Star Lotulelei takes a pay cut

[schoolhouserock]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Saying they are .500 and that certain pretty indicative metrics........like a huge negative point differential and a 30th ranked offense over 3 years.........suggest they are lucky to be .500............may disappoint you but it's there.

 

Yes as you said we'd be disappointed to know that the new regime took over a team and proceeded to be .500 over the next 3 seasons coming off two regimes that played nearly the same .500 level football.    

 

No I would not have been surprised by a 9-7 and 10-6 season over the next 3 years because the team they inherited was talented enough to have been in the playoffs in any of the prior 5 seasons going back to the last year of Chan Gailey.   

 

I mean if you are upset by the thought of .500 you are then surprised to be 9-7, 6-10 and 10-6?   That's a very short bridge to cross from where they were coming from.

 

These "we never expected to make the playoffs anytime soon" retro-active takes come from a place that surely was not TBD.

 

What it comes down to is that we want to PERCEIVE that something special is happening..........in reality it's been a very slow 7 year climb from Marrone's .500 teams to McD's "wildcard contention" level.  

 

I’m cool with slow as long as it’s sustained.

[teef]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Saying they are .500 and that certain pretty indicative metrics........like a huge negative point differential and a 30th ranked offense over 3 years.........suggest they are lucky to be .500............may disappoint you but it's there.

 

Yes as you said we'd be disappointed to know that the new regime took over a team and proceeded to be .500 over the next 3 seasons coming off two regimes that played nearly the same .500 level football.    

 

No I would not have been surprised by a 9-7 and 10-6 season over the next 3 years because the team they inherited was talented enough to have been in the playoffs in any of the prior 5 seasons going back to the last year of Chan Gailey.   

 

I mean if you are upset by the thought of .500 you are then surprised to be 9-7, 6-10 and 10-6?   That's a very short bridge to cross from where they were coming from.

 

These "we never expected to make the playoffs anytime soon" retro-active takes come from a place that surely was not TBD.

 

What it comes down to is that we want to PERCEIVE that something special is happening..........in reality it's been a very slow 7 year climb from Marrone's .500 teams to McD's "wildcard contention" level.  

 

we keep hearing about how the talent was enough, but the playoffs never seemed to happen.  you can down play the playoff appearances if you like, but to me they're a huge positive.  we're PERCEIVING that something special is happening because the team seems to be on an upward trend.  you're correct in that it may actually fall apart, and you're absolutely correct that a lot of improvements need to be made, but presents a .500 record to reflect that this staff's effort/results are average isn't accurate to me.  some people lean towards the constant negative, which is their choice.  

Just now, schoolhouserock said:

I’m cool with slow as long as it’s sustained.

so am i.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, teef said:

we keep hearing about how the talent was enough, but the playoffs never seemed to happen.  you can down play the playoff appearances if you like, but to me they're a huge positive.  we're PERCEIVING that something special is happening because the team seems to be on an upward trend.  you're correct in that it may actually fall apart, and you're absolutely correct that a lot of improvements need to be made, but presents a .500 record to reflect that this staff's effort/results are average isn't accurate to me.  some people lean towards the constant negative, which is their choice.  

I would have taken more issue w/ 'wildcard contention level' tbh

 

We had wildcard wrapped up, we were contending for the division and a first round bye this season whether they'll admit it or not

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, GG said:

 

That's your position now, but wasn't at the time or years after that offseason.  You always framed it as a big mistake & miss on the Bills part.

 

 

The Star signing was an admission of a mistake thinking the defense wouldn't miss Dareus in the middle.  That move was 100% "process" because it was clear that Dareus was not going to be onboard with what McD was building.  So, Beane plucked the best available Panther to help stabilize the D.   

 

Looking at this in retrospect, Bills got more overall value from Star in his two years for $26 million than they have from Murphy for $15 million, although both underperformed.

 

 

 

The highlighted is a total fabrication.

 

I hadn't mentioned Harris since he re-signed with the Jets.........the Bills didn't have the option of signing him........he signed BEFORE UFA Gerry........he was NOT available.

 

I'll help you out..........the transaction I think you are talking about was the Bills not trading for Brandon Marshall.     I was all in on trading for him and hated the Percy Harvin signing.

