good Joe B review of Allen's 2019 progress (vs 2018)

[H2o]

Seeing the improvement from Allen, given they provided him with a few more resources on offense, is extremely encouraging. I want to see them get him a couple more REAL receiving targets in this draft and upgrade the OL again in FA. I still believe that Ford's best spot on the OL would be LG and I want to see us get a premium RT in FA like Conklin. If we do these things, as well as solidify the DE position, get a LB to replace Lorax, and some quality depth at CB? Yes, this team is going to make a run next year. 

[John from Riverside]

Honestly......the eye test says that Allen is improving.....both in accuracy, ball  placement, and decision making.

 

Would like to see him get more accurate on the long throws....but I am happy with how he is progressing

[billykay]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Anyone who has viewed Allen objectively understands that he has made meaningful strides and is clearly trending higher.  We aren't talking about a miniscule improvement either, it was a pretty big step forward.   And knowing Allen and his eagerness to learn and improve, his great selfless attitude, intelligence and out-of-this-world physical tools, you'd have to be a very foolish person to not believe that he is going to take another big step forward next year.

 

He's going to be borderline Pro bowl level.  Take it to the bank.

I agree. The pre snap reads will come with time. What he has to improve on right away is the 20-40 yard throws to open receivers. What a difference this would make for the Bill's offense. He has a tendency to overthrow these.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I look forward to this thread making it to page 117.

 

Good Sir:

  This Is Not Logical

Signed,

  Truth

 

40 minutes ago, cage said:

Why do you say you're not a JoeB fan, but liked the article?  I read the piece and its very consistent with his typical approach to these stories

 

I disagree. 

 

Too often Joe stays on the surface and makes definitive-sounding pronouncements or produces what appear to be metrics (for example, grades) based on criteria that are unstated.  There are examples of these traits within the article, too (some of which I called out), but I felt he did a better job at breaking things down and defending his thoughts.

 

Just my opinion, that's all.

 

 

[Magox]

15 minutes ago, billykay said:

I agree. The pre snap reads will come with time. What he has to improve on right away is the 20-40 yard throws to open receivers. What a difference this would make for the Bill's offense. He has a tendency to overthrow these.

 

Yep.  As I had implied, he's not a finished product but the improvement is undeniable.  What I believe is that there is a better than ok chance of him making similar strides in his third year.  

[Mickey]

Well you know what they say about Josh, he "holds the ball too long". But then, they also say that he "extends plays".

Some say that he "tries to do too much"? But they also marvel at his Houdini like ability to turn a disaster of a play into a first down and to carry the offense on his back.

I guess I'm confused. Maybe it makes sense if what is going on is that, with perfect hindsight 20/20 vision, we complain about whatever he does when it doesn't work and give him a standing-o whenever it does?

 

Nah, that would be crazy.

 

Gee, here is a scary thought: what if all Allen manages to do next year is get us in to the playoffs with 2 weeks to spare, again? Boy that would be awful. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Well you know what they say about Josh, he "holds the ball too long". But then, they also say that he "extends plays".

Some say that he "tries to do too much"? But they also marvel at his Houdini like ability to turn a disaster of a play into a first down and to carry the offense on his back.

I guess I'm confused. Maybe it makes sense if what is going on is that, with perfect hindsight 20/20 vision, we complain about whatever he does when it doesn't work and give him a standing-o whenever it does?

 

Nah, that would be crazy.

 

Gee, here is a scary thought: what if all Allen manages to do next year is get us in to the playoffs with 2 weeks to spare, again? Boy that would be awful. 

 

I Love You, Man.  And I'll give you All My Bud Lite!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

Yep.  As I had implied, he's not a finished product but the improvement is undeniable.  What I believe is that there is a better than ok chance of him making similar strides in his third year.  

 

I went back and listened to Beane's postseason presser (to find the quote about Phillips) and it's very clear that Beane agrees with you. 

