Tag for Phillips?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Makes sense to me. We have the cap space and nothing else to spend it on (assuming a lot of the big names we covet in FA ultimately wont be available).

Might as well spend it, and if it's only a 1 year deal, we get the cap space back next year. It works like rolling it over, except we get a talented player for a year instead of nothing.

 

I see your viewpoint, but we don't get nothing, we get the cap $$ to roll forward or to go ahead and work on extensions for some of the guys we value. 

 

I assume they've had their end of year convos with Phillips as with others "this is what you do great, this is what we want you to work on".  Then they "right-sized" Star.  I don't think it goes too smoothly if you ask one guy to take a paycut and then throw money at the guy standing next to him.  Isn't it bound to make him less receptive to "this is what we want you to work on?"  And, taking the long view, if you don't want to pay that much to BigJ on an ongoing basis, wouldn't it make sense to bring in someone you can develop and keep around?

 

IDK, I guess it all hinges on whether they see him as an irreplaceable piece or not, and the fact that he's only playing 50% of the snaps says to me, Not.

 

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

As long as the spend doesnt hinder us form signing other players for this year, then we might as well.

 

You could be right, but I don't think Beane sees it that way..

 

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The $15M Franchise Tag number is the average of the highest paid DTs.

NONE of our DTs are making even close to that. We do not have high paid DTs.

 

Can I poke my nose in here and say I think you're both a bit right?  The tag is what, the 5 highest paid guys by AAV?  So we have no one in that group.

But Star Lotulelei is #7, and Ed Oliver is #13 on AAV, on total contract #4 and #10.

 

So we do have two very highly paid DTs.  Overall, we're not cheaping it in that position group.

 

I think we're willing to give Jordan Phillips a nice bump and some nice guarantees - but we want to slot him in between Star and Ed. 

 

The guys who make the biggest $$ are the ones who are the keystones of their line, and who play >70-80% of the snaps - the way Dareus and Mario Williams did in 2014 when the Bills had the #4 D. 

 

That's just not how McD and Frazier handle the DL, or at least it hasn't been.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I see your viewpoint, but we don't get nothing, we get the cap $$ to roll forward or to go ahead and work on extensions for some of the guys we value. 

 

I assume they've had their end of year convos with Phillips as with others "this is what you do great, this is what we want you to work on".  Then they "right-sized" Star.  I don't think it goes too smoothly if you ask one guy to take a paycut and then throw money at the guy standing next to him.  Isn't it bound to make him less receptive to "this is what we want you to work on?"  And, taking the long view, if you don't want to pay that much to BigJ on an ongoing basis, wouldn't it make sense to bring in someone you can develop and keep around?

 

IDK, I guess it all hinges on whether they see him as an irreplaceable piece or not, and the fact that he's only playing 50% of the snaps says to me, Not.

 

 

 

That money "rolls over" either way if it is a 1-year Franchise Tag deal. As has been shown numerous times here, we have the money to spend on Phillips AND sign anyone and everyone else we want, extensions included.

 

As far as guys standing next to each other getting paid or not, they are professionals, they know this is a business. Star is still making $5M-8M, he doesnt need to worry about anyone else. And most of them don't. Especially if he's such a "Process" guy.

 

As far as long view, I personally and fine with signing JP to a long term deal. I was just keeping my points within the framework of the Franchise Tag discussion.

 

All our DL play on rotation, that isnt a reason to not sign any to big contracts. IMO, DL and OL is where we should be spending. Speaking of which, I'm working on a post that details exactly that... stay tuned...

[Dopey]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Who is Joe DiBiase of WGR and what credence does he have?

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/jordan-phillips-is-perfect-for-the-franchise-tag
 

"After thinking about the idea more and more, it actually makes sense. A lot of sense.  In fact, the Bills would probably be smart to franchise tag Phillips, which would cost them $15.5 million on the cap.

 

In no way am I saying that I think Phillips is a $15.5 million player. He had 9.5 sacks last season, yes. He's a better all around defensive tackle than Star Lotulelei, yes. However, Phillips struggled in run defense this past season. He's a great penetrator up the middle, but there's a reason he only received a grade of 53.6 from Pro Football Focus and didn't crack their top-100 free agents for this offseason.

The idea of franchise tagging Phillips has nothing to do with the $15.5 million. It has everything to do with it only being for one year. The worst thing I believe the Bills could do is sign Phillips to a multi-year extension. By 2021, the Bills will have to give out new deals to cornerback Tre'Davious White, left tackle Dion Dawkins, linebacker Matt Milano, and even safety Jordan Poyer if they want to keep him around. A multi-year deal for Phillips would stretch into a time period where the Bills have to pay all those guys, and possibly quarterback Josh Allen and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds too.

