't think there will be much consensus on the #2 corner in the class and that could lead to them sliding a bit as offensive tackles and wide receivers go. Xavier Rhodes needs replacing in Minnesota and Fulton has the skillset to be that guy.
26. (From Miami) Lions - Marlon Davidson - DT - Auburn
The Lions could go almost anywhere with this pick but I suspect it goes on defense to help keep the defensive minded Head Coach and the GM his future is tied to in a job. Davidson would be a massive presence on the D line and he is versatile enough to play almost any of the interior positions which is vital in Patricia's scheme that likes to mix up its fronts.
27. Seahawks - AJ Epenesa - DE - Iowa
This might depend on what Seattle chooses to do with Jadaveon Clowney in free agency. If they can afford to they should pay him, but if they don't Epenesa fits the profile of bigger ends that have played in Pete Carroll's scheme. He isn't going to wow you as a pass rusher and as a result I think he goes later than many expect but this would be a really nice scheme fit.
28. Ravens - Jonathan Taylor - RB - Wisconsin
A sneaky need for a Ravens team that doesn't have many is running back. A number of teams were able to take Ingram away towards the end of the year and while some of that was scheme some might have been attributable to his 30 year old legs lacking some of their old pop. Jonathan Taylor is my #1 running back in this class and him pounding the ball between the tackles would really help set up the outside run game even more for Lamar Jackson.
29. Titans - CJ Henderson - CB - Florida
If Tennessee is going to pay Derrick Henry to remain in Nashville it likely means cornerback Logan Ryan and right tackle Jack Conklin will not be retained. This pick comes down to replacing one or the other of those two players for my money. I considered Austin Jackson the tackle from USC but came down in favour of CJ Henderson the corner from Florida who some have as a top 15 pick but I see more as a day 1 / day 2 borderline guy.
30. Packers - Laviska Shenault - WR - Colorado
Davante Adams is elite but he does have a tendency to get nicked up. He has only managed to play in 16 games twice in 6 seasons. Allen Lazard was their next best receiver in 2019 but he is a limited former UDFA. Shenault could play in the slot or outside and would provide some run after catch ability.
31. 49ers - Austin Jackson - OT - USC
A lot of people are mocking an interior offensive lineman to the 49ers but I am slightly bucking that trend by giving them a tackle. Left tackle Joe Staley is 35 and rumoured to be considering retirement. They could switch third year right tackle Mike McGlinchey over to protect Garoppolo's blindside and plug Jackson straight in on the right. They could also be a major trade down target if a team wants to get up for a Quarterback here (maybe Jacob Eason?) because after this pick the 49ers are not scheduled to pick again until round 5.
32. Chiefs - Neville Gallimore - DT - Oklahoma
The Chiefs have a touch decision to make on Chris Jones. Currently they have 8 players scheduled to cost almost half of the estimated $225m salary cap in 2020. Of those the only cuttable players who provide any savings are Sammy Watkins (easy cut), Travis Kelce (will not be cut) and Eric Fisher (starting left tackle). That is before they even consider extending Mahomes or trying to keep hold of Jones. In short, it is hard to see how they manage it. I expect Jones to be in a different uniform in 2020. Neville Gallimore would step straight into that role as an interior penetrator having lodged 11.5 sacks over his last two years with Oklahoma.

 

 

There you go Bills fans.... flame away! (Not expecting my Tee Higgins pick to be popular)

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Mountain Man]

I know AJ Epenesa is the complete opposite of a trendy social pick, but he'll be a very solid 10 year + pro in this league. Personally I'd take him and you will guarantee B+ every year for a decade

Edited February 15, 2020 by Mountain Man

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I do not know enough about college football to have an opinion on mock drafts as far as player selection, but I got to love a man who puts out a mock draft where there's only one player at a position other than QB or OL/DL drafted in the top 11!!!!!!!

 

Edgy!

 

If we like Yeter Gross-Matos or AJ Epenesa, from everything Beane has said I would expect us to grab one of them at 22 and draft WR later.  But we'll know more in a month.  In fact I predict that Beane has spent the last month doodling schemes where he could work some trades and move up for the Edge he wants on the back of his family's grocery lists.

[Capco]

The trade for Tua seems a little off.  #26 and #142 to move up 2 spots?  

 

I'm not sure Higgins will fall to 22 either, especially if he has a good combine.  

 

But a good read nonetheless.  Thank you Gunner.  

Edited February 15, 2020 by Capco

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I do not know enough about college football to have an opinion on mock drafts as far as player selection, but I got to love a man who puts out a mock draft where there's only one player at a position other than QB or OL/DL drafted in the top 11!!!!!!!

 

Edgy!

 

If we like Yeter Gross-Matos or AJ Epenesa, from everything Beane has said I would expect us to grab one of them at 22 and draft WR later.  But we'll know more in a month.  In fact I predict that Beane has spent the last month doodling schemes where he could work some trades and move up for the Edge he wants on the back of his family's grocery lists.

