2020 QB Market

[dayman]

Just a few select mentions to frame the issue:

 

-Brees

-Brady

-Rivers

-Winston

-Tannehill

-Dak

-Bridgewater

-Stafford (lots of noise that he is trade market)

 

Now, of course, not every one of those guys is going to end up being truly available (it's still early some may resign quickly or even retire). Also, I'm not claiming all of those guys are fantastic pick ups (not all of them are, obviously). 

 

But I think the trend is clear. You've got a certain class/age of guys getting toward the end and some big hits with some young guys (Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) as well as some other young guys teams are optimistic about. 

 

My take? The league may be going a bit too far at the point where a Brady, Rivers, and Stafford are all potentially attainable. It's still really hard to find QBs. As Bills fans, we know damn sure the hell of being in QB wilderness, how much it cripples the team, and how long and hard it can be to get out (potentially decades). In terms of young blood coming in and working out--still rare. Really just Mahomes at this point is confirmed (at least until Lamar puts together a follow-up season). The grass is not always greener and some of these teams may end up finding out the hard way that even average QB play isn't a given and you should lock that in if you can. 

 

Anyway, mostly a general observation but as this whole thing plays out given our amount of a cash I would have no problem adding someone to challenge Josh and at worst end up a great back up. Seems like an insane year for QBs and we have a pretty good roster. An injury or bad streak for Josh and I would love to have the option to not lose the season by plugging one of these guys in and seeing what they can do.

 

Again, not necessarily saying everyone I listed is worth signing--the main point is that just because we like Josh doesn't mean we should ignore the fact that somehow the value of "at least average" QB play seems to be currently undervalued in terms of availability. We've gone a long time with below average. We should shop and considering buying another QB this off-season. 

Edited February 14, 2020 by dayman

[Warcodered]

Brees, Brady, and Rivers are basically a generation of QBs coming to a close. Dak, Tannehill, and Stafford probably aren't really available and if Winston is available it's due to his failure in Tampa Bay though who knows now that he got laser eye surgery.

 

I mean if you can bring one of them in cheaply to be a back up great but none of them are really a solid solution at QB 1 at this point.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Warcodered

[Augie]

They will NOT be adding anyone to challenge Josh this year, and almost certainly next. That’s just not going to happen.

 

Finding a QB does not seem to be the virtually insurmountable challenge it was even just a few years ago. I think the kids are developing much younger than they used to be. Before my son’s senior year  in HS their QB was poached by a team that plays on ESPN. They looked around the locker room and he was the best athlete. They did their best to make him a QB in short order, and he was POY in conference, among other honors. 

 

This isn’t a brag about my son, he was actually WAY behind as a QB. These kids are at 7 on 7’s all summer since middle school. FAR more developed that he was on the finer points. These days they take great athletes (not just the tall statue) and make them QB’s when they are young. I don’t think getting your guy is as hard as it used to be. Not easy, but doable.  

 

I just don’t think the QB bust rate is as high as it used to be because of the early development, but maybe that’s just in my mind. 

 

For those reasons I think Josh is safe as long as he keeps making progress. 

 

 

.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Augie

[dayman]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

They will NOT be adding anyone to challenge Josh this year, and almost certainly next. That’s just not going to happen.

 

Finding a QB does not seem to be the insurmountable challenge it was even just a few years ago. I think the kids are developing much younger than they used to be. Before my son’s senior year  in HS their QB was poached by a team that plays on ESPN. They looked around the locker room and he was the best athlete. They did their best to make him a QB in short order, and he was POY in conference, among other honors. 

 

This isn’t a brag about my son, he was actually WAY behind as a QB. These kids are at 7 on 7’s all summer since middle school. FAR more developed that he was on the finer points. These days they take great athletes (not just the tall statue) and make them QB’s when they are young. I don’t think getting your guy is as hard as it used to be. Not easy, but doable.

 

For those reasons I think Josh is safe as long as he keeps making progress. 

