Would you give our 2020 1st rd pick to the Lions for Kenny Golliday?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, njbuff said:

This is a WR rich draft.

 

Why give up draft choices when you can draft 2-4 WR's in this draft alone and let them develop with Allen?

 

Give up a 1st round pick AND pay Golliday? Beyond stupid.

 

Welllllllllll......I haven't tabulated stuff and put it all together.  But I've had a look at the recent WR drafts from 2013 to 2017 (giving players 2 yrs to develop).

Currently the best receiver from that draft class (by pro-football-reference career average value)  taken in the first 2 rounds is something like:

2017 6th WR drafted (pick 62) - Juju Smith Schuster

2016 6th WR drafted (pick 47) - Mike Thomas

2015 1st WR drafted (#4), 3rd WR drafted (#14) - Amari Cooper, Davante Parker

2014  - 4th WR  - Brandin Cooks, 3rd WR - Beckham Jr - 2nd WR - Mike Evans, 12th WR drafted - Jarvis Landry 9th WR drafted - Davante Adams #1 WR drafted - Sammy Watkins

2013 - #2 WR drafted (pick 27) - DeAndre Hopkins #5 Wr drafted (41) - Robert Woods

 

Golladay isn't on this list because he was drafted in the 3rd round.

 

Now one can debate PFR's Career Average Value or the specific ordering - but I think the point stands that professional NFL talent scouts on many teams whiff on picking the best WR talent in the draft quite a lot. 

 

So if one has the chance to acquire a proven strong talent at WR, that might be the way to go even if you gotta give up a pick and pay him.

 

But as previously noted, AFAIK the Lions have 0 motivation to move on from Golladay this season and every motivation to keep him.

         

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Welllllllllll......I haven't tabulated stuff and put it all together.  But I've had a look at the recent WR drafts from 2013 to 2017 (giving players 2 yrs to develop).

Currently the best receiver from that draft class (by pro-football-reference career average value)  taken in the first 2 rounds is something like:

2017 6th WR drafted (pick 62) - Juju Smith Schuster

2016 6th WR drafted (pick 47) - Mike Williams

2015 1st WR drafted (#4), 3rd WR drafted (#14) - Amari Cooper, Davante Parker

2014  - 4th WR  - Brandin Cooks, 3rd WR - Beckham Jr - 2nd WR - Mike Evans, 12th WR drafted - Jarvis Landry 9th WR drafted - Davante Adams #1 WR drafted - Sammy Watkins

2013 - #2 WR drafted (pick 27) - DeAndre Hopkins #5 Wr drafted (41) - Robert Woods

 

Golladay isn't on this list because he was drafted in the 3rd round.

 

Now one can debate PFR's Career Average Value or the specific ordering - but I think the point stands that professional NFL talent scouts on many teams whiff on picking the best WR talent in the draft quite a lot. 

 

So if one has the chance to acquire a proven strong talent at WR, that might be the way to go even if you gotta give up a pick and pay him.

 

But as previously noted, AFAIK the Lions have 0 motivation to move on from Golladay this season and every motivation to keep him.

         

IIRC Mike Williams and JJSS were 2017 draft class, your 2016 guy would be Michael Thomas

[Golden Goat]

If Detroit's dealing a WR, I'm guessing it's Marvin Jones Jr., who's 29 and in the last year of his contract.

[nato7412]

4 minutes ago, Golden Goat said:

If Detroit's dealing a WR, I'm guessing it's Marvin Jones Jr., who's 29 and in the last year of his contract.

This is exactly what I was thinking. Send a 3rd and a 5th for him. Draft BPA in 1st and WR in 2nd. Extend Jones for 2 years if he has a good year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

IIRC Mike Williams and JJSS were 2017 draft class, your 2016 guy would be Michael Thomas

 

You are correct

 

Point stands though

[Turk71]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Golliday is better than anyone in this draft and it’s not even close.  He’s the speed, big bodied guy everyone says we need 

Golladay is good but not a speed guy by any means, big bodied yes, speedy no. In fact his 4.5 40 was 20th in his combine wr class and his 3 cone was 26th.

[Turk71]

41 minutes ago, nato7412 said:

This is exactly what I was thinking. Send a 3rd and a 5th for him. Draft BPA in 1st and WR in 2nd. Extend Jones for 2 years if he has a good year.

A 3rd and a 5th for 30 yr old Marvin Jones? ?

[SoTier]

 

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

Golliday is better than anyone in this draft and it’s not even close.  He’s the speed, big bodied guy everyone says we need 

 

Certainly better than anybody the Bills would pick up with the 22nd pick.

 

2 hours ago, elijah said:

Edmunds, Milano, Dawkins, Josh, Tre, Poyer, etc. are all guys that are going to need to get paid soon. Adding Golladay to the list doesn’t help, he expires after this season. 

 

The cap space is nice right now but it doesn’t last forever.  We have a young core with most of our important players on their rookie contracts, these rookie contracts don’t last forever.  Give me a number one who we have cost controlled for 4 years, not a number one with one year left and a $15M+ contract coming. 

2 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

But draft also doesn't guarantee Pro level success. Golliday has already proven he can play in the league at a high level, the players in the draft have not.

 

As for your list in the other post, only Tre is in line for a Big deal soon, the rest haven't done anything yet to deserve deals that could break the bank, even Josh hasn't hit that level yet. 

 

Exactly right about paying people.  White is the only one that will be due big $$$ soon.  Dawkins and Milano are in need of new deals but not due big pay days.  They're decent players, but not enough above average to warrant paying them more than the average starter money at their positions.  If somebody wanted to offer one or both big $$$ then maybe the Bills should let them leave rather than  pass on the opportunity to bring in a WR like Golliday simply to keep both, and if it came down to picking one of them, I'd sure keep Dawkins rather than Milano simply because starting OTs, even average ones, are harder to come by than starting LBs.  Poyer is due a decent pay day but it shouldn't break the bank. Allen and  Edmunds have 3 more years on their rookie deals, and they both have lots of room to improve before they start thinking big $$$.