 

Marshall went on to have a 1500 yard 14 TD season with the Jets...........he fell off after that..........probably wasn't worth the long term contract but sure as hell beat paying Percy Harvin anything.

 

And yes the Star signing was an admission of a mistake and they threw good money at bad to fix it.     He didn't re-store the run defense to what it was prior to Dareus trade.   In fact when teams want to run on the Bills the Bills still struggle to defense it.    The WC game in Houston even turned on the Texans deciding to run the ball up the middle.   It's still the achilles heel of an otherwise excellent defense.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

I’m cool with slow as long as it’s sustained.

 

 

In the past 20 years the Peyton Manning Colts are the ONLY organization that has rose to any sustained success from bottoming out............the easiest way to greatness is from a start at .500 type level.  

 

Bills fans have often lamented mediocrity as a reason for not being able to take the next step but that's always been BS.

 

The Bills are in a perfect position to take the next step...........but contrary to the retro-active narrative they actually were there under Marrone and Ryan as well...................you gotta' make the right moves to take the next step but it's there for the taking.

Edited February 12, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Only cause this went over and over during reg season, but there is a fundamental lack of understanding about how the interior dline operates in McD's scheme

 

Lotulelei does a ton of stuff that not only doesn't show up on stat sheet but gets missed by almost every casual fan...shuffle and bridge to engage and free up another DT, downblock and open gap for LB control, lines up offset to play immediate double for twists/stunts...if the dline is the engine he's like the serpentine belt. Everything kind of rotates in conjunction w his work. Oliver is going to be the crankshaft that can do it all but he needs more experience. Phillips is like a turbo, super fun but nonessential.

 

Er....Jordan Phillips or Harrison Phillips?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Er....Jordan Phillips or Harrison Phillips?

Jordan Phillips

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Jordan Phillips

 

You relieve my mind of the need to impugn your judgement in this instance.

Or to put it as Weird Al  "Or else, my brother, I might have to get medieval on your heinie"

[Nick the Greek]

I hate fully guaranteed contracts.

 

see Eric Woods last contract before he was forced to retire. We got burned.. bad. 

[teef]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I would have taken more issue w/ 'wildcard contention level' tbh

 

We had wildcard wrapped up, we were contending for the division and a first round bye this season whether they'll admit it or not

They were on the cusp for sure. Get getting to the playoffs this year was a mental win for me. Who knew if Josh was going to improve, who knew if they would bring in enough offensive talent to improve, etc. 

 

It’s not enough for the long term, but I’m satisfied with where the bills are after 3 years. 

[BADOLBILZ]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I would have taken more issue w/ 'wildcard contention level' tbh

 

We had wildcard wrapped up, we were contending for the division and a first round bye this season whether they'll admit it or not

 

 

When the schedule got tough the Bills played like a "wildcard contender".

 

They had their chance to be more than that but they rode the easiest schedule the team has seen in 40 years to a 5th seed.

 

And were once again SWEPT by the division champion Patriots.

 

McDermott is 0-6 versus Belichick...........and some of those losses over that time were when the Pats were playing their worst football of the season...........so until you start winning some games against the division leader you aren't really a division contender...........and once you get there you gotta' start winning some meaningful games against other division winners and top seeds or you aren't a SB contender. 

 

As Bill Parcells said after turning the 1-15 Dolphins into a division winner the next season.........the climb from bad to decent is a lot easier than the next level up.

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

When the schedule got tough the Bills played like a "wildcard contender".

 

They had their chance to be more than that but they rode the easiest schedule the team has seen in 40 years to a 5th seed.

 

And were once again SWEPT by the division champion Patriots.

 

McDermott is 0-6 versus Belichick...........and some of those losses over that time were when the Pats were playing their worst football of the season...........so until you start winning some games against the division leader you aren't really a division contender...........and once you get there you gotta' start winning some meaningful games against other division winners and top seeds you aren't a SB contender. 

 

As Bill Parcells said after turning the 1-15 Dolphins into a division winner the next season.........the climb from bad to decent is a lot easier than the next level up.