 

Well, he is pretty much obliged to "stand by his man" that he traded up to #7 to draft, but his words and his tone of voice had the "ring of sincerity"

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'm thinking that Allen choked a bit in the 4th quarter as the Texans cut the Bills lead.  And this isn't surprising in the least given that it was Allen's FIRST playoff game and it was on the road to boot.

 

I think we tend to underestimate just how damaging the defense giving up that 75 yard TD drive AND a 2 point conversion really was.  All of a sudden the game goes from the Bills having a commanding lead to a one score contest.  At that point Allen tries to do to much, fumbles and he's clearly shaken.  What I like though is that he got his act together late and led us to a tying FG and was driving us towards the winning score in OT.  Allen played well, if a bit chaotic, in those last 2 drives. And this was in spite of being on the road in front of a fired up crowd.

 

IMO Allen acquitted himself well under the circumstances in that playoff game.

 

 

 

I find myself both agreeing/disagreeing with this take.

 

I do think the defense deserves a LARGE share of the blame for the loss. As I've been saying for a year plus, they do not have that elite edge player able to FINISH plays and make QB's miserable. Hughes is good. Murphy is Murphy. Shaq is not a pass rusher per se.

 

You just wouldn't see that kind of comeback if the defense had that elite disruptor nor would you have seen Mayfield driving down the field with a clean pocket in the Cleveland loss. The defense is good, but missing that element, and it catches up to them when the opposing QB is "hot."

 

And while I agree the team and Allen were both a bit shellshocked by the turn of events, he did have an opportunity to be "that guy." He wasn't. It WAS his first playoff game and the sequence of events was bizarre, so those are mitigating factors. But if he's gonna be that guy, he'll learn from the experience and become prepared for any situation that may arise over the course of a game. He did not get this done at Houston. That's not good. It also doesn't mean he CAN'T get it done going forward. We'll see.

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I find myself both agreeing/disagreeing with this take.

 

I do think the defense deserves a LARGE share of the blame for the loss. As I've been saying for a year plus, they do not have that elite edge player able to FINISH plays and make QB's miserable. Hughes is good. Murphy is Murphy. Shaq is not a pass rusher per se.

 

You just wouldn't see that kind of comeback if the defense had that elite disruptor nor would you have seen Mayfield driving down the field with a clean pocket in the Cleveland loss. The defense is good, but missing that element, and it catches up to them when the opposing QB is "hot."

 

And while I agree the team and Allen were both a bit shellshocked by the turn of events, he did have an opportunity to be "that guy." He wasn't. It WAS his first playoff game and the sequence of events was bizarre, so those are mitigating factors. But if he's gonna be that guy, he'll learn from the experience and become prepared for any situation that may arise over the course of a game. He did not get this done at Houston. That's not good. It also doesn't mean he CAN'T get it done going forward. We'll see.

The Bills were a bad blindside blocking call away from kicking the game winning FG...if that had happened would you still be saying he didn't 'get it done'?

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

The Bills were a bad blindside blocking call away from kicking the game winning FG...if that had happened would you still be saying he didn't 'get it done'?

That's a matter of perception, and yes, results matter. You do have a point. Had that play been executed as planned, this would be a different conversation. But the fumble was definitely an example of "not getting it done."

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's a matter of perception, and yes, results matter. You do have a point. Had that play been executed as planned, this would be a different conversation. But the fumble was definitely an example of "not getting it done."

The fumble yes and at least one of the sacks iirc. But for my $$ Allen had enough big/timely plays in the 4th quarter and overtime (along with very little help outside the defense) to make the statement 'he didn't get it done' pretty meaningless imo

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's a matter of perception, and yes, results matter. You do have a point. Had that play been executed as planned, this would be a different conversation. But the fumble was definitely an example of "not getting it done."

 

It was. 