 

More importantly, the Bills absolutely need to determine what they have in Josh Allen ASAP because the salaries for top QBs are over $30 million now and racing upward.  For decent starters, it's $15-$20 million.  For quality veteran backups it's $5-$10.   All QBs need protection and targets, and young QBs especially are helped by having a strong running game.  The Bills OL is adequate but could be better.  Once Allen gets past Beasley, Brown, and Singletary, though, he doesn't have good enough receivers or runners to help him.  Are Allen's mediocre passing numbers primarily because of his own shortcomings or primarily because too often the lack of first rate offensive talent limits what kind of plays the Bills can run and how much success any QB would have?  Maybe Dawson Knox can develop into a good pass catching TE, but adding a WR of Golliday's caliber would enable the Bills to get a much clearer picture of Allen's worth.  

 

What I know the Bills can't afford is to pay Allen $30+ million a year when his performance doesn't justify that kind of money because they're still waiting for him to "get it" because he still doesn't have good protection, good targets, and a good running game.  Surrounding Allen with plenty of talent eliminates the excuses that we've heard for Allen's play for two seasons now (and which, in many cases, were very valid).   So, if the Bills could swing a trade for Golliday, especially if they agreed to a new deal in advance, I'd be a happy camper.

 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by SoTier

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

I would, the guy could be the offensive game changer that the Bills are looking for. He’s entering his last year of his rookie contract and the Lions will have to make a decision on him sooner or later. Being a Belichick disciple I would think that Patricia isn’t looking to lock up a ton of money on a WR. Pay him now and they might just be willing to give him up. The guy has been in the league and is ready to ball.

Yes

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Why are you worried about things 3-4 years down the road? 

 

Whats more important a Super Bowl victory or cap space?

 

Seriously, does any Chiefs fan lament that they paid Sammy Watkins $16 million and he's their WR3?

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

"Trading draft picks for guys that are due to be paid is an excellent way to build a consistent winner."

 

-Dan Snyder

 

One trade for one player doesn't make it a policy

 

-- me

[buffalostu2]

Golliday has proven he can play in the NFL (under a different system though).  However just like rookies haven't proven they can play in the NFL yet, Golliday has not proven he will play hungry after a large contract.   

 

There seems to be less risk in drafting a receiver in the first round.  Control, financial flexibility, and character fit are all benefits to looking to the draft.   Especially with this year's pool.

 

There are also other options out there for a #1b WR like Breshad Perriman who is a FA id you are not interested in using our #1 pick on a WR..

 

       

 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by buffalostu2

[nucci]

2 hours ago, elijah said:

Edmunds, Milano, Dawkins, Josh, Tre, Poyer, etc. are all guys that are going to need to get paid soon. Adding Golladay to the list doesn’t help, he expires after this season. 

 

The cap space is nice right now but it doesn’t last forever.  We have a young core with most of our important players on their rookie contracts, these rookie contracts don’t last forever.  Give me a number one who we have cost controlled for 4 years, not a number one with one year left and a $15M+ contract coming. 

do you think all those guys will be re-signed? Beane said you can't sign everyone....I think Milano and Poyer do not get re-signed. Golladay is a great WR...not sure what I would give up but I would try if he's available

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

He’s more known. Not necessarily better... he was a third round pick himself, which kinda proves the craziness of WR drafting.

 

I wouldn’t trade a 1st straight up as this is such a good class. Maybe a 1 for him and a 3rd. 

 

not to mention,  I think he still played well after Stafford was injured.  He'd be great for Allen with his ability to grab semi-inaccurate thrown balls.  

[nucci]

2 hours ago, Utah John said:

The Bills are building a team that can win consistently for years to come, not throwing everything in for a single year that might or might not work out, only to watch the team dissolve.

trading for Golladay wouldn't be throwing everything in for a single year. Giving up a 1st round pick and a big contract won't destroy the Bills.....not sure what I would give up for him but he's a great player and better than anyone we could draft

[KOKBILLS]

I would not...?

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, njbuff said:

This is a WR rich draft.

 

Why give up draft choices when you can draft 2-4 WR's in this draft alone and let them develop with Allen?

 

Give up a 1st round pick AND pay Golliday? Beyond stupid.

Because Golliday is a proven commodity while rookie WR's are a crapshoot.  Not taking that deal would beyond stupid.

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

I would, the guy could be the offensive game changer that the Bills are looking for. He’s entering his last year of his rookie contract and the Lions will have to make a decision on him sooner or later. Being a Belichick disciple I would think that Patricia isn’t looking to lock up a ton of money on a WR. Pay him now and they might just be willing to give him up. The guy has been in the league and is ready to ball.

Absolutely

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, End The Drought said:

We need to stop with these threads

Why? It is a reasonable theoretical question and a good thread so far.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

At first I was going to say trade a number 1 for a proven pass rusher.  But after further consideration I don't think that is the right move.  The money difference is too much between a rookie deal and a star player on their second contract.  Even if the first rounder is only a capable player you get your money's worth.  Adding that a first round DE can contribute immediately I think the best route is DE or Edge in the first round.  

Now if you can get a star WR with a second round pick, then I'd be fine with that even if I had to shell out the dollars. WR's take longer to make an impact and the Bills need a guy that can contribute from day one.  

[njbuff]

43 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Because Golliday is a proven commodity while rookie WR's are a crapshoot.  Not taking that deal would beyond stupid.

 

Is Golliday's impact worth giving up a high draft choice and him getting a huge payday?

 

The answer is no.