 

Agree w the bolded and the point re: easy schedule

 

However- I don't agree they played the tough stretch like a wildcard contender. They mopped up the Broncos to start, then went into primetime away vs Dallas and dominated a desperate team at home. That was a legit win. Then lost a close (although Bills clearly second best) home game to the hottest team in the league at the time in the Ravens, but bounced back with maybe the biggest win in the last 5 yrs @Pitt. Finished that stretch by giving the Pats all they could handle at Foxborough and yes, came up short again but I did not see them shrink when things tightened up at all. I thought they looked the part down the stretch. They looked inexperienced to my eyes more than anything, NOT like they didn't belong or couldn't hang w the best

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

When the schedule got tough the Bills played like a "wildcard contender".

 

They had their chance to be more than that but they rode the easiest schedule the team has seen in 40 years to a 5th seed.

 

And were once again SWEPT by the division champion Patriots.

 

McDermott is 0-6 versus Belichick...........and some of those losses over that time were when the Pats were playing their worst football of the season...........so until you start winning some games against the division leader you aren't really a division contender...........and once you get there you gotta' start winning some meaningful games against other division winners and top seeds or you aren't a SB contender. 

 

As Bill Parcells said after turning the 1-15 Dolphins into a division winner the next season.........the climb from bad to decent is a lot easier than the next level up.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap

[billsfan89]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I disagree with your first paragraph, though I think you're right on with the rest, but he really isn't overpaid. He was paid what he was worth to McDermott. He isn't just a run-stopper, it's more complex than that, as I'm sure you know. He's a space eater, and there aren't that many of those guys to go around, so the good ones get paid well, as there are two or three significantly above Star in the top ten. It's a really difficult job that few are able to physically handle. Not every defense needs one, but the ones that do need them badly.

 

Space eater may not be a "premium position," but neither is $10 mill a year a premium salary. Star is tied for 148th highest paid in the league, in terms of average salary, and 129th highest in terms of guarantee. Calling that a premium salary would be ridiculous. The bottom line is simply that this is a position that McDermott needs filled in his defense and needs filled at a pretty high level. He knew Star could fill it at that level, having coached him in Carolina. And if McDermott has showed one thing, it's that he knows how to put together a really good defense with consistency. He needed Star to do that. 

 

As you point out, this is a good deal for both sides, a small pay cut for some guarantees the Bills are willing to live with because they want him here.

 

Saying he is 148th highest paid in the league is highly misleading. When he signed his deal in 2018 he was the 10th highest paid DT in the league and even in 2019 was still the 13th highest paid at his position. I think looking at his standing within his position is the best way to look at things. Star has a function in the system however he doesn't rush the passer and Star is not elite at being a space eater. Don't get me wrong he is good at that role but I don't think he is a Snacks Harrison type space eater. 

 

I don't think he comes even close to being top 20 DT in the league, thus him being paid in or close to the top 10 at his position makes him overpaid. However being overpaid doesn't mean he doesn't have value to the defense. I think this pay cut brings him closer to his true value and I am fine with him at his current salary and he fills a good role effectively. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Saying he is 148th highest paid in the league is highly misleading. When he signed his deal in 2018 he was the 10th highest paid DT in the league and even in 2019 was still the 13th highest paid at his position. I think looking at his standing within his position is the best way to look at things. Star has a function in the system however he doesn't rush the passer and Star is not elite at being a space eater. Don't get me wrong he is good at that role but I don't think he is a Snacks Harrison type space eater. 

 

I don't think he comes even close to being top 20 DT in the league, thus him being paid in or close to the top 10 at his position makes him overpaid. However being overpaid doesn't mean he doesn't have value to the defense. I think this pay cut brings him closer to his true value and I am fine with him at his current salary and he fills a good role effectively. 

 

 

@Thurman#1 is making massive excuses here......there is a CHASM between Star Lotulelei and the best space eaters........he is not even good at the job.

 

Snax is a NT playing head up on the OL in front of him and still routinely makes 70+ tackles per season.............he literally keeps his LB's clean...........and not every team thinks even a guy like Snax is worth the money he gets.

 

Ideally the DT1T in McDefense can make plays in the backfield as well............like Star did as a rookie.    It's not a NT position where the guy just has to hold up blocks for the big MLB to come in and get clean shots on RB's...........a DT1T should be able to tackle a RB.     Harrison Phillips tackles RB's so the Bills at least have that when he returns.

 

[John from Riverside]

34 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

@Thurman#1 is making massive excuses here......there is a CHASM between Star Lotulelei and the best space eaters........he is not even good at the job.