Honestly, it would be better for the Bills to pay Phillips $15.5 million for this season, rather than a three-year deal worth $24 million. It's more money per-year no doubt, but it doesn't threaten their ability to sign their own in the future.  The Bills will likely want to do some other things this offseason, potentially big things. They have the third most cap space in the NFL, going into the spring at just under $82 million in space. Are they really going to use all of that? Even if Beane hadn't been careful managing the cap over the last few years, I'd tell you they're not going to find $82 million worth of free agents and draft picks to come here in one offseason. 

 

Why not use cap space on Phillips that you won't use otherwise? "

 

He's not making a lot of sense to me.

Anyone else?

 

 

 

 

 

Not making much sense for a player that will split time with Oliver. I'd rather use that $ somewhere else. $8-10 on a  WR or LB maybe?  

[DrDawkinstein]

14 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Not making much sense for a player that will split time with Oliver. I'd rather use that $ somewhere else. $8-10 on a  WR or LB maybe?  

 

We have $80M-90M to spend. We can sign JP, a WR, and a LB and still have $60M left over for extensions and other guys.

[That's No Moon]

On 2/12/2020 at 2:55 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Add this to the long list of "Easier Said by Fans than Actually Done"

That also only works if he doesn't sign the tag.

[Dopey]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We have $80M-90M to spend. We can sign JP, a WR, and a LB and still have $60M left over for extensions and other guys.

I get that, but he's going to split time with Oliver. That's a lot of $ for a part time player, even for 1 yr. We can make this a better/deeper team with that $15M. 

[BringBackOrton]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That would be my fault for the cut-n-paste method I used, not his

 

 

How so?

 

What I read him saying is we will need cap space in 3 years, so instead of saving cap to roll over, we should spend it on a guy he flat-out states is not a $15.5M player.

 

If the guy is not a $15.5M player, why tag him for that?  If he's a worthwhile player and we want to keep him, and he'd be willing to sign for $24M/3 years, why not do that instead?  A deal can be structured in any kind of a way to front-load it and clear cap in the latter years.

 

It seems like he's arguing to treat the cap like it's "Brewster's Millions" this season, giving it away on a player who he says is not worth that much because we won't spend it all - because in future years we'll need cap.  But in that case why not roll over cap?

His argument is that losing Phillips for nothing is bad and you’ll have to pay something to replace him (at almost a guaranteed lower production). Giving Phillips a multiple year deal that will beat the market, (aka probably not some team friendly out in 2 year deal) is also bad. Controlling Phillips for 1 year, not letting him test the market, may be preferable even with a higher 1 year pricetag.

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I get that, but he's going to split time with Oliver. That's a lot of $ for a part time player, even for 1 yr. We can make this a better/deeper team with that $15M. 

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

 

If we were in a different cap situation, I'd agree with you. The money could be better spent elsewhere. But we have a ton of cash to spend this year. Whether it's a big, 1-year Franchise Tag deal, or a more team-friendly long term deal. We have the ability to make that deal and still have money.

 

We have our QB on a rookie deal. We control Tre's money for 2 more years. Now is the time to make such splurges in order to "win now" while that window is open.

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Dopey]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

I do agree with building the trenches. He's not a star to me, though. If I thought he was, I would be for it. Even splitting time. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Dopey said:

I do agree with building the trenches. He's not a star to me, though. If I thought he was, I would be for it. Even splitting time. 

 

Regardless of whether we think he's a star or not, who is going to replace him that is as good?

 

Right now we just have Ed in that 3-tech spot. Star, Harry, VTaylor, and Liuget are all 1-tech.

 

Don't focus on the $ amount when we have so much to spend. Especially if we're talking 1-year Franchise Tag deal where we get that cap space back next year anyways.

[Dopey]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Regardless of whether we think he's a star or not, who is going to replace him that is as good?

 

Right now we just have Ed in that 3-tech spot. Star, Harry, VTaylor, and Liuget are all 1-tech.

 

Don't focus on the $ amount when we have so much to spend. Especially if we're talking 1-year Franchise Tag deal where we get that cap space back next year anyways.

Good question. I don't have an answer. I won't be pissed if they franchise him, but would prefer something else for that amount of $. Unless we feel we are SB ready.

[letsgoteam]

Plus keep in mind that there is no cap roll over for next year. (Right? Because of the CBA ending)

 

If that is the case, spend away (in a constructive, conscience manner). Leave no dollar unspent.