On the other hand - we do want him to not take off running but to extend the play and wait for passing routes to develop.  Either or Not Both.  He had 3 blockers on his L to 1 defender.  He thought he could wait.  If he took off like a runaway freight train right away, he might have gotten the first down.  Or, he might have been tackled short and then we'd be circling Beasley on the all-22 and saying "Look, look, he was open!  Allen should have waited a second and thrown!"  Did Allen screw up, sure 1) by stepping too far forward of the area where Dawkins had good leverage to block for him 2) by not keeping both hands on the ball while he hesitated

 

Edit: this is what I think Allen was looking at, and if he'd pulled the trigger right away or if Dawkins could block Mercilus, I think Beasley gets the 1st.  Is Allen worried about the defender behind Beasley, throwing without time to set?

I think it's fair to say that if any one of 3-4 plays had had a different outcome, we might well see the game differently.

 

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The fumble yes and at least one of the sacks iirc. But for my $$ Allen had enough big/timely plays in the 4th quarter and overtime (along with very little help outside the defense) to make the statement 'he didn't get it done' pretty meaningless imo

 

Hee.  Which one?

 

Hint: he's charged with 3 sacks, but really had 4. 

One was midway in the 3rd, on 3 and 8, when the Bills were ahead.  We got a FG.

One was the sack/fumble - can't double-count that.

 

The other two were the intentional grounding call on 3rd and 13 with 2 minutes left in the 4th, and the next play, the decision to go for it on 4th and 27.

 

The envelope please?  Which one? (I probably sound snarky.  But I genuinely am curious how you see it)

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It was. 

On the other hand - we do want him to not take off running but to extend the play and wait for passing routes to develop.  Either or Not Both.  He had 3 blockers on his L to 1 defender.  He thought he could wait.  If he took off like a runaway freight train right away, he might have gotten the first down.  Or, he might have been tackled short and then we'd be circling Beasley on the all-22 and saying "Look, look, he was open!  Allen should have waited a second and thrown!"  Did Allen screw up, sure 1) by stepping too far forward of the area where Dawkins had good leverage to block for him 2) by not keeping both hands on the ball while he hesitated

I think it's fair to say that if any one of 3-4 plays had had a different outcome, we might well see the game differently.

 

Hee.  Which one?

 

Hint: he's charged with 3, but really had 4.  One was midway in the 3rd, on 3 and 8, when the Bills were ahead.  We got a FG.

One was the sack/fumble - can't double-count that.

 

The other two were the intentional grounding call on 3rd and 13 with 2 minutes left in the 4th, and the next play, the decision to go for it on 4th and 27.

 

The envelope please?

I think it was the third and 8. If that's the one that Watt picked up that convinced Booger that the tide had turned lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it was the third and 8. If that's the one that Watt picked up that convinced Booger that the tide had turned lol

 

Yeah, Watt got him.  Just re-watched - not sure I can blame Allen so much for that, myself.  Looks like Allen audibled and reset the protections because the Texans showed blitz then dropped guys into coverage.  Looks like they correctly diagnosed that the first read was Knox and took him away.  There were enough hats and Ford knew who he had, Watt just beat him.  He didn't put Ford on his ass, but neither did Ford slow Watt enough to hand him some lube as he went by.  Allen had a throw to Beasley, but Ford was beat clean and Allen had Watt in his ear just after Beasley turned. 

 

It certainly wasn't that there wasn't an available RT assigned to block Watt, or that Allen was standing in the pocket doodling.  He could have made a quicker progression and decision, but that was kind of the story of his year.  He should have had more time.  As Bobby Johnson was quoted, " You’re an NFL offensive lineman. Your job is to block. Your job is not to catch anything, it’s not to run the ball. Your job is to block.  At some point in time you’re going to have to block a really good player in this league. When you’re asked to do it, you need to do it.”

[transplantbillsfan]

Great post @Hapless Bills Fan... I read the article, too and had a lot of similar takeaways.

 

One thing I thought was important that he also pointed to regarding the blitz is a pass in one of the very games Allen struggled most in: the Ravens game.

 

I think it's a significant point to make that on Allen's very last play in that game, the Ravens blitzed and Allen made the correct read and threw a helluva pass. If John Brown doesn't run such a lazy route, Buffalo ties the game and who knows what happens in OT?