 

Snax is a NT playing head up on the OL in front of him and still routinely makes 70+ tackles per season.............he literally keeps his LB's clean...........and not every team thinks even a guy like Snax is worth the money he gets.

 

Ideally the DT1T in McDefense can make plays in the backfield as well............like Star did as a rookie.    It's not a NT position where the guy just has to hold up blocks for the big MLB to come in and get clean shots on RB's...........a DT1T should be able to tackle a RB.     Harrison Phillips tackles RB's so the Bills at least have that when he returns.

 

His Harrison Phillips available?

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If fans cite some statistic, but it's not particularly relevant or meaningful, does that make it substantive?

 

I don't get the point about "being a .500 team after 3 full seasons of rebuilding".  I mean, technically, we're not...we're just over 0.500 (0.520 to be exact)

The 49'ers on the other hand, have yet to reach 0.500 in 3 years under Shanahan.... they're 0.479 (to be exact)

 

What point are you trying to illustrate with this 0.500 team thing?

 

 

Would you argue economics using recidivism rates?  Or the success of a corporation with unemployment?

 

Neither would you debate the W-L record over a 3 year span for a team when they just played in the SB.  SF showed tremendous improvement.  Buffalo won 1 more game in '19 than they did in '17.  Which team is trending up and which one appears to be plateauing in their rebuild?  

 

I see this as a willful conflation of the topic at hand and, I also realize has strayed far from the original topic.  

[GG]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The highlighted is a total fabrication.

 

I hadn't mentioned Harris since he re-signed with the Jets.........the Bills didn't have the option of signing him........he signed BEFORE UFA Gerry........he was NOT available.

 

I'll help you out..........the transaction I think you are talking about was the Bills not trading for Brandon Marshall.     I was all in on trading for him and hated the Percy Harvin signing.

 

 

 

Of course you hadn't mentioned after he re-signed with the Jets.  Maybe a weather-wane is more correct?  And then this twist.

 

If you don't want to hit the links, here are the quotes:

 

Quote

 

May 2016

(Ragland is )Not as talented as former Alabama ILB and current Cowboy Rolando McClain.

 

So basically no way he will ever hold a candle to Ray Lewis.

 

Rex is hoping for another David Harris. Also doubtful but a better comp.

 

Should have just passed on trading for an $8M RB and paid David Harris the extra $1M per to leave the Jets and follow him to Buffalo.

 

That was the formula that worked in NY with Bart Scott following him from the Ravens. Preston Brown and Bradhams struggles communicating defensive adjustments played a huge part in sinking last season.

 

--------

 

October 2016

 

As for Harris........I wasn't a proponent of signing him in FA.........my point was that they blamed the defensive issues on communication and if Harris was the key to not blowing what should have been a playoff season in 2015.....then they should have paid him ahead of warty stars like Harvin, Hammy McCoy or Charles Clay.

 

Horse......then cart.

 

I never thought Harris was actually needed..........if it wasn't obvious then it is much clearer now that they simply did a sh*t job of preparing the D in the 8 months leading up to the 2015 season.........but Preston Brown was scapegoated for it and Harris WAS available so they don't really have a leg to stand on IMO as far as that excuse is concerned.

 

 

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

In the past 20 years the Peyton Manning Colts are the ONLY organization that has rose to any sustained success from bottoming out............the easiest way to greatness is from a start at .500 type level.  

 

Bills fans have often lamented mediocrity as a reason for not being able to take the next step but that's always been BS.

 

The Bills are in a perfect position to take the next step...........but contrary to the retro-active narrative they actually were there under Marrone and Ryan as well...................you gotta' make the right moves to take the next step but it's there for the taking.

San Fran picked ahead of last year. Feel like they bottomed out and got good value for it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

San Fran picked ahead of last year. Feel like they bottomed out and got good value for it. 

 

 

Jacksonville also tanked for 5 years.......and then had a 4th quarter lead in the AFC Championship game in New England.

 

But then there were the next 2 seasons.

 

Like I said.......since Indy in 1998 nobody has tanked and gone from there to SUSTAINED success.

 

Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks, Packers, Ravens........these teams have been the most consistent contenders of the first two decades of this century and have won 12 of the first 20 Super Bowls.........and they never tanked.