 

Honestly, this reply kind of hits the nail on the head of what I think seems to be the general sentiment but is actually just wrong (in my opinion, or course). It very much can still end up being an insurmountable challenge for any team that ends up in need. You can still end up going years and year in a row without even average play if you aren't careful. Lock in average? Most teams would be better of to take the bird in hand and go ahead and lock in average. 

 

We've got Josh and that's great. If there is a chance to get Josh and somebody we would have been happy to have in the 10 years prior to Josh--we should do it. Get greedy. If we have to spend and get a little fat salary-wise at QB that is perfectly fine and a great problem to have. 

Edited February 14, 2020 by dayman

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, dayman said:

 

Honestly, this reply kind of hits the nail on the head of what I think seems to be the general sentiment but is actually just wrong (in my opinion, or course). It very much can still end up being an insurmountable challenge for any team that ends up in need. You can still end up going years and year in a row without even average play if you aren't careful. Lock in average? Most teams would be better of to take the bird in hand and go ahead and lock in average. 

 

 

 

Of course, we can have differing opinions, and I didn’t mean to throw a wet blanket on things out of the gate. It’s just too soon to be questioning the long term prognosis for Allen. Anyone viewed as a threat for the starting position undermines his status as our future. Could we upgrade over Barkley? Sure, if the right situation arises and it won’t disrupt the QB room. 

 

JMO

 

 

.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Augie

[BuffaloBills1998]

I say this, if nobody looks Tannehill’s direction then I hope Beane gives him a look. I would feel lot more comfortable if Tannehill was backing up Allen 

[ghostwriter]

Barkley and Allen is fine. Case closed.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Dalton is likely to end up on a roster where a team is looking for average qb play or as a bridge to get a new draft choice ready to play.  Don't forget about Hill either.  He'll get a chance to compete for a starting job somewhere.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

3 hours ago, dayman said:

Just a few select mentions to frame the issue:

 

-Brees

-Brady

-Rivers

-Winston

-Tannehill

-Dak

-Bridgewater

-Stafford (lots of noise that he is trade market)

 

Now, of course, not every one of those guys is going to end up being truly available (it's still early some may resign quickly or even retire). Also, I'm not claiming all of those guys are fantastic pick ups (not all of them are, obviously). 

 

But I think the trend is clear. You've got a certain class/age of guys getting toward the end and some big hits with some young guys (Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) as well as some other young guys teams are optimistic about. 

 

My take? The league may be going a bit too far at the point where a Brady, Rivers, and Stafford are all potentially attainable. It's still really hard to find QBs. As Bills fans, we know damn sure the hell of being in QB wilderness, how much it cripples the team, and how long and hard it can be to get out (potentially decades). In terms of young blood coming in and working out--still rare. Really just Mahomes at this point is confirmed (at least until Lamar puts together a follow-up season). The grass is not always greener and some of these teams may end up finding out the hard way that even average QB play isn't a given and you should lock that in if you can. 

 

Anyway, mostly a general observation but as this whole thing plays out given our amount of a cash I would have no problem adding someone to challenge Josh and at worst end up a great back up. Seems like an insane year for QBs and we have a pretty good roster. An injury or bad streak for Josh and I would love to have the option to not lose the season by plugging one of these guys in and seeing what they can do.

 

Again, not necessarily saying everyone I listed is worth signing--the main point is that just because we like Josh doesn't mean we should ignore the fact that somehow the value of "at least average" QB play seems to be currently undervalued in terms of availability. We've gone a long time with below average. We should shop and considering buying another QB this off-season. 

 

In summary...I would have no problem adding someone to challenge Josh and at worst end up a great back up.  Did you really need three "paragraphs" to get to the point of your thread?

[Doc Brown]

Not a fan of Barkley's.  He was awful with the Bears and there was a reason he was available to sign midseason.  I'd look to upgrade given Allen's style of play makes him more prone to injury.  Case Keenum would be the most realistic option as I doubt Mariota would sign for a team that has an established #1 QB (unless he's desperate). 