 

Which leads into the last excerpt you quote from the article at the end.

 

There is absolutely no reason to think Allen has peaked or that he can't improve significantly on all of his flaws this offseason. The kid is seriously just a workaholic and it's the result of his upbringing (I watched another video regarding his childhood to college background last night... I feel like some of this stuff should be required viewing for certain posters.), so assuming he's plateaued despite the hard work he's almost surely ALREADY putting in this offseason is just plain silly.

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Just re: Texans and blitz pickup- the line was totally out of sorts that game. And I don't believe it's a coincidence a higher% of blitzes came through and disrupted QB timing/effectiveness once Gore's early season minutes started going Singletary's way.

 

Reports were that Singletary was working with Gore a week or 2 ago.

 

Hope they're working hard specifically on pass blocking.

9 hours ago, K-9 said:

Regarding improvement in processing the blitz, the same goes for his receivers. There were a number of times when Allen correctly read the proper route adjustment for the look presented only to see his receiver miss the hot read and Allen had to come off that route and go to another option which impacted the timing involved. 

 

Very interesting.

 

Do you have any specific examples?

 

I don't doubt you at all, I just think I lack the football knowledge you might have in noticing these things happen.

 

Hopefully a 2nd year with mostly the same offense helps all this.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The Bills were a bad blindside blocking call away from kicking the game winning FG...if that had happened would you still be saying he didn't 'get it done'?

 

Or how about the QB sweep to the right where if any one of 3 Bills offensive players (Knox was one... can't remember the other 2) blocks the single Texans defender that was there Josh gets 20+ yards (or scores) and Hauschka kicks a gimme FG FTW?

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Or how about the QB sweep to the right where if any one of 3 Bills offensive players (Knox was one... can't remember the other 2) blocks the single Texans defender that was there Josh gets 20+ yards (or scores) and Hauschka kicks a gimme FG FTW?

Or if the refs rule the second half kickoff correctly. Or if our wideouts don't drop a ton of balls. Or if Brown doesn't forget to stay inbounds, twice. There was a lot that happened during that game that could have easily gone one way or the other, so I think using the end result as proof that Allen 'didn't get it done' is a shaky conclusion at best

[Nihilarian]

I get that everyone wants to put the QB under a microscope to watch every bad play he made...Instead lets look at the offensive line.

 

How about we go back and look at that Eagles game to see that the Bills offensive line play wasn't very good and almost every position on that Bills O line was dominated by an Eagle player. I can recall hearing that center Mitch Morse was getting owned in this game. I also see that this years Bills line while improved over that very bad 2018 line it was still graded in the 20's for 2019. 

 

This Bills offensive line still needs upgrades and Dion Dawkins had the best grade. There were far, far to many penalties this season as they were 26th worst in NFL penalties with 146 total flags

 

For some reason in that Eagles game the Bills OC decided that Gore should get most of the initial carries and he played the entire first half while Singletary had no carries, Gore 7 carries 20 yards in the first half. Gore finished the game 9 rushes for 34 yards, 1 TD. 3.8 YPC Singletary finished the game 3 rushes for 19 yards, 1 TD 6.3 YPC. Allen had 12 passes, 7 runs in that first half. 

 

The Bills O line wasn't very good against the Patriots 2x, Ravens and Eagles. Only four rushing TD's for the Bills RB's all season. This needs to change for Allen to keep improving.

[Shaw66]

A lot of good stuff in this thread.  

 

My take is that Allen is still learning.  He definitely improved in his second season, and I think we will see more improvement next season. His reads on pass protections clearly need improvement.   

 

I think he gets rattled late in games when defenses come at him with things he doesn't recognize, and that should improve, too. But I think that the narrative that he and the defense choked in Houston is unfair.  They didn't make the plays they needed to win, but they didn't choke.  They held Houston to a three and out and drove to tie the game, then held them to a three and out in overtime and then drove for an opportunity to win the game.  That's not choking.  That's not finishing.