Edited February 14, 2020 by letsgoteam

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Makes sense to me. We have the cap space and nothing else to spend it on (assuming a lot of the big names we covet in FA ultimately wont be available).

 

Might as well spend it, and if it's only a 1 year deal, we get the cap space back next year. It works like rolling it over, except we get a talented player for a year instead of nothing.

 

As long as the spend doesnt hinder us form signing other players for this year, then we might as well.

 

The $15M Franchise Tag number is the average of the highest paid DTs.

 

NONE of our DTs are making even close to that. We do not have high paid DTs.

 

As a positional group last year, the Bills spent the most money in the NFL on DT's at over $21 million and 10.5% of the cap.

 

Now you want them to give Phillips a franchise tag of $15.5 million and increase it to almost $30 million and take up 14.8% of the cap?  

 

You can't be serious.

[CorkScrewHill]

Something that jut occurred to me as I was looking at the patriots draft picks .. if we can sign him to a reasonable deal great .. but if the price gets too high .. we will end up with a nice compensatory draft pick. The smart teams have been taking advantage of this system for years. Let a guy walk for high money .. don't pay the money and get a draft pick on a cheap contract for  nothing. The not so smart teams overpay and get into cap hell .. looking at you Rams. let's be a smart team.

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

As a positional group last year, the Bills spent the most money in the NFL on DT's at over $21 million and 10.5% of the cap.

 

Now you want them to give Phillips a franchise tag of $15.5 million and increase it to almost $30 million and take up 14.8% of the cap?  

 

You can't be serious.

 

Very serious. Where better to spend the money than the trenches?

 

IMO, it should be 25% of cap on OL and 25% of cap on DL as a starting point. Especially when you have a QB on a rookie deal. And doubly so when you have so many other starters on rookie deals as well.

 

The 2020 Cap is $201.2M. That gives us $50M per Line to work with.

 

According to the Spotrac Breakdown for our Positional spends we're currently at:

Offensive Line: 13.42%

Defensive Line: 15.83%

 

While we need to add to OL, we don't have any major OL contracts to hand out, and could even get away with sliding Ford to Guard and keeping Nsekhe at RT. But we still have room there either way.

 

Our DEs are fairly "set" if they wanted to roll with Murhpy. Or cut him to make up some cap room and go try to get Ngakoue.

 

That still gives us plenty of room to spend at DT in 2020 or beyond. AND sign Ngakoue or the equivalent.

 

AND still have $50M left over for UFAs to add top talent and depth to the team. A WR, TE, and OLB all at $10M each gives us $20M left over. That's still more than some teams have in TOTAL cap space to start the offseason.

 

Or mix and match some extensions in there as well. However you want to move all that money around. It's all possible.

 

We are in a very unique cap situation. Beane has set us up to make moves exactly like I'm talking about. He's not just hoarding gold like a dragon.

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

 

If we were in a different cap situation, I'd agree with you. The money could be better spent elsewhere. But we have a ton of cash to spend this year. Whether it's a big, 1-year Franchise Tag deal, or a more team-friendly long term deal. We have the ability to make that deal and still have money.

 

We have our QB on a rookie deal. We control Tre's money for 2 more years. Now is the time to make such splurges in order to "win now" while that window is open.

 

Here you go-

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Here you go-

 

 

Another Houston guy to pair with Ed. I like it.

We'll still be spending $15.5M+/year on another "rotational" DT like a lot of fans here are opposed to.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Another Houston guy to pair with Ed. I like it.

We'll still be spending $15.5M+/year on another "rotational" DT like a lot of fans here are opposed to.

He's a legit superstar imo. I thought he should have been SB MVP and if KC has to cut him loose (and it looks like they might) he would be the guy I imagine McDermott/Beane are in on. 

 

You can put him on the field w/Lotulelei or another 1tech in base but the great thing about having him and Oliver is they're both multiple and it allows for a ton of combinations...Jones can get it done at DT as well. For me he is the home run FA signing

[BuffaloRebound]

$15m is definitely steep for Phillips, but it’s not my money and there’s no way we won’t be well under the cap.  If he and Shaq truly want to stay, I’d do what I could to keep them.  I’d rather over-pay my own guys than free agents.  But it’s not smart to let good players go with no guarantees you’ll be able to replace them in free agency especially considering our current cap situation. 

[without a drought]

$15.5 mil seems like a lot for a rotational player who has had 1 good season in his 5 year career. Maybe he will repeat the performance, but the odds aren't exactly in his favor.