[pretzel logic]

None of them, I'd draft a mid round qb for long term development before I'd sign a new veteran QB 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Dalton is likely to end up on a roster where a team is looking for average qb play or as a bridge to get a new draft choice ready to play.  Don't forget about Hill either.  He'll get a chance to compete for a starting job somewhere.

 

Hill is an RFA. The only place he will get to compete for anything will be in New Orleans. 

[CorkScrewHill]

I like where this is going ...but with a few changes. 1) Why be satisfied with bringing on one of them. Go all out and get both Brees and Brady. Sign them each to minimum veteran prove it deals because they are not going to get $25 - $30 million from another team and I think both would jump at the chance to  fight it out to be a backup  in Buffalo. They would not want us to go for max deals as they would want us to spend the $25 million or so on our up and coming players. Now is when this gets controversial  so hear me out (i.e. the thing people say when they are going to spout nonsense) Brees and Brady are 2 and 3 on  the depth chart because we  finally undo the mistake of 2018 and trade a first rounder for Josh "rosen from the ashes" Rosen. You may say why a first when he can be had for a sixth and a bag of stale Cheetos. First 1) Stale Cheetos are delicious (open the bag and let them sit for a few days  .. perfection) 2) We want to trigger to Josh that we are sorry for our previous transgression and want to make it up to the most pocket ready QB in the 2018 draft. We want to reward Josh Allen for his potential so after we cut him we add him to the Practice Squad (there is no way he doesn't clear waivers as everyone has seen that he has no ability to lead a team). Once these moves are made I would immediately buy 2021 - 2030 Super Bowl tickets as you know we would be in it 80% of the time.

Edited February 14, 2020 by CorkScrewHill

[hjnick]

CorkScrew was pretty much how I was thinking about this topic.

 

1. Josh Allen is our starter.  We do not need anyone else behind him 'to be ready'.  We will live and die with this production.

2. How much at a minimum are you going to pay your BACKUP QB?  Nobody on that list is going to get less than 25MIL to play.  So you basically want to suck up 25MIL for a QB that's going to sit on the bench!

3. Barkley's cap hit this year is 2MIL.  He is a capable backup.

4. Let's use that 25MIL somewhere where's it actually needed... anywhere but QB...

[Buffalo Junction]

I think the NFL is in a transition phase at QB. Even with Brady, Brees, etc nearing the end there is more talent at the position than there has been for a while. I’m not saying that there’s necessarily more talent at the top, but talent is coming in and coaches are figuring out how to use it. It looks like there’s going to be a bunch of middling QBs - system guys, bridge QBs, etc - that might create a middle class of FAs over the next five years.... Tannehill, Bridgewater, Foles, Winston, etc. This could potentially lead to a more diverse and competitive league.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Buffalo Junction

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

48 minutes ago, hjnick said:

CorkScrew was pretty much how I was thinking about this topic.

 

1. Josh Allen is our starter.  We do not need anyone else behind him 'to be ready'.  We will live and die with this production.

2. How much at a minimum are you going to pay your BACKUP QB?  Nobody on that list is going to get less than 25MIL to play.  So you basically want to suck up 25MIL for a QB that's going to sit on the bench!

3. Barkley's cap hit this year is 2MIL.  He is a capable backup.

4. Let's use that 25MIL somewhere where's it actually needed... anywhere but QB...

 

Backup QB often can bring a different view in film study vs. what Allen sees, or the QB coach, or offensive coordinator.  Allen is still young, he's still learning - if barkley can be improved upon by bringing in someone like Henne, Moore, or McCoy - i say do it.

[stuvian]

calling Rivers to the Buccaneers

[hjnick]

23 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Backup QB often can bring a different view in film study vs. what Allen sees, or the QB coach, or offensive coordinator.  Allen is still young, he's still learning - if barkley can be improved upon by bringing in someone like Henne, Moore, or McCoy - i say do it.