 

I think the OTs will go a bit higher than they should on pure grade..... but there is just so much need at that spot in the top dozen teams picking.

1 minute ago, Capco said:

The trade for Tua seems a little off.  #26 and #142 to move up 2 spots?  

 

I reckon there will be more than 1 team bidding for that pick and it will drive up the price.

[John from Riverside]

I would be good with higgins

But shenaut reminds me so much of Debo Samuel who I love

[qwksilver]

Nice Work Gunner. Thanks.

I like the WR though my gut says they go DE. 

[Mountain Man]

8 minutes ago, Capco said:

The trade for Tua seems a little off.  #26 and #142 to move up 2 spots?  

 

I'm not sure Higgins will fall to 22 either, especially if he has a good combine.  

 

But a good read nonetheless.  Thank you Gunner.  

I think that's fairly realistic for Tua. Given the competition from LA and Carolina, Miami will have to offer a late 1 at least 

[Westside]

I like this draft. Though I wouldn't complain if we grabbed one of DE's instead. Nice job Gunner.

[purple haze]

17 minutes ago, Mountain Man said:

I know AJ Epenesa is the complete opposite of a trendy social pick, but he'll be a very solid 10 year + pro in this league. Personally I'd take him and you will guarantee B+ every year for a decade

Not for me.  The Bills have B+ players.   They need more difference makers.  It's time to go get some players who are that or have that potential.

[thebandit27]

Great stuff as always.

 

I generally agree on many items, but I really like that you also see an early run on tackles.

 

Unfortunately I also think that all of Lamb/JJ/Ruggs are gone in picks 11-15.

Not a big Higgins guy in round 1 myself. Reagor I like quite a bit though.

[Lurker]

Nice work.   I like the top 10 slots, for sure.

 

I'm still not a fan of Higgens at 22.   In the best WR class in memory, he just seems like a safe, unexceptional guy who'll always leave you wanting something more as a 'first round pick.'    I'd rather be bold and go up (modestly) for a playmaker or drop down for a mid-round role player.    Shenault at 30 (plus an extra 3rd) would even be a good value.     

 

Tee just seems like a doughnut hole to me...

[GoBills808]

Colts aren’t going WR in the first after taking Campbell in 2nd last year, they have a ton of wideouts and other needs

 

I don’t think Broncos will go anything other than offensive line w/ Lock and Sutton already in place, that line was awful 

 

And personally I hate the idea of using a first on the 5th wideout off the board when there will be value elsewhere but that’s just me

 

? nice job

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Colts aren’t going WR in the first after taking Campbell in 2nd last year, they have a ton of wideouts and other needs

 

I don’t think Broncos will go anything other than offensive line w/ Lock and Sutton already in place, that line was awful 

 

And personally I hate the idea of using a first on the 5th wideout off the board when there will be value elsewhere but that’s just me

 

? nice job

 

I could see the Colts going elsewhere but trying to marry up fit and value at that spot is tricky. They need an EDGE rusher but I'm not in love with that 2nd wave of edge guys. Similarly with Denver.... they really need line help, but the 4 top tackles would be gone and their biggest need is inside and it isn't a great interior class at the top end.

[whatdrought]

Don't hate it, but I prefer both Shenault and Epenesa over Higgins. 

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Colts aren’t going WR in the first after taking Campbell in 2nd last year, they have a ton of wideouts and other needs

 

WR is very much in play for the Colts.  They need to get more explosive on offense and Hilton is in the last year of his contract.   

 

 https://www.colts.com/news/mock-draft-monday-2020-nfl-draft-0210

[Kmart128]

Id take Jefferson and Shenault over Higgins.... Higgins has been a bust at the collegiate level despite having a future top overall pick throwing to him.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

WR is very much in play for the Colts.  They need to get more explosive on offense and Hilton is in the last year of his contract.   

 

 https://www.colts.com/news/mock-draft-monday-2020-nfl-draft-0210

 

And Hilton has been banged up too. A lot will have them going QB and maybe they will but I'm not so sure.

1 minute ago, Kmart128 said:

Id take Jefferson and Shenault over Higgins.... Higgins has been a bust at the collegiate level despite having a future top overall pick throwing to him.

 

I get that people don't like Higgins... a lot seem low on him... but a bust? With over 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in the past two seasons? Yes - he has a great QB to help, but if that qualifies him as a bust then I wouldn't mind picking a few more busts.

[Lurker]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

And Hilton has been banged up too. A lot will have them going QB and maybe they will but I'm not so sure.

 

I think they need to find out if Brissette is the answer or not.   Give him some playmakers and if he falls flat again, QB becomes the priority next year...

[Teddy KGB]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Not a big Higgins guy in round 1 myself. Reagor I like quite a bit though.

What’s there not to like ?    His floor is Jarvis Landry imo.   

Edited February 15, 2020 by Teddy KGB