If we can get them for the same price, I don't have a problem with that.  I just don't want to sink more money into QB.  Spend the money at other places.

[MJS]

Tannehil is going to be given a chance to start somewhere, and he'll probably stay where he is on a prove it deal. I imagine Dalton will be given the same type of situation, but he'd be a great backup to have. I'd be happy to sign a guy like Mariota as a backup. he has gotten his team to the playoffs a few times and has shown he can win games. Bridgewater is another who would be a great backup. Keenum has shown through the years that he can be a quality backup. I'd stay completely away from Winston.

 

There are options out there to upgrade the backup position. It will just depend how desperate some of the QB needy teams are.

[SoTier]

16 hours ago, Augie said:

They will NOT be adding anyone to challenge Josh this year, and almost certainly next. That’s just not going to happen.

 

Finding a QB does not seem to be the virtually insurmountable challenge it was even just a few years ago. I think the kids are developing much younger than they used to be. Before my son’s senior year  in HS their QB was poached by a team that plays on ESPN. They looked around the locker room and he was the best athlete. They did their best to make him a QB in short order, and he was POY in conference, among other honors. 

 

This isn’t a brag about my son, he was actually WAY behind as a QB. These kids are at 7 on 7’s all summer since middle school. FAR more developed that he was on the finer points. These days they take great athletes (not just the tall statue) and make them QB’s when they are young. I don’t think getting your guy is as hard as it used to be. Not easy, but doable.  

 

I just don’t think the QB bust rate is as high as it used to be because of the early development, but maybe that’s just in my mind. 

 

For those reasons I think Josh is safe as long as he keeps making progress. 

 

 

.

 

I don't think that the QB bust rate has changed.  What's "changed" I think is simply our perspective.  

 

In the last decade (2009-2018) these QBs have been drafted in the first round:

• 2009: Matthew Stafford (#1), Mark Sanchez (#5), Josh Freeman (#17)
• 2010: Sam Bradford (#1), Tim Tebow (#25)
• 2011: Cam Newton (#1),  Jake Locker (#8), Blaine Gabbert (#10), Christian Ponder (#12)
• 2012: Andrew Luck (#1), Robert Griffin III (#2), Ryan Tannehill (#8), Brandon Weeden (#22)
• 2013: EJ Manuel (#16)
• 2014: Blake Bortles (#3), Johnny Manziel (#22), Tony Bridgewater (#32)
• 2015: Jameis Winston (#1), Marcus Mariota (#2)
• 2016: Jared Goff (#1), Carson Wentz (#2), Paxton Lynch (#26)
• 2017: Mitchell Trubisky (#3), Patrick Mahomes (#10), Deshaun Watson (#12)
• 2018: Baker Mayfield (#1), Sam Darnold (#3), Josh Allen (#7), Josh Rosen (#10), Lamar Jackson (#32)
•  

These are unquestionable top NFL QBs.  These are decent starters but definitely not unquestionably top NFL QBs. These are promising but still unproven QBs.

 

I think 2 things skew our perspective of younger QBs.  First is that the jury is still out on most of the young QBs taken in the last 3 years, including Goff and Wentz who have looked really good but not great, although Wentz's performance the last month of the 2019 season may have put him into the "top NFL QB" level.   The second reason that it appears that QBs are not failing as much as previously is that there has been some outstanding QBs coming from after the first round.  In 2011, Andy Dalton came from the second round while in 2012 there was Russell Wilson in the third and Kirk Cousins in the fourth.  Certainly Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo from the 2014 second round have had better careers than any of the 2014 first rounders.  Jacoby Brisett came from the third round of 2016, and Dak Prescott from the fourth round of the same draft.  Prior to 2011, you could count on the fingers of one hand the number of good/great QBs drafted after the first round since 2000 and have two unused digits: Tom Brady (2000), Drew Brees (2001), and Matt Schaub (2004).

 

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by SoTier